Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0659
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
743 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026
Areas affected...portions of Ohio and western Pennsylvania
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 101142Z - 101742Z
Summary...Isolated spots of FFG exceedance are possible this
morning as showers and a few thunderstorms move through the region
through 17Z/1p eastern.
Discussion...Radar/satellite imagery depicts scattered
thunderstorm activity migrating west-to-east at around 20 kt or so
across the discussion area (especially just south of Lake Erie)
this morning. The convection appears to be enhanced by mid-level
shortwave troughing over the region. Cells are exhibiting
favorable orientation for local training in far northwestern
Pennsylvania, and spots of 1 inch/hr rain rates were noted with
some of the convection from that area westward to central Ohio.
Thermodynamic character of the airmass supporting convection
(particularly 1.6+ inch PW and 500 J/kg MLCAPE) favor locally
heavy rainfall. Additionally, a weak convergence zone/front over
Lake Erie (evident via radar and surface obs) is favoring
backbuilding from near Cleveland through Erie, PA this morning.
Flash flooding is possible on an isolated basis with this activity.
Models/CAMs suggest that this activity should linger this morning,
but remain fairly isolated to scattered until later today when
stronger insolation/destabilization fosters an increase in
convective coverage. Flash flooding is possible through at least
17Z/1p eastern.