Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
323 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Valid 00Z Wed Aug 19 2026 - 00Z Fri Aug 21 2026

...Potential for severe storms across the central Plains with heavy and
flash flooding threats across the Midwest...

...Severe storms across mid-Mississippi Valley Wednesday to Wednesday
night...

...Dangerous heat persists in the South and Southeast while building into
the Southwest...


Around of heavy showers and strong to severe thunderstorms developing
across the northern Plains will move toward the Upper Midwest associated
with a cold front.
Meanwhile,a slight risk of severe thunderstorms is forecast over northern
Iowa, southern Wisconsin, extreme southeastern Minnesota, and farther
south across the central Plains as the cold front from the north collides
with a warm front from the south. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast from northeastern Colorado, central Nebraska, northwestern and northeastern Kansas. WPC and SPC both have Slight Risks out for Excessive Rainfall and severe storms in the heart of the Midwest where flash
flooding and storms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds may occur.

As the cold front continues to track east towards the Northeast on
Wednesday while low pressure in the southern Plains helps produce
additional storms from the central Rockies to as far east as the Ohio
Valley through Wednesday night. On Thursday, WPC and SPC both have a level
2 risk for Excessive Rainfall and severe thunderstorms across the mid-Mississippi Valley. On Friday, as the front progresses southward, WPC
has a marginal risk of Excessive Rainfall across much of the mid-South,
the Mid-Atlantic, and across the Desert Southwest.

Regarding temperatures, the southern tier of the Lower 48 remains mired in
a steamy air-mass even by mid-late August standards. Record highs and
record warm minimum temperatures will be common with the Southeast at the
heart of the anomalous heat through today. By Wednesday, as upper-level
ridging strengthens over the Southwest, some cases of record breaking
warmth are expected in the Desert Southwest and Southern Plains. Extreme
Heat Warnings are in effect for much of the Desert Southwest, with
widespread Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories stretching from the Dallas/Fort Worth and Oklahoma City metro areas eastward to the Southeast coast. Overnight lows will be so warm (low 80s in some cases) that, when combined with oppressive dew points, little-to-no relief from the
scorching daytime highs will be available. Residents are advised to follow proper heat safety tips by limiting outdoor activity, staying hydrated, ensuring access to A/C or cooling centers, and checking on vulnerable
friends, neighbors, and family members.


Kong/Green


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php


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Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Valid 00Z Thu Aug 20 2026 - 00Z Sat Aug 22 2026

...Heavy rain and flash flooding threats across the Midwest, Ohio Valley
and southern Arizona today, shifting east to the Mid-Atlantic coast on Thursday...

...Severe storms possible across mid-Mississippi Valley today through tonight...

... Severe storms possible across Nebraska and flash flooding possible in
the Southeast on Friday...

...Dangerous heat persists in the South while building into the
Southwest...

Heavy rain and thunderstorms have developed across much of eastern
Nebraska moving into southern portions of Iowa and northern portions of Missouri due to a cold front moving through the central plains. SPC has a slight risk for severe weather where these storms are capable of producing severe wind gusts and hail as daytime heating maximize. WPC has a slight
risk of excessive rainfall also in the general area. Clusters of organized heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue traveling eastward across
the central Plains toward the mid-Mississippi Valley this evening through tonight. These thunderstorms are forecast to become more focused in the mid-Mississippi Valley through tonight ahead of a low pressure wave
traveling eastward. SPC has a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across
the mid-Mississippi Valley and WPC has a slight risk of excessive rainfall extending farther north into the Midwest and Ohio Valley.

Meanwhile, monsoonal showers and thunderstorms will be most active during
the late-day hours across the Four Corners states, where the WPC has highlighted a marginal risk of Excessive Rainfall through the next couple
of days. In addition, a slight risk is in place across southern Arizona
for today.

By Thursday, the cold front will advance farther eastward and begin to
merge with the meandering front to the south. A convergence zone
sandwiched between these two fronts will focus a corridor of enhanced
rainfall. Heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms is possible along this corridor roughly from I-95 east to the northern Mid-Atlantic coast. WPC
has highlighted this area for a slight risk of excessive rainfall mainly
later on Thursday when daytime heating is maximized. In addition, SPC has highlighted a slight risk for severe weather where the main threat is
damaging wind gusts. By Thursday night into early Friday, the heavy rain
should temporarily exit the Mid-Atlantic coast as a low-pressure wave
slides off the coast of southern New England. Another round of severe
weather is possible for eastern Nebraska into Minnesota and Wisconsin
Thursday afternoon into the evening. A weak low pressure system will
migrate from Minnesota into the U.P. Michigan, creating a weak surface
front along with dew points in the low to mid 60s to generate severe
weather. SPC has outlined a slight risk of severe weather for the area
where the main threat will be large hail, and isolated wind damage.

On Friday, much of central and eastern Nebraska will yet again experience another round of severe weather. A low pressure system will develop along
a surface trough with ample moisture and strong instability in place to initiate some supercell thunderstorms. SPC has highlight a slight risk for severe weather where main threat will be isolated to scattered damaging
hail (some greater than 2 inches),and some severe wind gusts for Friday afternoon into the evening hours. As for the Southeast, scattered to
numerous thunderstorms are forecast within a very moist and unstable environment along a surface trough. Single to multi-cell convection will
pose the risk for excessive rainfall where WPC has highlighted a slight
risk for excessive rainfall from northern portions of South Carolina to
the southern portions of Virginia.


Temperature-wise, the southern tier of the Lower 48 remains mired in a
steamy air-mass even by mid-to-late August standards. Record highs and
record warm minimum temperatures will be common with the Southeast at the
heart of the anomalous heat through today. The upper ridge is forecast to strengthen over the Southwest while cool Canadian air dips further into
the Great Lakes. Some cases of record-breaking warmth are expected in the Desert Southwest and Southern Plains as temperatures dip into the 40s near
the Canadian border in the upper Midwest. Extreme Heat Warnings are in
effect for much of the Desert Southwest, and Extreme Heat Warnings remain
in effect across portions of the southern Plains to the Deep South. Heat Advisories are in effect for all of Florida and the southeast U.S. coast. Overnight lows will be so warm (low 80s in some cases) that, when combined
with oppressive dew points, little-to-no relief from the scorching daytime highs will be available. Residents are advised to follow proper heat
safety tips by limiting outdoor activity, staying hydrated, ensuring
access to A/C or cooling centers, and checking on vulnerable friends, neighbors, and family members.


Green/Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

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* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Valid 12Z Thu Aug 20 2026 - 12Z Sat Aug 22 2026

...Heavy rain, flash flooding, and severe weather threats spreading from
the Ohio/Tennessee Valley this morning to the Mid-Atlantic coast later
today...

...Severe thunderstorms possible across the upper Midwest to the central
Plains today, mainly over the north-central Plains on Friday...

...Dangerous heat persists in the South while building into the
Southwest...

As a cool air mass from Canada advances toward the northeastern U.S.
against a persistent and stagnant heat dome anchored across the southern
tier states over the next couple of days, the focus of heavy rain, flash flooding, and severe weather and thunderstorms will shift from the Ohio/Tennessee Valley this morning to the Mid-Atlantic coast later today.
A convergence zone sandwiched between the stationary front to the south
and the cold front from Canada will focus a corridor of enhanced rainfall. Heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms is expected along this corridor
roughly from I-95 east to the northern Mid-Atlantic coast. WPC has
highlighted this area for a slight risk of excessive rainfall mainly later today when daytime heating is maximized. In addition, SPC has highlighted
a slight risk for severe weather where the main threat is damaging wind
gusts. By tonight into early Friday, the heavy rain should temporarily
exit the Mid-Atlantic coast as a low-pressure wave slides off the coast of southern New England. Some lighter rainfall may wrap around the low
pressure wave toward southern New England on Friday. Day-time heating is forecast to trigger the next round of heavy thunderstorms later on Friday across the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic where a slight risk of excessive rainfall is highlighted. From Friday night into Saturday morning, showers
and embedded thunderstorms are expected to advance up the Mid-Atlantic
states as a trough of low pressure deepens over the Great Lakes.

Over the midsection of the country, another round of severe weather is
possible for eastern Nebraska into Minnesota and Wisconsin this afternoon
into the evening ahead of a front trailing from a low pressure wave moving across Minnesota into the U.P. Michigan. SPC has outlined a slight risk of severe weather for the area where the main threat will be large hail, and isolated wind damage.

On Friday, much of central and eastern Nebraska will yet again experience another round of severe weather as the trailing front pushes against the northern boundary of the heatwave across the South where ample moisture,
strong instability and shear are in place to initiate some supercell thunderstorms. SPC has highlighted a slight risk for severe weather where
the main threat will be isolated to scattered damaging hail (some greater
than 2 inches) and some severe wind gusts for Friday afternoon into the
evening hours. As for the Southeast, scattered to numerous thunderstorms
are forecast within a very moist and unstable environment along a surface trough. Single to multi-cell convection will pose the risk for excessive rainfall where WPC has highlighted a slight risk for excessive rainfall
from northern portions of South Carolina to the southern portions of
Virginia.

Meanwhile, monsoonal showers and thunderstorms will be most active during
the late-day hours across the Four Corners states, where the WPC has highlighted a marginal risk of Excessive Rainfall through the next couple
of days. In addition, a slight risk is in place across southern Arizona
for today.

Temperature-wise, the southern tier of the Lower 48 remains mired in a
steamy air-mass even by mid-to-late August standards. Record highs and
record warm minimum temperatures will be common with the Southeast at the
heart of the anomalous heat through today. The upper ridge is forecast to strengthen over the Southwest while cool Canadian air dips further into
the Great Lakes where showers will become more widespread heading into the weekend. Some cases of record-breaking warmth are expected in the Desert Southwest and Southern Plains as temperatures dip into the 40s near the Canadian border in the upper Midwest. Extreme Heat Warnings are in effect
for much of the Desert Southwest, and Extreme Heat Warnings remain in
effect across portions of the southern Plains to the Deep South. Heat Advisories are in effect for all of Florida and the southeast U.S. coast. Overnight lows will be so warm (low 80s in some cases) that, when combined
with oppressive dew points, little-to-no relief from the scorching daytime highs will be available. Residents are advised to follow proper heat
safety tips by limiting outdoor activity, staying hydrated, ensuring
access to A/C or cooling centers, and checking on vulnerable friends, neighbors, and family members.


Kong/Green


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

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Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
346 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Valid 00Z Fri Aug 21 2026 - 00Z Sun Aug 23 2026

...Severe weather and flash flood threats across parts of the East into tomorrow, with severe threats over the Central Plains on Friday...

...Dangerous heat persists in the South while building into the
Southwest...

A couple of wavy cold front in the East will support and help focus heavy
rain, flash flooding, and severe weather across much of the Mid-Atlantic
this evening and into tonight. As daytime heating and instability are
maximized this afternoon, strong to severe weather with embedded heavy
rain will focus along a slow moving boundary draped across the
Mid-Atlantic. WPC highlights this region with a slight risk of excessive rainfall. There an embedded moderate risk for excessive rain/flash
flooding for the New York City metro region and central to northern New
Jersey where an area of low pressure exiting the coast could help to
enhance rainfall in this more flood prone region. The northern part of
this boundary should shift off the Coast later tonight, but the southern portion should help to maintain the severe weather and flash flood threat across the southern Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Carolinas tomorrow. Both
WPC and SPC highlight this region in the respective excessive rainfall and convective outlooks for Friday.

Over the midsection of the country, another round of severe weather is
possible for eastern Nebraska into Minnesota and Wisconsin this afternoon
into the evening ahead of a front trailing from a low pressure wave moving across Minnesota into the U.P. Michigan. SPC has outlined a slight risk of severe weather for the area where the main threat will be large hail, and isolated wind damage. On Friday, much of central and eastern Nebraska will experience another round of severe weather as the trailing front pushes southward. SPC highlights this region in a slight risk. As this boundary
is expected to be rather progressive, flash flooding is not a threat, but heavier rainfall is possible in stronger thunderstorms.

Meanwhile, monsoonal showers and thunderstorms will be most active during
the late-day hours across the Four Corners states, where the WPC has highlighted a marginal risk of Excessive Rainfall through the next couple
of days.

The southern tier of the Lower 48 remains mired in a steamy air-mass even
by mid-to-late August standards. Record highs and record warm minimum temperatures will be common from the Southern Plains into the Southeast,
with a few records into the Southwest as well. Extreme Heat Warnings are
in effect for much of the Desert Southwest, with Extreme Heat Warnings and
Heat Advisories extending from the Southern Plains to Florida and the
Southeast Coast. Expect little to no overnight relief across these regions
as temperatures struggle to get below 80F in some locations. This equates
to widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk. The heat should finally moderate across the Southeast as a cold front moves into the region on Friday, but
this potentially dangerous heat wave will continue even beyond the short
range period for the Southern Plains and expand over the Southwest as
well. Please refer to Key Messages issued by WPC for additional
information on this event.


Santorelli/Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

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Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
233 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Valid 12Z Fri Aug 21 2026 - 12Z Sun Aug 23 2026

...Severe weather and flash flood threats across parts of the East through Saturday, with severe/flooding threats across portions of Central Plains
on Friday...

...Dangerous heat persists in the South while building into the Southwest through the weekend...


Unsettled weather continues into the weekend as a broad upper-level ridge remains entrenched across the southern U.S., while several shortwave disturbances and surface boundaries move through central and eastern U.S.
The frontal boundary draping across the Southern Plains to the Southeast
and northward into the Mid-Atlantic will continue to interact with
unstable and warm airmass. This will support multiple rounds of showers
and thunderstorms, leading to possible Slight Risk for excessive rainfall
and flash flooding, especially across Virginia into the Carolinas. Additionally, Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a Slight Risk for
severe thunderstorms, capable of producing severe/damaging wind gust on
Friday across the Southeast/Carolinas. The boundary will continue to lift northward and slowly move eastward on Saturday, while a second boundary
follows behind. This will bringing additional rainfall across the eastern seaboard, leading to clustered thunderstorms that may produce excessive rainfall/flash flooding, especially across the East Coast, while the Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley may experience severe thunderstorms.

Across central U.S., another frontal boundary will bring chances for
showers and thunderstorms as the boundary moves southward and interacts
with increasing instability and deep-layer shear. Organized convection may develop, which may lead to Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms, hail, and damaging winds across the central Plains and Midwest, while a Marginal
Risk is in place for excessive rainfall/heavy rainfall across portions of
the central Plains, that may lead to localized flooding through Saturday morning. Across the southwest, monsoonal moisture will remain concentrated across the Four Corners and southern Rockies. Afternoon heating combined
with terrain-driven circulations will initiate scattered thunderstorms
through the weekend, with locally heavy rainfall possible from slow-moving storms. On Saturday, the ridge will shift eastward, while a shortwave disturbance pushes into the Pacific Northwest. The influx of moisture will expand the flooding threat northward, covering much of western U.S., as
storms are expected to develop along the boundary. Additionally, the storm
may produce severe thunderstorms and a chance for small hail within the stronger cells.

Meanwhile, dangerous heat continues across the south-central U.S. and the Southwest through the weekend as the ridge continues to support above
normal temperatures. Numerous daily record highs are expected, with
daytime highs of 100-110 degrees across the Southern Plains into the
Southwest. With little to no overnight relief, as minimum temperatures
will remain warm, and high humidity, heat indices may reach 105-115
degrees. Therefore, expect widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk through
the weekend. Refer to Key Messages issued by WPC for additional
information on this event.


Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

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* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Valid 00Z Sat Aug 22 2026 - 00Z Mon Aug 24 2026

...Broad area of thunderstorms maintain a scattered severe weather and
flash flood threat across the Central and Eastern U.S.; monsoon activity continues over the West...

...Dangerous heat persists in the South while building into the Southwest through the weekend...

Unsettled summertime weather will continue through the weekend from the
Plains states eastward as an amplifying frontal system near the Upper
Great Lakes merges with a stalled frontal boundary draped across the
Mid-South. The leading boundary in the Mid-South will support multiple
rounds of thunderstorms capable of scattered flash flooding this afternoon
and tomorrow across portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Severe weather is also a concern across the Southeast today, where the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a Slight Risk for damaging wind gusts. Meanwhile, the Great
Lakes boundary will sink southward today, supporting a separate corridor
of severe weather from northern Illinois to western Nebraska. By tomorrow,
the boundaries will begin to merge together, ushering in additional heavy rainfall across the Eastern Seaboard with pockets of isolated severe also possible form the Midwest to the Northern Rockies. Across the southwest, monsoonal moisture will remain concentrated across the Four Corners and Southern Rockies. Afternoon heating combined with terrain-driven
circulations will initiate scattered thunderstorms through the weekend,
leading to locally heavy rainfall from slow-moving storms.

Meanwhile, dangerous heat continues across the south-central U.S. and the Southwest through the weekend as an amplified upper-ridge continues to
support above normal temperatures. Numerous daily record highs are
expected, with daytime highs of 100-110 degrees across the Southern Plains
into the Southwest. With little to no overnight relief, as minimum
temperatures will remain warm, and high humidity, heat indices may reach 105-115 degrees. Therefore, expect widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk
through the weekend. Refer to Key Messages issued by WPC for additional information on this event.


Asherman/Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
119 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Valid 12Z Sat Aug 22 2026 - 12Z Mon Aug 24 2026

...Flash flooding and severe weather threat across portions of eastern
U.S. on Saturday...

...Flash flooding and severe weather threat across portions of
Rockies/Plains into the Southwest through the weekend...

...Dangerous heat continues across south-central U.S. into the Southwest through the weekend...


A amplified pattern with a deepening trough over eastern U.S. and
persistent ridging over the southern Plains/Southwest will bring unsettled conditions across the Rockies/Plains into eastern U.S. into early next
week. At the surface, the low over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley will
continue to strengthen, while frontal boundaries begin to merge. The slow moving boundary will drape across the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic, into the Southeast and southern Plains by Saturday. Increasing cyclonic flow, upper-level forcing, and sufficient moisture will maintain multiple rounds
of showers and thunderstorms along the boundary, with locally heavy
rainfall possible across portions of the Great Lakes,
Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas into the Northeast. By Sunday, the system will
continue to move eastward, with cyclogenesis north of the Great Lakes, supporting additional showers for portions of the Northeast. Additionally, Storm Prediction Center highlights a severe thunderstorm threat capable of producing severe hail and wind across portions of southern Plains and Ohio Valley/Great Lakes/Mid-Atlantic for Saturday, while the threat is confined
to the Northeast by Sunday.

Further west, the stationary frontal boundary will continue to stretch
across the Rockies/Plains into the Four Corners. The combination of the shortwave disturbances, slow moving frontal boundary, and moisture influx
can lead to showers and thunderstorms. These systems may be capable of producing excessive rainfall/flash flooding, lightning, severe hail and damaging winds across portions of the Rockies/Plains into the Southwest
through the weekend.

The southern tier will remain dominated by the upper-level ridging
centered over the Southwest. This will maintain above normal temperatures
into next week. The dangerous heat will build across south-central U.S.
and Southwest with daytime highs of 100-110 degrees across the Southern
Plains into the Southwest, with numerous record breaking highs. With
little to no overnight relief, as minimum temperatures will remain warm,
and high humidity, heat indices may reach 105-115 degrees. Therefore,
expect widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk through the weekend. Refer to
Key Messages issued by WPC for additional information on this event.


Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
316 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Valid 00Z Sun Aug 23 2026 - 00Z Tue Aug 25 2026

...Dangerous and record-breaking heat continues across the south-central
U.S. into the Southwest...

...Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms and flash flooding possible across parts of the Great Lakes, Mid-South, and West through tonight...

...Flash flooding and severe weather threat across portions of the
Southwest and into the Rockies/Plains through Monday...

Scorching August temperatures are set to continue throughout much of the South-Central U.S. and Southwest this weekend into early next week and
beyond as an anomalous upper ridge sets up over the region and prompts temperatures to remain well above average compared to typical heat this
time of year. Temperatures are forecast to be dangerously hot and rise
into the triple digits once again on Sunday and Monday throughout much of Texas, Oklahoma, eastern New Mexico, and into the Desert Southwest. Upper
90s are forecast to extend into the Gulf Coast regions and parts of the
central High Plains. When combined with warm overnight low temperatures in
the upper 70s and 80s, the HeatRisk is considered Extreme for much of the aforementioned regions. These temperatures are also expected to break
dozens of daily high temperature and warm overnight temperature records, further highlighting how this heat wave is not just typical August heat. Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories have been issued. Residents and visitors are reminded to stay hydrated and limit outdoor activity during
the hottest hours of the afternoon.

Thunderstorms and unsettled weather is forecast to continue through
tonight along a frontal boundary that stretches from the Lower Great Lakes
to the Lower Mississippi Valley and southern Plains. Additionally,
scattered thunderstorms are possible this evening and overnight across
much of the Intermountain West, Rockies, and Southwest. Isolated instances
of flash flooding are possible, as well as damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning, and hail. By Sunday and Monday, unsettled weather remains
across the Lower Great Lakes associated with a deepening low pressure
system across southeast Canada. Meanwhile, continued monsoonal
thunderstorm activity will continue across the Southwest, Intermountain
West, and Rockies on an isolated-to-scattered basis. Other clusters of thunderstorms are possible within northwesterly flow across the Great
Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Primary hazards with these
storms will be locally heavy rain, frequent lighting, and damaging wind
gusts. The greatest threat for damaging wind gusts on Sunday is forecast
to be located in parts of the central Great Basin and central/eastern
Montana, where the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk (level
3/5) of severe weather.

Elsewhere, high pressure will bring cooler temperatures and drier
conditions for much of the Midwest, Upper Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley
through early next week.

Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
254 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Valid 12Z Sun Aug 23 2026 - 12Z Tue Aug 25 2026

...Dangerous and record-breaking heat continues across the south-central
U.S. into the Southwest...

...Flash flooding and severe weather threat across portions of the
Southwest and into the Rockies/Plains, Midwest, and Southeast through
Monday...


A strong and persistent upper ridge centered over south-central U.S. and
the Southwest will maintain very hot conditions across the southern tier.
Above normal temperatures will continue to have daily afternoon highs
within the upper 90s to 100s, with the highest amounts over the Southern
Plains and portions of the Four Corners. With the combination of little to
no overnight recovery and high humidity, heat indices may reach 105-115 degrees, which may lead to widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk.
Furthermore, these abnormal temperatures are expected to break dozens of high/low daily temperatures through the week. Extreme Heat Warning and
Heat Advisories have been issued across portions of the Four Corners,
Southern Plains, and Lower Mississippi Valley.

North of the ridge, a corridor of enhanced moisture and instability will
extend from the northern Rockies/Plains into the Midwest and Lower
Mississippi Valley. Shortwave energy embedded within the northwesterly
flow will interact with this moisture and a frontal boundary, resulting in scattered thunderstorms through Monday. Repeated convection and high
rainfall rates may lead to excessive rainfall and flash flooding,
especially across the Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Additionally, Storm Prediction Center highlights the potential for severe thunderstorms, damaging wind gusts, and hail across portions of the Great
Basin and Rockies/Plains through Monday. Further southwest, monsoonal
moisture will continue to bring daily thunderstorms across the Southwest, Rockies, and Intermountain West, leading to excessive rainfall/flash
flooding concerns through Monday.

Meanwhile, a surface low and associated frontal boundary affecting the Northeast will gradually shift eastward, but additional upper-level energy
will support lingering showers and thunderstorms into Monday. Some storms
may become locally strong where sufficient instability develops, which may
lead to severe weather and excessive rainfall concerns. Additionally, the trailing frontal boundary stretching across the Southeast will bring
chances for severe thunderstorms, damaging winds, and excessive rainfall
into Monday.


Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
330 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Valid 00Z Mon Aug 24 2026 - 00Z Wed Aug 26 2026

...Dangerous and record-breaking heat continues across the south-central
U.S. into the Southwest...

...Isolated to scattered flash flooding and severe weather threat across portions of the Southwest and into the Rockies/Plains, Upper Midwest, and Southeast through Tuesday...


A strong and persistent upper ridge centered over south-central U.S. and
the Southwest will maintain very hot conditions across the southern tier.
Above normal temperatures will continue to have daily afternoon highs
within the upper 90s to 100s, with the highest values specifically over
much of Texas, Oklahoma, eastern New Mexico, and the Desert Southwest. The combination of little to no overnight recovery and high humidity (for the Southern Plains) will allow for heat indices to reach up to 105-115
degrees, which is where widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk is forecast. Furthermore, these abnormal temperatures are expected to break dozens of high/low daily temperatures through the week. Extreme Heat Warning and
Heat Advisories have been issued across portions of the Four Corners,
Southern Plains, and Lower Mississippi Valley. The anomalous summer heat
wave is expected to persist through early this week and beyond. See the
latest Key Messages linked at the bottom of the discussion for more information.

North of the ridge, a corridor of enhanced moisture and instability will
extend from the northern Rockies/Plains into the Midwest and Lower
Mississippi Valley. Shortwave energy embedded within the northwesterly
flow will interact with this moisture and a frontal boundary, resulting in scattered thunderstorms through Monday. By Tuesday, a system will eject eastward across south-central Canada and spread rain/thunderstorm chances
into the Upper Midwest. Repeated convection and high rainfall rates may
lead to excessive rainfall and isolated flash flooding, especially across
the Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Additionally, Storm
Prediction Center highlights the potential for severe thunderstorms,
damaging wind gusts, and hail across portions of the Great Basin and Rockies/Plains through Monday. Further southwest, monsoonal moisture will continue to bring daily thunderstorms across the Southwest, Rockies, and Intermountain West, leading to excessive rainfall/flash flooding concerns
the beginning of this week.

Meanwhile, a surface low and associated frontal boundary affecting the Northeast will gradually shift eastward, but additional upper-level energy
will support lingering showers and thunderstorms into Monday across the
Lower Great Lakes and northern New England. Some storms may become locally strong where sufficient instability develops, which may lead to severe
weather and excessive rainfall concerns. Additionally, the trailing
frontal boundary stretching across the Southeast will bring chances for
severe thunderstorms, damaging winds, and excessive rainfall on a isolated
to scattered basis through Tuesday.


Oudit/Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

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Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
220 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Valid 12Z Mon Aug 24 2026 - 12Z Wed Aug 26 2026

...Hazardous record-breaking heat continues across the south-central U.S.
into the Southwest this week...

...Flash flooding and severe weather threat across portions of the
Southwest and into the Rockies/Plains, Upper Midwest, and Southeast
through Tuesday...


A strong ridge anchored over the Southwest and south-central U.S. will
continue to bring hazardous heat across the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley, and gradually into the Southwest by mid-week. Daytime
highs will reach 100-110 degrees across the southern Plains, while
portions of the Southwest can reach up to 115. Some areas are even
expected to break dozens of high/low daily temperatures through the week.
With the combination of well above normal temperatures and the high
humidity, heat indices will remain elevated. Additionally, the warm
overnight temperatures will provide limited recovery, leading to
widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk through the week. See the latest Key Messages linked at the bottom of the discussion for more information.

The western periphery of the ridge will remain a corridor for monsoonal moisture extending northward across the Four Corners and Intermountain West/Rockies. Unstable airmass will interact with shortwave energy and the frontal boundary, leading to scattered thunderstorms across portions of
the Southwest, Great Basin, and central Rockies. The strongest storms will
be capable of producing severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and flash flooding through Tuesday, especially over areas that have sufficient instability. Further north, a progressive westerly flow will persist
across the northern Rockies/Plains and upper Midwest. As the frontal
boundary moves eastward, it will interact with warm unstable air,
supporting repeated organized showers and thunderstorms across the Rockies/Plains into the Upper Midwest. Locally heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms will be possible with stronger storms through Tuesday,
especially over the central/southern High Plains.

Meanwhile, the surface low and associated frontal boundary will continue
to exit eastward from the Northeast, but shortwave troughs will continue
to produce lingering showers and thunderstorms through Monday across the
Lower Great Lakes and New England. Further south, the trailing frontal
boundary will drape across the Southeast into the southern Plains,
bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday. As the
boundary interacts with warm moist air and sufficient instability,
organized storm cells may develop. The strongest storms may produce
damaging winds, severe thunderstorms, and localized flash
flooding/excessive rainfall, especially along the Gulf Coast, Lower
Mississippi Valley, and Southeast Coast.



Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

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Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
342 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Valid 00Z Tue Aug 25 2026 - 00Z Thu Aug 27 2026

...Dangerous record-breaking heat continues across the south-central U.S.
into the Southwest this week...

...Flash flooding and severe weather threats continue across portions of
the Southwest and into the Rockies/Plains, Upper Midwest, and Southeast
through Wednesday...


A strong ridge anchored over the Southwest and south-central U.S. will
continue to bring hazardous heat across the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley before gradually expanding into the Southwest by
mid-week. Daytime highs will reach 100-110 degrees across the southern
Plains, while portions of the Southwest can reach up to 115. Some areas
are even expected to break dozens of daily temperature records through the week. Additionally, very warm overnight temperatures will provide limited nighttime relief, leading to widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk for the
next several days. See the latest Key Messages linked at the bottom of the discussion for more information.

The western periphery of the ridge will remain a corridor for monsoonal moisture extending northward across the Four Corners and Intermountain West/Rockies. The moisture combined with strong surface heating will lead
to scattered thunderstorms across portions of the Southwest, Great Basin,
and central Rockies. The strongest storms will be capable of producing
severe weather and heavy rainfall, with gusty winds and localized flash flooding possible through Wednesday. Farther north, a progressive westerly
flow will persist across the northern Rockies/Plains and Upper Midwest. As
the frontal boundary moves eastward, it will interact with warm and
unstable air, supporting episodes of organized thunderstorms across parts
of the Rockies/Plains into the Upper Midwest. Locally heavy rainfall and
severe weather will be possible with stronger storms through Tuesday and Wednesday, especially over the central/southern High Plains.

Meanwhile, a surface low and associated frontal boundary will continue to
pull away from the Northeast, but reinforcing disturbances will continue
to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms across parts of northern
New England into Tuesday. Farther south, a trailing slow-moving frontal boundary will drape across the Southeast into the southern Plains,
bringing repeated chances for showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday.
Warm and moist Gulf air interacting with the nearly stalled front will
support the potential for locally heavy rainfall and severe weather. The strongest storms may produce damaging winds and isolated flash flooding, especially across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, along the Gulf Coast, and for parts of the Southeast.


Miller/Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

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Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
134 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Valid 12Z Tue Aug 25 2026 - 12Z Thu Aug 27 2026

...Dangerous record-breaking heat continues across the south-central U.S.
into the Southwest this week...

...Flash flooding and severe weather threats continue across portions of
the Southwest and into the Rockies/Plains, Upper Midwest, and Southeast
through Wednesday...


A strong upper-level ridge will remain anchored across the Southwest into south-central U.S. into late week. This will maintain an abnormal
hazardous heat across the region, with daytime highs of 100-110 across the Southern Plains, while portions of the Southwest will reach up to 115.
With overnight temperatures providing limited relief, heat-related illness
may increase, especially for those without proper hydration and adequate cooling. Furthermore, widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk is forecasted
for much of the Southwest into Texas and Southern Plains through late
week. See the latest Key Messages linked at the bottom of the discussion
for more information.

Farther north, the troughing over the Northwest and northern Rockies will support a more active pattern from the northern and central Rockies/Plains
into the Upper Midwest as moisture continues to deepen along the frontal boundary. Increasing instability will also support organized convection,
that may lead to flash-flooding concerns across portions of the central/southern High Plains through Wednesday. Additionally, the system
will bring the risk for severe thunderstorms across the south/central
Plains into the Upper Midwest on Tuesday, and shifts into the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley on Wednesday as the frontal boundary moves eastward.

Across the Southwest and portions of the Rockies/Plains, monsoonal
moisture will continue to move northward along the western periphery of
the ridge and interact with embedded shortwave energy. This will lead to
daily scattered showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday. Organized convection may lead to locally heavy rainfall rates, which will continue
to pose isolated flash-flooding concerns, particularly over terrain and
areas with wet antecedent conditions. Father east, increasing instability
and persistent Gulf moisture along a slow-moving frontal boundary will
support repeated showers and thunderstorms across the Southeast into Lower Mississippi Valley and portions of the Southern Plains. Therefore, the
risk for severe thunderstorms, damaging winds, and isolated heavy rainfall/flash-flooding will continue for portions of the Lower
Mississippi Valley and the Southeast through Wednesday.


Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

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Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
414 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Valid 00Z Wed Aug 26 2026 - 00Z Fri Aug 28 2026

...Dangerous record-breaking heat continues across the South-Central U.S.
into the Southwest this week...

...Scattered instances of flash flooding (level 2/5) will be possible
Wednesday and Thursday across the Lower Mississippi Valley...

Strong to severe storms will be possible ahead of a cold front in the
Mid-South to the Ohio Valley tomorrow and into the Northeast on Thursday...

A strong upper-level ridge will remain anchored across the Southwest into
the South-Central U.S. into late week. This will maintain an abnormal
hazardous heat across the region. Daytime highs of 100-110 degrees F are forecast across the Southern Plains for Wednesday and Thursday, while
portions of the Southwest will reach upwards to the upper 90s and low 100s
F in the valleys and 110s in the deserts. The urban areas of San Diego and
Los Angeles are under Heat Advisories and Extreme Heat Warnings through
the end of the week. With overnight temperatures providing limited relief, heat-related illness may increase, especially for those without proper hydration and adequate cooling. Accordingly, widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk is forecast for much of the Southwest into Texas through late
week. See the latest Key Messages linked at the bottom of the discussion
for more information.

An upper-level trough and surface cold front will begin to sweep eastward across the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes tomorrow, sparking
chances for strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and
hail. A tornado or two may also be possible on Wednesday in the Great
Lakes region, according to the Storm Prediction Center. On Thursday, the
severe weather threat (level 2/5) will shift to the Northeast for threats
of damaging winds, hail, and a tornado or two possible. Additionally, the
High / Central Plains into the eastern Rockies will see a chance for
strong to severe storms Wednesday and Thursday for mainly hazards of large hail.

Across the Southwest and portions of the Rockies, monsoonal moisture will continue to move northward along the western periphery of the ridge and interact with embedded shortwave energy. This will lead to daily scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday. 1-2 inch an hour
rainfall rates with storms will continue to pose isolated flash-flooding concerns, particularly over sensitive terrain such as burn scars, slot
canyons, etc... Father east, increasing instability and persistent Gulf moisture along a slow-moving frontal boundary will support repeated
showers and thunderstorms across the Southeast into Lower Mississippi
Valley. The Excessive Rainfall Outlook was bumped up to a Slight Risk on Wednesday for portions of Arkansas, Mississippi, and Tennessee due to a
frontal wave enhancing the organization and coverage of storms. A Slight
Risk is also forecast on Thursday from Louisiana to South Carolina as a
stalled frontal boundary and shortwave energy interacts with summer
instability to produce the likelihood of locally heavy rainfall.

Lastly, the northern Rockies into the mountain ranges of the Pacific
Northwest will continue to see elevated fire weather concerns with above average temperatures overlapping with low relative humidities and gusty
winds (10-30 mph). Follow local officials on fire weather orders.

Wilder/Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
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Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
112 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Valid 12Z Wed Aug 26 2026 - 12Z Fri Aug 28 2026

...Dangerous record-breaking heat continues across the South-Central U.S.
into the Southwest this week...

...Heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms across the Midwest, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Wednesday...

...Flash flooding threat across the Southeast and Lower Mississippi Valley
into the Northeast on Thursday...

A strong upper-level ridge will remain anchored across the Southwest into
the South-Central U.S. into late week, bringing daytime highs in the upper
90s to low 100s, with isolated areas reaching between 100-115 degrees in
the Southwest and Southern Plains. Record-breaking overnight temperatures
will limit recovery from the heat, which may result in heat-related
illnesses for those without adequate cooling and hydration. Therefore, widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk will continue across portions of
Texas into the Southwest through Thursday. See the latest Key Messages
linked at the bottom of the discussion for more information.

A progressive upper-level trough will move eastward across the Midwest
into the Great Lakes toward the Northeast. Organized convection will
develop along the frontal boundary extending from central/southern Plains
and Midwest into the Ohio Valley and eventually the Northeast, as moisture
and instability increases. The strongest storms will have the potential to produce lightning, large hail, damaging winds, and excessive
rainfall/flash flooding through Wednesday, especially across the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Furthermore, as a slow-moving frontal boundary across the Southeast and Lower Mississippi
Valley weakens, the cold front from the primary frontal system will move southeastward by late Wednesday. Deep Gulf moisture will continue to pool
along the boundary, which will maintain a corridor favorable for heavy
rainfall and severe thunderstorms from lower Mississippi Valley into
portions of the Southeast. On Thursday, the severe thunderstorm shifts to
the Northeast and Ohio Valley, while the heavy rainfall/flash flooding
threat encompasses portions of the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast
as the frontal boundary moves eastward.

Meanwhile, continued monsoonal moisture transport around the western
periphery of the ridge will support daily thunderstorms across the
portions of the Southwest, Great Basin, Rockies, and central/southern
Plains. The combination of high moisture and instability may lead to
organized slow-moving storms, which will continue to favor isolated flash flooding across much of the Four Corners into the central/southern High
Plains and Rockies through Thursday. Additionally, some of organized
convection may produce strong winds, large hail, and lightning across the central/southern High Plains.


Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
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Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
427 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Valid 00Z Thu Aug 27 2026 - 00Z Sat Aug 29 2026

...Dangerous record-breaking heat continues across the South-Central U.S.
into the Southwest this week...

...Heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms across the Midwest, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Wednesday...

...Flash flooding threat across the Southeast and Lower Mississippi Valley
into the Northeast on Thursday...

The overall weather pattern continues to show ridging holding on across
the Southwest U.S and maintaining the extreme heat for Thursday and
Friday. Meanwhile, troughing across the Pacific Northwest will push a cold front across the region late week into the weekend. This will drop
temperatures slightly below average into the 70s and 80s and bring chances
for showers and thunderstorms across the upper Inter-Mountain West through Friday. Across the East, a cold front will clear the Ohio Valley today and bring the potential for locally heavy rainfall across the I-95 corridor tomorrow. Cooler air will filter behind the front and bring high
temperatures down to the low 80s and upper 70s and morning low
temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s.


As mentioned above, strong upper-level ridge will remain anchored across
the Southwest through Friday, bringing daytime highs in the upper 90s to
low 100s, with isolated areas reaching between 100-115 degrees in the Southwest. Record-breaking overnight temperatures will limit recovery from
the heat, which may result in heat-related illnesses for those without
adequate cooling and hydration. Therefore, widespread Major to Extreme
HeatRisk will continue across portions of southern Texas, New Mexico,
Arizona, and California. See the latest Key Messages linked at the bottom
of the discussion for more information.

A progressive upper-level trough will move eastward across the Midwest
into the Great Lakes toward the Northeast. Organized convection will
develop along and ahead of a frontal boundary tomorrow from Washington
D.C. northwards to the Hudson Valley. The strongest storms will have the potential to produce isolated instances of hail, damaging winds, and
isolated tornadoes. Moreover, excessive rainfall/flash flooding is
becoming increasingly likely from Baltimore to New York City metros with a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall and local flood watches in effect.

Across the central Gulf Coast on Thursday, proximity to a stalled frontal boundary and shortwave energy ejecting southwards towards the Gulf will
provide forcing for abundant thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall from central Louisiana towards the Florida Panhandle. A Slight Risk Excessive Rainfall Outlook is in effect for the possibility of scattered instances
of flash flooding for mostly localized urban areas such as New Orleans and Mobile. The threat for locally heavy rainfall will shift towards the
eastern Carolinas on Friday with a front and lee troughing across the
Piedmont promoting thunderstorm development. There remains some
uncertainty on the flash flooding extent with the higher flash flood
guidance across the coastal plain. Some gusty winds are possible as well according to the Storm Prediction Center for the possibility of wet microbursts, typical of summer thunderstorms.

Meanwhile, continued monsoonal moisture transport around the western
periphery of the ridge will support daily thunderstorms across the
portions of the Southwest, Great Basin, and Rockies. For the Southwest
monsoon, the combination of high moisture and instability may lead to
organized slow-moving storms, which will continue to favor isolated flash flooding across much of the Four Corners Thursday and Friday. For the
northern and central Plains, a complex of thunderstorms or two may form Thursday and Friday, bringing isolated instances of large hail and
accompanied locally heavy rainfall.


Oudit/Wilder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

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Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
208 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Valid 12Z Thu Aug 27 2026 - 12Z Sat Aug 29 2026

...Heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorm threat across portions of the Mid-Atlantic, Ohio Valley, and Northeast on Thursday...

...Heavy rainfall threat continues across the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast and Mid-Atlantic through...

...Dangerous record-breaking heat continues across the South-Central U.S.
into the Southwest this week...


An amplified pattern continues with a persistent upper-level ridging
across the Four Corner and Southwest U.S., while broad troughing extends
into eastern U.S. A series of northern-stream shortwaves will progress eastward, which will help push the frontal boundary over the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley into the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and Lower Mississippi Valley. Increasing low-level moisture and instability ahead of
the slow-moving frontal boundary will support showers and thunderstorms,
which may lead to heavy rainfall/flash flooding risk across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast and Gulf Coast on Thursday. Additionally, locally strong to severe storms may develop across the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, which may produce lightning, hail, isolated tornadoes, and damaging winds. On Friday, much of the northern portion of
the cold front moves offshore, while the trailing front stalls across the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast. This will continue the severe
thunderstorm and flash flooding threat along the boundary.

The frontal boundary will also drape across the central/southern Plains northward into the northern Rockies/Plains, bringing chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms along the boundary. As the slow-moving boundary interacts with moist and unstable airmass, clustering of thunderstorms may develop. This will lead to a flash flooding risk across central/southern
Plains and a severe thunderstorm threat across the central Plains and
northern Rockies for Thursday. On Friday, the severe weather and heavy
rainfall threat moves into the northern/central Plains as the frontal
boundary lifts northward. Across the southwest, monsoonal moisture will continue to extend northward around the western periphery of the ridge, supporting diurnally driven thunderstorm across the Southwest into the
Rockies and Great Basin through Friday. Strong organized storms may
produce isolated flash flooding, especially over burn scars, urban areas,
and slot canyons.

The persistent upper-level ridge continues to bring dangerous heat across
the Southwest and portions of Texas through Friday. Daytime highs in the
upper 90s to low 100s, with isolated areas reaching between 100-115
degrees in the Southwest. Record-breaking overnight temperatures will
limit recovery from the heat, which may result in heat-related illnesses
for those without adequate cooling and hydration. Therefore, expect Major
to Extreme HeatRisk across portions of the Southwest and Southern Texas.
See the latest Key Messages linked at the bottom of the discussion for
more information.

Otherwise, temperatures will somewhat cool over the central and southern
Plains as the frontal boundary moves southward. Additionally, a cold front
and a upper-level trough will move over the Pacific Northwest bringing
cooler temperatures and chances for showers across portions of the Intermountain West.



Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

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Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
417 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Valid 00Z Fri Aug 28 2026 - 00Z Sun Aug 30 2026

...The Southeast, Northern Plains, and the Southwest will chances for
showers and thunderstorms for Friday into the weekend, some of which could
be marginally severe or bring locally heavy rainfall...

...Southwest heat will abate, while the heat shifts back to the Central
Plains by the end of the weekend...

...A cool down will occur for the West as an upper-trough moves through
the region...

The weather pattern across the U.S. will continue to favor storms across
the Southeast for the weekend as a stationary boundary lingers across the region. Additionally, a mid-level and surface low is forecast to form from
a shortwave across the central Gulf Coast for the weekend and enhance
showers and thunderstorms. Across the West, an upper-trough will bring a
couple of surface fronts through the Pacific Northwest and Inter-Mountain
West before slowing down over the area. This will promote showers and thunderstorms over the next few days. The strong mid-upper level ridge
across the Southwest will shift to the southern Plains for the weekend.
This will bring temperatures down closer to average for southern
California, Arizona, and southern Nevada, while warmer than average temperatures with highs in the low 100s are possible across the South and Central Plains.

A Slight Risk Excessive Rainfall Outlook is in place for Friday across the Carolinas and the Virginia Tidewater as instability and moisture pools
along a stalled frontal boundary in the region. Thunderstorms capable of
hourly rainfall rates of 1-2 inches a hour could result in instances of scattered flash flooding. Elsewhere, a Marginal Risk extends from the Gulf Coast to the Northeast for a more marginal threat of flash flooding as the front hangs up along the east coast. For Saturday, the stationary front
will continue to reside over the Southeast and interact with a weak
mid-level low to enhance showers and storms capable of locally heavy rain
and an isolated flash flood risk typical of summertime thuderstorms. A
Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect for Friday and Saturday
across the Northern Plains as shortwave troughs interact with instability
and marginal surface moisture to produce complexes of storms. The quick
motion of the storms should keep any flash flood threat marginal. Out to
the West, monsoon moisture across the Four Corners region and a broader upper-level trough for the Rockies will bring a Marginal Risk for
Excessive Rainfall on Friday and Saturday Arizona to southern Montana.

In terms of severe weather, scattered strong winds are possible for the Southeast tomorrow from wet microbursts, typical of summer pulse
thunderstorms. Across the Dakotas, the upper-level trough moving into the
area will bring dynamics supporting supercell wind profiles and bring
risks of large hail and damaging winds if storms form into linear
segments. On Saturday, a Marginal outlook is in effect from the Great
Basin to the Dakotas with strong to severe wind gusts possible.



Oudit/Wilder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

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Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
326 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Valid 12Z Fri Aug 28 2026 - 12Z Sun Aug 30 2026

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Northern Plains/Great Basin on Friday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Southern Mid-Atlantic/Southeast on Friday...

A quasi-stationary front will move off the Northeast Coast overnight
Friday. At the same time, the southern part of the boundary continues from
the Southern Mid-Atlantic to the Lower Mississippi Valley through Saturday night. Near and south of the front, showers and thunderstorms will
develop over the Southern Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast and
Central/Eastern Gulf Coast through Sunday morning. Moisture-rich air and
the nearby front will contribute to showers and thunderstorms producing
heavy rain over parts of the Southern Mid-Atlantic/Southeast on Friday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive
rainfall with these thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Mid-Atlantic/Southeast. The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,
and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable.

A front extending from the Northern High Plains southwestward to Northern California will remain quasi-stationary through Saturday morning, when a reinforcing boundary will strengthen the front. Showers and thunderstorms
will develop over the Great Basin and into the Northern Plains, with a
strong diurnal component from late afternoon into late evening Friday and Saturday.

Moreover, monsoonal moisture will produce showers and thunderstorms with moderate to heavy rain over parts of the Southwest from late Friday
afternoon into late Saturday evening. The WPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southwest. The
associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding,
affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain.

Furthermore, upper-level impulses will produce showers and thunderstorms
over parts of the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday and
the Upper Mississippi Valley into the Upper Great Lakes on Saturday and
Sunday. In addition, weak onshore flow and upper-level energy will help
produce rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest on Friday and Saturday.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
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Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
323 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Valid 12Z Sat Aug 29 2026 - 12Z Mon Aug 31 2026

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Great Basin on Saturday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Southwest through Monday...

A quasi-stationary front from the North Carolina Coast roughly
southwestward to the Southern Plains will slowly dissipate from west to
east to the North Carolina Coast by Sunday morning. Near and south of the front, showers and thunderstorms will develop over the Southern
Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast and Central/Eastern Gulf Coast through
Sunday evening. From Sunday night to Monday morning, showers and
thunderstorms will develop over the Central/Eastern Gulf Coast. Elsewhere,
weak onshore flow and upper-level energy will help produce rain over parts
of the Pacific Northwest on Saturday into Saturday evening.

Showers and thunderstorms will develop over the Great Basin and into the Northern Plains, with a strong diurnal component from late afternoon into
late evening Saturday and Sunday. Monsoonal moisture will also produce
showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over the Southwest. Therefore,
the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over
the Southwest through Monday. The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, narrow canyons/gullies, and burn scars the most vulnerable.

Moreover, a front extending from the Northern Plains southwestward to
Northern California will remain quasi-stationary through early Sunday
morning. Showers and thunderstorms will develop over the Northern
Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley on Saturday. In addition, on Sunday into
Monday morning, a stationary front will expand eastward from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes and extend into the Mid-Atlantic by Monday. Overnight Saturday, the showers and thunderstorms will expand over the
Great Lakes. Showers and thunderstorms will grow into New England from
Sunday evening into Monday.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)