AWUS01 KWNH 031434
FFGMPD MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-031900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0933
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1033 AM EDT Mon Aug 03 2026

Areas affected...far northern Mid-Atlanitc into Northeast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 031432Z - 031900Z

SUMMARY...The threat of flash flooding will continue over far
eastern PA into NJ, southern NY into portions of southern and
central New England into the afternoon. Potential will exist for
an additional 2 to 4+ inches through 19Z before a cold front
begins to end the flash flood threat from west to east.

DISCUSSION...14Z radar imagery showed a broken axis of showers and thunderstorms extending from southern NJ into Long Island and
southeastern New England. An embedded low to mid-level vorticity
axis was located over southern ME with another weaker vorticity
max over southwestern NJ near the eastern shore of the Delaware
Bay, each associated with a relative surge in rainfall intensity,
although the vorticity max over ME is moving into a more stable
environment. Areas of flash flooding were ongoing across the
northern Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast with MRMS-estimated
rainfall of about 2-4 inches over the past 6-12 hours.

14Z surface observations showed a slow moving cold front extending
from central NY into east-central PA, preceded by impressive
moisture with 2.0 to 2.5 inch PW values from the PA/NJ border into southern/coastal New England, along with roughly 500-1500 J/kg
MLCAPE. Aloft, a strengthening 100+ kt jet streak was located over
northern PA into central NY, placing enhanced upper level
divergence over the northern Mid-Atlantic into southern New England.

Areas of flash flooding are likely to continue as waves of heavier
rainfall continue to generate heavy rain over the region with
unidirectional southwesterly flow supporting areas of training at
times. Despite the relatively weak instability, high moisture will
compensate to help support hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches
(locally higher possible). Some modest strengthening of the upper
level jet streak is expected through the early afternoon but
forward progression of the cold front is expected to mark the
western edge of the flash flood threat as the boundary advances
eastward into the early afternoon. Stripes of an additional 2 to 4
inches of rain (locally higher) are expected to maintain scattered
areas of flash flooding with enhanced impacts over the urban I-95 corridor.

Otto

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BOX...BTV...GYX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44067091 43877035 43646988 43276952 42776950
41987035 41427092 40867180 40317311 39367363
38927449 38987514 39837551 41177473 43017285
43967160

$$
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