ACUS02 KWNS 160559
SWODY2
SPC AC 160557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF OKLAHOMA...KANSAS...MISSOURI...IOWA...ILLINOIS...FAR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the
southern Plains to the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity
Friday into Friday night. Tornadoes, possibly strong, very large
hail, and swaths of damaging winds will be possible.

...Southern Plains to Upper Midwest...

A potent upper trough from is expected to eject over the Plains and
Upper Midwest on Friday. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will
overspread the region early in the forecast period, with 850-700 mb
flow around 40-50 kt common from parts of OK/KS into WI. At the
surface, forecast guidance has trended a bit further north with the
position of a surface low Friday morning. This low is expected to be
located along the MO River near the SD/IA/NE border, and will
develop northeast into northern WI/MI U.P. by late afternoon. A
trailing cold front will push southeast across Upper MS/Mid-MO
Valley as this occur, becoming oriented from central MI to northwest
MO and southeast KS by 00z. Meanwhile, a second low is forecast to
develop over the TX Panhandle/western OK within strong heating near
a dryline extending southwest from western OK into
west-central/western TX. Ahead of these surface features, a
seasonally moist airmass will be in place, or, in the case of the
Upper Midwest, rapidly advect northward during the morning hours.

A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates, supported by cool to cold
temperatures aloft (near -16 C at 500 MB across portions of IA/MN/WI
at 21z, and -14 to -12 C further southwest) will overspread the
moist boundary layer. This will result in strong destabilization,
with MLCAPE around 2500-3500 J/kg expected across the warm sector.
This kinematic and thermodynamic environment will support robust
convective development near the Upper Midwest surface low
southwestward along the cold front into KS by midday. Initial
supercells are possible, especially closer to the surface low in the
Upper Midwest, and near the triple point/dryline in northwest
OK/south-central KS. More rapid upscale growth into a robust
line/LEWP is expected along the cold front from parts of IA into MO
and eastern KS. Given robust instability and very steep lapse rates, significant damaging wind swaths will be possible. Additionally,
large to very large hail will be possible with any discrete
supercells, and possibly within line-embedded supercells. Low-level
wind profiles will also support a aerially extensive tornado risk,
both with QLCS mesovortex circulations, and with discrete
supercells. A corridor of perhaps greater tornado risk/coverage may
develop near the surface low from northeast IA into central WI.
Low-level SRH will be maximized in this area and forecast soundings
indicate large, curved hodographs becoming elongated above 2-3 km.
Furthermore, mixing ratios near 14 g/kg and very steep lapse rates
should support robust updrafts with low cloud bases. This are may
become a focused corridor for stronger tornadoes.

Linear convection should continue east across the MS River and Lake
Michigan during the evening and overnight hours, with a gradually
waning severe risk into portions of central/southern IL, Lower MI
and IN. Additional convection may develop during the evening and/or
overnight across parts of TX near the dryline, though this scenario
is more conditional. If storms do develop, large will be the main
risk.

..Leitman.. 04/16/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 240535
SWODY2
SPC AC 240534

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
One or two clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms, posing a risk
for large hail and damaging wind gusts, are possible across parts of
the southeastern Great Plains Saturday afternoon and evening.

...Discussion...
Downstream of an initially amplified, but becoming increasingly
suppressed, blocking ridge, models indicate that the center of a
deep mid-level low now forming over southern Saskatchewan may only
move subtly northward or northwestward through this period. It
appears that the broader cyclonic circulation will continue to
elongate Saturday through Saturday night, with one notable emerging
short wave perturbation accelerating north of the international
border through northwestern Quebec. To the southwest of the
residual mid-level low, a couple of additional emerging
perturbations are forecast to contribute to south-southwestward
digging troughing along and inland of the U.S. Pacific coast.

In response to the latter development, a fairly significant short
wave impulse is forecast to accelerate east-northeastward out of the
southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific, inland of the Pacific coast
through the southern Great Basin and lower Colorado Valley by 12Z
Sunday. Downstream, mid-level heights are forecast to generally
rise with large-scale ridging building across the southern Rockies
through much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. Models
continue to suggest that this may be slowed a bit by subtle
mid-level height falls associated with a weak short wave
perturbation progressing east of the southern Rockies, through
portions of Kansas and Oklahoma during the day Saturday.

In lower levels, seasonably moist air, supportive of moderate to
strong potential instability beneath steep mid-level lapse rates,
appears likely to remain confined beneath the larger-scale mid-level
ridging. Initially this will be south of the Red River through the
lower Mississippi Valley, along and south of a convectively enhanced
surface front which may become increasingly diffuse through the day.
Models vary with the extent to which this occurs across and north
of the Red River through the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity, but
a dryline is generally forecast to sharpen roughly from the Wichita
Falls TX through Del Rio TX vicinity by late Saturday afternoon,
near the southeastern periphery of broad weak surface troughing.

...Central/Southern Great Plains...

Model disparity concerning the evolution of surface boundaries and boundary-layer moistening/destabilization to the north of the Red
River add uncertainty to this forecast. Stronger mid-level ridging
and capping will remain present to the south of the Red River, as
subtle mid-level height falls overspread parts of Kansas/Oklahoma
through the day.

At some point, it appears that large-scale forcing for ascent aided
by lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection will support increasing
thunderstorm development within elevated moisture return and
destabilization. Latest convection allowing guidance suggests
highest probabilities for this to occur may be well to the north and
east of the dryline, across parts of north central Oklahoma by mid
to late afternoon, when it appears that at least elevated
destabilization may support the risk for large hail, perhaps
occasionally in excess of 2 inches in diameter, in the presence of
strong cloud-bearing layer shear.

Even if the near-surface inflow for this activity begins to emanate
from a more unstable boundary-layer, rather modest to weak low-level
hodographs probably will limit tornadic potential. However,
increasing and consolidating convective development could gradually
organize and become capable of producing strong to severe wind gusts
late Saturday afternoon and evening, while tending to propagate
southeastward across eastern Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Arkansas.

..Kerr.. 04/24/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 271746
SWODY2
SPC AC 271744

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development is probable
across parts of the southeastern Great Plains through the lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Large to very large hail, swaths of damaging wind, and a few
tornadoes are possible.

...Southeastern Great Plains into the Tennessee Valley...

Within broad southwesterly flow aloft, a mid/upper-level shortwave
trough is forecast to move from the south-central Rockies toward the
mid MS Valley on Tuesday. Other low-amplitude vorticity maxima may
move from TX toward the TN Valley and Southeast, to the south of the
primary shortwave trough. These features will impinge upon a
reservoir of strong instability extending from the southern Plains
into the lower MS Valley, resulting in a potentially active severe
weather episode Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.

Elevated convection will likely be ongoing across parts of the
region Tuesday morning, which could pose a threat for large hail and
locally gusty winds, especially within the more favorable lapse
rate/buoyancy environment across the southern Plains into the
ArkLaTex. Strong diurnal destabilization will be possible by Tuesday
afternoon, to the east of a dryline across TX, and along and to the
warm side of an outflow-influenced front extending from southeast OK
toward the mid MS Valley. Evolution of storm development remains
uncertain, but initiation will be possible along the dryline/front
and any other outflow boundaries in place by afternoon.

Strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg across TX, and 2000 J/kg
as far east as the ArkLaMiss) and favorable deep-layer shear will
support supercell development, with an attendant threat of very
large hail initially. Modestly enhanced low-level flow from east TX
into the ArkLaMiss will also support some tornado potential, with
some conditional risk of a strong tornado with any sustained
supercell. An increase in storm coverage should lead to development
of storm clusters and potentially an MCS that would spread eastward
into the evening, with one or more swaths of damaging wind possible.
Storms should eventually weaken late in the period as they encounter
weaker instability with eastward extent, but the severe threat could
persist through much of the night with any organized storm structures.

..Dean.. 04/27/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 160602
SWODY2
SPC AC 160601

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are expected Sunday afternoon into Sunday night from
portions of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Supercells
with very large hail and tornadoes are possible, before upscale
storm growth leads to an increase in the wind damage threat.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough currently across the Pacific Northwest will
deepen D2/Sunday, moving across Great Basin into the Four Corners
into early D3/Monday. Elevated convection will likely be ongoing at
the start of the period across portions of northern Nebraska into
Iowa. Westerly flow will overspread the central/northern Plains as a
lead shortwave moves across western Kansas into Nebraska through the
day before shifting into the Upper Midwest. A surface cyclone will
deepen across eastern Colorado/western Kansas with strong moist
southerly flow and mid 60s dew points extending across much of the
central and southern Plains. Thunderstorm development is expected by
the afternoon from a stationary boundary/warm front across central
Nebraska southward to the dryline across central Kansas and perhaps
as far south as the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles.

...NE to MN...

Strong daytime heating and destabilization should occur behind
morning convection across Nebraska into Iowa through broken cloud
cover. Better clearing will be possible across
southeastern/south-central Nebraska where fewer clouds will be
present. Overall, a broad corridor of MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg
and strong deep layer shear should extend across southern Nebraska
into western Iowa just south of the warm front. Strengthening
southerly 700-850 mb flow is expected through the afternoon, with a
low-level jet around 40-50 kts across central Kansas into eastern
Nebraska. By the afternoon, guidance suggests that supercells may
develop near the stationary front/warm front in eastern Nebraska.
Given the environment, these will be capable of large to very large
hail (some 2-3 inches), damaging wind, and a few tornadoes (some
strong). Through time, convection will likely cluster and grow
upscale with a damaging wind threat continuing downstream into
southeast SD, northwest IA and southwest MN through Sunday night.

...Western KS to TX Panhandles...

Forcing for ascent will be weaker with southern extent into western Kansas/western Oklahoma near the dryline. Soundings across these
regions also indicate capping at the base of the EML, which may be
difficult to overcome. Nonetheless, a few isolated supercells may
develop along the dryline as the low-level jet increases through the
evening. These will pose a risk for large to very large hail and
damaging winds.

..Thornton.. 05/16/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 080548
SWODY2
SPC AC 080546

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely to develop across parts of
the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley Tuesday afternoon
into night. Very large hail, tornadoes, a few of which could be
strong, and damaging winds with significant gusts appear likely.
Farther south, widely scattered severe storms capable of very large
hail and damaging winds with significant gusts will be possible
across portions of the central Plains Tuesday afternoon into night.
Additional, more isolated storms capable of large hail and damaging
winds are possible from parts of the Midwest into lower Ohio Valley
Tuesday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...

A short-wave trough initially over the northern Rockies Tuesday
morning will accelerate northeast into the north Plains, ahead of a
more significant vorticity maximum and associated mid/upper-level
jet streaks moving into the northern and central Plains Tuesday night.

At the surface, low pressure is expected develop from southeast MT
into northwest ND during the day, along a Pacific front or
dryline-like boundary shifting east through the northern High
Plains. Meanwhile, a boundary initially across northern SD into
northwest MN will retreat north to the International Border as a
warm front. Elsewhere, a diffuse warm or quasi-stationary front will
reside across portions of the mid MO Valley into mid MS Valley.

...Northern Plains into upper Mississippi Valley...

A 30-40 kt low-level jet will enhance moisture return south of warm
front and beneath a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates, with
MLCAPE increasing to 2500-3500+ J/kg by afternoon within the
poleward expanding warm sector. Height falls attendant to lead
short-wave trough coupled with convergence in the vicinity of the
surface low and Pacific front/dryline are expected to foster
scattered thunderstorm development by mid/late afternoon over the
western Dakotas.

Strengthening deep-layer shear to 40-50 kt at a substantial angle to
the surface front will support rapid evolution into supercells,
which could initially be a bit higher based, given initiation on the
western edge of richer, boundary-layer moisture. Large to very large
hail will be the primary hazard initially. Tornado potential is
expected to increase through the evening as storms move east into an increasingly moist and more strongly sheared low-level environment.
Model forecast soundings indicate large, clockwise-curved hodographs
with substantial SRH. However, there is some uncertainty as to what
the predominant storm mode will be during the time of the low-level
shear amplification. As such, this forecast will include a 10%
unconditional tornado probability with a conditional intensity group
one. Higher values may be required in subsequent forecasts if
confidence increases in a sustained discrete or semi-discrete storm mode.

At some point, storms are expected to grow upscale into an MCS along
coalescing storm-scale cool pools, signaling an increasing damaging
wind risk across the Red River Valley Tuesday night.

...Central Plains...

Recent model runs have trended toward an earlier arrival of the
upstream short-wave trough mentioned in the synopsis, which results
in meaningful height falls overspreading the dryline during the
latter half of the diurnal heating cycle. Various models indicate
the development of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm
development by mid/late afternoon across western parts of NE and KS,
perhaps as far southwest as northeast NM. Initial storms will form
in a hot, deeply mixed boundary layer with steep low/mid-level lapse
rates contributing to moderate instability. Initially marginal
deep-layer shear is forecast to strengthen by late afternoon into
Tuesday evening, with the environment becoming supportive of
high-based supercells capable of severe wind gusts and large hail.

There is some model suggestion that the initial high-based storms
may evolve into an MCS that progresses from central NE and northern
KS through the mid MO Valley Tuesday night. Given the strongly
unstable air mass forecast along the path of the MCS, the potential
would exist for a substantial damaging wind event, including the
possibility of intense wind gusts. Confidence in that scenario is
low, which precludes the addition of higher unconditional
probabilities. However, a conditional intensity group one has been
added to acknowledge the potential magnitude of such an event.

...Midwest into the lower Ohio Valley...

A moderate to strongly unstable air mass is expected to develop
Tuesday afternoon in the vicinity of a diffuse warm front or
quasi-stationary boundary oriented northwest-to-southeast across the
region. Storm coverage remains uncertain, which precludes higher
unconditional severe probabilities. Nonetheless, the potential for
large hail and damaging wind gusts will exists with any storms that
can become sustained in that thermodynamic environment.

..Mead.. 06/08/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 090541
SWODY2
SPC AC 090540

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA...MUCH OF WISCONSIN...CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA...AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms capable of large hail in
excess of two inches in diameter, a few strong tornadoes, and
damaging winds with gusts in excess of 75 mph appear likely across
portions of the upper Mississippi Valley and Midwest Wednesday
afternoon into night. More sporadic occurrences of large hail and
damaging winds are possible into the central and southern Plains,
and from the lower Great Lakes toward the Mid-Atlantic coast.

...Synopsis...

An upper low along the MT-SK border Wednesday morning is forecast to
deepen while redeveloping to along the ND-MB border Wednesday night.
That intensification process will be driven by mid/upper-level jet
streaks moving through the base of broader-scale trough, in tandem
with an amplifying short-wave trough. A lead disturbance initially
over the northern High Plains Wednesday morning will accelerate
northeast into the Upper MS Valley by evening, along with the
leading edge of stronger mid/upper-level jet streak winds.

At the surface, an area of low pressure over eastern SD Wednesday
morning will develop north-northeast into southeast MB by evening,
while a trailing cold front advances through the upper MS Valley
into the upper Great Lakes. The trailing extension of the boundary
from the mid MO Valley into KS will move more slowly through the day
before stalling and then lifting north Wednesday night in response
to cyclogenesis over the central Plains. A dryline will intersect
the front over southwest KS Wednesday afternoon, with that feature
extending southwest into western TX.

...Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes into the Central and
Southern Plains...

Areas of thunderstorms may be ongoing Wednesday morning across
portions of MN and WI, aided by warm advection along a nocturnal
low-level jet. Residual convective outflow boundaries from the
early-day storms and the approaching cold front are expected to
focus the most intense thunderstorm development, which may occur by
early afternoon across northern and central parts of MN. Subsequent south/southwestward storm development is expected by mid/late
afternoon along and ahead of the front from southern MN and western
WI through central/eastern IA, northern MO, into eastern/southern
KS, and perhaps into western OK and northwest TX.

Rich boundary-layer moisture, characterized by dewpoints in the
upper 60s to low/mid 70s will coincide with a plume of steep
mid-level lapse rates to yield moderate to strong afternoon
instability with MLCAPE increasing to 2000-4000+ J/kg across the
warm sector. Deep-layer shear will strengthen through the afternoon
into evening with the arrival of the jet streaks, especially across
the upper MS Valley into upper Great Lakes where effective bulk
shear magnitudes of 50-60 kt are forecast.

The expected CAPE-shear combination will support numerous severe
storms that begin as supercells capable of large to very large hail
and some tornado threat, with an eventual transition to a more of a cold-pool-driven convective system with embedded bowing structures
by evening across portions of the Upper Midwest, potentially into
Great Lakes. Damaging wind potential, including the possibility for
75+ mph wind gusts would likewise increase with that mode
transition, as would a continued tornado threat with line-embedded meso-vortices. The greatest potential for a few strong tornadoes is
expected to develop with any sustained supercells across portions of
eastern MN, WI, eastern IA, and northwest IL in the proximity of a strengthening low-level jet, which will enhance near-ground shear.

Storms are expected to be increasingly more isolated in nature with southwestward extent along the front and dryline from eastern KS
into western OK and northwest TX. Nonetheless, the degree of
instability coupled with around 30 kt of deep-layer shear will favor
organized multicell and/or supercell structures capable of large
hail during the afternoon and evening hours.

A separate large-hail threat is expected to develop Wednesday night
into Thursday morning over the mid MO Valley within a zone of strong
warm advection and moisture flux occurring within the terminus of a
50+ kt low-level jet.

...Lower Great Lakes to Mid-Atlantic Coast...

Forcing for ascent associated with a weak mid-level disturbance
moving through the region is expected to foster widely scattered
thunderstorm development during the afternoon amidst a moist and
moderately unstable air mass. Model soundings indicate some
enhancement of the mid-level wind field, with deep-layer shear
increasing to around 30 kt in some areas. As such, a few severe
storms appear possible with an associated risk for damaging wind
gusts and large hail.

..Mead.. 06/09/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 120558
SWODY2
SPC AC 120557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
KANSAS INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
One or two evolving thunderstorm clusters appear possible across
parts of the central Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley vicinity
Saturday afternoon through Saturday night, accompanied by potential
for strong, damaging wind gusts. Large to very large hail may also
occur early in storm development from Kansas into Iowa.

...Mid-MS Valley into KS/OK...

Generally low-amplitude mid/upper flow will extend across the
central/southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley area initially Saturday
morning as the region is sandwiched between an upper trough over the
Upper Midwest and the northern periphery of upper ridging across the
Southeast. As the Upper Midwest trough modestly deepens and pivots
east, some strengthening of mid and upper westerly flow is forecast.
At the surface, southerly low-level flow will transport rich
boundary layer moisture northward across OK/KS into the Mid-MS
Valley ahead of northeast to southwest oriented cold front. Steep
midlevel lapse rates atop this moist airmass will support a corridor
of moderate to strong instability (2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) across KS,
MO into southern IA and perhaps IL.

Some uncertainty remains regarding possible ongoing convection
across parts of northeast OK/southeast KS early Saturday morning in
the form of a decaying MCS from the Day 1/Friday period. It is
possible an MCV associated with this feature could move across MO
during the day and pose some severe risk toward the MS River by
afternoon. However, confidence in this scenario is low given low
predictability of mesoscale feature at this time scale.

Confidence is somewhat higher that convection will develop during
the afternoon in the vicinity of the surface front from eastern KS
into IA. Initial supercells appear possible. Low-level shear will be
modest, but given rich boundary layer moisture and strong
instability, a couple of tornadoes are possible. More likely, a
large to very large hail risk will be possible with initial
supercells given steep midlevel lapse rates, strong instability and elongated/straight forecast hodographs. As the surface front
develops southeast during the late afternoon into the evening, one
or more bowing MCSs are expected to develop, posing a risk for
scattered severe/damaging winds (isolated gusts to 70-80 mph will be
possible). This activity should continued southeast across the Lower
MO Valley toward the Ozarks vicinity through evening/overnight. The
northward extent of greater severe potential is uncertain, and this
portions of the outlook may need further refinement in subsequent outlooks.

...Lake Michigan Vicinity...

Isolated thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and early
evening along the advancing cold front. Cool temperatures aloft will
support steep midlevel lapse rates atop low 60s F boundary layer
moisture. This will foster MLCAPE values around 1500-2000 J/kg.
Isolated hail and gusty winds will be possible with these storms.

...Southern Plains vicinity...

A surface dryline will extend from southwest KS into eastern NM on
Saturday. Forecast guidance depicts a shortwave impulse ejecting
across the southern Rockies ahead of a western U.S. upper trough. As
this occurs, isolated to scattered storms will develop near the
surface boundary. This activity will likely be higher-based given
deep mixing and strong heating into the 90s. Isolated strong wind
gusts will be the main hazard with this activity, though a few
instances of hail also are possible.

..Leitman.. 06/12/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 190548
SWODY2
SPC AC 190547

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS....

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the central
Plains vicinity from Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Large
to very-large hail, severe winds (some 75+ mph), and tornadoes are possible.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level ridge will de-amplify as it emerges from the Rockies to
the central Plains on Saturday. As this occurs, mid-level flow will
strengthen across the Rockies with strong lee cyclogenesis across
eastern Colorado. A frontal zone will extend eastward from the
surface low somewhere near southern Nebraska with a dryline
extending southward into the southern Plains.

...Central Plains...

Low-level flow will strengthen across the Plains during the day
Saturday as the lee cyclone deepens across eastern Colorado. This
will result in northward moisture transport and destabilization
across Kansas, northeast Colorado, and southwest Nebraska. By
mid-afternoon, expect storms to develop within the upslope flow
regime across eastern Wyoming, southwest South Dakota, and the
Nebraska Panhandle. Forecast soundings show cool temperatures aloft,
steep lapse rates, and strong shear which will support supercells
capable of large to very large hail in this area.

By later in the afternoon, expect storm development along the
uncapped dryline across eastern Colorado and western Kansas, and
along the frontal zone in central/southern Nebraska. Moderate
mid-level flow across the warm sector within this zone will support
a supercell storm mode. These initial supercells will pose a threat
for large to very large hail. In addition, some tornado threat will
exist with this activity, particularly along the front and as the
low-level jet strengthens during the evening. Expect these
supercells to congeal into one or more MCSs during the evening and
track southeastward into central and eastern Kansas, with an
increasing wind threat (with some 75+ mph gust potential), and
perhaps a QLCS/embedded supercell tornado threat.

..Bentley.. 06/19/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 261744
SWODY2
SPC AC 261742

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
VA AND EASTERN NC...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are likely across portions of eastern Montana and
western/central North Dakota on Saturday. Severe storms will also be
possible from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to Virginia and the
Carolinas, as well as portions of the southern High Plains.

...Synopsis...

An upper low and attendant large-scale upper trough will persist
across the western U.S. on Saturday. Further east, upper ridging
over the Plains is forecast to shift east toward the Upper Midwest
and Mid-MS Valley by Sunday morning. Quasi-zonal/weak upper
troughing is expected to persist across the eastern U.S. Within this large-scale regime, several shortwave impulses and embedded MCVs are
expected to drive severe thunderstorm potential across multiple
areas on Saturday. A lead upper shortwave trough is expected to
eject from the eastern Great Basin through the northern High Plains.
A series of MCVs will move from the Ozark Plateau to the OH/TN
Valleys, while another MCV and/or surface trough impacts
thunderstorm potential across the Mid-Atlantic/Piedmont. Finally,
another upper shortwave impulse could emerge across the central
Plains into the Mid-MO/Mid-MS Valleys.

...Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains...

A midlevel jet streak will overspread parts of the Great Basin into
the northern Plains, characterized by 50-60 kt southwesterly 500 mb
flow. Cooling aloft is also forecast and will result in a plume of
steep midlevel lapse rates. Surface low pressure is forecast to
deepen across northeast WY/western SD through evening. This will
support northward transport of low to mid 60s F dewpoints into
eastern MT/ND/SD. This will result in a narrow corridor of moderate
to strong instability. Capping will increase with eastward extent as
a result of midlevel height rises/warming aloft, which should
confine the eastward extent of severe potential.

As large-scale ascent increasing during the afternoon, convection is
expected to develop across the higher terrain of northern UT/ID into
WY. This initial activity will pose a risk for strong wind gusts and
isolated hail given strong deep-layer flow, steep midlevel lapse
rates, and a well mixed boundary layer. Additional convection is
expected to develop near the Big Horns and Beartooth/Absaroka
ranges. As this activity develops northeast into better low-level
moisture and strong instability, large to very large hail potential
will increase. With time during the evening, a southerly low-level
jet will increase across the Dakotas. Upscale growth is possible as
convection moves toward the terminus of the low-level jet and as
sufficient clustering/cold pool development occurs. If this
convective evolution unfolds, a swath of damaging wind gusts will be
possible, mainly across eastern MT into western ND.

...Mid-Atlantic...

Ongoing convection and cloudiness will likely hinder daytime
destabilization. Nevertheless, several shortwave impulses will move
across the region along with 25-30 kt westerly midlevel flow.
Isolated strong storms may produce gusty winds. The Slight risk
(level 2 of 5) has been confined to areas nearer the coast where
instability will be greatest.

...Southern High Plains...

A surface trough/dryline will extend south/southwest from western KS
to southwest TX. A moist airmass will exist east of this boundary
with hot temperatures forecast along and just behind the boundary.
Moderate to strong destabilization will occur near the boundary in a
narrow corridor, confined by stronger capping to the east across
much of OK/KS/central TX. However, isolated to widely scattered
storms are expected to develop during peak heating to early evening.
Vertically veering wind profiles with up to 25 kt effective shear
magnitudes suggest organized updrafts and high-based transient
supercell structures are possible. Given a deeply mixed boundary
layer, strong gusts will be possible. Organized updrafts that can be
maintained also will pose a risk of large hail given very steep
midlevel lapse rates and somewhat elongated hodographs.

...Ozarks to TN Valley vicinity...

Storms are forecast to be ongoing Saturday morning across southwest
MO. This activity could pose a marginal wind/hail risk initially.
Additional development is expected from southern IL/southeast MO
into KY/TN by late morning and spread east through the afternoon as
an MCV moves across the region. While deep layer flow will not be
impressive, the MCV could locally enhanced vertical shear.
Thunderstorm clusters will mainly pose a risk for damaging winds as
they track across moisture-rich and moderately unstable airmass.

...Northeast CO/Western NE into central SD...

Convection may develop during the late afternoon along the surface trough/dryline. Rich boundary layer moisture beneath steep lapse
rates will support strong destabilization. This corridor will remain
rather confined given rising midlevel heights and capping to the
east. Any storms that develop will have potential for strong outflow
gusts and large hail.

...Mid-MO Valley vicinity...

It is uncertain if convection will develop across this area, or if
it does - will it be surface-based, resulting in a rather
conditional severe risk. If storms can develop, an all-hazards
severe risk would be possible given a surface warm front lifting
north across the region amid ample moisture/instability and
supercell wind profiles. Given the conditional nature of the risk,
particularly due to capping, will maintain low severe probabilities.

..Leitman.. 06/26/2026

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)