AWUS01 KWNH 251615
FFGMPD
SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-252215-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1124
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1215 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Areas affected...Northern FL...Southern GA...Coastal SC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 251615Z - 252215Z

SUMMARY...Potent thunderstorms containing excessive rainfall rates
around 3"/hr may cause flash flooding in poor drainage spots and
within urbanized areas.

DISCUSSION...At 1530Z, Doppler Radar and GOES East were
highlighting developing thunderstorms within a growing field of
bubbling cumulus clouds over northern FL. The highlighted region
remains downwind of a low-mid level circulation center situated
northwest of Tallahassee where 700mb vorticity advection is being
directed towards northern FL and southern GA. The thermodynamic
profile is ripe for torrential rainfall rates within developing
thunderstorms. The 12Z JAX sounding already contained ~2,800
MLCAPE and PWs >2.0". The 12Z CHS sounding did not feature as much
moisture or instability, but a cold front over southern SC and
southern GA aiding in the production of scattered storms, within a
1.75-2.0" PW and >2,000 MLCAPE environment, would support >2"/hr
rainfall rates this afternoon.

By mid-afternoon, PWs will surpass 2.25" and MLCAPE will increase
to >3,000 J/kg over much of northern FL. Typical sea breeze
circulations will fire off scattered storms, and even as
convective temperatures are met and CIN erodes, storms farther
inland are also likely to develop. West of I-95, 1-hr FFGs that
are above 3.0" in most cases, but areas along I-95 such as
Jacksonville and Savannah are closer to 2.5". Given the storms are
likely to be slow movers (12Z JAX sounding shows <10 kts cloud
layer storm motions), storms within this kind of environment will
be capable of producing close to 3"/hr rainfall rates and locally
higher rates cannot be ruled out. The new 12Z HREF probabilistic
guidance does show some low-to-moderate chances (30-50%) for 1-3hr
FFG in far southeast GA this afternoon.

Flash flooding is possible this afternoon with the urbanized
corridors along I-95 and I-10 most at-risk. Typical poor drainage
spots and low-lying areas may also be prone to flash flooding
through early evening.

Mullinax

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...MLB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32887983 32587981 32348009 32038046 31758076
31458097 30898100 30278097 29808089 29298077
28908072 28638076 28448109 28638158 28988186
29428228 29768256 30068273 30218287 30678296
30988290 31098278 31368264 31648247 31918219
32088200 32208172 32528093 32758034 32878007

$$

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