ACUS01 KWNS 301250
SWODY1
SPC AC 301249

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Valid 301300Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be
possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and
northern Plains, but especially across parts of Nebraska and South
Dakota. Isolated severe wind gusts may also occur across parts of
the Southeast.

...Central and Northern Plains including Nebraska/South Dakota...
An amplifying shortwave trough evident in water vapor imagery over
Wyoming this morning will continue east and then a bit southeastward
through tonight toward the middle Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest.
A cold front will become more southeastward-progressive later today
and tonight, intercepting a moisture-rich air mass across Kansas
into Nebraska/South Dakota.

Early day scattered precipitation/cloud cover will tend to abate
and/or shift away from the region later today, allowing for ample
insolation near a surface trough and ahead of the front.
Mid-tropospheric winds will be weak, but a few initial supercells
could occur in vicinity of south-central South Dakota into central
Nebraska amidst somewhat stronger effective shear. Some severe hail
will be possible early in the developmental cycle, but damaging
winds should be an increasing and more common concern with the
expectation that storms will cluster, grow upscale, and progress
southeastward this evening, aided by an increasingly strong
southwesterly low-level jet.

Further west into parts of the High Plains, pockets of moderate
instability may develop in parts of eastern Colorado, western Kansas
and eastern Montana. Although large-scale ascent will be weak in
these areas, topographic forcing will aid convective initiation.
During the mid/late afternoon into evening, isolated to scattered
storms will move east-southeastward into the lower elevations,
including the possibility of storms spreading from southern
Saskatchewan into northeast Montana, where a somewhat more
severe-favorable environment will exist. Localized strong to severe
wind gusts and hail will be possible regionally.

...Southeast/Florida...
A very moist air mass will persist regionally to the south of a
generally west/east-oriented front. Scattered thunderstorms are
already ongoing this morning particularly across northern Florida
and nearby offshore waters, with additional storm development
expected to the north near and just south of the front where
stronger insolation/destabilization is expected. Some of the
stronger storms that develop and mature will be capable of isolated
damaging wind gusts through late afternoon/early evening.

..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/30/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
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ACUS01 KWNS 310529
SWODY1
SPC AC 310527

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OZARKS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this
afternoon and evening across parts of the Ozarks and mid Mississippi
Valley. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible in parts of the
southern Plains and from east-central Colorado into northeastern New Mexico.

...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley...
At mid-levels, a positively tilted shortwave trough will move
southeastward across the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. An
associated cold front will advance southeastward into the western
Ozarks. Ahead of the front, an axis of moisture will be in place
with surface dewpoints in the 70s F. As surface temperatures warm,
moderate instability will develop along and near the moist axis,
with MLCAPE forecast to peak in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range during
the afternoon. In addition to the instability, mid-level flow will
be westerly at 30 to 35 knots, which will contribute to moderate
deep-layer shear over much of the moist sector. This will result a
mixed mode with supercells and organized line segments both
possible. Along the instability axis, 0-3 km lapse rates are
forecast to peak near 7 C/km which will support a threat for severe
wind gusts. The threat could persist into the early to mid evening
as storms move southeastward across the mid Mississippi Valley.

...Southern Plains/East-central Colorado/Northeast New Mexico...
Northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the
central U.S. today. At the surface, a cold front will move southward
into central Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle by afternoon. An axis
of moderate instability will develop ahead of the front as
temperatures become hot in the mid to late afternoon. Increasing
low-level convergence near the front will result in scattered
thunderstorm development. These storms will move south-southeastward
across the Red River Valley and southward across the Caprock of west
Texas. Very steep low to mid-level lapse rates and large temperature
dewpoint spreads exceeding 40 degrees F in some areas will result in
a potential for isolated severe wind gusts.

Further west into east-central Colorado and northeast New Mexico, an
axis of instability will develop by afternoon in and near the
foothills of the southern Rockies. Storms will form in the mid to
late afternoon in the higher terrain and gradually move
southeastward into the lower elevations. Steep low to mid-level
lapse rates will support a potential for isolated severe gusts. Hail
could also occur with the stronger updrafts.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 07/31/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
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ACUS01 KWNS 031227
SWODY1
SPC AC 031226

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0726 AM CDT Mon Aug 03 2026

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today across parts of
northern Minnesota into adjacent portions of the eastern Dakotas, as
well as across southeastern Arizona.

...Upper Midwest southward into the central High Plains...
Radar mosaic shows a loose cluster of mainly occasionally strong
thunderstorm activity over the Red River Valley. This activity has
developed partly in response to isentropic lift downstream of an eastward-migrating mid-level speed max over the northern Rockies and
adjacent plains. The morning showers/thunderstorms will likely
reinforce a frontal zone draped southwest to northeast over the region.

Heating in wake of early day cloud cover will foster moderate
destabilization by mid afternoon as mid to upper-level flow
gradually strengthens. The initial storms later today will likely
pose a risk for severe gusts and large hail and perhaps a tornado if
a couple of storms can acquire supercell characteristics and mature
within a moist axis ahead of the front. Otherwise, small clusters
will probably evolve with time and pose mainly a wind/hail threat.
Farther south, lower storm coverage is expected along a surface
trough into the central High Plains. Isolated, high-based storms
will slowly move east within a hot airmass featuring very steep
lapse rates. Isolated severe gusts may accompany the stronger cores
and outflow before these storms wane by mid evening.

...Southeastern Arizona/adjacent New Mexico...
Model guidance continues to indicate a belt of enhanced mid to upper northeasterlies over northern Sonora into far southeastern
AZ/southwestern NM. Very strong heating resulting in moderate
destabilization and orographic lift will favor scattered
thunderstorm development by late afternoon into the early evening.
Models (e.g., MPAS, HREF) show a cluster or two propagating on
outflow into the lower deserts during the evening with very steep
0-3 km lapse rates preceding this convection. Severe gusts 60 to 75
mph will be the primary hazard.

...Northern Mid Atlantic through western New England...
Along and ahead of a weak cold front, trailing a deepening surface
low migrating northeastward toward the lower St. Lawrence Valley, boundary-layer destabilization will probably be slowed, if not
inhibited, by weak mid-level lapse rates and early day cloud cover/precipitation. However, strengthening deep-layer wind fields
and shear will potentially become more supportive of organized
thunderstorm development. If a couple of stronger updrafts can
develop, a risk for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado
may materialize---contingent on sufficient destabilization occurring prior.

..Smith/Bentley.. 08/03/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 061328
SWODY1
SPC AC 061326

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0826 AM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS...

CORRECTED FOR WIND LINES

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable primarily
of a severe-wind threat will be possible this afternoon and evening
over parts of Ozarks and Great Plains. Isolated strong to locally
severe gusts capable of wind damage are possible from the
Mid-Atlantic northward into New York.

...Ozarks westward into the southern High Plains...
Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level anticyclone centered over
AZ/UT and a broad trough over the Upper Midwest favoring modest west-northwesterly mid to high-level flow across the central Plains.
Several clusters of showers/thunderstorms are ongoing this morning
from the mid MS Valley and lower MO Valley into the OK-KS border
region. Much of this activity is located to the north of a residual
front and outflow draped from the TX Panhandle east-northeast into
the mid MS Valley. South of the boundary, an appreciably moist
airmass, featuring 50s F dewpoints west to lower 70s east, will heat
in areas void of convection and related cloud debris. It is
uncertain how much influence morning showers/storms will have across
the Slight Risk area. Nonetheless, model forecast soundings show
moderate destabilization occurring by mid-late afternoon across much
of this region. Isolated to widely scattered storms will
preferentially develop near the effective front/outflow. Some storm organization is possible with the main threat being isolated to
widely scattered severe gusts. Have adjusted the level 1 intensity
for wind to northern OK westward into the southern High Plains where
steep low-level lapse rates are forecast. A couple of multicell
clusters may eventually evolve during the early evening. A relative
minimum in storm activity may occur over parts of the TX Panhandle
in between storms over the northeast NM/western part of the TX
Panhandle and higher coverage of storms farther east over northern
OK into the Ozarks.

...Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast...
Mid-level flow will be southwesterly over the Northeast today. At
the surface, a trough will be located from the Atlantic Coastal
Plains of Virginia north-northeastward into the southeastern New
York. As surface temperatures warm today, thunderstorms will
develop in the foothills of the Appalachians, moving
east-northeastward into the lower elevations and toward the surface
trough. Surface dewpoints near the trough will be in the lower to
mid 70s F, which will contribute to moderate destabilization by
early afternoon (MLCAPE 1000-2500 J/kg). Some of the stronger
water-loaded downdrafts will be capable of an isolated risk for wind
damage.

...Western Nebraska/southern South Dakota...
West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over much of the north-central U.S. At the surface, an axis of low-level
moisture will set up from western Nebraska into far southern South
Dakota, where dewpoints will be in the 60s F. Near this axis, model
forecasts show a pocket of moderate instability this afternoon with
MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. Although large-scale ascent will be weak,
any cell that can initiate near the instability axis could be
capable of producing isolated severe gusts/large hail.

..Smith/Bentley.. 08/06/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 071236
SWODY1
SPC AC 071234

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 AM CDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of scattered damaging wind gusts are possible
this afternoon and early evening over parts of the Mid-Atlantic
states. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across
portions of the central U.S. and Arizona.

...Mid-Atlantic...
A relatively nondescript pattern is located over the region between
a Bermuda high and troughing over the Upper Midwest. Seasonably
strong heating of a moist airmass (12 UTC Dulles, VA raob sampled a
14 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio) will support a
destabilizing boundary layer and scattered thunderstorm development
this afternoon. A few thunderstorm clusters will probably evolve
through the late afternoon into the early evening as this activity
moves through the I-95 corridor. Isolated strong to locally severe
gusts (i.e., 50-60 mph) capable of scattered wind damage will be the
primary threat with the stronger cores.

...Mid-Missouri Valley into the Lake Superior region...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough
moving southeastward over the Red River Valley towards the Upper
Great Lakes later today. In response to forcing for ascent
associated with the disturbance, a couple of ongoing thunderstorm
clusters will probably continue this morning. There is low
confidence in the evolution of these clusters and an associated
severe risk. Nonetheless, as a cold front continues to push
southeast across the Upper Midwest later today, additional storm
development is likely but details are nebulous at this time. Model
guidance indicates a greater overlap of CAPE/shear may focus across
western IA later this afternoon. Will re-evaluate in subsequent
outlook updates for whether a mesoscale corridor can be identified
with a locally greater severe risk within the larger Marginal Risk
denoting isolated hail/wind potential.

...Southern High Plains into the Ozarks...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop across northeast NM
into the TX Panhandle this afternoon. Relatively high uncertainty
remains regarding storm placement removed from the higher terrain of
northeast NM. Regardless, ample heating of an adequately moist but
deepening boundary layer will support a thermodynamic profile
favoring severe gusts with the stronger cores and associated
outflow.

Further east into OK, KS, and the Ozarks, ongoing elevated storms
from northern OK into eastern KS are likely rooted near the base of
the EML. This activity will probably diminish in spatial extent
through midday, but it is possible additional storms will develop
along the outflow and could yield localized strong/severe storm
potential. Will defer severe highlights at this time due to low predictability.

...Arizona...
Latest convection-allowing model ensembles and MPAS guidance imply
some risk for widely scattered storms to develop over the Mogollon
Rim and the higher terrain in southeast AZ and gradually spread into
the lower deserts this evening. Given the steep lapse rates
preceding this potential convection and possible scenario, have
introduced low-severe wind probabilities.

...Nebraska/South Dakota...
Elevated convection is expected to develop across portions of
northern NE and southern SD during the overnight hours tonight as
isentropic ascent increases in tandem with a modest intensification
of a low-level jet. Low-level moistening through 850 mb under a
plume of 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates should promote adequate
buoyancy for a few robust updrafts (though confidence in storm
coverage is limited due to the weak nature of the forcing for
ascent). However, strong shear across the region will likely promote
organized convection, including a supercell or two, capable of
producing large hail.

..Smith/Kerr.. 08/07/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 101248
SWODY1
SPC AC 101247

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible this afternoon
and evening from northern Illinois eastward into Pennsylvania.
Severe gusts and hail will also be possible from parts of the
central and northern Plains into the Midwest, with scattered severe
storms over southern Arizona.

...Synopsis...
Another highly uncertain and complex forecast with mesoscale
convective dependencies apparent this forecast update. Water-vapor
imagery implies a belt of west-northwest mid to high-level flow
extending across the northern High Plains east through much of the
Midwest, and to the north of a flattened mid-level ridge extending
from the Four Corners to FL. Embedded within the flow, a
convectively augmented disturbance over the southern Great Lakes
will move east into PA by early this afternoon. Another minor
perturbation over southwest MT this morning will quickly move into
the Dakotas by early evening and probably influence the severe
threat from SD into adjacent parts of IA/MN overnight.

...IL to the Mid-Atlantic...
Radar mosaic this morning shows an organized line segment moving
east along the OH-Lake Erie shoreline and a couple of other
thunderstorm clusters over western OH and south-central PA. The
Detroit, MI WSR-88D VAD showed a mid-level speed max associated with
the convectively augmented vorticity max moving east across the Lake
Erie vicinity. Gradual intensification of storms is expected this
morning as the boundary layer heats downstream across OH into PA and
the Mid-Atlantic states (refer to MCD 1892 for short-term details
regarding the northeast OH thunderstorms). Of particular note, the
12 UTC Pittsburgh, PA and Wilmington, OH raobs showed a moderate to
very unstable airmass (1800-2700 J/kg MLCAPE, respectively) in place
over the upper OH Valley. Severe gusts capable of scattered wind
damage will be possible through the afternoon with any stronger
thunderstorms and clusters of storms. Farther west, models show
storm redevelopment perhaps centered over northern IN/IL later this afternoon/evening. Shear/buoyancy profiles will support organized
storms, including supercells and linear clusters. Damaging wind and
hail will be the primary hazards, though a tornado or two also could
occur.

...Dakotas into MN/IA...
Similar to previous forecast thinking, southeasterly low-level flow
will aid in the transport of seasonably rich moisture (mainly 60s F
surface dewpoints) north and west into SD. Model forecast soundings
show large buoyancy developing by mid afternoon within the
aforementioned moist plume. The weak impulse implied by model
guidance moving into western SD may enable at least isolated to
potentially scattered storms developing towards early evening over
western and central SD. The 00z ECMWF and 00z HREF consensus
suggest a linear cluster evolves during the evening and grows
upscale into an MCS during the overnight moving east-southeast along
a residual frontal zone. Have included an intensity level-1 to
denote this conditional but significant wind risk if this forecast
scenario occurs.

...AZ...
Mid/upper easterly flow will persist today amid plentiful moisture
and strong heating. This will support thunderstorm development once
again across higher terrain. Scattered storms are forecast to
eventually develop with their cold pools coalescing over the lower
desert. Based on the latest CAM guidance and inverted-V profiles
with marginally supportive shear for loose storm organization, have
upgraded a part of the lower desert into higher severe-wind
probabilities. Widely scattered to scattered severe gusts 60-75 mph
are possible with this activity.

...NE/CO/KS...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near a surface
trough across western NE/northeast CO by late afternoon/early
evening. As the high-based storms mature into possibly a small
linear cluster and move into richer moisture with east extent, steep
low- to mid-level lapse rates will support severe gusts (60-75 mph)
and perhaps hail with this activity.

..Smith/Kerr.. 08/10/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 121237
SWODY1
SPC AC 121236

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Valid 121300Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today through this
evening from parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio
Valley into portions of the central and northern High Plains.
Severe gusts and large hail are the primary hazards.

...IA to OH Valley...
Radar/satellite imagery this morning show several thunderstorm
clusters ongoing from IA into the OH Valley. The most notable
thunderstorm cluster is over far eastern IA and is moving into
central and northern IL this morning. The airmass downstream of
this activity is very moist and extremely unstable [reference the 12
UTC Davenport, IA raob (4300 J/kg MLCAPE)], and it is located near
the terminus of a 35-kt west-southwesterly LLJ over northern MO.
Expecting a gradual intensification of storms this morning across IL
with a risk for scattered severe gusts and associated wind damage. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the eventual evolution of
additional storm clusters over parts of the Midwest through this
afternoon. Outflow from morning showers/storms over eastern IN into
central KY will likely inhibit appreciable severe risk farther east
across parts of the OH Valley. Nonetheless, a moist and
destabilizing boundary layer will lend a risk for scattered wind
damage and isolated large hail with the stronger storms through the
late afternoon and evening.

...Northern/Central Plains...
East/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain modest moisture
across the Dakotas, increasing with southward extent across NE into
northern KS. Near-60 F dewpoints will likely spread westward into
eastern CO/WY/MT beneath steep lapse rates. Ample heating will
result in moderate buoyancy and 30+ kt effective shear---supporting
some organization to the scattered thunderstorms forecast to develop
later this afternoon/evening. Initial cells will pose a threat for
large hail and severe gusts. Some clustering may occur during the
evening but confidence remains low regarding specific corridors
where the severe threat will focus.

...Lower MI into NY/PA/NJ...
A belt of stronger northwesterly flow aloft will extend from Lower
MI into NY/PA today. A seasonally moist/unstable airmass will be in
place. Vertically veering wind profiles will foster 35+ kt
effective shear magnitudes, while hodographs are fairly elongated.
Midlevel lapse rates will remain modest, with MLCAPE around
1000-1500 J/kg expected. Isolated to widely scattered storms will
pose a risk for damaging gusts and marginally severe hail.

...TN Valley/Southeast...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop by midday within a very moist
and strongly unstable airmass. Deep-layer northwesterly flow will
remain weak, but steepened 0-2 km lapse rates and high PW (near 2
inches) will support an isolated risk for some stronger water-loaded
downdrafts capable of wind damage.

...Lower CO River Valley...
Model guidance shows widely scattered storms developing this
afternoon near a weak upper trough analyzed this morning via
water-vapor imagery. Some of the stronger thunderstorm downdrafts
may be capable of isolated severe gusts.

..Smith/Kerr.. 08/12/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 131240
SWODY1
SPC AC 131238

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL IOWA
INTO EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today from
parts of the southern/central High Plains to the mid Mississippi and
lower Ohio Valleys. Severe gusts capable of wind damage should be
the main threat, but occasional hail may also occur.

...Iowa into Illinois/Indiana...
Radar mosaic/IR imagery loops show a long-lived MCS over central IA
moving east towards the MS River this morning. Widely scattered
severe gusts 60-70 mph are possible with the more intense bowing
structures and short-lived mesovortices embedded within the line,
along with a brief tornado risk (for short-term details, reference
MCD #1966). This activity will continue into IL but limited
confidence regarding its evolution and subsequent severe risk cast
uncertainty whether it will reinvigorate or additional strong/severe
storms will develop on the leading edge of outflow. Regardless, a
moist airmass across the eastern Corn Belt will destabilize amid a
veil of high clouds. Forecast model guidance shows 35-45 effective
shear supporting organized storms. Isolated to scattered damaging
gusts will be the primary severe hazard, although a brief tornado
and marginally severe hail are also possible through the early
evening.

...Southern/Central High Plains...
High-based thunderstorms are forecast to initially develop over the
higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range this afternoon,
with post-frontal low-level upslope flow persisting across the
central High Plains. Storm motions into slightly richer moisture
will favor some aggregation of outflow within a hot boundary layer
featuring steep lapse rates. Isolated to widely scattered severe
gusts 60-75 mph are possible, along with occasional hail with a few
of the stronger cores that develop. It seems possible a
smaller-scale area within this broad region may focus a slightly
more concentrated severe-wind threat. However, given the modest
large-scale forcing mechanisms and marginal deep-layer shear for
storm organization, will defer higher severe-wind probabilities for
the time being.

...Great Basin...
Modestly enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow will persist today
across the Great Basin downstream of a weak mid-level trough over
CA. Weak to locally moderate instability is forecast via diurnal
heating. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected and some
of the stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts will be capable of
60-75 mph gusts.

...Northeast...
Seasonably cool mid-level temperatures are forecast today across
parts of the Northeast, with a mid-level trough expected to move east-southeastward from Quebec into New England. While instability
is forecast to remain fairly limited, strong west-northwesterly flow
aloft may support a risk for isolated damaging winds (50-65 mph)
with thunderstorms that develop and spread southeastward through the
afternoon. Isolated hail may also occur with the stronger cells.

..Smith/Kerr.. 08/13/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 141249
SWODY1
SPC AC 141247

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
MID MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and
evening across parts of the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi
Valleys. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible in parts of the
central Plains and from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic.

...Mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys...
An extensive band of showers and thunderstorms currently extends
from northeast NE southeastward across central IA, central IL, and
central IN. These showers and thunderstorms have been supported by
warm-air advection across a relatively broad/diffuse frontal zone
extending from southeast NE east-southeastward across northern MO
and southern IL. Overall coverage and intensity of these showers and thunderstorms is forecast to gradually wane throughout the morning
as the low-level jet responsible for the warm-air advection weakens.

Primary severe risk across this region today will be linked to the
amount of air mass recovery and associated destabilization that
occurs along the southern periphery of this band, ahead of a
well-defined MCV generated by overnight convection across KS and NE.
Ample low-level moisture is in place, and differential heating
between the residual cloud debris from the early morning storms
could result in a warm-front-like zone across southern IA or
northern MO. Where this boundary sets up, its strength, and its
location all still remain uncertain this morning, largely due to the
limited predictability of how the ongoing precipitation evolves. The
airmass along and south of this boundary is forecast to destabilize
and become moderately to strongly unstable by the late afternoon.
Additionally, low-level convergence along this boundary should be
augmented by mesoscale ascent attendant to the MCV progressing
through the region. The resulting combination of lift and buoyancy
will support thunderstorm development. A belt of stronger mid-level
flow could accompany the MCV, resulting in enough deep-layer shear
to support organized storm structures with any persistent updrafts.
Strong gusts associated with water-loaded downdrafts, as well as
with any bowing segments, are the primary severe risk. Presence of
the boundary coupled with southeasterly low-level flow will also
support the potential for a brief tornado, particularly early in the
convective cycle when a more cellular mode is likely.

...Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic...
Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing from IL into OH. These showers
and thunderstorms will likely weaken this morning but associated
cloud cover could reinforce a modest baroclinic zone that extends
from southern IL across southern IN/southern OH and through central
WV/central VA. A modest vorticity max over central IL is forecast to
progress southeast within the west-northwesterly mid-level flow
along and north of this boundary today. Ascent attendant to this
vorticity maximum coupled with low-level convergence and afternoon
airmass destabilization will support renewed thunderstorm
development. Vertical shear will be weak, but strong updrafts and
ample moisture could result in a threat for wet microbursts.

...Central High Plains...
A shortwave trough currently moving through the Lower CO River
Valley is forecast to continue northeastward through the Four
Corners. Ascent associated with this wave will combine with
orographic lift in the foothills of the Rockies to support scattered
convective initiation by early afternoon. Thunderstorms will then
move northeastward into the moderately buoyant airmass over the
central High Plains. Deep-layer shear will be modest but sufficient
for a few organized updrafts capable of hail and damaging gusts.

...Southern NV Vicinity...
Dewpoints are in the 60s across southern CA, the Lower CO River
Valley, and southern AZ. Strong heating will support afternoon
airmass destabilization, combining with the moisture in place to
support moderate buoyancy. Slightly stronger mid-level flow is
anticipated over the southern NV vicinity, supporting the potential
for isolated strong gusts.

..Mosier/Dean.. 08/14/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 151251
SWODY1
SPC AC 151249

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Valid 151300Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS WELL AS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be
possible from late afternoon into the evening across the central
High Plains. Severe wind gusts will also be possible this afternoon
into the early evening across parts of the Ohio Valley.

...Central High Plains...
Relatively moist southwesterly flow aloft coupled with strong
daytime heating and lift both from orographic effects and a weak
vorticity maximum will support another day of thunderstorms across
the central Rockies. These thunderstorms should gradually move off
the higher terrain into the central High Plains, where a moderately
buoyant airmass will be in place. Around 30 to 35 kt of effective
bulk shear is expected over the region as well, which is strong
enough to support a mixed mode with supercells and multicell line
segments. Isolated large hail is possible with any supercells, while
severe wind gusts will be possible with both supercells and line
segments. The severe threat should persist into the early to mid
evening as this complex of storms moves eastward through the central
High Plains.

...Central OH Valley...
An expansive, slow-moving MCS, characterized by widespread showers
and sub-severe thunderstorms, is centered over central IL this
morning. This MCS has been supported overnight by a southwesterly
low-level jet that extends from the southern High Plains into the
Mid MS Valley. This low-level jet is forecast to wane throughout the
morning, with a subsequent decrease in coverage and intensity of the
showers and thunderstorms within the MCS. Even so, the vorticity
maximum associated with this system will gradually drift eastward,
likely supporting renewed thunderstorm development across the
middle/upper OH Valley as it interacts with a diurnally
destabilizing airmass. Lapse rates will be poor, but dewpoints in
the 70s will still support moderate buoyancy, particularly in areas
where cloud cover does not overly inhibit diurnal heating. This
currently appears most likely from far southeast IN into southern OH
and northern KY. Strong updrafts and high precipitable water will
support the potential for wet microbursts capable of producing
damaging gusts.

...Central Appalachians into the Carolinas and GA...
A very moist airmass, characterized by dewpoints in the low to mid
70s, is in place from the GA and Carolinas into the central
Appalachians. Strong heating is forecast to destabilize this airmass
by the early afternoon, resulting in a large reservoir of moderate
buoyancy. Thunderstorm development is anticipated within this
destabilized airmass across the higher terrain of the central
Appalachians as well as any area of low-level convergence across the
remainder of the region. Vertical shear will be weak, and limited
storm organization is anticipated. Even so, the moderate buoyancy
could still support updrafts/downdrafts strong enough to produce
occasional damaging gusts.

...Central Plains/Mid MO Valley into the Mid MS Valley...
Elevated thunderstorms are expected again this evening through
tonight, initiated by both an approaching cold front and warm-air
advection. Ample low-level moisture and moderate buoyancy will be in
place, but vertical shear will be marginal. Isolated strong to
severe storms are expected, but a predominantly elevated and
clustered storm mode should limit the overall severe potential.

..Mosier/Dean.. 08/15/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 161244
SWODY1
SPC AC 161242

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...MID-ATLANTIC...AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts will be possible from this
afternoon into early evening over parts of the Ohio Valley and
Mid-Atlantic. Large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will also be
possible in parts of the central High Plains.

...Lower MO Valley through the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic...
Satellite and regional radar imagery shows several vorticity maxima
embedded within the moderate westerly flow aloft that extends from
the central Plains across the OH Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic.
The strongest vorticity maximum is currently moving through
north-central KS and south-central NE, while more subtle maxima
exist across western IL, southwestern Lower MI/far northern IN, and
western PA. Each of these features will likely contribute to showers
and thunderstorms later today. The most consequential of these
storms will likely occur in tandem with the western IL and
southwestern Lower MI waves as they interact with a moist and
diurnally destabilized airmass from the middle OH Valley into the
Mid-Atlantic. Airmass destabilization appears likely by the early
afternoon, with renewed thunderstorm development anticipated from
southeast Lower MI into southern IN. Moderate vertical shear will be
in place, supporting a predominantly multicellular mode. Mid-level
winds may increase slightly throughout the afternoon, and a
supercell or two is possible over southern OH. A trend towards
clustering and the development of linear segments is anticipated
over time, with damaging gusts as the primary risk throughout the
day.

These storms will continue eastward across WV into Mid-Atlantic
during the late afternoon/early evening. Moderate buoyancy will
support storm persistence and the potential for continued damaging
gusts. Additional thunderstorm development is possible ahead of
these clusters in areas of low-level convergence during the
afternoon. Moderate vertical shear could support a few more
organized storms, with water-loaded downbursts as the primary severe
risk. A tornado or two is also possible, particularly across
northern VA where southerly surface winds could result in adequate
low-level hodograph curvature.

Farther west (across the Lower MO Valley), the well-defined
vorticity maximum currently over north-central KS/southern-central
NE is forecast to be east of the region by the late afternoon, but
airmass destabilization in its wake is uncertain. If the airmass can
recover, additional thunderstorms are likely along a cold front
moving into the region this evening. Strong buoyancy will support
robust updrafts, but modest vertical shear will keep storm
organization limited. If thunderstorms form, a few strong gusts are
possible across this region this evening.

...Northern/Central High Plains...
Scattered thunderstorm development in anticipated this afternoon
across the northern and central High Plains. Thunderstorms over the
northern High Plains will be supported by low-level convergence
along the western edge of the moist airmass over the Plains.
Moderate vertical shear could support a few supercells capable of
hail and strong gusts, but modest buoyancy should keep the overall
severe threat isolated.

Thunderstorm development farther south across the central High
Plains will result from a combination of moist low-level easterlies,
westerly flow aloft and orographic effects. Here, more cellular
development over the high terrain and immediate foothills could pose
a risk for large hail before transitioning towards more linear
structures with strong gusts as the primary severe risk.

..Mosier/Dean.. 08/16/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 181249
SWODY1
SPC AC 181247

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
KANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be
possible this afternoon and evening from the central Plains into the
lower Missouri Valley. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be
possible from the Northern Rockies into the central High Plains, and
eastward into the Midwest and southern Lower Michigan. Damaging
gusts could also occur across parts of Mississippi and Alabama.

...Central Plains into Lower MO Valley...
Warm-air advection showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing
across south-central/southeast NE. This activity is likely
reinforcing an outflow boundary from an earlier MCS that extends
from northwest KS into the NE/KS/MO border vicinity. These showers
and thunderstorms are expected to continue southeastward over the
next few hours, while gradually diminishing in coverage and
intensity. How this outflow modifies will influence the thunderstorm
potential across northern KS this afternoon. If the boundary does
not wash out, there could be a region of notable convergence that
develops across in the northwestern/north-central KS between the
outflow (reinforced by an approaching cold front) and a heat-driven
surface low that develops across western KS. Even with this
potential convergence, convective initiation is uncertain. Most
guidance maintains warm low/mid level temperatures, with the
resultant capping suppressing any thunderstorm development. Steep
lapse rates, moderate deep-layer vertical shear, and strong buoyancy
are expected north of the boundary, and there is a conditional risk
for large to very large hail and strong downdrafts if any updrafts
can mature.

A more certain scenario is expected farther east across eastern KS,
where evening thunderstorm development is anticipated as the
low-level jet increases. Steep lapse rates and moderate vertical
shear support the potential for thunderstorms capable of large hail
during the initially more cellular mode. These storms will likely
cluster quickly, with a trend towards upscale growth into a
forward-propagating MCS which then moves into MO. Damaging gusts
will become the primary risk once this occurs.

...Northern Rockies through the Central High Plains...
A shortwave trough is forecast to progress southeastward from
British Columbia/Alberta into the northern Rockies. Thunderstorm
development is anticipated across the northern Rockies as this wave
interacts with the destabilized and buoyant airmass across the
region. Moderate westerly flow will accompany this wave as well,
supporting the potential for more organized storm structures and the development of several line segments. These widely scattered
thunderstorms are forecast to progress eastward/southeastward this afternoon/evening, with additional development possible from WY into
the central High Plains. The moderate westerly flow aloft, high
storm bases, and steep low-level lapse rates support the potential
for strong to severe wind gusts as these storms progress eastward/southeastward.

...Southern WI/northern IL into Lower MI...
Low-level moisture is expected to increase across the Midwest ahead
of an approaching cold front, resulting in moderate buoyancy by the
late afternoon. Convergence along the front will be weak but still
sufficient for convective initiation, with the combination of
moderate buoyancy and moderate westerly flow aloft supporting strong
to severe storms. An initially more cellular mode could yield large
hail within the strongest storms. A quick transition towards more
linear modes is anticipated, with damaging gusts becoming the
primary severe risk within any strong line segments.

...MS/AL...
Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated across MS and AL
as a weak vorticity maximum progresses southeastward into the warm,
moist, and unstable environment in place across the region. Vertical
shear will be weak, and an outflow-dominant, multicellular mode is
expected. Even so, some clustering into one or more line segments
appears probable, resulting in scattered thunderstorm coverage.
Steep low-level lapse rates and relatively high cloud bases support
the potential for strong downdrafts with any more robust convection.

..Mosier/Bunting.. 08/18/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 191255
SWODY1
SPC AC 191254

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND SOUTHERN AZ....

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this
afternoon across the mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe gusts
and hail will also be possible from the lower to mid Missouri Valley
westward into the Great Plains. A few severe gusts could also occur
in southern Arizona and in the Southeast.

...Mid MO Valley...
Early-morning satellite imagery depicts a low-amplitude shortwave
trough moving through western SD/NE. Showers and thunderstorms are
ongoing downstream of this wave across central/eastern SD and north-central/northeast NE. Recent surface analysis place a corridor
of moderate low-level moisture (i.e. upper 60s dewpoints) from
eastern NE northwestward to a weak surface low over central SD.
Instability will likely build within this corridor as the shortwave
continues eastward, potential resulting increasing thunderstorm
coverage and intensity later this morning into the afternoon across
eastern NE. Vertical shear will be strong enough for organized storm
structures and the potential for a few supercells. This potential
will be largely dictated by how much the airmass can destabilize
amid the cloud cover and limited heating. Large hail is possible
within the initially more cellular activity, but a transition to a
more linear mode results in damaging gusts becoming the primary
hazard with eastward/southeastward extent.

...Ozarks into the Mid MS Valley...
Regional radar imagery shows a large cluster of showers and
thunderstorms progressing across the region. A few stronger updrafts
are possible within this cluster, but limited buoyancy downstream
and a weakening low-level jet are forecast to result in gradually
diminishing storm strength over the next few hours. The airmass is
forecast to gradually recover in the wake of this cluster, with
strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg) in place by the late
afternoon. The shortwave trough mentioned in the preceding paragraph
is forecast to continue southeastward, and ascent attendant to this
wave coupled with weak low-level convergence along the cold front
will support thunderstorm development within this destabilized
airmass this evening. Strengthening mid-level flow will result in
moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear supportive of
supercells. Large hail and damaging gusts are the primary hazards,
but a strengthening low-level jet will result in enough low-level
shear to support the potential for a few tornadoes as well. Storms
will tend to cluster with eastward extent, with the threat for
damaging gusts persisting within these bowing line segments.

...Ohio Valley...
A somewhat secondary area of late afternoon/early evening
thunderstorm development is anticipated from central IL into central
IN and central OH. Moderate buoyancy and strong westerly flow aloft
support the potential for isolated supercells capable of large hail
and isolated damaging gusts.

...Central/Southern High Plains...
Surface analysis places 60s dewpoints into the Colorado Foothills
this morning, increasing into the upper 60s farther east/southeast
into southwest KS. Strong heating/mixing of this airmass is
anticipated this afternoon, promoting the development of moderate
buoyancy. Thunderstorm development is expected across the high
terrain before then progressing eastward into the lower elevations.
Moderate northwesterly flow aloft will be support organized storms
structures, and large hail is possible along the Foothill.
Thereafter, a trend towards an outflow-dominant storm mode will
result in strong to severe gusts across portions of the
central/southern High Plains. Higher probabilities may be needed in
later outlooks if guidance continues to indicate increased coverage.

...AZ...
The presence of monsoon moisture will support moderate buoyancy
across the lower elevations of south-central AZ during the late
afternoon. This should allow for storms that develop over the high
terrain to maintain intensity as they process southwestward into the
lower elevations this afternoon/evening. Steep low to mid-level
lapse rates and large temperature-dewpoint spreads will support the
potential for severe gusts.

...Southeast into northern FL...
A very moist airmass (i.e. dewpoints in the 70s) will be in place
today from MS into FL. Strong heating is anticipated, with high
temperatures in the upper 90s across much of the region. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop, with scattered thunderstorms expected amid modest low-level convergence from MS
into western/southern AL and across the FL Panhandle into northern
FL. The deep low-level moisture combined with steep low-level lapse
rates will support an isolated wind-damage threat during the mid to
late afternoon.

..Mosier/Bunting.. 08/19/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 201248
SWODY1
SPC AC 201246

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Valid 201300Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are possible today and tonight across parts
of the Mid Atlantic, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts. Large
hail and isolated wind damage will be possible with severe storms
from Nebraska into northwest Wisconsin.

...Central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic...
Broad upper troughing currently extends from the northern Plains
through New England, with an embedded shortwave trough progressing
across the Mid MS Valley into the Lower OH Valley. Showers and
thunderstorms are ongoing ahead of this shortwave, and the
expectation is that these showers and thunderstorms will continue
weakening this morning. A moist airmass is in place downstream of
this wave (i.e. from the central Appalachians and upper OH Valley
into the Mid-Atlantic), and reintensification and/or new development
is expected ahead of this wave as it continues northeastward into
this diurnally destabilized region.

Surface low associated with this wave is currently over the IN/OH/KY
border vicinity. This low is forecast to deepen slightly as it moves northeastward just ahead of the parent shortwave trough. Modest
low-level moisture advection will precede this low, and a warm front
is forecast to lift northward across southern PA, northern MD, and
most of NJ. Despite poor lapse rates, ample low-level moisture south
of the front will support moderate buoyancy. Reintensification
and/or new thunderstorm development is expected first near the Blue
Ridge and across the higher terrain of southern PA and northern MD
before increasing in coverage and intensity with eastward extent. A
belt of slightly stronger mid-level flow will precede the shortwave,
resulting 40 to 50 kt of effective bulk shear. This is more than
sufficient to support a mix of supercells and organized line
segments. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary risk, but
southerly winds will enlarge low-level hodographs from the Delmarva
into central NJ, supporting the potential for a couple of tornadoes.

...Carolinas into the Southeast...
Ample low-level moisture and strong heating will result in an
unstable airmass from the Carolinas into much of the Southeast.
Low-level convergence along a cold front that will extend from the
western Carolinas into AR this afternoon will result in scattered
thunderstorm coverage. Vertical shear will be weak, and an
outflow-dominant storm structure is anticipated. Even so, moderate
to strong buoyancy and ample moisture (PW around 2") will support
occasionally strong water-loaded downbursts, particularly from
western TN into AL and MS where high temperatures in the upper 90s
are anticipated.

...Central Plains into the Upper MS Valley...
A reservoir of greater low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the
upper 60s) currently extends from AR/eastern OK northwestward across
much of KS and into NE. Modest low-level moisture advection is
anticipated throughout this corridor today, as a tightening surface
pressure gradient results in stronger southerly surface winds. Mid
60s dewpoints could reach as far north as southwest MN. Moderate to
strong buoyancy will develop within this corridor, with the greatest
buoyancy likely from the CO/KS/NE border vicinity northeastward into
southeast SD. At the same time, a cold front will progress
southeastward across western MN, central SD and western NE,
interacting with this buoyancy to support thunderstorm development. Thunderstorm initiation is anticipated first across the Upper MS
Valley before expanding southwestward.

Moderate northwesterly flow aloft will support supercell wind
profiles, with elongated/straight hodographs, and the threat for all
severe hazards. Large to very large hail (i.e. greater than 2 inch
diameter) will be the primary severe hazard, particularly during the
early evening as the storms move into greater instability. Isolated
strong to severe gusts (i.e. 55 to 75 mph) are possible as well.
Given the supercellular storm mode and low-level southerly flow, a low-probability tornado risk also exists.
Some risk for isolated damaging gusts may persist into the early
overnight across southern NE and northern KS if clustering can occur.

...AZ...
Another round of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening
amid seasonably rich monsoon moisture (dewpoints in the upper 50s to
60s F) and moderate buoyancy. The lower elevations will be
characterized by greater convective inhibition than yesterday, with
the overall buoyancy slightly lower as well. Consequently, despite a
similar upper pattern, the overall potential for strong gusts is
expected to be lower than yesterday. Even so, isolated gusts are
still possible as storms move off the high terrain into the deeply
mixed airmass over the lower elevations.

..Mosier/Bunting.. 08/20/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 211244
SWODY1
SPC AC 211242

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Valid 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...MIDWEST...AND CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail (some
2+ inches) and severe winds may occur over parts of the central
Plains into the Midwest this afternoon and evening. Damaging winds
will also be possible with scattered to numerous thunderstorms
across portions of the Carolinas and Southeast.

...Central Plains into the Midwest...
Elevated and widely spaced thunderstorms have developed this morning
from far southwest SD into central NE, and separately across eastern
OK. Weak low-level warm/moist advection is aiding this activity, and
ascent associated with a northwesterly mid/upper-level jet may also
be supporting the central Plains convection. Evolution of the
ongoing thunderstorms across NE remains unclear, as the airmass
downstream into southeast NE/northern KS will gradually destabilize
through the day. One possibility is for convection to slowly
strengthen and eventually develop into a bowing cluster this
afternoon across these areas, with an associated risk for
severe/damaging winds.

Another scenario is for this morning activity to weaken, and then
for isolated supercells to potentially develop later today in a
rather unstable airmass and strongly sheared mid/upper-level
northwesterly flow regime along/south of a front. Large hail (some
2+ inches) would be a threat with any sustained supercells, and
severe gusts could also occur as lapse rates become steepened.
Either scenario appears plausible, with recent high-resolution
guidance varying on possible solutions, including the potential for
one or more clusters to develop and persist tonight. Have therefore
maintained the Slight Risk across the central Plains with minimal changes.

Thunderstorms are also occurring this morning over parts of WI to
the east of a weak surface low and associated mid-level
perturbation. While effective bulk shear is forecast to remain
fairly modest (around 20-30 kt), a mix of multicells and marginal
supercells is expected to develop later this afternoon across parts
of southern WI into northern/central IL along and ahead of a weak
front. Severe hail may occur with any persistent cells, while the
threat for damaging winds should increase as small clusters form and
spread east-southeastward through the early evening. While low-level
flow is not forecast to become overly strong, sufficient veering
with height through low/mid levels should exist to support modest
low-level hodograph curvature and some risk for a brief tornado.

...Carolinas into the Southeast/Lower Mississippi Valley...
Convection continues this morning along/ahead of a surface cold
front from central AL northeastward into the western NC. Modest
large-scale ascent associated with a weak mid-level shortwave trough
over the TN Valley is likely aiding this activity. Around 20-30 kt
of mid-level flow should be present today over parts of the
Carolinas, with similar values of deep-layer shear forecast.
Moderate to locally strong instability is expected to develop this
afternoon ahead of the front across the central/eastern Carolinas,
as a rather moist low-level airmass remains over these areas.
Thunderstorms should gradually increase in both coverage and
intensity this afternoon, with sufficient deep-layer shear for some
updraft organization. Multicell clusters capable of producing
isolated to scattered damaging winds should be the main threat as
low-level lapse rates become steepened with filtered daytime
heating. Still, some of the stronger cores could produce occasional
hail as well, even though lapse rates aloft appear poor. This
convection will spread towards the Atlantic Coast through the
afternoon/early evening before eventually weakening with the loss of
daytime heating.

Farther south across the Gulf Coast states into the lower MS Valley,
mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are forecast to be
weaker (generally less than 20 kt). Even so, at least an isolated
threat for damaging winds should exist with scattered thunderstorms
that develop along/south of the front and spread southward through
the afternoon, as the airmass should become quite unstable with
robust diurnal heating.

..Gleason/Broyles.. 08/21/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
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ACUS01 KWNS 221204
SWODY1
SPC AC 221202

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0702 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging winds should
occur this afternoon across parts of the Ohio Valley into the
central Appalachians, with isolated damaging winds possible across
the lower Mississippi Valley to the southern Plains/Ozarks. Isolated
hail and damaging winds may also occur over parts of the central
Plains and northern Rockies into the Northwest.

...Ohio Valley into the Central Appalachians and Tennessee/Lower
Mississippi Valleys...
Upper troughing over Ontario and the Great Lakes will advance slowly
eastward today across the OH Valley/Midwest in tandem with a weak
surface cold front. Latest visible satellite imagery this morning
shows mostly clear skies present across the upper OH Valley
vicinity. While low-level moisture will remain fairly modest
(surface dewpoints generally in the 60s) and lapse rates aloft will
be near moist adiabatic, it still appears likely that around
1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE will develop ahead of the front by early
afternoon. A gradual increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity
is expected, with 20-30 kt of effective bulk shear fostering enough
updraft organization for multicell clusters capable of producing
scattered damaging winds. These thunderstorms will spread eastward
from the upper OH Valley into the central Appalachians this
afternoon and evening before eventually weakening with eastward
extent. Isolated hail may occur with the stronger cores that
develop, but the poor mid-level lapse rates present may limit this
threat to some extent. There also appears to be some chance for
strong to locally severe thunderstorms to develop along/east of the
Blue Ridge Mountains this afternoon. If this occurs, then occasional
damaging winds would be the main threat with this activity.

There may be less thunderstorm coverage with southwestward extent
along/ahead of the front into the TN Valley/Mid-South, as
large-scale ascent will be weaker across these regions. Still, any
convection which can develop and be sustained will exist in a
favorable environment for damaging winds, with moderate to strong
instability and sufficient deep-layer shear present to support
multicell clusters.

...Southern/Central Plains into the Ozarks...
On the eastern periphery of upper ridging over the
Southwest/Rockies, thunderstorms have developed early this morning
across parts of the southern/central Plains. This convection is
being aided by modest low-level warm/moist advection, and multiple
weak mid-level disturbances moving through the northwesterly
mid-level flow across the Plains. While substantial MLCIN is
present, sufficient MUCAPE coupled with moderate to strong
deep-layer shear should continue to support updraft organization.
Isolated hail and strong to locally severe gusts may occur with the
more robust cores, and severe probabilities have been adjusted to
account for ongoing convection. Subsequent development of
thunderstorms this afternoon will be dependent on how this morning's
convection evolves, with some weakening possible as a modest
low-level jet gradually lessens over the next several hours. Still, redevelopment is forecast this afternoon along/south of a weak
front. Moderate to locally strong instability, very steep low-level
lapse rates, and moderate northwesterly deep-layer shear should
support some clustering/updraft organization. Occasional hail and
severe gusts may occur as thunderstorms spread southward across the
southern Plains/Ozarks this afternoon/evening.

A separate area of convection is forecast to develop this afternoon
along the Front Range/Laramie Mountains in a weak post-frontal
low-level upslope regime. While effective bulk shear should be
somewhat weaker across this region, a narrow corridor of greater
instability is forecast across the central High Plains. This may
support loosely organized multicells and marginal supercell
structures with an isolated severe hail/wind threat. This activity
should spread slowly southeastward off the higher terrain before
weakening this evening with the loss of daytime heating.

...Great Basin/Northern Rockies into the Northwest...
Upper ridging will remain prominent from the Southwest into the
northern Rockies/High Plains today. On the western periphery of this
ridging, an upper trough/low will move northward along/near the
coast of the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced south-southwesterly
mid-level flow will overspread parts of the Great Basin, northern
Rockies, and Northwest through the period, with the strongest winds
forecast over WA/OR. Low-level moisture remains fairly limited over
most of these regions, with somewhat greater surface dewpoints
present over parts of the Great Basin.

Diurnal heating should support modest destabilization and weak
instability from the northern Great Basin into the interior Pacific
Northwest and northern Rockies. Thunderstorms will develop this
afternoon as the large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough/low
overspreads these regions in tandem with orographic effects across
the higher terrain. Where low-level lapse rates can become
sufficiently steepened with a dry/well-mixed sub-cloud layer,
isolated severe/damaging winds may occur. The overall severe threat
should be limited by weak instability.

..Gleason/Broyles.. 08/22/2026

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 231254
SWODY1
SPC AC 231252

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND GREAT BASIN...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe/damaging
winds are forecast across parts of the northern Rockies/Plains this
afternoon and evening. Other thunderstorms with mainly a severe wind
threat may occur over portions of the northern Great Basin.

...Great Basin into the Northern Rockies/High Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough evident on water vapor satellite
imagery this morning across the Pacific Northwest will move
east-northeastward today across the northern Rockies and western
Canada. 40-50 kt of west-southwesterly mid-level winds will
overspread the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains of
central/eastern MT by this afternoon. As large-scale ascent
preceding the mid-level trough spreads eastward, thunderstorms
should initially form over the higher terrain of western MT.
Downstream destabilization of a sufficiently moist low-level airmass
will support the development of weak instability (MLCAPE generally
500-1000 J/kg) into central/eastern MT and vicinity. 30-40 kt of
effective bulk shear will support a mix of multicells and supercells
initially moving off the higher terrain, with both severe hail and
wind gusts possible. With time, upscale growth into bowing clusters
seems probable with eastward extent in MT, and an increasing risk
for severe/damaging winds. Given the very well-mixed boundary layer
and enhanced mid-level flow expected, some of these gusts could
exceed 75 mph on an isolated basis.

A somewhat separate area of convection should develop this afternoon
across parts of the northern Great Basin. While mid-level flow will
be somewhat weaker across this region compared to locations farther
north, the presence of generally 50s surface dewpoints across
northern UT and vicinity suggests that sufficient low-level moisture
exists to support robust updrafts. As daytime heating occurs and
low-level lapse rates steepen, loosely organized cells/clusters
should form and subsequently spread northeastward while posing a
threat for scattered severe gusts.

...Northern/Central Plains...
A band of elevated thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from
southern SD into NE, aided by modest low-level warm/moist advection.
This activity should gradually weaken through the morning as the
low-level jet subsides, but an isolated threat for severe hail may
continue in the short term given sufficient MUCAPE and deep-layer
shear to support supercells. A narrow corridor of moderate to
locally strong instability is forecast to develop this afternoon
across the western Dakotas/NE along/east of a lee surface trough
where greater low-level moisture will reside. At least isolated
thunderstorms should develop by peak afternoon heating across these
areas, with west-northwesterly flow strengthening with height
through mid/upper levels. Around 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear will
support supercells and associated threat for large hail with any
sustained surface-based convection.

Overall coverage remains uncertain given weak/nebulous large-scale
ascent, but some guidance shows these cells growing upscale into a
cluster or two this evening with some severe wind risk. Regardless,
severe hail should be the main concern with supercells initially,
and the Slight Risk has been nudged westward a little to account for
the probable zone of initiation. Weaker mid-level flow is expected
with southward extent into the central High Plains, but occasional
hail and gusty winds could still occur with any high-based
convection that develops and spreads eastward through the early evening.

...Northeast Oklahoma/Southeast Kansas into the Ozarks...
A weak mid-level disturbance aiding convection this morning over
SD/NE will move southeastward today on the eastern periphery of
upper ridging centered over the southern High Plains/Southwest. This
feature, in tandem with increasing isentropic ascent associated with
a modest south-southwesterly low-level jet, may aid thunderstorm
development late tonight into early Monday morning across parts of
northeast OK/southeast KS into the Ozarks. Instability is forecast
to remain fairly weak (MUCAPE generally less than 1000 J/kg), but
some clustering may occur with a low chance for gusty/locally
damaging winds. No changes have been made to the Marginal Risk
across this area, as confidence remains limited in both overall
convective intensity and evolution.

...Northeast...
An upper trough/low centered over Ontario and the Great Lakes this
morning will translate slowly eastward across the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast through the period. A corresponding weak/occluding surface
low will make only modest eastward progress into Quebec through the
day, with a cold front forecast to move eastward across parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast by this evening. Cloud cover is prevalent
across these regions per latest visible satellite imagery. This,
coupled with poor lapse rates aloft (reference 12Z observed
soundings from ALB/OKX), will limit the amount of destabilization
that can occur through this afternoon with filtered daytime heating.
Still, enhanced south-southwesterly mid-level flow will be present
today across parts of NY into New England, with around 30-35 kt of
deep-layer shear supporting some updraft organization. Current
expectations are for cells and clusters that develop along/ahead of
this front this afternoon to pose a threat for mainly isolated
damaging winds as they spread east-northeastward through this
evening before eventually weakening. Marginally severe hail may also
occur with the strongest cores. But, the weak instability and poor
lapse rates aloft should generally limit the overall severe threat.

...Southeast...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop later today
along/south of a weak front draped across the lower MS Valley into
the Gulf Coast states, and continuing northeastward into the
Carolinas. With the exception of the Carolinas, low/mid-level flow
will remain quite weak for much of the Southeast. Still, any cells
which can develop may pose an isolated threat for damaging winds, as
moderate to strong MLCAPE coupled with steep low-level lapse rates
through daytime heating support the potential for wet microbursts.
On the southern periphery of mid/upper troughing over the Great Lakes/Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, stronger flow aloft will exist
across the Carolinas. This may foster some updraft organization
given sufficient deep-layer shear. But, most guidance continues to
show any convection that forms this afternoon across the eastern
Carolinas will move quickly offshore.

...Arizona...
To the west of a mid/upper-level anticyclone centered over the
southern Rockies/High Plains, weak southeasterly mid-level flow will
exist today across southern/central AZ. Instability across this
region is forecast to remain rather muted/weak owing to shallow
low-level moisture. A deeply mixed boundary layer is forecast to
develop with robust daytime heating, but confidence in thunderstorms
developing over the higher terrain of southeast AZ and subsequent
clustering into the lower deserts remains low. Even so, have
maintained the Marginal Risk for severe gusts with no changes.

..Gleason/Broyles.. 08/23/2026

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 241232
SWODY1
SPC AC 241230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Valid 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND COASTAL CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging
winds will be possible this afternoon and evening across the Dakotas
and northwest Minnesota as well as the central High Plains. Other
severe thunderstorms with mainly a damaging wind threat may focus
across the lower Mississippi Valley and coastal Carolinas.

...Dakotas/Upper Midwest into the Central High Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough over Alberta/Saskatchewan will move
eastward across the Canadian prairie provinces through tonight, with
a belt of moderately strong flow aloft and multiple MCVs influencing
the northern Plains to Upper Midwest. Residual/ongoing convection
this morning and lingering cloud cover will be complicating factors
for thunderstorm development and evolution later today.

Even so, widely scattered thunderstorms should develop by late
afternoon or early evening within a moist/unstable airmass near an eastward-moving front and weak surface wave across central/eastern
ND. Other convection may initiate and then move southeastward from south-central Canada. Around 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear will
support supercells initially with a large hail threat. The
development of east/southeastward-moving clusters should eventually
occur this evening, with scattered severe/damaging winds possible.

Farther south and a bit more removed from the stronger cyclonic flow
aloft, additional high-based thunderstorms are expected to form by
late afternoon/early evening across the Black Hills/western NE in
the vicinity of the surface front. Strengthening and sufficient
veering of winds with height through mid levels should support
initial supercells capable of large hail, prior to a clustering of
these southeastward-moving thunderstorms. Scattered severe/damaging
winds may occur with this activity through mid/late evening across
the central High Plains before increasing MLCIN encourages gradual weakening.

...Coastal Carolinas...
The Carolinas will be influenced by modestly enhanced cyclonic flow
aloft today, with a moist and moderately to strongly unstable
environment forecast along the coastal plain to the east of a
slow-moving front. This favorable instability and around 30-40 kt of
effective bulk shear should support initial supercells with some
hail risk this afternoon. However, scattered damaging winds will
probably become the primary concern as thunderstorms increase in
coverage. Severe potential should tend to wane by early evening as
convection moves offshore and/or weakens with the loss of daytime heating.

...Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast...
Widely scattered elevated convection has developed this morning from
southeast KS into AR in a low-level warm advection regime. This
convection will shift south-southeastward today, potentially
becoming surface based into the afternoon as diurnal heating
supports downstream destabilization of a rather moist low-level
airmass. Even though deep-layer shear will remain weak, an upscale-growing/forward-propagating cluster may evolve during the
afternoon, with scattered damaging wind potential increasing across
the ArkLaMiss south-southeastward toward the central Gulf Coast.

...Northern Great Basin into the Central Rockies...
Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected to
develop this afternoon across parts of the northern Great Basin into
the central Rockies amid steepening low-level lapse rates with a
very well-mixed boundary layer. Since this convection will develop
along the periphery of stronger flow aloft, modest organization is
possible even though low-level moisture and related instability
should remain weak. Occasional dry microbursts may occur, some of
which could pose an isolated threat for severe gusts.

...Maine...
Across northern ME, partially clearing skies this afternoon should
encourage surface temperatures to rise into the 70s, resulting in
weak instability (up to 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE) given relatively poor
mid-level lapse rates. Even so, a southerly mid/upper-level jet will
overspread northern New England during the afternoon, resulting in
highly elongated hodographs and 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear.
Any thunderstorms that can develop and be sustained could become
organized multicells capable of producing isolated damaging gusts
and perhaps marginally severe hail.

..Gleason/Broyles.. 08/24/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
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ACUS01 KWNS 251242
SWODY1
SPC AC 251240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the
central/southern Plains this afternoon and evening, and also
possible across portions of the upper Mississippi Valley. Severe
wind gusts and large hail are the primary hazards.

...Central/Southern Plains...
Between upper ridging centered over the Southwest and a shortwave
trough over south-central Canada, the large-scale pattern across the central/southern Plains will undergo modest amplification, with a
resultant increase in northwesterly flow aloft by late today into
tonight. A surface cold front will also move southeastward across
the central High Plains. Ongoing convection notwithstanding, this
front will intercept a moist and unstable airmass into parts of
western/central NE, which will likely aid additional thunderstorm
development by mid to late afternoon. An orographically influenced
increase in thunderstorms is also expected along the Raton
Mesa/Front Range regions.

With gradually strengthening northwesterlies aloft through the
afternoon, effective bulk shear across NE and western KS will
generally reach 30-40 kt. This region will exist on the eastern
periphery of a stout EML, which should support some initial
supercells capable of large hail, most probable across
western/southern NE into northern/western KS. Influenced by the
front and aggregating outflow, one or more southeastward-moving
clusters capable of producing severe gusts (some 75+ mph) and wind
damage should evolve this evening across southern NE into KS.

Farther south, a similar upscale-growing trend will probably also
occur with high-based thunderstorms developing off the Raton Mesa
vicinity into the OK/TX Panhandles, and perhaps eventually western
OK. Even though mid-level winds and deep-layer shear will remain
more modest with southward extent into these areas, a favorable
thermodynamic environment with rather steep low/mid-level lapse
rates should support isolated to scattered severe/damaging winds
spreading east-southeastward through the evening with this convection.

...Eastern Minnesota/Western Wisconsin/Western Upper Michigan...
A mid-level shortwave trough (and related mid/high-level westerly
jet) will dig southeastward from southern Manitoba toward northern
MN and Lake Superior through the period. Ongoing morning convection
and cloud cover may curb destabilization to some extent, and keep
the surface warm sector relatively narrow this afternoon. Even so,
strong to severe thunderstorm development should still occur near an eastward-advancing cold front by mid/late afternoon. Diurnal heating
of a moist low-level airmass (generally 60s surface dewpoints) will
contribute to a narrow zone of around 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE across
the eastern half of MN/far northwest WI ahead of the front by late
afternoon. Some supercells will be possible initially, aside from
more prevalent multicells/clusters. Large hail and damaging winds
are expected to be the primary hazards as convection tracks eastward
through the evening, before weakening commences with the onset of
nocturnal cooling.

...Southeast...
While mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are expected to
remain weak, a moist and moderately unstable airmass will exist
along/south of a stalled front across the Southeast today. As
low-level lapse rates gradually steepen through the afternoon,
isolated pulse-type thunderstorms capable of producing water-loaded
downdrafts and occasional wind damage may occur. This currently
appears most probable across parts of coastal SC into southern GA
and northern FL, although some gusty thunderstorm winds may also
occur across parts of the central Gulf Coast, such as southern LA.

..Gleason/Broyles.. 08/25/2026

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 261246
SWODY1
SPC AC 261245

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND
OZARKS/MID-SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast today
across parts of the southern Great Lakes into the Midwest,
central/southern High Plains, and the Ozarks into the Mid-South and
Lower Mississippi Valley. Severe/damaging winds should be the main
threat across these regions, though large hail is also possible,
particularly across the central High Plains.

...Southern Great Lakes into the Midwest...
A mid-level shortwave trough over the upper Great Lakes this morning
will progress eastward today across southern Ontario. The basal
portion of this trough will overspread parts of the southern Great
Lakes and Midwest, with a surface cold front moving
east-southeastward across these regions as well. Lapse rates aloft
are forecast to remain rather poor, which may tend to limit updraft
strength to some extent. Still, a corridor of destabilization is
expected along/ahead of the front through the afternoon, with at
least moderate instability likely from eastern IL northeastward into
southern Lower MI. Thunderstorms should develop along/ahead of the
front as convective temperatures are reached by 19-22Z.
Low/mid-level winds will tend to remain fairly modest and veered to
westerly, with up to 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear fostering some
updraft organization.

A mix of multicell clusters and marginal supercells should pose a
threat for both hail and damaging winds, with the wind threat
potentially becoming the primary risk with eastward extent into the
Midwest as thunderstorms grow upscale. A brief embedded tornado may
also occur, but low-level flow is forecast to remain rather veered,
with limited hodograph curvature noted in most NAM/RAP forecast
soundings. The overall severe threat will likely diminish quickly
this evening as convection outpaces the low-level
moisture/instability, and as nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer occurs.

...Ozarks into the Mid-South and Lower Mississippi Valley...
Thunderstorms have developed this morning across southeast MO/far
southern IL, and they should continue to track south-southeastward
into the Mid-South along the MUCAPE gradient noted in latest
mesoanalysis. While sub-severe for now given substantial MLCIN
present, there is some potential for this activity to persist and
eventually strengthen later today across parts of western TN into
northern MS and vicinity as the boundary layer gradually
destabilizes. Have adjusted/expanded wind probabilities a bit
eastward in western TN/northern MS into northern/central AL to
account for this possibility.

Otherwise, additional thunderstorm development is also likely this
afternoon along/near a weak surface front from southern MO into AR
and eastern OK. This activity may be aided by a remnant MCV that
will move eastward across the southern Plains through the day.
Modest deep-layer shear should support some updraft organization,
with multicell clusters likely the dominant mode. High total
precipitable water values and large buoyancy will support robust
downbursts with primarily a scattered damaging wind threat.
Occasional hail may also occur with the strongest cores given the
degree of instability forecast. Some high-resolution guidance
continues to show a southward-moving storm cluster across the lower
MS Valley this evening/tonight. As such, there is potential for at
least isolated damaging winds to persist across parts of southern LA/MS.

...Central/Southern High Plains...
Around 25-35 kt of west-northwesterly mid-level flow will be present
over the southern/central High Plains today, with a mid/upper-level
ridge remaining centered over the Southwest/Four Corners. Modest
low-level upslope flow across the central High Plains should support
convective initiation by early/mid afternoon over the higher terrain
and Front Range. Moderate instability aided by modestly steepened
mid-level lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear should all act
to aid updraft organization, with both supercells and clusters
possible. There is still some uncertainty with convective
development farther east across southwest NE this afternoon
along/near a front. But, any thunderstorms that can form and persist
across this area would also pose a severe risk. Both large hail and
severe gusts may occur with convection that spreads
east-southeastward through the afternoon and evening, with some
potential for upscale growth/additional clustering into western KS
this evening.

Farther south across the southern High Plains, mid-level flow and
related deep-layer shear should be somewhat weaker. Still,
convection that develops across central into eastern NM may become
loosely organized while posing an isolated threat for severe gusts
given the presence of a very well-mixed boundary layer. This threat
may continue into parts of the OK/TX Panhandles and west TX through
the evening before eventually weakening.

..Gleason/Broyles.. 08/26/2026

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 271240
SWODY1
SPC AC 271238

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Valid 271300Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST...AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts
of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic today. Damaging winds, severe
hail, and a tornado or two may accompany these thunderstorms. Large
to very large hail and severe gusts are also possible across parts
of southwest South Dakota into western/central Nebraska and
northwest Kansas.

...Mid-Atlantic/Northeast...
An elongated mid/upper-level trough with closed low over Hudson Bay
will encompass much of the eastern CONUS today. Embedded within this large-scale troughing, a mid-level shortwave trough with modestly
enhanced southwesterly winds (around 25-35 kt) will advance
northeastward through the day across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
At the surface, a weak low over eastern Ontario will develop into
Quebec this afternoon, with a trailing cold front advancing
southeastward across the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast through the period.
Stronger daytime heating is forecast with southward extent across
the Mid-Atlantic ahead of the cold front, with cloud cover
potentially limiting heating somewhat across the Northeast. Even so,
a zone of moderate instability should develop by this afternoon
across these regions, with sufficient deep-layer shear for some
updraft organization. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to
gradually increase in coverage and intensity by 17-20Z ahead of the
surface front and a lee trough along/east of the Appalachians. A mix
of multicells and supercells should pose a threat for both severe
hail and damaging winds, especially from the northern Mid-Atlantic
northward into NY and vicinity. A tornado or two may also occur,
with modest hodograph curvature noted in various NAM/RAP forecast
soundings from northern MD northeastward to western New England.

...Central Plains...
The central Plains will be sandwiched between upper ridging over the
Southwest and upper troughing over eastern Canada today, with modest northwesterly flow aloft persisting through the period. Large-scale
ascent is forecast to remain rather weak/nebulous, with some
guidance suggesting a weak mid-level impulse will crest the ridge
and aid convective initiation across parts of southwest SD into
western/central NE this afternoon. A corridor of greater low-level
moisture (generally 60s surface dewpoints) will be in place across
this region. Daytime heating of this moist airmass coupled with the
presence of steep mid-level lapse rates will help foster moderate to
locally strong instability and erode lingering MLCIN by 19-21Z.
While robust convective development and overall coverage still
remains somewhat uncertain given the weak forcing, a rather
favorable environment for supercells will exist. Any sustained
supercells will be capable of producing large hail (some 2+ inches)
as they track south-southeastward through the late afternoon into
the evening. The potential for severe/damaging gusts is also
uncertain, as most guidance does not show a cluster developing this
evening. An isolated threat for severe hail/gusts may also exist
farther west/south across the CO Front Range to Raton Mesa vicinity,
although deep-layer shear should be weaker across these areas.

...Northern Rockies/High Plains...
A mid-level jet on the southeast periphery of upper troughing over
the eastern Pacific and western Canada will translate northeastward
across the northern Rockies today. Enhanced west-southwesterly flow
and lift associated with this jet will likely aid isolated to
scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon across parts of
the northern Rockies, with this activity spreading into the adjacent
High Plains through the evening. While low-level moisture will
remain limited/shallow across these regions, steep low/mid-level
lapse rates amid a well-mixed boundary layer coupled with moderate
to strong deep-layer shear should support a threat for isolated
severe gusts with the high-based convection that develops.

...Great Basin...
High-based thunderstorms should also develop this afternoon across
portions of northeast NV into northwest UT and southeast ID. While low/mid-level winds and related thunderstorm organization will
likely be somewhat weaker/limited compared to areas farther north,
steep lapse rates and large DCAPE will support potential for strong
to severe outflow gusts as this convection spreads northeastward
into the early evening.

...South-Central/Coastal Texas into Southern Louisiana...
Ongoing thunderstorms across southern LA may pose a threat for gusty
winds this morning before they move offshore. Additional
thunderstorms may develop this afternoon from parts of south-central
TX towards the upper TX Coast, with isolated severe/damaging
downburst winds possible given ample moisture/instability forecast.
Weak deep-layer shear should limit the overall severe threat.

..Gleason/Broyles.. 08/27/2026

$$
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