ACUS01 KWNS 271241
SWODY1
SPC AC 271239

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Valid 271300Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected today from North Carolina and
Virginia into the Ozark Plateau, but no severe threat is forecast.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Recent surface analysis places an extensive cold front from just off
the northern Mid-Atlantic southwestward through the TN Valley and
into west TX. This front is expected to continue surging southward/southeastward today as a large area of high pressure
builds into the Plains. This progression will take the front off
both the Carolina/Southeast Coast and the TX/Central Gulf Coast by
early tomorrow morning, leaving only the FL Peninsula within the
pre-frontal warm sector.

The airmass preceding the front will be modestly moist, with
dewpoints largely in the upper 50s/low 60s. When combined with
modest daytime heating, this should be enough low/mid-level moisture
to foster limited buoyancy across VA and the Carolinas, supporting
the potential for thunderstorms as the front moves through. Some
isolated surface-based development is possible along the front, but
the progressive nature of the front will lead to undercutting and
limited residence time in the warm sector. Mid-levels will not be
particularly cold but should still be sufficient for limited
elevated buoyancy behind the front. Consequently, additional
thunderstorms will remain possible behind the front as large-scale
ascent increases. NC will be on the southern edge of the stronger
flow aloft, and deep-layer vertical shear will be strong enough to
support rotating updrafts and a conditional severe risk. However,
given only modest buoyancy and relatively warm thermodynamic
profiles, most updrafts will likely be transient and shallow, not
acquiring the necessary depth and persistence to organize. Best
chance for a strong storm capable of damaging gusts is in the
vicinity of GSO and RDU in northwest NC, where slightly improved
thermodynamic are possible.

Farther southwest, some deeper convective is possible well behind
the front this afternoon as the subtle shortwave trough currently
moving into OK moves through the Ozark Plateau amid modest elevated
buoyancy. Resulting convection should be transient and shallow, but
could still augment the strong low-level flow to produce damaging
gusts. A few lightning flashes are possible with the deepest cores.

..Mosier/Marsh.. 03/27/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 281225
SWODY1
SPC AC 281223

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0723 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon across the
southern Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys, but no severe threat is forecast.

...Synopsis...
Early-morning surface analysis shows an extensive area of high
pressure covering much of the central and eastern CONUS, the only
exception being across eastern MT where a weak lee low is in place.
Another weak low exists over southern NV, along an inverted trough
that extends from the central Gulf of California into central NV.

A weak frontal boundary separates the dry and stable continental
airmass associated with the high pressure from the more moist,
tropical airmass over the Gulf and central/southern FL Peninsula.
Strong heating and modest buoyancy will support showers and
thunderstorms along and south of this boundary during the afternoon
and evening, fostered by both convergence along the front and a westward-progressing sea breeze. Limited buoyancy and weak shear
should preclude storm organization, keeping the severe risk
isolated. Even so, relatively high LCLs and steep low-level lapse
rates could still support strong downbursts. Thunderstorms are not
expected elsewhere across the CONUS.

..Mosier/Marsh.. 03/28/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 291228
SWODY1
SPC AC 291226

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0726 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Valid 291300Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated non-severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening across parts of Arizona, far southern Louisiana and in south Florida.

...Synopsis...
Surface ridging currently centered over the Mid-Atlantic and
covering much of the eastern CONUS is forecast to shift
northeastward into the western Atlantic today as mid-level flow
trends more westerly and surface pressure lowers over the Plains.
Strengthening pressure gradient between the Plains troughing and the
western Atlantic ridge will support moderate southerly low-level
flow and modest moisture advection across the central and southern
Plains. By early tomorrow (Monday), mid 50s dewpoints will likely
extend from south-central OK into the Mid-South, with 60s dewpoints
extending from central TX through the Lower MS Valley.

Despite this increasing low-level moisture, warm temperatures aloft
and negligible large-scale ascent will preclude thunderstorm
development. Only thunderstorm chances across the CONUS today will
be across central/southern AZ, south FL, and a small part the
southeast LA Coast. Across south FL a weakening front and associated
low-level convergence will combine with warm and moist conditions to
support isolated thunderstorms. A few thunderstorms are also
possible over the southeast LA coast in the confluent low-level
southeasterly flow rounding the base of the surface ridging.

Predominantly dry thunderstorms are anticipated across
central/southern AZ where strong heating and deep mixing will occur
beneath modest mid-level moisture emanating from the eastern
Pacific. Given the high LCLs and steep low-level lapse rates, strong
downbursts are possible. However, limited updraft strength and
persistence should temper the overall severe potential.

..Mosier/Marsh.. 03/29/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 311237
SWODY1
SPC AC 311236

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Valid 311300Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES...AND ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and large
hail are expected today from the Mid Mississippi Valley across the
Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Isolated severe storms capable
of large hail and damaging gusts are possible across western
Oklahoma and far northwest Texas as well.

...Synopsis...
Upper pattern is forecast to trend away from its previously more
zonal configuration towards more amplification today as the general
pattern begins to become more active. Several shortwave troughs are
expected across the CONUS today, combining with an expansive warm
sector to support an extensive stretch of strong to severe
thunderstorms from the southern High Plains into the Northeast.
Thunderstorms are also possible within the moist and confluent flow
from the Gulf Coast into the southern Appalachians and the
anonymously moist airmass across the Southwest. Additionally,
thunderstorms are possible during the second half of the period from
northern CA through the Great Basin as shortwave trough moves
quickly eastward across the region overnight.

...Mid/Upper MS Valley across the southern Great Lakes and OH Valley
into the Northeast...

Recent surface analysis places a low near the IA/WI border vicinity,
with perhaps another weak low farther southwest across southwest IA.
A warm front extends eastward from the IA/WI border surface low
across southern WI and southern Lower MI. Showers and thunderstorms
occurred overnight along and north of this boundary, with the
primary remnants currently over southwestern ON towards western NY.
Additional thunderstorm development is beginning to the northwest of
the IA/WI border surface low as well as farther south within the
warm sector across northern IL. This activity is likely supported by
a combination of persistent warm-air advection and ascent linked to
a subtle shortwave trough moving through IA. Most guidance suggests
this activity, particularly the IL cluster, increases in coverage
and intensity over the next several hours as it continues eastward
across Lower MI and eventually into western PA/western NY. Some
intensification of the convective remnants moving across southwest
ON is possible as well. Robust deep-layer westerly flow amid at
least modest buoyancy will support damaging gusts as the primary
severe risk with these clusters. There is also enough low-level
curvature to support a low-probability tornado risk, particularly
along the southwest flanks of the IL and ON clusters where a more
cell-in-line convective mode is possible. A line-embedded
circulation could also occur if these clusters can become more organized.

How these clusters evolve, in particular the strength of any
outflow, will dictate the extent of airmass recovery in their wake.
This is particularly true across the OH Valley where much of the
guidance suggests another round of thunderstorms is possible along a
cold front forecast to move across the region this evening. Current
expectation is that the airmass will support strong to severe
thunderstorms, especially from central IN into central IL where the
influence of antecedent convection should be minimal. Steep lapse
rates and moderate shear will support a hail risk with the initially
more cellular development along the front. A trend towards a more
linear mode is anticipated thereafter, with undercutting by the cold
front likely as well.

Lastly, elevated thunderstorms are expected overnight from northern
MO into southern IA and central IL amid steep lapse rates and a
strengthening low-level jet. Marginally severe hail is possible with
this activity as well.

...Central/Southern Plains...

Recent surface analysis places a low over southwest KS, with a
dryline extending southwestward from this low through southeast NM
into Far West TX. This low is forecast to shift southeastward along
the leading edge of a cold front pushing southward into the TX
Panhandle and western OK, with its associated dryline gradually
shifting eastward. Increasing low-level moisture and strong heating
will help destabilize the airmass ahead of the front and surface
low. Low-level convergence along the front/dryline, and particularly
near the surface low, will support convective initiation. Vertical
shear will be sufficient for storm organization and a few supercells
are possible. Steep lapse rates and strong shear in the
cloud-bearing layer suggest large hail is possible early in the
convective cycle, while high LCLs suggest a trend toward strong
downbursts thereafter.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 03/31/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 150528
SWODY1
SPC AC 150527

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorm activity may impact the higher terrain of
northeastern New Mexico into adjacent high plains late this
afternoon into evening, accompanied by at least some potential for
severe hail and wind.

...Discussion...
Higher latitude blocking appears likely to persist with little
general change through this period. This regime will maintain a
broad area of cyclonic flow with anomalously low heights, which may
deepen further to the south of the central and eastern Canadian/U.S.
border vicinity, as a significant short wave trough digs across the
Dakotas through portions of the Upper Midwest by 12Z Tuesday.

Models indicate that this is likely to be accompanied by a more
notable southward surge of cooler/drier air, in the wake of a
stalling, weakening preceding cold front reaching the southern
Atlantic/Gulf Coast vicinity. With higher boundary-layer moisture
content and stronger potential instability largely becoming confined
to the south of the westerlies, the potential for organized severe
thunderstorm development appears seasonably low today through tonight.

...Southern Rockies into adjacent Great Plains...

Beneath a northwesterly mid-level regime, which may modestly
strengthen to the southwest of the digging short wave trough by this
late afternoon, models indicate that moistening on southerly
low-level flow may contribute to modest destabilization across the eastern/southeastern slopes of the southern Sangre de Cristo
Mountains into Raton Mesa vicinity. Perhaps aided by forcing for
ascent accompanying a subtle digging short wave perturbation, it
appears possible that thunderstorm activity, initiating with
destabilization across the higher terrain, could consolidate into a
small organizing cluster while propagating southeastward into the
adjacent high plains. Forecast soundings across this region suggest
that thermodynamic profiles may become potentially conducive to the
development of large hail and strong to severe wind gusts into mid
to late evening.

..Kerr/Weinman.. 06/15/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 160551
SWODY1
SPC AC 160550

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO MIDWEST AND
NEAR THE GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Areas of mainly widely scattered strong thunderstorm development,
accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather, are possible
across parts of the northern Great Plains into Midwest and near the
Gulf Coast vicinity today through tonight.

...Discussion...
Higher latitude blocking appears likely to maintain a broad area of
cyclonic mid-level flow with anomalously low heights to the lee of
the northern Rockies through the northern and middle Atlantic
Seaboard. Within this regime, models suggest that an initially
vigorous short wave trough (now digging into the Upper Midwest) may
maintain strength into and across the Lake Michigan vicinity, before
undergoing considerable deformation while turning eastward and
northeastward, to the southeast of a mid-level becoming centered
near the northern Manitoba/northwestern Ontario border. After
rounding the crest of mid-level ridging centered over the northern
mid-latitude eastern Pacific, it appears that another significant
short wave perturbation will dig through the broadly confluent
regime to the southwest of the low, across the northern Rockies
through northern Great Plains by late tonight.

In lower latitudes, mid/upper ridging emanating from the subtropical
Atlantic may maintain considerable influence across the Florida
peninsula today, while weak troughing, perhaps with a developing
mid-level cyclonic circulation, slowly pivots across the lower Texas
and Mexican Gulf coast.

In lower levels, seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content has
generally been maintained across much of the Gulf coastal plain. It
appears that strengthening southerly low-level flow may support more substantive moisture return to the southeast of deepening surface
troughing across the northern into central Great Plains by late tonight.

...Midwest/Great Lakes...

Weak convection accompanying forcing for ascent associated with the
lead short wave trough appears likely to persist and perhaps
increase across the Upper Midwest through Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley during the day. Coinciding low-level cooling is likely to at
least slow, if not inhibit, boundary layer warming in the wake of
this activity. However, various model output suggests that
associated low-level moistening, coupled with a period of insolation
beneath a developing mid-level dry slot, may be sufficient to
support a corridor of modest destabilization as the mid-level cold
pool (including 500 mb temperatures around -18 to -20C) overspreads
the southern Lake Michigan vicinity late this afternoon. This
environment might become sufficient for a developing broken band of
vigorous convection, perhaps including supercells, posing a risk for
severe hail/wind and possibly a tornado or two, before weakening
later this evening.

...Central Great Plains...

Forcing for ascent to support convective development along the
stalling cold front, trailing the short wave trough progressing into
the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley, remains unclear. However, there
appears a general consensus within model output that boundary-layer
moistening may support CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg across
parts of southern Kansas into southwestern Missouri, where mid-level
inhibition may remain weak enough through late afternoon/early
evening to allow for isolated/widely scattered thunderstorm
initiation. If this occurs, guidance indicates sufficient shear for
supercell development, before increasing inhibition suppresses
convection later this evening.

...Gulf Coast...

Models indicate modest strengthening of westerly flow (including
20-40 kt in the 850-500 mb layer) in a belt across the north central
through northeastern Gulf coast vicinity today. Coinciding with destabilization driven by daytime heating of the seasonably moist
boundary layer, this may support modestly organizing convection,
perhaps transient supercell structures, posing a risk for damaging
wind gusts and perhaps an isolated tornado or two.

...Northern Great Plains into Midwest...

Models suggest that a corridor of fairly deep boundary-layer mixing
will precede the vigorous short wave trough digging across and
east-southeast of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies. It appears
that associated mid-level forcing for ascent will contribute to
sufficient destabilization to support scattered thunderstorm
development with potential to produce some hail and scattered strong
to severe surface gusts late this afternoon into evening.

Within strengthening downstream warm advection, forcing for ascent
may begin to interact with better elevated moisture return to
support increasing strong thunderstorm development with potential to
producing severe hail by late tonight, across parts of eastern Iowa
and adjacent portions of the Midwest.

..Kerr/Weinman.. 06/16/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 191245
SWODY1
SPC AC 191244

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...CENTRAL PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST...AND
SIERRA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce gusty winds and
hail today across parts of the the Upper Midwest and central Plains.
Other strong thunderstorms may produce occasional damaging winds
from north Texas/southern Oklahoma into portions of the Southeast,
and separately across parts of the Sierra into the northern Great Basin.

...Texas into the Southeast/Carolinas...

An expansive area of convection has developed this morning across
north-central TX/southern OK, aided by modest low-level warm
advection and a weak mid-level disturbance. Both low-level and
deep-layer shear remain weak across this region (generally less than
20-25 kt), which should tend to limit updraft organization and
overall thunderstorm severity through the rest of the morning. But,
a very moist airmass and substantial reservoir of instability are
present ahead of this ongoing convection and south of a surface cold
front extending across TX into the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley.

Current expectations are for an isolated severe/damaging wind threat
to persist downstream into the afternoon across these areas as the
moist airmass undergoes additional destabilization with daytime
heating. Considered including higher wind probabilities, but
confidence in a more organized/severe MCS remains low owing to the
weak deep-layer shear. Additional thunderstorms have also formed
south into central/south-central TX this morning. This activity may
also pose some risk for severe winds with the stronger cores as it
develops east-southeastward through the day, even though shear and
overall updraft organization will remain modest.

The Marginal Risk extending into the Southeast/eastern Carolinas has
been generally adjusted southward to account for the position of the
cold front, and expectations that the isolated damaging wind risk
will likely remain confined along/south of this boundary. Stronger low/mid-level flow associated with the remnants of Arthur over the
eastern Carolinas this morning is forecast to quickly shift offshore
through the day. An isolated severe wind and brief tornado threat
may exist along/ahead of ongoing precipitation across this region,
although instability will remain limited.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will likely develop this
afternoon across parts of the FL Peninsula, with a preferential
focus along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze given modest westerly flow
aloft. While low/mid-level winds and related shear are expected to
remain weak, the strongest cores could still become capable of
producing occasional damaging winds as low-level lapse rates steepen
with daytime heating.

...Upper Midwest...

An upper low will remain over northern Manitoba/Ontario today, with
a broad fetch of moderate northwest flow aloft across the northern Rockies/Plains. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough is forecast
to move across the Dakotas and toward the upper MS Valley by this
evening, with weak surface low pressure into northern MN. Strong
surface heating along with generally 50s surface dewpoints and
convergence near a cold front will lead to scattered storms across
much of MN and western WI. Forecast soundings show cold profiles
aloft over northern areas, though effective bulk shear will be
somewhat weaker with northward extent. Deep-layer shear will be
stronger over southern MN, but instability will not be as favorable
farther south. Even so, cells that develop this afternoon and
evening and track southeastward may be capable of producing severe
hail given the cool mid-level temperatures. Occasional
severe/damaging winds may also occur.

...Central Plains...

Beneath modest northwest flow aloft, surface low pressure will
develop over southeast CO today, with southeasterly low-level winds
across the central Plains. This will aid modest low-level warm/moist
advection, with 50s to perhaps low 60s surface dewpoints across KS,
eastern CO, and southern NE. It remains uncertain if any
thunderstorms will develop later today across this region, but the
influence of the upper trough over the northern Plains may yield a
few elevated cells. Additional warm/moist advection this
evening/overnight may also support isolated convective development.
Hail appears to be the primary risk, with moderate
instability/deep-layer shear and somewhat steepened mid-level lapse
rates potentially supporting supercells. However, confidence in
sustained convection remains too low to include greater severe probabilities.

...Sierra/Northern Great Basin...

As a weak mid-level shortwave trough advances inland from the
eastern Pacific, isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms
should develop later today across parts of the northern Sierra
Mountains into adjacent portions of the Great Basin. While low-level
moisture will remain limited, a very deeply mixed boundary layer and
some mid-level moisture/cooling aloft ahead of the shortwave trough
should support weak instability and thunderstorm potential. This
activity could become strong given some deep-layer shear, with
isolated severe gusts/outflow possible.

..Gleason/Broyles.. 06/19/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)