ACUS02 KWNS 110457
SWODY2
SPC AC 110455

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe weather is expected Monday through Monday night.

...Synopsis...

An upper low initially over the Columbia Basin will develop south to
the Sierra Nevada, while an embedded vorticity maximum progresses
through the basal portion that feature from central/southern CA
through the lower-CO Valley into the Great Basin. Downstream from
those developments, a low-amplitude short-wave trough is forecast to
translate from the northern or central High Plains into the upper
Midwest and neighboring Upper Great Lakes regions by Monday night.
At the surface, an area of low pressure initially over central NE
will develop along a boundary into southern MN by late afternoon or
early evening before reaching central WI Monday night.


...Upper Midwest...

A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region on
Monday, atop a moistening boundary layer, yielding a moderately
unstable but capped air mass by afternoon along and south of the
surface boundary and approaching cyclone. Elevated thunderstorms are
expected to develop to the north of the surface warm sector over the
northern Plains Monday morning within a zone of forcing for ascent
preceding the short-wave trough. That convective regime is expected
to spread into portions of MN and WI late Monday afternoon into
night, amidst a thermodynamic environment featuring MUCAPE generally
less than 1000 J/kg. While a few instances of hail approaching one
inch appear possible, larger sizes are expected to be limited by the
marginal instability and generally less than 30-35 kt of effective
bulk shear.


...Lower Colorado Valley into the Great Basin...

Increased forcing for ascent ahead of the vorticity maximum is
expected to foster an areal increase in low-topped thunderstorms
Monday afternoon, which are likely to continue into Monday night.
Generally weak instability should limit severe weather potential;
however, in areas where low-level lapse rates can sufficiently
steepen, the downward transfer of stronger winds aloft could yield a
few gusts approaching 58 mph. Some small hail may also accompany the
strongest updrafts.

..Mead.. 10/11/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 130517
SWODY2
SPC AC 130515

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU...AND IN PARTS OF THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts
are possible across portions of the southern Plains into the Ozark
Plateau, and in the parts of the upper Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic
Wednesday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...

An upper low centered near the Four Corners Wednesday morning is
forecast to gradually weaken while progressing into the central High
Plains by early Thursday. Within the southeast periphery of the low,
a vorticity maximum is expected to advance from the southern Rockies
into the central High Plains in tandem with a 50-60 kt jet streak in
the mid levels. Elsewhere, a series of vorticity maxima (some of
convective origin) are forecast to translate from the mid-MS Valley
to the southern Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will move
south through the Mid-Atlantic, OH and mid-MS Valleys, and into
portions of the southern Plains. The western segment of the front
over the southern Plains may eventually stall and perhaps retreat
north Wednesday night in response to falling pressures over the
central Plains.

...Southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau...

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at 12Z
Wednesday, along and ahead of the cold front, aided by modest warm
advection and moisture transport along a weakening nocturnal
low-level jet. The presence of a seasonably moist (e.g., dewpoints
in the mid 60s to mid 70s F) and at least marginally unstable air
mass will likely support the continuation of showers and
thunderstorms through the day in some areas. On the southern fringe
of any more persistent clouds and precipitation, stronger heating
may contribute to corridors of moderate instability by afternoon
where MLCAPE may approach 1500-2000 J/kg. That destabilization
process will coincide with strengthening vertical shear and forcing
for ascent preceding the southern Rockies disturbance, yielding an
environment supportive of isolated strong to severe storms during
the afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts appear to be the
primary hazard with the best potential for a few occurrences of
severe hail being in southwest TX.

...Upper Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic...

Daytime heating combined with boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid
60s to low 70s F is expected to contribute to pockets of moderate
instability with MLCAPE approaching 1000-1250 J/kg by mid-late
afternoon ahead of the cold front. Aided by forcing for ascent
preceding the series of vorticity maxima approaching from the west, thunderstorms are expected to develop and subsequently increase in
areal coverage along the front at that time. Steepening low-level
lapse rates coupled with strengthening west-southwesterly winds with
height (yielding up to 35-40 kt of deep-layer shear) appear
supportive of isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts
into evening.

..Mead.. 10/13/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)