AWUS01 KWNH 101740
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-102337-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0661
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
139 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Areas affected...portions of Ohio, Pennsylvania, far southwestern
New York State, and far northern West Virginia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 101737Z - 102337Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms have increased in earnest in
response to surface heating and destabilization. Locally heavy
rainfall is contributing to flash flood potential that should
continue through 00Z/8p this evening.

Discussion...Scattered, slow-moving thunderstorms have developed
in earnest over the past hour or so. The storms are located in
several clusters from northwestern Ohio through central
Pennsylvania. The storms are located south of a front over Lake
Erie and are in an airmass characterized by 1.5-1.8 inch PW values
and ~2000 J/kg MLCAPE, supporting robust updrafts with locally
heavy rainfall. MRMS estimated of 1-1.5 inch/hr have already been
noted, which isn't surprising given modest steering flow aloft
(supporting 10-20 kt storm movement). Flash flooding is likely on
at least an isolated basis in the short term - especially in
Pennsylvania where spots of FFG thresholds below 1 inch/hr are
noted.

The ongoing flash flood risk will continue to expand slightly in
response to peak heating/destabilization through the afternoon.
The greatest risk for flash flooding will exist from eastern OH
eastward into central PA where local FFG thresholds are lowest
(around 0.75-1.5 inch/hr). The risk will primarily be diurnally
driven and may lessen gradually with loss of surface heating after
sunset. Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are
expected, with several areas of mergers supporting local peaks of
2 inch/hr rain rates and spots of 3 inch rainfall totals.

Cook


ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...ILN...IWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42448034 42407904 42427791 42037739 41397727
40557783 39947917 39428120 38958321 39138419
39618454 41498400 41848260

$$


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