ACUS01 KWNS 281255
SWODY1
SPC AC 281253

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and a tornado threat are
expected today from parts of the Mid-Atlantic southward into the
Carolinas. A few severe wind gusts and hail may also occur this
afternoon and evening across parts of the central High Plains.

...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas and southern Appalachians...
A loosely organized band of storms, with some semi-discrete
storms/prior supercell on its southwestern flank around sunrise,
will continue to progress east-southeastward across the Cumberland
Plateau toward/across the Appalachians spine early today. Some
severe risk may exist this morning with the aforementioned storms on
the southwest flank including along the Kentucky/West
Virginia/Virginia border vicinity, but storm-associated cloud cover
and precipitation will otherwise be an important and somewhat
uncertain factor for destabilization with northeastward extent
regionally later today.

The region will be influenced by some additional large-scale
amplification of the upper trough along the East Coast, with a belt
of notably strong (45-55 kt around 500 mb) northwesterly flow aloft,
as sampled by upstream 12z observed RAOBs from the likes of
Wilmington OH and Pittsburgh PA, that is expected to spread
southeastward toward the region today. A moist air mass will persist
ahead of the east-southeastward-moving cold front, with the
strongest destabilization across the southern Appalachians vicinity
and Carolinas. Recovery/destabilization is generally expected across
Virginia in the wake of the early day convection, allowing for
probable severe-storm development into mid/late afternoon. Severe
storms may occur farther north across the Mid-Atlantic within a more
narrow warm sector.

Ample deep-layer shear and moderate low-level shear/SRH will support
a combination of supercells and organized line segments, with a more
discrete mode, and longer duration thereof, expected with the
southwesternmost extent of storms regionally from southern Virginia
into the Carolinas/southern Appalachians. Some tornado potential
will exist aside from a more prevalent damaging wind risk this
afternoon and evening as storms spread toward coastal areas.

...Central High Plains...
A ridge-peripheral low-amplitude/subtle shortwave trough will
influence scattered thunderstorm development later today.
Thunderstorms are expected to form in the higher terrain and drift
eastward into the lower elevations. Moderate buoyancy across the
High Plains and upwards of 30-40 kt (stronger northward regionally)
effective shear will support sustained storms. Steep low-level lapse
rates and surface-temperature dewpoint spreads near 30 degrees F
will support a potential for isolated severe wind gusts, aside from
some hail this afternoon and evening.

..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/28/2026

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 291247
SWODY1
SPC AC 291246

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Valid 291300Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this
afternoon and evening in the northern Plains. Severe wind gusts will
also be possible today across southern Georgia and northern Florida,
as well as the Great Basin/northern Intermountain West.

...Southeast States...
Near the base of the extensive eastern CONUS trough, a cold front
will slowly spread southward/stall regionally, with a moist and
unstable air mass to its south. Surface dewpoints in the 70s F will
contribute to an axis of strong instability by afternoon, with
MLCAPE likely reaching 3000+ J/kg with steep low-level lapse rates.
Damaging winds will be possible with the stronger storms, which
could include the development of some semi-organized clusters into
late afternoon/early evening.

...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest...
An approaching disturbance and weak height falls will develop into
the region later today, interfacing with an east-southeastward
moving front and somewhat sharpening the regional lee trough ahead
of it. Surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s F will contribute
to moderate instability as surface temperatures diurnally warm.
Low-level convergence along the front/lee trough will aid convective initiation, with scattered thunderstorms moving eastward
across the western Dakotas during the late afternoon and early
evening. Large hail can be expected, and the high-based storms will
be capable of severe-caliber wind gusts, especially if storms
aggregate and cluster into the evening.

Farther east, a more conditional-type threat will exist diurnally
into northern Minnesota within a very unstable environment, but it
is a bit more probable that widely scattered storms develop into the
region tonight. If so, a few severe storms capable of wind/hail could occur.

...Great Basin/northern Intermountain West...
A northeastward-transitioning shortwave trough and speed max, along
with diurnal heating, will influence thunderstorm development across
the region, including portions of southern/eastern Idaho and nearby
portions of northeast Nevada, northern Utah and southwest Montana.
Modestly enhanced mid-level winds and sufficient buoyancy/steep
lapse rates will support the potential for a few severe storms
capable of severe-caliber wind gusts and possibly some hail.

...Coastal southern New England...
Bands of semi-organized convection will move toward the coast
through the afternoon, preceding the offshore surface low/triple
point. Some stronger storms could materialize toward the coast with
gusts given the strengthening low-level winds, but current thinking
is the primary warm sector should remain offshore and limit the
severe potential.

..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/29/2026

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 041237
SWODY1
SPC AC 041235

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 AM CDT Tue Aug 04 2026

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe wind gusts are possible across southeast Arizona
during the late afternoon and evening.

...Southeast Arizona...
A flattened mid to upper-level ridge over the Desert Southwest will
feature a moderate belt of easterlies across Sonora into far
southern portions of NM and AZ. A seasonably moist airmass will
undergo strong heating and result in moderate buoyancy by mid
afternoon (1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) per RAP/NAM forecast soundings.
Initially widely scattered storm development over the higher terrain
will gradually move west across southeast AZ during the late
afternoon and evening. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (around 8 deg
C/km) atop very steep low-level lapse rates ahead of this activity
will support ample evaporative cooling potential with the stronger
thunderstorm cores. The resultant microbursts and associated
outflow will yield a risk for 60-80 mph gusts as storms congeal into
a small cluster or two.

...Sangre de Cristos and adjacent plains...
A local maximum in buoyancy is depicted by model guidance near the
Raton Mesa by mid-late afternoon where widely scattered storms will
likely develop. Some of the CAMs show this activity moving
southeast into parts of the OK-TX Panhandles during the early
evening with an isolated risk for severe gusts. Marginally severe
hail is possible with the stronger cores.

...Western Carolinas...
A mid-level low will remain over northern Georgia today. To the
east of the low, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to
develop over the western Carolinas by afternoon. Warming surface
temperatures in the higher terrain will result in scattered
convective initiation across the southern Appalachians. As
instability peaks and low-level lapse rates become steep in the
afternoon, an isolated wind-damage threat is expected to develop in
the western Carolinas.

..Smith/Bentley.. 08/04/2026

$$
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RETRY

ACUS01 KWNS 041237
SWODY1
SPC AC 041235

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 AM CDT Tue Aug 04 2026

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe wind gusts are possible across southeast Arizona
during the late afternoon and evening.

...Southeast Arizona...
A flattened mid to upper-level ridge over the Desert Southwest will
feature a moderate belt of easterlies across Sonora into far
southern portions of NM and AZ. A seasonably moist airmass will
undergo strong heating and result in moderate buoyancy by mid
afternoon (1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) per RAP/NAM forecast soundings.
Initially widely scattered storm development over the higher terrain
will gradually move west across southeast AZ during the late
afternoon and evening. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (around 8 deg
C/km) atop very steep low-level lapse rates ahead of this activity
will support ample evaporative cooling potential with the stronger
thunderstorm cores. The resultant microbursts and associated
outflow will yield a risk for 60-80 mph gusts as storms congeal into
a small cluster or two.

...Sangre de Cristos and adjacent plains...
A local maximum in buoyancy is depicted by model guidance near the
Raton Mesa by mid-late afternoon where widely scattered storms will
likely develop. Some of the CAMs show this activity moving
southeast into parts of the OK-TX Panhandles during the early
evening with an isolated risk for severe gusts. Marginally severe
hail is possible with the stronger cores.

...Western Carolinas...
A mid-level low will remain over northern Georgia today. To the
east of the low, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to
develop over the western Carolinas by afternoon. Warming surface
temperatures in the higher terrain will result in scattered
convective initiation across the southern Appalachians. As
instability peaks and low-level lapse rates become steep in the
afternoon, an isolated wind-damage threat is expected to develop in
the western Carolinas.

..Smith/Bentley.. 08/04/2026

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 092000
SWODY1
SPC AC 091959

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Valid 092000Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds are possible today into this evening from
southern Wisconsin eastward across parts of northern Illinois,
southern Lower Michigan, northwest Ohio, and northern Indiana.
Damaging wind and hail may also occur across portions of the Dakotas
tonight.

...20Z Update...
The main changes made to the outlook were to remove the Slight Risk
and more broadly expand Marginal Risk severe probabilities across
the central/northern Plains. CAM guidance has shown appreciable
uncertainty regarding storm coverage in this region, and trends in
model output continue to show sparse coverage. Nonetheless,
widespread 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE amid 50+ kts of effective bulk shear
may support a couple of severe multicells or supercells should any
storms manage to become sustained this afternoon or evening. The
Slight Risk along/south of the Great Lakes was expanded slightly
eastward into northern OH to account for some boundary layer
destabilization ahead of an approaching MCS, where a few damaging
gusts are possible.

Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track, with only minor
changes made to the severe/thunder probabilities to account for the
latest observations and guidance consensus.

..Squitieri.. 08/09/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1056 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2026/

...Midwest...
A persistent cluster of thunderstorms over southern WI appears
likely to continue southeastward through much of the day into parts
of IL/MI/IN and eventually OH. This activity will track near a
NW-SE oriented baroclinic zone, with dewpoints in the lower 70s to
the south. Eventually, low-level lapse rates will become
sufficiently steep to support damaging wind gusts along the leading
edge of the storms. Later tonight, strengthening southwesterly
low-level winds will enhance warm advection and lift over parts of
IL/IN, potentially leading to another round of strong/severe storms
capable of damaging winds and hail after 06z.

...Dakotas...
12z model guidance continues to decrease the confidence in overnight
severe storms, with some CAM solutions showing no thunderstorms.
Therefore have made the SLGT area smaller and focused where there is
highest confidence in isolated storms. Forecast soundings continue
to indicate steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep shear,
providing a conditional risk of supercells if convection can be
sustained.

...AZ...
Thunderstorms are once again predicted to form along the Rim and
track westward toward the PHX metro area this evening. The strength
of the steering flow, instability, and mid-level moisture all appear
favorable for a severe risk. However, mesoscale details of the
evolution of the storms over high terrain will dictate the eventual
risk.

$$


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