From Mike Powell@618:250/10 to All on Fri Jul 3 11:15:04 2026
AWUS01 KWNH 031523
FFGMPD
FLZ000-031922-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0576
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1122 AM EDT Fri Jul 03 2026
Areas affected...urban areas of southeast Florida
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 031522Z - 031922Z
Summary...Deepening 'sea-breeze' convection was producing locally
heavy rainfall over Miami-Date Metro and surrounding areas. Flash
flooding is possible.
Discussion...Recent radar/satellite observations depict deep
convection firing along a sea-breeze boundary along the
southeastern Florida coast. The storms were forming in a very
moist/unstable environment, with 2+ inch PW values supporting
efficient rainfall processes and locally heavy rain rates. These
rates were occurring over urbanized ground conditions across
Miami/Ft. Lauderdale and surrounding areas. Spotty 1 inch/hr rain
rates were noted per MRMS data -- enough to cause concern for
urban flash flooding on an isolated basis in the near term.
While weak forcing (outside of the sea-breeze) suggests some
uncertainty on the persistence and longevity of the developing
flash flood risk, it appears that the threat should persist
through at least 19Z/3p eastern. Much of this risk will depend on recovery/destabilization along the sea-breeze in the wake of
ongoing convection. Flash flooding is possible in this regime.