ACUS01 KWNS 271241
SWODY1
SPC AC 271239

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Valid 271300Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected today from North Carolina and
Virginia into the Ozark Plateau, but no severe threat is forecast.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Recent surface analysis places an extensive cold front from just off
the northern Mid-Atlantic southwestward through the TN Valley and
into west TX. This front is expected to continue surging southward/southeastward today as a large area of high pressure
builds into the Plains. This progression will take the front off
both the Carolina/Southeast Coast and the TX/Central Gulf Coast by
early tomorrow morning, leaving only the FL Peninsula within the
pre-frontal warm sector.

The airmass preceding the front will be modestly moist, with
dewpoints largely in the upper 50s/low 60s. When combined with
modest daytime heating, this should be enough low/mid-level moisture
to foster limited buoyancy across VA and the Carolinas, supporting
the potential for thunderstorms as the front moves through. Some
isolated surface-based development is possible along the front, but
the progressive nature of the front will lead to undercutting and
limited residence time in the warm sector. Mid-levels will not be
particularly cold but should still be sufficient for limited
elevated buoyancy behind the front. Consequently, additional
thunderstorms will remain possible behind the front as large-scale
ascent increases. NC will be on the southern edge of the stronger
flow aloft, and deep-layer vertical shear will be strong enough to
support rotating updrafts and a conditional severe risk. However,
given only modest buoyancy and relatively warm thermodynamic
profiles, most updrafts will likely be transient and shallow, not
acquiring the necessary depth and persistence to organize. Best
chance for a strong storm capable of damaging gusts is in the
vicinity of GSO and RDU in northwest NC, where slightly improved
thermodynamic are possible.

Farther southwest, some deeper convective is possible well behind
the front this afternoon as the subtle shortwave trough currently
moving into OK moves through the Ozark Plateau amid modest elevated
buoyancy. Resulting convection should be transient and shallow, but
could still augment the strong low-level flow to produce damaging
gusts. A few lightning flashes are possible with the deepest cores.

..Mosier/Marsh.. 03/27/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 281225
SWODY1
SPC AC 281223

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0723 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon across the
southern Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys, but no severe threat is forecast.

...Synopsis...
Early-morning surface analysis shows an extensive area of high
pressure covering much of the central and eastern CONUS, the only
exception being across eastern MT where a weak lee low is in place.
Another weak low exists over southern NV, along an inverted trough
that extends from the central Gulf of California into central NV.

A weak frontal boundary separates the dry and stable continental
airmass associated with the high pressure from the more moist,
tropical airmass over the Gulf and central/southern FL Peninsula.
Strong heating and modest buoyancy will support showers and
thunderstorms along and south of this boundary during the afternoon
and evening, fostered by both convergence along the front and a westward-progressing sea breeze. Limited buoyancy and weak shear
should preclude storm organization, keeping the severe risk
isolated. Even so, relatively high LCLs and steep low-level lapse
rates could still support strong downbursts. Thunderstorms are not
expected elsewhere across the CONUS.

..Mosier/Marsh.. 03/28/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 291228
SWODY1
SPC AC 291226

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0726 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Valid 291300Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated non-severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening across parts of Arizona, far southern Louisiana and in south Florida.

...Synopsis...
Surface ridging currently centered over the Mid-Atlantic and
covering much of the eastern CONUS is forecast to shift
northeastward into the western Atlantic today as mid-level flow
trends more westerly and surface pressure lowers over the Plains.
Strengthening pressure gradient between the Plains troughing and the
western Atlantic ridge will support moderate southerly low-level
flow and modest moisture advection across the central and southern
Plains. By early tomorrow (Monday), mid 50s dewpoints will likely
extend from south-central OK into the Mid-South, with 60s dewpoints
extending from central TX through the Lower MS Valley.

Despite this increasing low-level moisture, warm temperatures aloft
and negligible large-scale ascent will preclude thunderstorm
development. Only thunderstorm chances across the CONUS today will
be across central/southern AZ, south FL, and a small part the
southeast LA Coast. Across south FL a weakening front and associated
low-level convergence will combine with warm and moist conditions to
support isolated thunderstorms. A few thunderstorms are also
possible over the southeast LA coast in the confluent low-level
southeasterly flow rounding the base of the surface ridging.

Predominantly dry thunderstorms are anticipated across
central/southern AZ where strong heating and deep mixing will occur
beneath modest mid-level moisture emanating from the eastern
Pacific. Given the high LCLs and steep low-level lapse rates, strong
downbursts are possible. However, limited updraft strength and
persistence should temper the overall severe potential.

..Mosier/Marsh.. 03/29/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 311237
SWODY1
SPC AC 311236

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Valid 311300Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES...AND ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and large
hail are expected today from the Mid Mississippi Valley across the
Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Isolated severe storms capable
of large hail and damaging gusts are possible across western
Oklahoma and far northwest Texas as well.

...Synopsis...
Upper pattern is forecast to trend away from its previously more
zonal configuration towards more amplification today as the general
pattern begins to become more active. Several shortwave troughs are
expected across the CONUS today, combining with an expansive warm
sector to support an extensive stretch of strong to severe
thunderstorms from the southern High Plains into the Northeast.
Thunderstorms are also possible within the moist and confluent flow
from the Gulf Coast into the southern Appalachians and the
anonymously moist airmass across the Southwest. Additionally,
thunderstorms are possible during the second half of the period from
northern CA through the Great Basin as shortwave trough moves
quickly eastward across the region overnight.

...Mid/Upper MS Valley across the southern Great Lakes and OH Valley
into the Northeast...

Recent surface analysis places a low near the IA/WI border vicinity,
with perhaps another weak low farther southwest across southwest IA.
A warm front extends eastward from the IA/WI border surface low
across southern WI and southern Lower MI. Showers and thunderstorms
occurred overnight along and north of this boundary, with the
primary remnants currently over southwestern ON towards western NY.
Additional thunderstorm development is beginning to the northwest of
the IA/WI border surface low as well as farther south within the
warm sector across northern IL. This activity is likely supported by
a combination of persistent warm-air advection and ascent linked to
a subtle shortwave trough moving through IA. Most guidance suggests
this activity, particularly the IL cluster, increases in coverage
and intensity over the next several hours as it continues eastward
across Lower MI and eventually into western PA/western NY. Some
intensification of the convective remnants moving across southwest
ON is possible as well. Robust deep-layer westerly flow amid at
least modest buoyancy will support damaging gusts as the primary
severe risk with these clusters. There is also enough low-level
curvature to support a low-probability tornado risk, particularly
along the southwest flanks of the IL and ON clusters where a more
cell-in-line convective mode is possible. A line-embedded
circulation could also occur if these clusters can become more organized.

How these clusters evolve, in particular the strength of any
outflow, will dictate the extent of airmass recovery in their wake.
This is particularly true across the OH Valley where much of the
guidance suggests another round of thunderstorms is possible along a
cold front forecast to move across the region this evening. Current
expectation is that the airmass will support strong to severe
thunderstorms, especially from central IN into central IL where the
influence of antecedent convection should be minimal. Steep lapse
rates and moderate shear will support a hail risk with the initially
more cellular development along the front. A trend towards a more
linear mode is anticipated thereafter, with undercutting by the cold
front likely as well.

Lastly, elevated thunderstorms are expected overnight from northern
MO into southern IA and central IL amid steep lapse rates and a
strengthening low-level jet. Marginally severe hail is possible with
this activity as well.

...Central/Southern Plains...

Recent surface analysis places a low over southwest KS, with a
dryline extending southwestward from this low through southeast NM
into Far West TX. This low is forecast to shift southeastward along
the leading edge of a cold front pushing southward into the TX
Panhandle and western OK, with its associated dryline gradually
shifting eastward. Increasing low-level moisture and strong heating
will help destabilize the airmass ahead of the front and surface
low. Low-level convergence along the front/dryline, and particularly
near the surface low, will support convective initiation. Vertical
shear will be sufficient for storm organization and a few supercells
are possible. Steep lapse rates and strong shear in the
cloud-bearing layer suggest large hail is possible early in the
convective cycle, while high LCLs suggest a trend toward strong
downbursts thereafter.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 03/31/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)