ACUS01 KWNS 021957
SWODY1
SPC AC 021956

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026

Valid 022000Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes remain
probable across parts of eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and
southern Wisconsin this afternoon and evening. Additionally,
damaging thunderstorm winds will be possible from eastern Iowa
northeast into Michigan.

...20z Update IA, IL, MO and southern WI...

Rapid air mass modification is underway to the south of a warm front
lifting northward across the western Great Lakes and upper Midwest.
Clearing beneath the advancing mid-level dry slot may allow
temperatures to warm into the low 70s, with surface dewpoints near
60 F. This will support weak buoyancy amid very strong shear
profiles (0-1 km SRH >300 m2/s2) from observed VADs and regional RAOBs.

Scattered thunderstorms and supercells ongoing over northern MO and
southern IA should mature and present a severe hazard over much of
the ENH area as they spread northeastward through this evening. A
few tornadoes (some strong and fast moving), hail and damaging gusts
are expected. Additional storms may develop within the warm conveyor
belt farther east across IL this afternoon/evening. Upscale growth
into one or more clusters with damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes
is the primary concern.

The main change with the 20z update was to trim thunderstorm and
severe probabilities to the west of the advancing cold front. See
the prior discussion for more information.

..Lyons.. 04/02/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026/

...IA/IL/MO/WI...

Morning water vapor imagery shows a strong shortwave trough over
northeast KS, with an associated mid-level jet and dry-slot rotating
around the base of the trough into western MO. A deep surface low
currently south of OMA will track northeastward across IA this
afternoon, with a tight gradient of low-level moisture and
instability along the track of the low. Very strong low-level shear
and sufficient CAPE in the warm sector will pose a risk of
fast-moving supercells capable of damaging winds, tornadoes
(possibly strong), and hail. The area of greatest concern is over
eastern IA into northern IL and far southern WI. Perhaps the
biggest forecast uncertainty is the widespread cloud cover and
limited diurnal destabilization, but the approaching dry slot may
compensate by mid-afternoon and allow a period of afternoon heating.

The coverage of storms with southward extent is uncertain across
eastern MO and central/southern IL. Recent CAM solutions continue
to show only widely scattered discrete development across this
corridor. However, given the forecast of strong low-level shear and
favorable synoptic forcing, those storms that do form would pose a
risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes.

...Eastern IL/IN/Lower MI...

Strong southerly low-level winds will maintain 60s dewpoints across
eastern IL/western IN, and result in the warm front lifting
northward into southern Lower MI by this evening. This will provide
a favorable environment for a few severe storms capable of damaging
winds and perhaps a few tornadoes.

$$


--- ScorpioWeb v0.22a (Linux/x86_64)
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 292002
SWODY1
SPC AC 292000

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Valid 292000Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are forecast from parts of Texas to the Gulf
Coast states today. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging
winds are the primary risks, with giant hail possible in parts of
south-central Texas.

...20Z Update...
The primary change with this update was the addition of an Enhanced
Risk for portions of the Edwards Plateau into south-central TX --
driven by a CIG2 (intensity level 2/2) hail area. The latest visible
satellite imagery indicates an agitated boundary-layer cumulus field
evolving east of Fort Stockton in Crockett County, where attempts at
isolated convective initiation are underway. Current thinking is
that continued diurnal heating of a moist air mass (lower 70s
dewpoints) and upslope flow enhancements will result in isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening.
Current thinking is that storms will track/develop southeastward
into a corridor of strong to extreme buoyancy -- driven by steep
midlevel lapse rates (around 8.5 C/km per 12Z DRT sounding) atop the destabilizing PBL. This, combined with a long/straight hodograph
(60-70 kt of effective shear) and modest forcing for ascent will
favor intense discrete/splitting supercells. Given the modest
forcing for ascent, it is unclear how many storms will form in this
corridor, though any sustained supercells will pose a risk of very
large to giant hail (3-4+ inches in diameter).

..Weinman.. 04/29/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026/

...Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast...

Satellite imagery late this morning indicates high momentum
quasi-zonal flow from TX eastward across the central Gulf Coast. An
upstream perturbation over Chihuahua is forecast to move quickly
east today reaching central TX late this afternoon. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms are forecast to increase in
coverage/intensity mainly along/near a surface front draped from
west-central TX to southern AR. A moisture-rich airmass featuring
lower 70s deg F surface dewpoints south of the front, coupled with a
plume of 8 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates and some diurnal heating,
will contribute to 2000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE decreasing with east extent.

A few initial thunderstorms clusters north of the surface front over
TX are expected to gradually intensify through early afternoon. The
moderate to very unstable airmass will combine with elongated/nearly
straight hodographs to support supercell development with the
stronger updrafts and an associated risk for large to very large
hail (1 to 3 inches in diameter). Have extended the 15-percent hail
and CIG1 hail delineation farther east into northeast TX and western
LA. For short-term forecast details, please refer to MCD #615.
Eventually upscale growth into one or more clusters is expected to
evolve across LA into the central Gulf Coast states later this
afternoon. Damaging gusts and an isolated risk for large hail will
be the primary hazards with the stronger storms.

Farther west, isolated to widely scattered intense storm development
is forecast across the Edwards Plateau this afternoon. This
activity may eventually focus closer to the Rio Grande later this
evening with a large to very large hail threat persisting well after dark.

...Upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic/North Carolina...

Within large-scale upper troughing over the Great Lakes/Midwest, an
embedded mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward across
the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening in tandem with an
eastward-moving surface cold front. Only modest boundary layer
moisture is present across the region, with surface dewpoints
generally in the 50s. Forecast soundings over western PA show some
low-level hodograph curvature within a moist environment. Main
uncertainty across the upper OH Valley is the magnitude of
destabilization in this area given ongoing scattered showers and
widespread cloud cover. Nonetheless, a couple of stronger storms
could yield an isolated risk for wind damage and perhaps a brief
tornado later this afternoon, especially near/southeast of a weak
surface low. Farther south, isolated wind/hail will be possible
with the stronger thunderstorms through the late afternoon/early evening.

$$


--- ScorpioWeb v0.32a (Linux/x86_64)
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 111954
SWODY1
SPC AC 111953

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Valid 112000Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDWEST...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS...

...SUMMARY...
Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes region,
including far eastern Iowa, northern Missouri, northern/central
Illinois, southern Wisconsin, Lower Michigan, and northern Indiana.
This includes the potential for widespread/intense damaging winds
(some 75+ mph), large hail, and several tornadoes, some of which may
be strong to intense.

...20z Update...
The previous forecast remains mostly on track with only minor
adjustments made. Across the Midwest, latest GOES imagery shows
gradual clearing across southern IA/northern MO/western IL behind a
decaying MCS. Surface observations across southern IA show some
degree of air mass recovery is ongoing; however, the quality of
destabilization with northeastward extent remains very uncertain
given more extensive cloud cover, additional precipitation, and the
rapid approach of the cold front from the west.

Nonetheless, regional 18z RAOBs and VWPs are sampling the approach
of a 60-70 knot mid-level jet, which heralds the onset of stronger
synoptic ascent across the upper MS Valley. Southerly low-level flow
should strengthen through the evening in response to increasing
ascent, which will likely help advect higher theta-e air
north/northeastward as well as begin to augment low-level SRH.
Recent MRMS composites show the onset of convective initiation along
the cold front, which should maintain sufficient residence time
within the returning theta-e plume for further strengthening over
the coming hours. Latest high-res ensemble guidance (including WoFS
and time-lagged HRRR/RRFS solutions) appear to be capturing these
trends well and continue to depict the corridor of highest severe
wind and tornado threat across the Moderate risk zone. As such,
little change was made to the ongoing probability and intensity contours.

...Upper OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic...

Several loosely organized convective bands have emerged across
eastern OH into western PA/NY. Regional VWPs continue to sample
deep-layer bulk shear on the order of 15-20 knots, which casts doubt
on the eastward extent of the severe wind threat beyond 00-02 UTC
when nocturnal stabilization will begin to weaken convection. Recent
CAM guidance suggests the peak wind threat should remain across
western to central PA/NY, which casts considerable uncertainty on
severe wind coverage further east along the Mid-Atlantic coast.
Consequently, the 30% wind probabilities have been shifted west to
better align with recent observed and modeled trends. (See MCDs
#1091 and #1092 for additional details.)

...Southern Plains...

Recent surface observations show the cold front rapidly pushing
southeast across TX, OK, and southeast KS. Building cumulus is also
noted along the front, which suggests convective initiation is
probable in the coming hours. These trends align with the previous
forecast, see MCD #1090 for additional short-term details.

..Moore.. 06/11/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026/

...Midwest/Great Lakes...

An active and impactful severe weather event is still expected
across parts of the Midwest Great Lakes later this afternoon and
evening. Ongoing bowing cluster across southeast IA/northwest
IL/southwest WI and vicinity may continue to pose at least some
severe wind and embedded QLCS tornado threat as it continues
east-northeastward across parts of the Midwest this afternoon. There
is still airmass recovery underway ahead of this activity,
especially into central/northern IL, northern IN, and parts of
southern Lower MI where strong heating is occurring. Enhanced
mid-level west-southwesterly winds associated with a potent
shortwave trough over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will
overspread the developing warm sector this afternoon, and support
organized severe potential, including the possibility of multiple
tornadic supercells and widespread severe/damaging winds.

Even so, greater than usual uncertainty exists regarding
redevelopment later today on the southern/western flank of ongoing
convection across northern IL into northeast MO and vicinity. A
gradual increase in both low-level and deep-layer shear is
anticipated across this area as a 30-40+ kt southerly low-level jet
develops eastward in tandem with the eastward-ejecting shortwave
trough and mid-level jet. A mix of supercells and bowing segments
appears probable as renewed thunderstorms develop along/ahead of the
surface cold front this afternoon in a strongly unstable and rather
favorably sheared environment. If at least semi-discrete supercell
structures can be maintained, then potential exists for several
tornadoes, and multiple strong to intense tornadoes (EF-2/3+) given
the enhanced low-level shear. Isolated large to very large hail may
also occur with any sustained supercells.

Otherwise, numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds
also appear likely through the period across parts of
northern/central IL into southern Lower MI and northern IN. Both the
ongoing cluster and eventual upscale growth of convection that
develops this afternoon will likely produce severe/damaging winds,
some of which could be significant (75+ mph). The northern extent of
the severe risk into WI and northern Lower MI remains uncertain, but
at least some wind and/or tornado threat will likely continue with
eastward extent into the southern Great Lakes and northern IN this evening.

...Eastern Kansas/Southern Missouri into the Southern Plains...

Additional thunderstorms will likely develop this afternoon and
evening along the trailing cold front into portions of eastern
KS/southern MO into the southern Plains. Stronger deep-layer shear
is forecast to lag behind/to the north of the cold front. Still,
around 20-30 kt of effective bulk shear and moderate to strong
instability will support marginal supercell structures and loosely
organized multicells capable of producing both large hail and
damaging winds. A large component of boundary-parallel shear will
likely lead to clustering and messy convective modes through the
evening before thunderstorms gradually weaken with the loss of
daytime heating.

...Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians...

Recent visible satellite imagery across much of the Mid-Atlantic and
central Appalachians shows mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions,
with ample low-level moisture present per latest surface
observations and area 12Z observed soundings. Large-scale ascent
associated with multiple low-amplitude mid-level shortwave troughs
will likely support the development of widely scattered
thunderstorms by afternoon across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the
central Appalachians. Though deep-layer shear is forecast to remain
modest, moderate to strong instability will exist with continued
diurnal heating this afternoon. This will support stronger updrafts
capable of scattered severe/damaging winds and perhaps isolated
hail. Multiple clusters should eventually emerge, with potential for
organizing along outflow/cold pools, and more focused corridors of
damaging winds possible across parts of the I-95 corridor from
northern VA to eastern PA and NJ.

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 272002
SWODY1
SPC AC 272000

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Valid 272000Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely today across the northern High
Plains including northeast Wyoming and eastern Montana into the
western Dakotas, with storms capable of very large hail, very strong
outflow winds (80+ mph), and tornadoes late this afternoon into tonight.

...20Z Update...
The previous forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments
were made with this update. The ENH risk was expanded slightly
southwestward in northeastern WY, where several discrete supercell
have evolved off the Bighorn Mountains -- posing a risk of large to
very large hail.

In western ND, the CIG1 tornado area was extended slightly
northward. Continued diurnal heating amid upper 60s dewpoints will
yield moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy and minimal inhibition.
Backed surface winds beneath strengthening flow aloft will
contribute to favorably curved hodographs. Any storms that can form
or move into this environment will conditionally support a strong tornado.

Farther east, the SLGT risk was expanded northward in the lower OH
Valley. Here, diurnal heating/destabilization of a very moist air
mass (upper 70s dewpoints) will continue to support loosely
organized thunderstorm clusters capable of producing widely
scattered damaging winds this afternoon.

..Weinman.. 06/27/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026/

...Northern High Plains this afternoon into tonight...
A rather active severe-weather scenario is anticipated regionally
later today, including the potential for intense/locally significant
severe storms. A lead shortwave trough/speed max will continue to
approach through late today, with the exit region of a strong
upper-level jet overspreading the region including 50+ kt
southwesterlies above 5km AGL. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s F
will continue to spread northward regionally, to the east of a
deepening surface low across northeast Wyoming toward the far
western Dakotas, and a sharpening lee trough/dryline across a more
prevalent north/south extent of the High Plains. This low-level
moistening will occur beneath a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates
emanating from the Great Basin and north-central Rockies.

Initial surface-based development is expected near the surface
low/trough near the Big Horn Mountains toward the
Wyoming/Montana/North Dakota border vicinity. The maturing stronger
initial storms will almost certainly be supercellular owing to
moderate to large CAPE and a strong wind field. The risk for large
to very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) is greatest near this aforementioned border region where supercells are forecast early in
the convective life cycle, although additional/somewhat more
discrete development will also likely occur a bit later farther
southeastward across northwest South Dakota.

A few tornadoes are also possible particularly in the more
moisture-rich environment near the surface triple point, but
relatively large temperature-dewpoint spreads and a transition to
upscale growth may temper the tornado threat, particularly with
northward extent either side of the Montana/North Dakota border
vicinity. As more storms develop leading to storm mergers and
coalescing outflow, a linear cluster will likely develop into a maturing/accelerating bow echo into western North Dakota this
evening, with significant/intense thunderstorm winds (80+ mph) possible.

Severe storms will likely develop eastward tonight across the
Dakotas, and prior to that, diurnally enhanced, but more isolated
intense, development is plausible as far south as western Nebraska
with large hail and damaging winds.

...Northern Intermountain West including northern UT/western WY...
Influenced by a lead shortwave trough/speed max associated with the
prominent upper-level trough centered over the Pacific Northwest,
strong to locally severe thunderstorm potential will probably exist
early today. The prolifically strong wind field and modest
destabilization will tend to focus today across northern Utah,
southeast Idaho into western Wyoming, including the Star Valley
vicinity. Severe-caliber wind gusts and some hail may occur.

...Mid-South/Tennessee/southern Kentucky to North Carolina...
Multiple MCVs, including across far south-central Missouri and
southeast Kansas at midday, will influence the region as they
progress east-southward generally toward Kentucky and Tennessee.
Related flow enhancement is evident in regional WSR-88d VWP data,
and particularly in the 12z Lamont, OK observed sounding (40+ kt
4-9km AGL). See Mesoscale Discussion 1346 for additional short-term details.

These MCVs will influence and semi-focus thunderstorm development
within a moist and increasingly unstable boundary layer from the
southeast Missouri/northeast Arkansas border vicinity into Kentucky
and Tennessee. This includes the possibility of some supercells and well-organized clusters in the presence of 35-40 kt effective shear.
Pockets of wind damage will be the most common risk, but some
tornado potential will exist as well. Additional severe storms
capable of wind damage are also expected farther eastward into the
Carolinas this afternoon through around mid-evening.

...Texas Panhandle/West Texas late this afternoon/evening...
Though forcing for ascent will be weak at best this far south,
strong surface heating/mixing along the lee trough/dryline could
support high-based thunderstorm development late this afternoon.
Inverted-V profiles will favor the potential for isolated severe
outflow gusts of 60-75 mph.

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)