AWUS01 KWNH 051121
FFGMPD
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-051719-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0609
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
720 AM EDT Sun Jul 05 2026

Areas affected...southern/southeastern Michigan, far northern
Indiana, and far northwestern Ohio

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 051119Z - 051719Z

Summary...Flash flood potential continues across the discussion area.

Discussion...A cluster of deep convection has materialized and
exhibited modest upscale growth from Jackson southward to
Montpelier in far northwestern Ohio this morning. Additional
convection is expanding in coverage southwest of Detroit through
areas south of Toledo. The storms remain in a favorable
environment for heavy rainfall due to ~500 J/kg MLCAPE, 1.8+ inch
PW values, slow storm motions, and ascent tied to an approaching
mid-level shortwave trough from the southwest (nortwestern
Indiana). Areas of 2-3 inch/hr rain rates were readily exceeding
FFG thresholds beneath the dominant cluster, and indications are
that the ongoing flash flood risk will continue in the near term
beneath any dominant, slow-moving convection in the region this morning.

The extent of the ongoing flash flood risk is a bit uncertain.
Eventually, the dominant cluster near Jackson, MI will gradually
pick up a bit more easterly motion through the low-level moist
axis - eventually reaching the southeastern MI/Canada border near
Detroit (though this process will take several hours to unfold).
Scattered to perhaps widespread FFG exceedance and flash flood
potential is expected. Models hint at westerly re-development
upstream of the ongoing complex in northern Indiana which is
possible given mid-level waves traversing that area through the
morning hours, but low-level advection (forcing low-level
convergence/ascent) is weak in this regime and more insolation may
be needed for convection to redevelop on more than an isolated
basis. This regime will be monitored through the morning.

Cook

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...GRR...IWX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42928392 42888303 42268274 41478318 41298473
41528605 42608513

$$
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