MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

ACUS11 KWNS 271457
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271457
NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-271700-

Mesoscale Discussion 2145
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0957 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Areas affected...far eastern Pennsylvania...New Jersey...New York
City...and northern Delaware

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 271457Z - 271700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for severe storms capable of damaging winds,
marginally severe hail, and perhaps a brief tornado may increase by
late morning into early afternoon. Convective trends are being
monitored for a possible watch.

DISCUSSION...A broken band of thunderstorms is ongoing as of
mid-morning from the New York City vicinity southwest toward
Baltimore, with that activity potentially being aided by forcing for
ascent associated with a low-amplitude disturbance moving into VA,
per water vapor imagery. The inflow air mass to these storms is
moist with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, and where
stronger heating can occur, expect MLCAPE to increase to 1000-1500
J/kg by early afternoon.

A number of 12Z CAMs suggest the ongoing storms are likely to
persist into early afternoon amidst the destabilizing environment.
In that scenario, the presence of a vertically veering wind profile
with around 30 kt of deep-layer shear (see current DIX VWP) would
support a conditional risk for embedded supercell structures capable
of locally damaging winds, marginally severe hail, and perhaps a
brief tornado.

..Mead/Mosier.. 08/27/2026

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...

LAT...LON 39857580 40727540 41187489 41437413 41367351 40827327
39777390 39247433 39197502 39517570 39857580

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

$$

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