ACUS01 KWNS 010550
SWODY1
SPC AC 010548

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts, large hail and a few
tornadoes are likely across the southern and central Plains this
afternoon and evening. Isolated strong to severe storms are also
possible from parts of the Ohio Valley, central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic.

...Southern and Central Plains...

A mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly eastward across the
Desert Southwest today and into the southern Rockies. At the
surface, a moist airmass will be in place across the southern
Plains. A quasi-stationary front will be located from near Childress northeastward into southeast Kansas, with a dryline extending
southward into west-central Texas. To the southeast of the front,
surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will contribute to
moderate instability by afternoon, with MLCAPE increasing into the
2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Convective initiation will take place in
the late afternoon along the front and dryline, with a broken line
of strong to severe storms moving eastward across the southern and
central Plains.

In addition to a favorable thermodynamic environment, deep-layer
shear will gradually improve over the southern Plains as the
mid-level trough approaches. RAP forecast soundings in western
Oklahoma increase 0-6 km shear from about 25 knots at 21Z to near 40
knots at 00Z, suggesting that environment will support supercell
development in the late afternoon. Lapse rates in the 7 to 7.5 C/km
range will be favorable for large hail with supercells, and
hailstones greater than 2 inches will be possible. In addition, a
tornado threat is expected to develop as low-level shear ramps up
during the late afternoon and early evening. Any supercell that can
form far enough away from other storms to maintain a relative long
life cycle will be favored to produce tornadoes. If any supercell
can become intense, then a strong tornado will be possible.
Otherwise, cells are forecast to congeal into a line and move
eastward across northwest Texas, west-central Oklahoma, eastern
Kansas and western Missouri during the evening. The stronger storms
within this line should be associated with severe wind gusts and
isolated large hail. A QLCS tornado threat will also be likely,
especially within the more intense bowing line segments.

Further south into southwest Texas, isolated supercells with large
hail are expected to develop to the east of a dryline. This threat
should persist into the early to mid evening. A few strong wind
gusts will also be possible.

...Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic...

West-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over much of the
eastern U.S. today. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front will be
located in the Ohio Valley from southern Indiana east-northeastward
into far southern Pennsylvania. Surface dewpoints in the upper 50s
and lower 60s F to the south of the front will contribute to weak
instability by early afternoon. Increasing low-level convergence
near the front and warming surface temperatures will result in
scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon. Several short line
segments are expected to form and move eastward across the Ohio
Valley into the central Appalachians. 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 35
knot range and steep low-level lapse rates will support isolated
severe storms with potential for damaging wind gusts. A low-end
tornado threat will also be possible.

..Broyles/Squitieri.. 04/01/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 100601
SWODY1
SPC AC 100559

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms with potential for large
hail in excess of two inches in diameter, a few strong tornadoes and
damaging winds with gusts over 75 mph are expected this afternoon
and evening across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and Midwest.

...Upper Mississippi Valley/Midwest...

At mid-levels, a trough will move eastward into the central and
northern Plains today, as the exit region of a jet streak
overspreads the upper Mississippi Valley and Midwest. At the
surface, a cold front will advance eastward across the northern
Plains with a warm front moving into the western Great Lakes.
Between these two fronts, a very moist airmass will be in place with
surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F. Early in the day, a
line of strong thunderstorms is expected to develop in western Iowa
near the western edge of the moist airmass. A potential for severe
wind gusts will be possible with this line. Eastward across the
moist sector, moderate to strong instability is expected to develop
by midday as surface temperatures warm. This will help the line to
grow upscale, potentially into a linear MCS, as it moves across
southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois early this afternoon.
Severe wind gusts and QLCS tornadoes will be possible along the
stronger parts of this line segment.

In the wake of the initial line segment, instability is expected to
increase as moisture advection and surface heating take place. An
instability axis is forecast to develop in the afternoon from
eastern Missouri northward into eastern Iowa, where MLCAPE should
increase into the 3000 to 3500 J/kg range. Thunderstorm development
will be likely during the mid to late afternoon along a zone of
low-level convergence from northern Missouri into central and
eastern Iowa. Additional storms are expected to form further north
into parts of far eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. RAP
forecast soundings in the late afternoon from eastern Iowa into
southwest Wisconsin have curved hodographs, with 0-6 km shear near
40 knots, and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 225 m2/s2. This
environment will support supercells with tornado potential. A strong
tornado or two will be possible as supercells move eastward in a
strengthening low-level jet during the late afternoon and early
evening. Large hail and wind damage will also be possible with
supercells. From this cluster, a second severe line segment with
damaging wind gusts is expected to develop. This line will likely
impact parts of northeast Missouri and north-central Illinois.

Further southwest across parts of northwest/north-central Missouri
and northeast Kansas, scattered thunderstorm development is expected
during the late afternoon and early evening. These storms will be
located near an axis of strong instability, along which RAP
forecasts suggest that 0-6 km shear will be in around 40 knots. In
addition 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 7.5 C/km.
The environment should support large hail and severe wind gusts.

...Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians...

A moist and unstable airmass will be in place today across much of
the region, with surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F.
Although large-scale ascent will be weak, isolated thunderstorms
appear likely to develop in areas where low-level convergence
becomes maximized. Forecast soundings across the Ohio Valley show
steep low-level lapse rates during the afternoon and have enough
deep-layer shear for a localized severe threat. A few of the
stronger cells could produce isolated severe gust and hail.

..Broyles/Lyons.. 06/10/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 261301
SWODY1
SPC AC 261259

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, damaging
winds (possibly 75+ mph), and tornado risk are expected from the
upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes southwestward into
Nebraska, mainly this afternoon and tonight.

...Upper Midwest and Great Lakes...
Have upgraded portions of the region to an Enhanced Risk including
Wisconsin and nearby far eastern Minnesota and Upper Michigan. An
upper ridge will remain anchored from the Southwest into the
central Rockies and High Plains through tonight. Seasonably
strong northwesterly flow aloft will overspread a very warm, moist,
and unstable environment from parts of the Upper Midwest and Great
Lakes into the central Plains.

Aided by favorably-timed MCV/mid-level impulse, the most likely
initiation zone for diurnal storm development is expected to be
across northern Minnesota into Wisconsin. Initial intense supercell
development is expected in this zone, posing a threat of large to
very large hail, localized severe wind gusts, and potentially at
least some tornado risk. Upscale growth into one or more intense
wind-producing southeastward-moving clusters are expected into this
evening amidst the enhanced northwesterly flow aloft.

...Middle Mississippi Valley...
Residual MCV influences may semi-focus renewed thunderstorm
development into a very unstable environment this afternoon
regionally, with potential storm organization aided by semi-strong mid/high-level winds for the season. Damaging winds would likely be
the most probable concern as storms potentially cluster and spread south-southeastward.

...Nebraska/eastern South Dakota/western Iowa...
A somewhat separate area of potential severe-storm development is
expected from parts of central Nebraska into southeast South Dakota.
Initiation is expected near a weak surface trough as temperatures
warm to near/above 100 F as CINH erodes. MLCAPE of near/above 1500
J/kg and effective shear of 30-40 kt will favor development of a few
organized cells and/or clusters. Severe gusts of 60-80 mph appear to
be the most likely hazard within the hot/well-mixed environment.
Isolated hail may also occur with any supercell, even with rather
warm temperatures aloft.

...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas/Georgia/north Florida...
A seasonably deep upper trough will persist across much of the
eastern CONUS today. A modest increase in northwesterly mid-level
winds are expected from the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas, Georgia
and northern Florida.

Relatively cool conditions, weak lapse rates, and the potential
influence of smoke will temper destabilization across the Mid
Atlantic. However, MLCAPE increasing to near 1000 J/kg amid 25-35 kt
of effective shear may support occasional storm organization, with a
primary threat of locally damaging winds.

Stronger heating/destabilization is expected farther south across
the Carolinas into Georgia and Florida. Deep-layer flow/shear will
be somewhat weaker compared to areas farther north, but may still be
sufficient for transient storm organization and a localized
damaging-wind threat.

...Southern Montana/northern Wyoming/Black Hills...
High-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon along
the northern periphery of the upper ridge, with the greatest storm
coverage expected across parts of northern Wyoming and southern
Montana. Overall buoyancy is expected to remain weak, but inverted-v
profiles will support a threat of strong to localized severe gusts
as storms spread eastward toward the Black Hills before weakening
into mid/late evening.

..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/26/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)