782
FXUS64 KMRX 261800
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
200 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 157 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

- Elevated fire weather concerns through Friday.

- Wind gusts of 20-30 mph across the higher terrain of the Smoky
Mountains and Southwest Virginia on Saturday.

- Frost and freeze possible north northeast Tennessee and
Southwest Virginia Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

The forecast period begins with a transition from a dominant ridge
over the Southeast to a more active, zonal flow pattern. Through
Friday, high-amplitude ridging will maintain temperatures 3 to 8
degrees above seasonal norms, with surface highs in the 70s and low
80s. By Friday night, a northern stream shortwave will track across
the Great Lakes, dragging a weakening surface cold front into the
Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. This front will be moisture-starved due
to the lack of significant Gulf return, though sounding data
indicates enough boundary-layer instability for scattered light
showers, primarily for areas north of I-40. Model ensembles indicate
a high probability greater than 70 percent of QPF totals remaining
below 0.20 inches for the majority of the region. In the wake of
the front, a tightening surface gradient will contribute to breezy
conditions.

Post-frontal northwest flow will usher in a surge of cooler Canadian
air for the weekend, restoring seasonal temperatures by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 122 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

VFR conditions with hazy skies today along with gusty winds.
Winds will remain elevated overnight and into tomorrow.
Precipitation expected to move in just beyond the end of this 24
hour TAF cycle.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 60 84 41 64 / 0 30 10 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 79 37 59 / 0 70 30 0
Oak Ridge, TN 60 79 36 59 / 0 70 30 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 74 33 54 / 0 80 40 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

592
FXUS64 KMRX 271053
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
653 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 647 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

- Wind gusts of 20-30 mph in the TN Valley today, and across the
higher terrain of the Smoky Mountains and Southwest Virginia on
Saturday.

- Showers with a cold front move through this afternoon/evening,
with only light rain amounts.

- Frost and freeze possible north northeast Tennessee and Southwest
Virginia Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

A cold front producing strong to severe storms between the Great
Lakes and OH Valley this evening will push southward today.
Convection and forcing with the front will be weakening as it moves
south, as the upper level support stays well to our north. We will
just have a period of showers in the late afternoon or evening
hours, with little to no thunderstorms and QPF amounts of a tenth to
a quarter inch in northern portions of the area; southern sections
will see less or no rain. This precip will not do much alleviate the
recent fire weather concerns. We will also have gusty winds this
afternoon ahead of the front, from the SW with gusts in the 20-30
mph range.

Behind the front on Saturday, winds will be gusty again but from the
north, with 20-30 mph gusts in the mountains. RH values on Saturday
will be lower as well as a dry air mass moves in, dropping into the
20-30% range. Sunday may have even lower RH as temperatures warm
back into the mid/upper 60s - RH values may be in the 15-25% range. Temperatures on Saturday and Sunday mornings will drop to around
freezing in northern sections as high pressure settles over the OH
Valley and central Appalachians.

Next week will feature mainly dry weather and warming temperatures,
with highs in the 80s returning on Tuesday. A cold front may bring a
chance of rain in the latter half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 647 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Westerly winds are expected through the morning and early
afternoon with increasing cloud cover. By late afternoon into
early evening, a front will move into the area, bringing chances
for rain and MVFR conditions to all sites. For the evening and
overnight hours, rain will diminish across the region with winds
shifting to be from a more northerly direction. Gusts in excess of
20 kts are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 81 39 62 40 / 50 30 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 76 36 59 35 / 80 40 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 76 35 59 35 / 80 40 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 71 32 54 32 / 90 40 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

078
FXUS64 KMRX 271738
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
138 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 130 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

- Showers with a cold front move through this afternoon/evening,
with mostly light rain amounts.

- Below freezing temperatures across our northern areas tonight,
and possibly some areas Sunday night.

- Enhanced Fire Danger Tomorrow into Sunday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

A cold front continues to sag southward toward our area. Isolated to
scattered showers will move through our region this afternoon into
evening. NAM soundings show some minor amounts of elevated
instability. So while mostly rain is expected, there is a very low
chance of an isolated thunderstorm. No severe weather is expected.
Rain amounts are expected to be on the lighter side for most
areas. The east TN mountains will have better chances to see
higher rainfall amounts due to an increase in forcing from upslope
flow. Rainfall amounts for most areas will be 0.1 inches or less
while amounts across the east TN mountains will could range from a
few tenths of an inch up to 0.5 inches in isolated areas.
Rainfall should end prior to midnight as the cold front pushes
south and drier air begins to move into the region.

Much colder temperatures are expected tonight with near freezing to
below freezing temps across our northern areas (northern Cumberland
Plateau, northeast TN, southwest VA,) as well as the higher
elevations of the east TN mountains. With the breezy winds behind
the front, Wind Chills will drop into the teens across northern
areas, with single digit Wind Chills in the east TN mountains.


The main concern over the weekend will be the elevated fire weather conditions. Much drier air will be in place behind the cold front
and winds will remain breezy. RH values on Saturday will be in lower
20s for most areas with north winds gusting from 15 to 20 mph in
valley locations and 20 to 30 mph across the highest elevations
of the east TN mountains. After coordination with area forestry
partners, an enhanced fire danger statement will be in effect for
tomorrow for areas south of I-40. An additional enhanced fire
danger statement is likely for Sunday as well.


Next week will feature mainly dry weather and warming temperatures,
with highs in the 80s returning on Tuesday. A cold front may bring a
chance of rain in the latter half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Gusty winds ahead of and behind a cold front through the period,
with winds shifting from southwesterly to northerly. MVFR
conditions TRI this afternoon and then TYS by this evening. CHA
will likely remain VFR. TRI and TYS go back to VFR tomorrow
morning as drier air moves in behind the cold front.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 39 62 40 70 / 30 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 36 59 35 68 / 40 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 35 59 35 68 / 40 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 32 54 32 66 / 40 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

528
FXUS64 KMRX 281055
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
655 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 654 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026

- Enhanced Fire Danger today with low RH and gusty winds.

- Below freezing temperatures expected across our northern areas
tonight, and possibly a few northern areas Sunday night.

- Potential for a rainy period in the latter half of next week,
which may alleviate drought and wildfire conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Showers associated with a cold front have exited our area, and a
cooler and drier air mass will build into the area through today.

The main concern today will be the elevated fire weather conditions.
RH values today will be in lower 20s for most areas, with north
winds gusting up to 25 mph in valley locations and to around 30
mph across the highest elevations of the East TN mountains. An
Enhanced Fire Danger Statement is in effect for today for areas
south of I-40. An additional enhanced fire danger statement is
likely for Sunday as well due to low RH values, although winds are
expected to be lower than today.

Much colder temperatures are expected overnight with near freezing
to below freezing temps across our northern areas (northern
Cumberland Plateau, northeast TN, southwest VA,) as well as the
higher elevations of the East TN mountains. With the breezy winds
behind the front, wind chills will drop into the teens across
northern areas, with single digit wind chills in the East TN
mountains. Lows near freezing are expected again Sunday morning in
the mountains and northern sections, but light winds will not result
in significantly lower wind chill values.

The first half of next week will feature mainly dry weather and
warming temperatures, with highs in the 80s returning on Tuesday.
Rain chances will ramp up on Wednesday as a cold front moves south
across the OH Valley and settles across WV/KY/TN Wednesday night as
it becomes parallel to the midlevel flow. A series of upper
disturbances in the SW flow, combined with the potential for a
stationary front near the area, may result in a rainy period through
the latter half of next week. This may be beneficial for the current
drought conditions and fire concerns.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 654 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Mostly clear sky conditions are expected with northerly to
northeasterly winds. Gusts in excess of 20 kts are expected
through the morning hours with a slight decrease in winds during
the afternoon hours. Winds will be light and variable overnight
with no fog expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 41 70 53 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 35 70 50 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 60 36 69 49 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 32 67 44 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

601
FXUS64 KMRX 281825
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
225 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 217 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026

- Enhanced Fire Danger again tomorrow, across all areas.

- Near to just below freezing temperatures expected across portions
of northeast TN and southwest VA for tonight.

- Potential for a rainy period in the latter half of next week and
into the weekend, which may alleviate near-term drought and
wildfire conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Winds become less breezy overnight but light winds should remain
across most areas. Most areas should be above freezing but near
to just below freezing temperatures are expected across portions
of northeast TN and southwest VA tonight. Wind Chills will dip
into the teens/20s across the highest peaks of the East TN,
southwest VA, and the southwest NC mountains.


Elevated Fire Weather concerns continue tomorrow across all areas.
Min RH values will once again be in the teens to 20s for most areas.
Winds will be less gusty compared to today but still somewhat breezy
and out of the south. Most valley locations will see gusts to around
15 mph but isolated spots could see 20 mph. The higher elevations of
the East TN mountains will see gusts up to 25 mph. An Enhanced Fire
Danger Statement will be issued for all areas once the current
statement that is in effect for today expires later this evening.


The first half of next week will feature mainly dry weather and
warming temperatures due to a strong ridge of high pressure that
will be in place to our east in the Atlantic. On Tuesday, high
temps will be back in the 80s. Rain and thunderstorm chances in
place Wednesday/Thursday as a cold front moves south across the OH
Valley and settles across WV/KY/TN Wednesday night. A series of
upper disturbances in the SW flow, combined with the potential for
a stationary front near the area, may result in a rainy period
through the latter half of next week. Additional rain and storm
chances in place Friday and into the weekend as shortwave, and
then another cold front, move across the region. This unsettled
period will bring several chances for widespread, beneficial,
rainfall across the area. Current QPF totals from Wednesday
through next weekend range from 1 to 2 inches across the area.
These amounts may help to alleviate near-term drought and wildfire
conditions. No significant signs of any severe weather seems
present at the moment, but a low probability of hazardous weather
will be in place from midweek onward.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Gusty winds still remain at TYS and CHA through late afternoon
with gusts to around 25kts from out of the north northeast. Winds
become calmer overnight. However, winds become gusty again at CHA
late in the period and out of the south. VFR forecast for all
sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 41 70 53 76 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 35 70 50 74 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 36 69 49 73 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 32 67 44 71 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

037
FXUS64 KMRX 290630
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
230 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 229 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026

- Enhanced Fire Danger again today across the whole area.

- Temperatures to warm through Tuesday, and remain elevated rest of
the week.

- Potential for an extended rainy period in the latter half of
this week and into the weekend, which may alleviate near-term
drought and wildfire conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Early this morning Camp Creek has gusted into the 40s, which is a
bit surprising given both the cross mountain wind flow is generally
sub 20 knots and the cross mountain temperature difference doesn't
seem significant enough to generate winds, and yet. The HRRR seems
to have a good handle on this though, and persists gusty winds in
Greene County into the late morning, before subsiding as the
afternoon takes hold.

Very dry air again today, with relative humidity minimum values in
the late afternoon and early evening similar to Saturday's observed
values in the low 20s and teens. Winds will be pivoting to a return
flow southerly posture, but will be weaker than yesterday for the
most part. Flow increases Monday, bringing better moisture back into
the Tennessee Valley. Dry weather continues Monday and Tuesday, but temperatures will steadily warm thanks to strengthening SW flow.

Rain chances to return by Wednesday, as guidance depicts a frontal
boundary coming down from the north and stalling over the Mid-South.
A few disturbances in the upper flow will also pivot through the
Eastern US. The end result is an unsettled pattern with medium to
high rain chances Wednesday and onwards to the next weekend, with
potential for decent drought-alleviating rains. QPF has wavered a
bit with some run-to-run consistency issues, likely dependent on
overall forcing and exact latitudinal setup of the stationary front.
We're on the farther end from the disturbances passing in the heart
of the country, so naturally there's only a 30-50% chance of an inch
or more Wednesday through Friday night. Higher probabilities exist
towards the Mississippi River. By the end of the period there's a
more significant upper trough crossing the Northern Plains, a cold
front extending southwards at the surface may bring an end to the
stationary dreary weather. However, at this time range, spread
increases significantly though the ensemble mean of the LREF depicts
it as does the Euro operational.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026

LLWS has been included in CHA as winds a few thousand feet AGL
have been 35 to 40 kt. This is not indicated as much at TYS and
TRI, so no LLWS was added in. During the day, southerly winds will
increase with limited cloud cover.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 54 76 58 / 0 10 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 50 74 58 / 0 10 10 0
Oak Ridge, TN 68 50 74 57 / 0 10 10 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 45 71 52 / 0 10 10 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

502
FXUS64 KMRX 291738
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
138 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 132 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026

- Enhanced Fire Danger through this evening across the whole area.

- Mostly dry and a warming trend through Tuesday, then remaining
around 15 degrees above normal through Saturday.

- Potential for an extended rainy period in the latter half of
this week and into the weekend, which may alleviate near-term
drought and wildfire conditions. No severe weather anticipated
at this time.

- No risk of below freezing temperatures over the next 7 days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 132 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Enhanced Fire Danger continues until this evening due to low RH and
breezy south to southeast winds. Much warmer tonight due to the
southerly flow that is in place. Temps will generally be in the low
40s to low 50s.

Tomorrow morning there is a slight chance of rain along the TN/KY
state line and into northeast TN and southwest VA. Some weak
vorticity moving through zonal flow and increasing moisture may be
enough to produce some light rain. Low confidence in this
occurrence. Any rain that falls will be light, with amounts
general around a few hundredths of an inch or less. Otherwise,
southerly flow increases in the lower levels on Monday as high
pressure shifts further to our east. This will allow temps to
climb into the low to mid 70s for most areas. Winds will remain
somewhat breezy and out of the south and southeast but RH should
be quite a bit higher due to the southerly flow. Fire Weather will
be less of a concern tomorrow. Mostly dry conditions and warming
trend continues through Tuesday.


No real changes from Wednesday and beyond. The severe threat remains
low due to the upper jet remaining mostly to our north. LREF probs
for 1 inch or more of rain from Wednesday through Sunday still
sitting between 30 to 50%.

See previous discussion below...

Rain chances to return by Wednesday, as guidance depicts a frontal
boundary coming down from the north and stalling over the Mid-South.
A few disturbances in the upper flow will also pivot through the
Eastern US. The end result is an unsettled pattern with medium to
high rain chances Wednesday and onwards to the next weekend, with
potential for decent drought-alleviating rains. QPF has wavered a
bit with some run-to-run consistency issues, likely dependent on
overall forcing and exact latitudinal setup of the stationary front.
We're on the farther end from the disturbances passing in the heart
of the country, so naturally there's only a 30-50% chance of an inch
or more Wednesday through Friday night. Higher probabilities exist
towards the Mississippi River. By the end of the period there's a
more significant upper trough crossing the Northern Plains, a cold
front extending southwards at the surface may bring an end to the
stationary dreary weather. However, at this time range, spread
increases significantly though the ensemble mean of the LREF depicts
it as does the Euro operational.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 132 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Southerly winds will continue to gust to around 20kts at CHA until
this evening. Southerly winds remain in place through the night
but less than 10kts at all sites. Near MVFR ceilings are possible
at CHA this evening and overnight. There is a low probability that
MVFR conditions occur but not confident enough to include in
forecast. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected through the period at
all sites.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 55 76 58 83 / 10 0 0 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 51 74 58 81 / 10 10 0 20
Oak Ridge, TN 52 74 57 81 / 10 10 0 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 45 71 52 79 / 10 10 0 20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

047
FXUS64 KMRX 300705
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
305 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 304 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

- Warming trend through Tuesday, then remaining around 15 degrees
above normal through Saturday.

- Potential for several round of rain in the latter half of this
week and into the weekend, which may alleviate near-term drought
and wildfire conditions. No severe weather anticipated at this
time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Currently still a fairly warm evening as our southerly winds in
increasing clouds combine to keep temperatures much warmer than the
previous few nights. With a weak round of enhanced vorticity
traversing across we could see some isolated showers/sprinkles near
the KY/TN/VA borders tomorrow. But if anyone gets rain the
accumulations will be minor and no impacts are expected. Biggest
weather of note for the first part of the week is the continuing
warming temperatures, climbing into the 80's for pretty much all
locations in the Valley by Tuesday/Wednesday. With the more
southerly flow increasing the temperatures it will also increase the
dew points and relative humidities which will help decrease the fire
weather conditions.

Pattern becomes more unsettled for the second half of the week into
the weekend with multiple systems expected to move through the
region. First system is a slow moving front which may stall out over
the Mississippi Valley as it acts as a focus for enhanced rainfall,
and will eventually move into the eastern Tennessee Valley. The
second half of the week is looking to bring multiple rounds of rain
and hopefully over an inch of precipitation to all locations when
everything is said and done. The systems during the work week do not
look like they have very favorable dynamics to produce widespread
severe weather, but thunderstorms are definitely a possibility.

Heading into the weekend there's a more pronounced system looking to
move through with better synoptic dynamics. This could possibly
bring some stronger thunderstorms to the region, but with it being
5+ days out it's difficult to get into the specifics at this
point... But the weekend is shaping up to bring more rain to the
region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

LLWS has been added in to CHA and TYS again as winds a few
thousand feet AGL remain 30 to 35 kts with limited winds at the
surface. This will continue into early morning with MVFR also
likely at CHA. Throughout the day, southerly to southwesterly winds
at the surface will increase with gusts to 20 kts possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 75 60 82 62 / 10 10 20 20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 74 58 81 62 / 10 10 30 20
Oak Ridge, TN 73 58 80 61 / 10 0 20 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 72 52 78 57 / 20 0 30 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

293
FXUS64 KMRX 311839
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
239 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 237 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

- Very warm through Saturday. Cold front late weekend will bring
cooler temperatures early next week.

- Chances for showers and storms will increase Wednesday through
Saturday, mainly in the afternoon with greater coverage across the
higher elevations. More widespread showers expected late Saturday
night and Sunday morning.

- Cooler temperatures with frost possible Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

The upper level pattern for much of the week will be characterized
by upper ridging across the southeast United States with a series of short-waves exiting into the Plains states into the Great Lakes.
Surface ridging into the Carolinas and far southeast United States
will keep deep moisture from moving north into the east Tennessee
valley and southern Appalachains with dewpoints in the 50s to lower
60s.

However, HREF and deterministic models do show enough instability
increase to produce mainly diurnal convection especially across the
higher elevations for Wednesday through Saturday. Isolated strong
storm is possible but shear and instability not strong enough for
organized thunderstorm development.

Upper ridging will produce unseasonably warm conditions over the
region with highs 15 to almost 20 degrees above normal. At this
time, record temperatures are not anticipated.

For late Saturday into Sunday morning, a deeper short-wave will move
across the Great Lakes/Ohio valley. Upper level jet will extend far
enough south to put the area under the favored right entrance region
of the jet. Broad divergence is noted which will enhance the frontal-
genetic forcing along an incoming front. A line of convection is
expected late Saturday night/Sunday morning.

LREF and deterministic models show very limited instability and
mainly elevated. Embedded thunderstorms are possible but limited
instability and effective shear will keep potential of severe storms
low.

For Monday and Tuesday of next week, dry northwest flow and surface
ridging will produce dry conditions and more seasonal temperatures.
Some frost development is possible Monday and Tuesday mornings.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 114 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Main forecast concern is the chance of showers and possibly a
thunderstorm Wednesday. Greatest coverage will likely be during
the afternoon hours.

Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected with southerly winds of 7
to 15 knots with gusts in excess of 20 knots

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 62 83 61 84 / 10 30 20 20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 82 61 84 / 10 40 20 30
Oak Ridge, TN 60 82 59 84 / 10 40 10 30
Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 80 56 82 / 10 40 20 30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DH


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

120
FXUS64 KMRX 010639
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
239 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 239 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

- Very warm through Saturday. 15 to 20 degrees above normal.

- Chances for PM showers and storms will increase through Friday,
with greater coverage across the higher elevations. More widespread
showers expected late Saturday night and Sunday morning.

- Cold front late weekend will bring cooler temperatures early
next week. Frost possible Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

In comparison to yesterday, today will be a couple of degrees warmer
with higher humidity and an increase in shower and storm potential.
The greatest coverage will be over the higher terrain of the
Southern Appalachians and Cumberland Plateau. Not a whole lot of
shear to work with, so organized convection will be hard to come by.
CAPE will run close to 1,000 J/kg. A few hundredths to a couple
tenths of an inch of precipitation is possible through late this
evening. Activity dies after sunset. Although southwesterly flow
will continue, gusts may not be as strong as yesterday afternoon.

The summer-like pattern continues through the end of the work-week,
with scattered PM showers and storms across our area. And not to
mention, temperatures will be well above normal with low and
possibly mid 80s for the valley each day through Saturday.
Temperatures will be running 15 to 20 degrees above average. Tying
and breaking of records at the climate sites, is possible. Tri-
Cities did tie the high temperature record for yesterday afternoon.

A pattern change arrives this weekend when a deeper trough is
forecast to take a Northern Plains to Western Great Lakes track. A
deepening low pressure center near the central US will also track
towards the Great Lakes. A trailing cold front will reach the
forecast area sometime late Saturday into early Sunday. The
potentially strong frontal system will hopefully bring much needed precipitation area-wide. Still too early to know if strong to severe
storms will accompany this system. So far, only WPC highlights a
MRGL risk for flash flooding for the Day 5 period.

Following the front, cooler more seasonable temperatures beginning
Easter Sunday to kick start the first full week of April. A dry few
days may set in with low afternoon RHs, so a possible return of
enhanced fire danger. Frost development may even be possible some
mornings early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 104 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Fairly light winds and a few mid level clouds are expected for the
rest of the night into the morning hours. During the day,
southerly to southwesterly winds will increase with gusts nearing
20 kts at TYS and potentially CHA. Afternoon showers and storms
are possible with limited coverage expected around CHA. TYS and
TRI, however, have better chances of seeing something at the
terminal. Chances do look highest at TRI, but both were kept as
PROB30s for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 83 62 85 63 / 40 20 20 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 82 62 85 62 / 50 20 40 10
Oak Ridge, TN 81 61 84 62 / 50 20 30 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 79 57 82 57 / 70 20 40 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

<html><head>
<title>503 Service Unavailable</title>
</head><body>
<h1>Service Unavailable</h1>
<p>The server is temporarily unable to service your
request due to maintenance downtime or capacity
problems. Please try again later.</p>


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

819
FXUS64 KMRX 020633
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
233 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 233 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

- Very warm through Saturday. 15 to 20 degrees above normal.

- Chances for PM showers and storms through the end of the week,
with greater coverage across the higher elevations. Better chances
for more widespread showers and possible storms expected late
Saturday night and Sunday morning.

- Cold front late weekend will bring cooler temperatures early
next week. Frost possible Monday through Wednesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Today will be much like yesterday, except maybe lesser coverage in
higher terrain storms. According to the 00z HRRR, instability will
be weaker. Any storm that does form though does have the chance of
becoming strong with primary hazards being gusty winds, small hail,
downpours, and lightning. Basically the same can be said for Friday
with a diurnal increase in isolated to scattered showers and storms.
Southerly to southwesterly winds and gusts could be higher today due
to a low pressure center moving towards Lake Michigan and the
surface high remaining anchored over the western Atlantic.

Even with a shortwave trough moving towards the western Great Lakes
later today, we will remain mostly under the influence of the upper
ridge with very warm temperatures continuing. Low to mid 80s for
most, expected each day through Saturday. These values run 15 to 20
degrees above normal for early April.

A pattern change arrives this weekend when a deeper trough is
forecast to take a Northern Plains to Western Great Lakes track. A
deepening low pressure center near the central US will also track
towards the Great Lakes. A trailing cold front will reach the
forecast area sometime late Saturday into early Sunday. The
potentially strong frontal system will hopefully bring much needed precipitation area-wide. Some locations could see up to or just over
one inch of rainfall. Although it is still too early to know if
strong to severe storms will accompany this system, WPC highlights a
MRGL risk for flash flooding for the Day 4 period.

Following the front, cooler more seasonable temperatures beginning
Easter Sunday to kick start the first full week of April. A dry few
days may set in with low afternoon RHs, so a possible return of
enhanced fire danger. Frost development may even be possible some
mornings early next week. A secondary cold front around Tues/Wed may
bring even colder temperatures to the area Wednesday morning. For
example, Tri-Cities averages a low of 41 degrees April 8th, but the
current forecast is calling for low 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 111 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Light and variable winds are expected overnight into the morning
hours with limited cloud cover generally between 5,000 and 10,000
feet. Throughout the day, increasing southerly to southwesterly
winds are expected with gusts of 20 kts or greater likely at CHA
and TYS. There are some chances for showers or isolated storms in
the afternoon, but confidence remains low enough for it to be left
out of the TAFs. If anything did hit one of the terminals, TRI has
the highest chance for impact.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 85 63 84 63 / 20 10 10 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 84 63 82 61 / 20 0 20 10
Oak Ridge, TN 84 63 82 61 / 20 20 20 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 58 80 57 / 20 0 20 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

189
FXUS64 KMRX 021752
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
152 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 142 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

- Warm through the rest of the week and into the weekend.

- Increasing chances for more widespread showers and storms expected
late Saturday night and Sunday morning along a cold front.

- Cold front this weekend will bring cooler temperatures early
next week. Frost possible Monday through Wednesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Currently another very warm April day, likely to be the warmest day
of this 7-day forecast as temperatures are in the 80's early this
afternoon across much of the eastern Tennessee Valley. Satellite
imagery shows some cumulus forming along the higher terrain and some
of this could bubble up enough to cause brief, very isolated,
showers or thunderstorms mainly across the higher elevation. Can't
rule out a rogue shower dropping down into the valley, but for the
vast majority of the population, today will be another sunny and
warm day.

Warm temperatures continue tomorrow, but should be a few degrees
lower as there's a bit more cloud coverage with a shortwave moving
through the northern US.

We'll get a cool down this weekend when a trough moves through the
Northern Plains into the Great Lakes Region. At the same time a low
pressure center near the central US will also track towards the
Great Lakes. This will drag along with it a cold front that should
sweep through the eastern Tennessee Valley Saturday night into early
Sunday. This will be our best chance for widespread precipitation
over the next 7-days which is definitely needed with the ongoing
drought conditions across the southeastern United States. Some
locations could see up to or just over one inch of rainfall. There
look to be some decent dynamics in this system, and we can't rule
out seeing strong to severe thunderstorms. If we end up getting the
1+ inches of rain this could lead to brief isolated flooding of low
lying and urban areas during the time of heaviest rainfall. But with
the river and lake levels lower than normal... River flooding is not anticipated at this time.

Following the front, cooler more seasonable temperatures are
expected Sunday into next week. A dry few days may set in with low
afternoon RHs, which could bring back fire weather conditions. Frost development may even be possible some mornings early next week
behind the front as a second cold front Tuesday/Wednesday may bring
even colder temperatures to the area Wednesday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours at all sites. Winds
will continue to be gusty for the first part of this TAF cycle, but
will slack off with the setting sun. Expect winds to pick back up
tomorrow, but with increased clouds, the gusts should remain
lower.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 84 63 84 / 10 10 10 50
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 82 61 83 / 0 20 10 60
Oak Ridge, TN 63 82 61 82 / 20 20 0 60
Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 80 57 82 / 0 20 0 60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

385
FXUS64 KMRX 030619
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
219 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 214 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

- Well above normal temperatures will continue through Saturday.

- Afternoon showers and storms will be isolated today and confined
mainly to Northeast Tennessee.

- Scattered showers and storms expected Saturday afternoon
becoming more widespread Saturday night into Sunday morning
along a cold front.

- Cold front this weekend will bring cooler temperatures early next
week. Frost possible each morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.
A shortwave is moving through the Midwest into the Great Lakes
currently. At the surface, a low is moving into the Great Lakes
tonight but that cold front will stay well to our north with ridging
and high pressure over the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Radar will
remain quiet tonight although a spotty shower in the Cumberland
Plateau cannot be ruled out. This afternoon shower and storm
activity will be isolated and confined mainly to Northeast
Tennessee. Temps will still be warm today with highs in the lower
80s in the TN Valley. A smidge more cloud cover is likely today.

Tomorrow afternoon, showers and storms will be more scattered as the
ridge starts to break down. Saturday night into Sunday morning,
widespread showers and storms are expected as a cold front moves
through. This system will have good upper level support with a
trough making it into the Southeast. At the surface, the parent low
will move through the Great Lakes bringing a cold front through the
region by Sunday morning. A few strong storms cannot be ruled out but instability looks very low with storm timing late in the evening or
overnight. Dew points will only get into the lower 60s in the
Tennessee Valley. Much of the region will get a much needed rain
with forecast rain totals around one inch.

Rain will start to taper off Sunday morning as a much cooler air
mass moves into the region. Highs from Sunday through midweek will
be closer to seasonal normals in the 60s. Much cooler than recent
weather. Frost will be a concern Monday through Wednesday mornings
especially for the northern half of the region and the mountains.
Dry weather will continue through midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 214 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

VFR through the period. A low chance for a few showers near KTRI
in the afternoon and evening. No thunder expected. Winds should
lessen the remainder of the night, then return during the day,
with gusts to near 20 knots at KTYS. Wind to follow typical
diurnal pattern in intensity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 84 63 83 56 / 10 10 50 90
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 61 82 55 / 20 10 60 90
Oak Ridge, TN 82 62 82 54 / 20 0 50 100
Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 57 81 56 / 20 0 60 80

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

329
FXUS64 KMRX 031848
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
248 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 241 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

- Well above normal temperatures will continue through Saturday.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms expected Saturday
afternoon becoming more widespread Saturday night into Sunday
morning along a cold front.

- Cold front this weekend will bring cooler temperatures early
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

In the upper levels the southern Appalachians remain under influence
of a ridge while troughing swings through the Mountain West into the
Northern Plains. Isolated showers are possible in the mountains and
foothills this afternoon, but most will remain dry with well above
normal temperatures being the focus for the remainder of the day.
Afternoon high temperatures look as though they will fall a few
degrees shy of breaking any daily records. Quiet weather with mild temperatures overnight.

Cyclogenesis is expected beneath strong upper divergence as a sfc
low progresses through the Ozarks and into the Great Lakes Region
Saturday into Saturday night. Weak isentropic ascent and a vort lobe
may promote some isolated to weakly scattered showers and storms
tomorrow afternoon, with activity becoming increasingly widespread
Saturday evening along and ahead of an approaching cold front.

The upr troughing will expand southward through the Ohio Valley and
into the Tennessee Valley, giving way to moderate upper level
support Saturday night. This will translate to the lower levels as a
40-45 kt swly LLJ develops atop the forecast area, and promotes
gusty winds across the East Tennessee mountains. No wind advisory is
expected at this time as the LLJ is more marginal, and the pressure
gradient is weak with the sfc low so far to our north. However, I
wouldn't be surprised to see those highest peaks, such as Cove
Mountain, gusting to 40-45mph.

Regarding convective strength, latest hi-resolution guidance depicts
the diurnal sfc inversion developing ahead of the front, suggesting
this activity will struggle to remain surface based during an
overnight passage. Some elevated instability will promote moderate
to heavy downpours as the main axis of forcing swings through the
region. The strongest storms could bring gusty winds upwards of
40mph, but severe chances look rather low due to the overnight
timing.

Rain will gradually clear out Sunday morning, leading to a mostly
dry and cooler Sunday afternoon. We settle into a drier period from
here on out. A few instances of morning frost may be possible for
northern and high elevation locations Mon-Wed, with Wed morning
looking the most probable at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

VFR conditions expected through the TAF cycle. Southwest winds
around 10kts, gusting to near 20kts at TYS, will gradually wane
this evening. Winds will follow a similar diurnal pattern and
intensity tomorrow afternoon. Brief period of low VFR/MVFR clouds
possible near CHA tomorrow morning. Confidence not high enough to
include predominant MVFR conditions at this time, but it may need
to be considered with future issuances.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 83 54 69 / 10 40 100 50
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 82 54 67 / 10 40 100 60
Oak Ridge, TN 61 81 53 67 / 0 30 100 40
Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 80 54 65 / 10 50 90 70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...KRS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

644
FXUS64 KMRX 040601
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
201 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 142 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

- Well above normal temperatures will continue today.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms expected this afternoon
becoming more widespread tonight into Sunday morning as a cold
front approaches.

- Cold front Sunday morning will bring cooler temperatures early
next week.

- Dry weather Sunday afternoon through the workweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Currently, ridging and high pressure are still over the region. A
few showers or storms may move through the North Carolina counties
this morning. Some isolated shower or storm activity is possible
areawide by late morning and early afternoon as the ridge starts to
break down. By mid afternoon, coverage will be isolated to scattered
with summerlike pulse showers and storms expected with very warm
temperatures with highs in the lower 80s again today in the TN
Valley.

By this evening, widespread showers and storms are expected as a
cold front approaches. This system will have good upper level
support with a trough making it into the Southeast. At the surface,
the parent low will move through the Great Lakes bringing a cold
front through the region early Sunday morning. A few strong storms
cannot be ruled out but instability looks very low with storm timing
late in the evening. Dew points will only get into the lower 60s in
the Tennessee Valley. Much of the region will get a much needed rain
with forecast rain totals around one inch.

Southwesterly winds will be gusty today ahead of this system with
gusts around 25 mph expected in the TN Valley at times. Gusts will
be a bit higher in the East Tennessee mountains and foothills but
will likely stay below Wind Advisory criteria (gusts 40 mph+) with
850 mb winds peaking around 30-35 knots with more of a southwesterly
wind direction that is not as favorable for downslope enhancement.
Though I would not be surprised if some of the tallest peaks hit 40-
45mph but it will likely not be widespread enough for an advisory.

Rain will start to taper off Sunday morning as a much cooler air
mass moves into the region. Highs from Sunday through Tuesday will
be closer to seasonal normals in the 60s. Much cooler than recent
weather. Frost may be a concern Monday through Wednesday mornings
especially for the northern half of the region and the mountains.
Dry weather will continue through the workweek and a warming trend
will start Wednesday with highs getting into the 70s through Friday
for most of the TN Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

VFR TAFs to continue until arrival of TS later in the period.
Southwest winds to gust back to 20 knots this afternoon. A few
scattered rain showers or thunderstorms likely this afternoon,
mainly in northeastern TN. A PROB30 at KTRI is to account for that
activity. Otherwise a decaying line of thunderstorms and
stratiform rain will be approaching late in the period tonight.
Timing is close to a 6z arrival for KCHA and KTYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 83 54 69 45 / 40 100 50 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 82 54 67 42 / 40 100 60 0
Oak Ridge, TN 81 53 67 41 / 30 100 40 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 54 65 38 / 50 90 70 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

709
FXUS64 KMRX 041839
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
239 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 233 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

- Well above normal temperatures will continue today.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms expected this
afternoon, becoming more widespread tonight into Sunday morning
as a cold front approaches.

- Cold front Sunday morning will bring cooler temperatures early
next week and dry weather Sunday afternoon through the work
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Upper level ridging will gradually breakdown as a trough progresses
into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley regions today into Sunday.
Diurnal convection is becoming more prominent on the regional radar
mosaic as an initial vorticity lobe helps kick start the ridge
breakdown this afternoon. Both MLCAPE and DCAPE are around 500-
700J/kg per latest mesoanalysis. Strongest convection could bring
brief heavy downpour, small hail, or locally gusty winds, but
severe is unlikely.

As H5 heights fall this evening into tonight, a swly H85 jet near 40-
45kts and surface cold front will translate across the forecast
area. Warm and moist air advection from the LLJ will promote
moderate low-level shear with marginal elevated CAPE per latest hi-
resolution guidance. Latest SPC HREF run depicts quickly diminishing
SBCAPE as the main axis of convection moves in, with soundings
showing a low level inversion developing. This will help limit
potential hazards. The primary threat will be strong to isolated
damaging wind gusts. It is also possible to have some small hail.
While there is some decent low-level shear, the aforementioned
inversion will keep the tornado threat very close to zero. A period
of gusty winds up to 35mph is also likely in the East Tennessee
mountains. While conditions are not favorable for advisory level
winds widespread, it wouldn't catch me by surprise to see Cove
Mountain gusting to around 40-45mph.

Rain chances will linger into the morning hours, with the area
expected to remain largely dry as we go through Sunday afternoon.
Cooler temperatures can be expected through Tuesday, with a gradual
warming trend mid and late week as the upper trough ejects
northeast. An extended period under the effect of high pressure and
associated subsidence seems likely, with a dry forecast through the
remainder of the 7 day period. Afternoons through the work week will
entail low afternoon relative humidities. Higher terrain and
northern areas could see some potential morning frost conditions if
overnight RH recovery is strong enough Mon-Wed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 129 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across the area this
afternoon. An approaching cold front will bring widespread showers
and thunderstorms late tonight into the overnight. Reduced
visibility and MVFR cigs are expected as this activity spreads
across the region. A return to VFR conditions is expected at CHA
late morning, with MVFR cigs persisting into the early afternoon
at TRI and TYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 54 68 44 70 / 100 70 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 54 65 41 66 / 100 80 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 52 67 40 68 / 100 60 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 53 64 37 64 / 100 90 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...KRS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

308
FXUS64 KMRX 050544
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
144 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 130 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

- Widespread rain with pockets of heavy rain will continue
overnight and into the morning hours.

- Cold front this morning will bring cooler temperatures early in
the week.

- Dry weather this afternoon through the workweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Widespread rain with pockets of heavy rain is moving through the
region ahead of a cold front, currently located in Middle Tennessee.
The severe threat is over as instability has plummeted across the
region. Lightning is very sparse and will remain isolated overnight.
Some gusty winds will still be possible in the stronger showers
overnight possibly up to 35 mph. The latest run of CAMs show good
chances for widespread moderate rain continuing overnight becoming a
light rain by daybreak. Storm total rainfall forecast has gone up a
bit with most locations expecting about an inch of rain with higher
amounts closer to 1.5 inches possible through the TN Valley. With
some degree of drought conditions across most of the region, any
flooding issues overnight would likely be minor flooding in
typical spots.

Gusty winds will continue overnight in the East Tennessee mountains
and foothills but are still expected to stay below Wind Advisory
criteria (gusts 40 mph+) with 850 mb winds peaking around 30-35
knots with more of a southwesterly wind direction that is not as
favorable for downslope enhancement. Cove Mountain has been gusting
around 40 mph for the past few hours. Most mountain and wind prone
foothill locations will probably stay in the 30 to 35 mph gust
range. Winds will start to decrease by daybreak as the low level jet
moves out.

Rain will start to taper off this morning, ending completely across
the region by noon. A cool, dry air mass moves into the region today
behind the front. Highs today through Tuesday will be closer to
seasonal normals in the 60s. Much cooler than recent weather. Frost
may be a concern Monday through Wednesday mornings in the north and
the mountains as soil moisture lingers. Dry weather will continue
through the workweek and a warming trend will start Wednesday with
highs getting into the 70s through Friday for most of the TN Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Widespread rain will be moderate to heavy at times over the next
few hours. Lightning has been very sparse and therefore removed
from TAFs. Low level wind shear around 30 knots is possible for at
least the next few hours. CIGs and vis will deteriorate overnight
with MVFR conditions likely into the morning hours. IFR CIGs are
possible in the early morning hours with the best chance near TRI.
Light rain will linger into the morning hours especially near TYS
and TRI with CIGs slow to improve. VFR will return by tomorrow
afternoon as rain moves out.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 44 70 46 / 70 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 41 66 43 / 80 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 67 40 68 43 / 60 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 37 64 38 / 90 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

164
FXUS64 KMRX 051817
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
217 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 213 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

- Dry weather this week and through the upcoming weekend.

- Cooler to start the period, with a warming trend for Wednesday
through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Currently, cooler and drier air continues to filter in behind the
departed cold front as surface high pressure builds in from the
west. A rather uneventful weather week looks to be on tap for this
forecast period. High pressure will remain in control through
Monday, then a moisture starved cold front will approach late Monday
and push through our area Monday night into Tuesday before washing
out. No precipitation is expected with this front, but another shot
of cooler air will move in behind it. We will start the week with temperatures around or even slightly below seasonal normals and
there may be some late night/early morning patchy frost in a few
areas during the next few nights, especially north, with the coldest
night likely to be Tuesday night.

Relative humidity values will be low each day as well over the next
several days, with minimum values likely dipping at least as low as
the upper 20s and 30s each afternoon across much of the area.

High pressure will continue to keep us dry for the remainder of the
period through Sunday, along with a warming trend beginning
Wednesday and continuing through the upcoming weekend. Temperatures
will be back to well above normal by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 116 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Any brief low cigs at TYS/TRI will quickly clear out with VFR
conditions expected all sites for the remainder of the period.
May be some fog around sunrise at TRI but right now the probability
of occurrence looks too low to include.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 44 70 45 71 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 41 66 43 65 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 40 68 41 66 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 37 63 39 60 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

724
FXUS64 KMRX 060617
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
217 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 215 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

- Dry weather this week and through the upcoming weekend.

- Cooler to start the week, with a warming trend for Wednesday
through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

In the upper levels, a deep trough is over the Eastern U.S. At the
surface, high pressure is building into the Midwest and Ohio Valley
today. By midweek, a weak ridge builds into the Southeast and high
pressure at the surface will be centered over the Northeast. Ridging
over the Southeast and high pressure at the surface will likely hold
through the weekend. Dry weather will continue all week and through
the weekend. Frost will be possible in Southwest Virginia, Northeast
Tennessee and the higher elevations this morning and tomorrow
morning as ground moisture lingers and temperatures drop in the
morning hours. By Wednesday morning, frost will still be possible
but more patchy as morning RH is lower.

Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons, will have good mixing
conditions with mostly sunny skies. Therefore, afternoon RH values
will be low in the 25-35% range in many locations. Fire weather
concerns should be minimal with the recent soaking rain and winds
will be light. Highs today and Tuesday will be in the 60s for most
of the Tennessee Valley. A warming trend will start Wednesday with
highs getting into the 70s through Friday and into the 80s for the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 215 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

VFR conditions likely through the period, though uncertain about
fog potential this morning at KTRI. Generally light winds, though
a few gusts to 15 or 20 knots possible in the afternoon. High
cirrus.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 45 71 45 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 43 65 42 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 68 41 66 40 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 39 60 36 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

844
FXUS64 KMRX 061818
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
218 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 213 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

- Dry weather this week and through the upcoming weekend.

- Seasonably cool into Wednesday, followed by a warming trend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

A weak and moisture starved cold front currently just to our
north will sag south into our area this evening and may make it
south of our area later tonight before washing out Tuesday. This
front will have little impact other than to temporarily delay the
next warm up. Surface high pressure will build in behind the front
later tonight and Tuesday and will continue to extend into our
area as it shifts to the east Wednesday. This will keep things dry
and seasonably cool into Wednesday with temperatures near to a
bit below normal. There may be late night/early morning patchy
frost in a few areas over the next few nights, especially north,
with the coldest night likely to be Tuesday night.

Good mixing will lead to low relative humidity values each afternoon
over the next several days, with minimum RH values likely dipping
into the 20s and 30s each afternoon.

High pressure will remain in control with a dry weather forecast for
the remainder of the period through Monday, along with a warming
trend. Temperatures will be back to well above normal by the weekend
into Monday, with highs near or above 80 degrees common in valley
areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 106 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

VFR conditions expected for the period all sites. Winds will be
from the north and west around 10kts or less but with a few
higher gusts early, then will decrease tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 46 71 45 72 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 42 66 40 71 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 42 66 39 71 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 38 61 33 67 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

000
FXUS64 KMRX 070524
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
124 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 122 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

- Dry weather is expected across the area for the entire forecast
period.

- Seasonally cool temperatures are expected through Wednesday,
followed by a strong warming trend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Currently, mid/upper troughing is centered to our northeast with a
Canadian High diving into the northern U.S. Ahead of this Canadian
High, a cold front is moving through our region. With the lack of
moisture, the main result will be northerly flow and a continuation
of cooler and drier conditions. Low relative humidity values in the
20s are expected again today. By tonight, the high will be centered
over the eastern Great Lakes, leading to stronger subsidence and
lighter winds in our area. Patchy frost will be more likely into
Wednesday morning, especially in northeastern parts of the area.
Height rises will promote the start of a warming trend on Wednesday
with continued dry conditions during the day. By Thursday, the flow
aloft will become more zonal with high pressure having pushed off
to the east. This will keep conditions dry and seasonally mild.

Friday through the weekend, the pattern will become more amplified
as a Pacific trough with stronger upstream flow moves onshore. This
will lead to increasing ridging across the eastern U.S., further
enhancing the warming trend from late in the week. A system is
expected to develop in the northern Great Plains Sunday into Monday,
but high pressure will keep our region dry. The result will be
increasing southerly flow and temperatures rising well into the
80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 122 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

VFR with dry weather to continue. A few gusts to 15 knots
tomorrow, especially near KCHA, but generally light and northerly
winds otherwise.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 45 72 46 / 0 0 0 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 40 71 42 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 66 39 71 43 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 33 67 36 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

171
FXUS64 KMRX 071821
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
221 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 219 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

- Dry weather is expected for the forecast period.

- Seasonably cool into Wednesday, followed by a strong warming
trend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Canadian high pressure currently centered to our north will
continue to extend into our area as it slides east through
Wednesday. This high is providing dry and seasonably cool
conditions. Patchy frost will be possible late tonight especially
in normally colder outlying valley areas, with the highest chance
for frost across the north. Temperatures in these locations will
likely dip into the mid to upper 30s. and a few spots in the north
will bottom out around freezing. Relative humidity values are low
this afternoon and will be low again Wednesday afternoon,
bottoming out in the 20s in most locations. High temperatures
Wednesday will be close to normal for this time of year.

Heights will be rising Thursday and high pressure will continue to
extend into the area. A few locations mainly north may see patchy
frost again late Wed night, but after a chilly start Thursday
temperatures in most valley locations will rise into the 70 to 75
range signaling the start of a strong warming trend. Temperatures
are expected to climb well above normal by the Saturday through
Tuesday time frame with most valley locations seeing highs in the
lower to mid 80s. Relative humidity values will be low each
afternoon at least into the weekend. Models generally agree that we
will see the dry conditions continue through the weekend into early
next week. However, some models show a weak and moisture starved
cold front possibly making it far enough south to bring a few light
showers to our northern areas around the Saturday time frame.
However, right now this looks like a minority solution and the
weekend is likely to stay dry. By Tuesday, a system approaching from
the west may be close enough to bring a few showers or storms, but
again the probability of precipitation looks quite low at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

VFR conditions expected for the period all sites. Winds will be
north and northeast around 10kts or less early with a few higher
gusts especially at CHA, then winds will become light.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 44 72 46 75 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 39 71 43 73 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 40 72 43 73 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 33 67 36 71 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

123
FXUS64 KMRX 080607
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
207 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 205 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

- A significant warming trend is expected through the weekend with
highs rising well into the 80s by Sunday.

- No rain is expected through Monday with low RH's for at least
the next couple of days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Currently, quasi-zonal flow is in place aloft with 1,035mb high
pressure centered over New England. Subsidence will keep dry air in
place with an even cooler morning than previous days. Throughout the
day, high pressure will shift further to the east, increasing
southerly flow. Slight height rises will begin a warming trend with temperatures rising into the 70s for most. Low RH values are
expected again, but weak 850mb flow and MSLP gradient will keep
winds more limited in our area. By Thursday, further height rises
are expected with fairly zonal flow remaining aloft. Even lower RH
values in the 20s can be expected, but low-level flow and the MSLP
gradient will remain weak.


By Friday into Saturday, a trough/closed low will move onshore from
the Pacific with increasing ridging and another area of high
pressure in the east. This will further the warming trend with high temperatures likely rising into the 80s for most by Saturday. On
Sunday, troughing will move through the Rockies with an initial
surface low developing in the northern Great Plains and then
tracking into Canada. This will increase southerly flow and height
rises in the eastern U.S. with much of the area rising well into the
80s. High pressure to the east will keep dry conditions in place in
our area. By Monday, troughing will dig down as it ejects out of the
Rockies with another surface low/frontal boundary eventually moving
towards the region. High pressure and southerly flow will keep warm
and dry conditions in place on Monday before rain chances return for
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 205 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

VFR TAFs with no weather expected. Winds will be very light
through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 46 75 47 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 43 73 44 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 72 43 73 45 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 36 71 40 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

045
FXUS64 KMRX 081819
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
219 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 213 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

- A significant warming trend is expected through the weekend
with very warm conditions then continuing through Wednesday.

- No rain is expected through Tuesday with low RH's for at least
the next few days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

We start the period with quasi-zonal flow aloft and strong
surface high pressure extending into our area from the east and
northeast. High pressure will continue to extend over our area for
the next several days and the quasi-zonal flow aloft will
eventually give way to upper ridging during the weekend. We will
continue to see mainly dry days with low relative humidity values
during the afternoons each day at least through the weekend. We
will also see a warming trend. Temperatures are expected to climb
well above normal by the Sunday through Tuesday time frame with
most valley locations seeing highs in the lower to mid 80s.

Precipitation chances are low at best for the period. A weak and
moisture starved cold front may sag briefly south into our northern
areas this weekend, and a few northern spots may see a sprinkle or
light shower Saturday although chances for measurable precipitation
look low and the NBM currently keeps things precip free. By
Wednesday a front approaching from the west may bring a better
chance for convection into the area. However, the details that far
out are still murky as model consistency has been poor, and trends
have generally been to slow the arrival of precipitation for our
area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1253 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the period all sites. Winds will
be southeast around 10 kts or less at CHA early in the period.
Otherwise, winds will generally be light.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 47 75 47 80 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 45 75 45 76 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 45 75 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 38 72 41 75 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

587
FXUS64 KMRX 090547
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
147 AM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 143 AM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026

- A significant warming trend is expected through the weekend with high
temperatures rising well into the 80s Sunday into next week.

- No rain is expected through Monday with low RH's for at least
the next couple of days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 143 AM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Currently, fairly weak flow is in place aloft with a shortwave and
upper jet well to our north. High pressure is centered off the New
England coast. Dry weather will persist with height rises leading to
a continuation of the warming trend. Very low RH's can be expected
again, likely dropping well into the 20s or possibly teens. Luckily,
850mb flow is 5 kts or less with a weak MSLP gradient. By Friday, a trough/closed low will move onshore from the Pacific with some
expansion of ridging from the southwest. This will lead to a
continuation in warming with highs approaching 80 degrees. High
pressure will recede some but keep dry conditions in place.
Similarly low RH values are expected, but low-level flow and the
MSLP gradient remain weak.

By Saturday, troughing to the west will approach the Rockies with
more significant expansion of ridging from the southwest. Another
surface high will progress to our north, leading to dry northerly
flow. The height rises will further expand the warming trend. Sunday
to Monday, western troughing will move through the Rockies with high
pressure shifting further to the east. With 500mb heights reaching
summer normals of 5,840m, temperatures will rise well into the 80s
area-wide. The stronger MSLP gradient and southerly flow will lead
to increasing winds, combined with low RH values. Rain chances do
not return until potentially later in the week, but recent trends
have trended downward in recent days. This will further exacerbate
the drought with Knoxville and Chattanooga now at their lowest year-
to-date rainfall (Jan 1st - Apr 9th) since 2007.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 143 AM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026

VFR, dry, and light winds likely to persist through the period as
high pressure continues to dominate the regional weather pattern.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 75 47 80 51 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 75 45 76 50 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 75 46 77 49 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 72 41 75 46 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

048
FXUS64 KMRX 091822
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
222 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 217 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026

- A significant warming trend is expected through the weekend with
high temperatures rising well into the 80s by Sunday into next
week.

- Little or no precipitation is expected, and low afternoon
relative humidity values will the norm for the period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026

We start the period with quasi-zonal flow aloft and strong surface
high pressure extending into our area from the east and northeast.
High pressure will continue to extend over our area for the next
several days and the flow aloft will eventually transition to upper
ridging during the weekend. Very low relative humidity values are
occurring this afternoon and can be expected again tomorrow
afternoon, and low afternoon relative humidity values will likely
occur most days over the next week at least through Wednesday. We
will continue to see a warming trend into the weekend, and high
temperatures will be well above normal by Sunday and continuing
through the end of the period (next Thursday). Some record highs may
be approached or possibly exceeded during the weekend into next
week, with the days with records most under threat currently looking
like Tuesday and Wednesday. Record high information for the weekend
and beyond is included below for easy reference:

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge
04-11 87(2001) 86(2001) 86(2001) 85(2001)
04-12 89(1887) 87(1930) 84(1945) 87(1948)
04-13 88(1887) 89(1887) 86(1981) 86(2017)
04-14 87(2010) 86(1887) 85(1938) 88(2017)
04-15 87(2006) 87(1936) 85(1945) 86(2024)
04-16 89(2002) 87(1896) 87(2002) 88(2002)

Precipitation chances are low at best for the period. A weak and
moisture starved cold front will sag briefly south into our northern
areas Saturday, and a few northern spots may see a sprinkle or
shower Saturday although chances for measurable precipitation look
low. By Thursday a front approaching from the west may bring a
better chance for convection into the area. However, the details
that far out are still murky as model consistency has been poor, and
model trends have generally been to slow the arrival of
precipitation for our area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the period all sites. Winds will
generally be light.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 47 79 51 84 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 45 76 51 80 / 0 0 0 10
Oak Ridge, TN 47 77 50 81 / 0 0 0 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 39 75 47 76 / 0 0 0 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

710
FXUS64 KMRX 100630
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
230 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 226 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

- A warming trend will continue this weekend into next week.
Southern portions of the region could approach the 90-degree
mark next week.

- No rain is forecast through at least early next week with
limited chances later in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Currently, weak quasi-zonal flow is in place aloft with the upper
jet well to our north. A trough/closed low is also approaching the
Pacific Coast. High pressure still remains in place but has shifted
further to the east. With this setup, another dry day is expected
today with RH values in the 20s and recent height rises pushing
highs well into the 70s. Thankfully, low-level flow/MSLP gradient
remains weak. By Saturday, the trough/closed low will be moving into
the western U.S. with another area of high pressure tracking to our
north. This will provide dry northerly flow with more substantial
height rises as ridging expands in the east. Winds will remain light
overall, but highs will start rising further into the 80s. By
Sunday, high pressure will be off to our northeast with 500mb
heights rising to near mid-summer normals of 5,850m. This will
increase broad southerly flow and make a case for highs well into
the 80s. Conditions will also be breezier due to broad southerly
flow and stronger MSLP gradient.

An initial system will track along the northern Great Lakes early in
the week with another by the second half of the week. The frontal
boundary associated with these systems will somewhat approach from
the northwest, but much of the moisture and lift will remain well to
our north and west. While some rain chances do move in later in the
week, trends suggest this will be nowhere near what's needed to help
the expanding drought. Near-record heat is likely into next week
with the values listed below:

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge
04-11 87(2001) 86(2001) 86(2001) 85(2001)
04-12 89(1887) 87(1930) 84(1945) 87(1948)
04-13 88(1887) 89(1887) 86(1981) 86(2017)
04-14 87(2010) 86(1887) 85(1938) 88(2017)
04-15 87(2006) 87(1936) 85(1945) 86(2024)
04-16 89(2002) 87(1896) 87(2002) 88(2002)

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 134 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

VFR conditions and light winds prevail for the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 80 53 85 54 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 77 51 81 54 / 0 10 10 0
Oak Ridge, TN 78 51 82 53 / 0 10 10 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 75 47 78 50 / 0 10 10 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...KRS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

481
FXUS64 KMRX 101743
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
143 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 142 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

- A warming trend will continue this weekend, with above normal
temperatures expected through next week. Record highs are possible
next week.

- Dry weather is likely to persist through next week, worsening
drought and fire conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

The dominant weather feature through this forecast period will be a
large high pressure ridge located across the Southeast today,
drifting slowly to the Atlantic coast by the end of the weekend
where it will remain nearly stationary through next week. A series
of low pressure systems will cross the Plains, but the strength of
this ridge will prevent any precip from reaching our area as the low
pressure systems get deflected around the northern edge of the
ridge.

Persistent dry conditions and warm temperatures under the ridge will
raise concerns for fire interests next week. As high temperatures
warm into the 80s from Sunday onward, afternoon RH values will drop
into the 20s and 30s. Winds will be light this weekend but increase
on Sunday as a series of low pressure systems track near the Great
Lakes, and SW winds in the boundary layer may be enhanced by
channeling up the TN Valley - potentially 10 to 20 mph with 25+ mph
gusts. Fire weather interests should stay aware of these conditions
setting up for at least Sunday and Monday, and potentially the rest
of next week.

High temperatures will approach or exceed records next week. We
might come up a few degrees short of records on Sunday and Monday,
but highs in the range of 85 to 90 will be forecast for Tuesday
through Friday. Given the dry ground conditions, it would not be
surprising to see temperatures higher than that, as model guidance
may be underdoing daytime temperatures.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge
04-11 87(2001) 86(2001) 86(2001) 85(2001)
04-12 89(1887) 87(1930) 84(1945) 87(1948)
04-13 88(1887) 89(1887) 86(1981) 86(2017)
04-14 87(2010) 86(1887) 85(1938) 88(2017)
04-15 87(2006) 87(1936) 85(1945) 86(2024)
04-16 89(2002) 87(1896) 87(2002) 88(2002)
04-17 91(1955) 90(1896) 85(2002) 88(1955)

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

No aviation impacts are forecast this period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 53 85 54 86 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 51 81 54 85 / 10 10 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 51 82 53 84 / 10 10 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 47 78 50 82 / 10 10 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

342
FXUS64 KMRX 110648
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
248 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 232 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

- A warming trend will continue this weekend, with above normal
temperatures expected through next week. Record highs are possible
next week.

- Dry weather is likely to persist through next week, worsening
drought and fire conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

The forecast can be characterized by SE ridging and surface high
pressure eventually moving off of the coast. Weather systems will
primarily round the top of the ridge, keeping our area from seeing
much needed rainfall into the coming week. With high pressure
eventually situated to our east, southwest flow will send in much
warmer temperatures in the coming days. Some may see their first 90
degree reading of the year/season. A table of daily record highs
will be at the bottom of this discussion, as records could be tied
or broken.

The primary concern with persistent dry conditons since Easter, for
most, will be an increasing threat for fire potential; with
temperatures warming and not much in the way of moisture return.
Minimum RHs will mostly range in the 20 and 30 percent range. SW
winds are forecast to increase Sunday afternoon and most likely
remain in that general direction much of the week. Southwest winds
tend to be a favorable direction with a funneling-like effect up
valley, thus, creating stronger gusts. SPC Fire has placed western
parts of the forecast area under a Day 3 marginal risk for increased
winds, temps, low RH, paired with dry fuels concurrent for at least
3 hours. Even though winds will be stronger on Monday, increased
cloud cover may keep RHs from getting much lower.

Any chance for precipitation at all? A frontal boundary will drape
across the area later today. It's possible a shower or thunderstorm
develops near the northern plateau into southwest VA later this
afternoon. CAMs and deterministic models depict this chance,
although it'll be low. HREF probs show no more than a 30 percent
chance of a tenth of an inch or greater. The same areas may be
brushed by additional chances Monday, possibly Tuesday. The next
best chance of widespread rain for the entire forecast area most
likely won't be until the end of the forecast period.


Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge
04-11 87(2001) 86(2001) 86(2001) 85(2001)
04-12 89(1887) 87(1930) 84(1945) 87(1948)
04-13 88(1887) 89(1887) 86(1981) 86(2017)
04-14 87(2010) 86(1887) 85(1938) 88(2017)
04-15 87(2006) 87(1936) 85(1945) 86(2024)
04-16 89(2002) 87(1896) 87(2002) 88(2002)
04-17 91(1955) 90(1896) 85(2002) 88(1955)

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 153 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

VFR conditions with light winds continue through TAF cycle once
again. A very low chance an isolated light shower develops in the
TYS vicinity this afternoon, but with the dry air in place
probabilities are too low to include any mention at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 85 56 86 61 / 10 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 81 54 85 62 / 10 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 82 54 84 60 / 10 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 77 51 82 57 / 10 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...KRS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

164
FXUS64 KMRX 111746
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
146 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 114 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

- A warming trend will continue this weekend, with above normal
temperatures expected through next week. Record highs are possible
next week.

- Dry weather is likely to persist through next week, worsening
drought and fire conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 114 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Very little has changed regarding the forecast for the next week.
A large high pressure ridge across the Southeast will be the
dominant feature, providing dry and warm conditions. A series of
low pressure systems will cross the Plains and Great Lakes, but
the strength of this ridge will prevent any precip from reaching
our area until perhaps late next week when the ridge shifts off
the Atlantic coastline.

The main weather concern for this period will be fire weather
conditions. As high temperatures warm into the 80s, afternoon RH
values will drop into the 20s. Winds will increase tomorrow to
around 10-15 mph with gusts around 20, then increase again on
Monday, 10-20 with gusts 25-30 mph, aided by channeling of SW
winds up the TN Valley. Monday will have some cloud cover, which
may aid in keeping RH values from dropping below 25%. Fire
weather interests should stay aware of these conditions setting up
for Sunday and Monday, and potentially Tuesday and Wednesday as
well.

High temperatures will approach or exceed records next week. We
might come up a few degrees short of records on Sunday and Monday,
but highs in the range of 85 to 90 will be forecast for the TN
Valley Tuesday through Friday. Given the dry ground conditions,
it would not be surprising to see temperatures higher than that,
as model guidance may be underdoing daytime temperatures.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 04-12 89(1887) 87(1930) 84(1945) 87(1948)
04-13 88(1887) 89(1887) 86(1981) 86(2017)
04-14 87(2010) 86(1887) 85(1938) 88(2017)
04-15 87(2006) 87(1936) 85(1945) 86(2024)
04-16 89(2002) 87(1896) 87(2002) 88(2002)
04-17 91(1955) 90(1896) 85(2002) 88(1955)
04-18 90(2002) 90(1896) 87(2002) 89(2002)

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 114 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

VFR conditions continue through this period. Winds may approach 10
kt at all sites with gusts around 20 kt at TYS late in this TAF
period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 56 86 61 84 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 54 85 62 81 / 0 0 0 10
Oak Ridge, TN 54 84 60 81 / 0 0 0 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 51 82 57 79 / 0 0 0 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

999
FXUS64 KMRX 120645
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
245 AM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 229 AM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

- A warming trend with above normal temperatures expected through
this week. Record highs are possible.

- Dry weather is likely to persist through next week, worsening
drought and fire conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 AM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

The forecast can be characterized by SE ridging and a strong surface
high over New England, that will eventually meander to just off the
coast of the Mid-Atlantic. Weather systems will primarily round the
top of the ridge, keeping our area from seeing much needed rainfall
into the coming week. With high pressure eventually situating to our
east, southwest flow will send in much warmer temperatures in the
coming days. Some may see their first 90 degree reading of the
year/season. Any day with low RHs in the afternoon and really good
atmospheric mixing, could see temperatures a couple of degrees
warmer than guidance suggests. A table of daily record highs will be
at the bottom of this discussion, as records could be tied or broken.

The primary concern with persistent dry conditons since Easter, for
most, will be an increasing threat for fire weather; with
temperatures continually warming and not much in the way of moisture
return. Minimum RHs will mostly fall in the 20 and 30 percent range.
SW winds are forecast to increase this afternoon and most likely
remain in that general direction much of the week. Southwest winds
tend to be a favorable direction with a funneling-like effect up
valley, thus, creating stronger gusts. Gusts up to around 25 mph
possible today, increasing to near 30 mph tomorrow. SPC Fire placed
much of the forecast area under an elevated fire weather threat due
to winds, low RH, and dry fuels. Even though winds will be stronger
tomorrow, increased cloud cover may keep RHs from worsening with
mixing heights forecast to be a few thousand feet lower.

Any chance for precipitation at all? A couple of showers that
developed yesterday were able to spit out up to around two
hundredths of an inch across a portion of northeast TN, if you can
believe what was recorded. Today will be dry, but it's possible our northwestern fringes get brushed by light precipitation tomorrow and
Tuesday. A front will try to develop and punch through the ridge by
the end of the week, but confidence is low on just how much
precipitation could fall. QPF in very dry patterns tends to get cut
down once closer to the event. The LREF shows no more than a 40
percent chance of greater than a tenth of an inch Thursday into
Friday. And that's only for the northern Plateau into SW VA. The
next best chance of widespread rain for the entire forecast area
doesn't appear to be until just outside the forecast range, perhaps
early next week.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 04-12 89(1887) 87(1930) 84(1945) 87(1948)
04-13 88(1887) 89(1887) 86(1981) 86(2017)
04-14 87(2010) 86(1887) 85(1938) 88(2017)
04-15 87(2006) 87(1936) 85(1945) 86(2024)
04-16 89(2002) 87(1896) 87(2002) 88(2002)
04-17 91(1955) 90(1896) 85(2002) 88(1955)
04-18 90(2002) 90(1896) 87(2002) 89(2002)

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 AM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Main difference
relative to previous days will be the development of breezy south
to southwesterly winds in the afternoon hours. KCHA and KTYS will
be most likely to see some wind gusts in the 20-25kt range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 88 62 83 60 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 62 82 61 / 0 0 10 0
Oak Ridge, TN 87 60 82 59 / 0 0 10 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 85 57 79 56 / 0 0 10 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...KRS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

982
FXUS64 KMRX 121721
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
121 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 115 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

- A warming trend with above normal temperatures expected through
this week. Record highs are possible.

- Dry weather is likely to persist through next week, worsening
drought and fire conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 AM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

The forecast can be characterized by SE ridging and a strong surface
high over New England, that will eventually meander to just off the
coast of the Mid-Atlantic. Weather systems will primarily round the
top of the ridge, keeping our area from seeing much needed rainfall
into the coming week. With high pressure eventually situating to our
east, southwest flow will send in much warmer temperatures in the
coming days. Some may see their first 90 degree reading of the
year/season. Any day with low RHs in the afternoon and really good
atmospheric mixing, could see temperatures a couple of degrees
warmer than guidance suggests. A table of daily record highs will be
at the bottom of this discussion, as records could be tied or broken.

The primary concern with persistent dry conditons since Easter, for
most, will be an increasing threat for fire weather; with
temperatures continually warming and not much in the way of moisture
return. Minimum RHs will mostly fall in the 20 and 30 percent range.
SW winds are forecast to increase this afternoon and most likely
remain in that general direction much of the week. Southwest winds
tend to be a favorable direction with a funneling-like effect up
valley, thus, creating stronger gusts. Gusts up to around 25 mph
possible today, increasing to near 30 mph tomorrow. SPC Fire placed
much of the forecast area under an elevated fire weather threat due
to winds, low RH, and dry fuels. Even though winds will be stronger
tomorrow, increased cloud cover may keep RHs from worsening with
mixing heights forecast to be a few thousand feet lower.

Any chance for precipitation at all? A couple of showers that
developed yesterday were able to spit out up to around two
hundredths of an inch across a portion of northeast TN, if you can
believe what was recorded. Today will be dry, but it's possible our northwestern fringes get brushed by light precipitation tomorrow and
Tuesday. A front will try to develop and punch through the ridge by
the end of the week, but confidence is low on just how much
precipitation could fall. QPF in very dry patterns tends to get cut
down once closer to the event. The LREF shows no more than a 40
percent chance of greater than a tenth of an inch Thursday into
Friday. And that's only for the northern Plateau into SW VA. The
next best chance of widespread rain for the entire forecast area
doesn't appear to be until just outside the forecast range, perhaps
early next week.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 04-12 89(1887) 87(1930) 84(1945) 87(1948)
04-13 88(1887) 89(1887) 86(1981) 86(2017)
04-14 87(2010) 86(1887) 85(1938) 88(2017)
04-15 87(2006) 87(1936) 85(1945) 86(2024)
04-16 89(2002) 87(1896) 87(2002) 88(2002)
04-17 91(1955) 90(1896) 85(2002) 88(1955)
04-18 90(2002) 90(1896) 87(2002) 89(2002)

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 115 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Increasing southerly to southwesterly winds are expected with
limited high clouds. Overnight, LLWS is likely at the sites due
to winds over 30 kts at around 2,000 feet AGL and light winds at
the surface. Breezier winds are expected tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 62 83 60 87 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 82 61 85 / 0 10 0 10
Oak Ridge, TN 60 82 59 85 / 0 10 0 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 79 56 83 / 0 10 0 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

082
FXUS64 KMRX 130654
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
254 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 228 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

- A warming trend with above normal temperatures expected through
this week. Record highs are possible.

- There is very limited chances for light rain through the
forecast period. This will result in worsening drought and fire
weather conditions.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

In general, the upper ridging over Florida and the northern Gulf
will largely maintain control over the weather across East Tennessee
for much of the coming week, keeping any impulses in the upper
levels situated to our northwest and resulting in continued hot and
dry conditions for much of the CWA. It's possible the ridge breaks
down by Thu/Fri, allowing an upper trough and associated surface
front to swing through the Ohio and Tennessee river valleys.
Confidence is low however, especially with regards to how much rain
might fall with any frontal passage.

Monday:
An upper jet streak will traverse the Ohio valley during the
morning hours. This coupled with broad moist return flow from the
lower Mississippi valley up into eastern Kentucky, may be enough
enough for some sparse showers over middle TN and into the northern
plateau and our Virginia counties late Monday morning into the early
afternoon hours. However, I'm not terribly impressed with the rain
chances. Forecast soundings show essentially a dry atmosphere below
10-11k feet at Crossville, Knoxville, and Tri-Cities during the day.
I wouldn't be surprised to see some returns on radar, but it may be
mostly virga with little to no rain reaching the ground. Otherwise,
we will see good mixing again on Monday with gradient flow producing
gusts into the 20-25kt range across much of the TN valley. Will once
again side with NBM 10th percentile dewpoints, with resulting
afternoon RH values dipping into the 25-30 percent range. One caveat
to all of this would be that, depending on how thick and expansive
the mid clouds area, forecast highs could be too high, especially in
the north where the better mid level moisture is. This could also
affect afternoon RH values. Nevertheless, fire weather concerns will
remain elevated accordingly, and will continue the SPS for fire
danger in our Virginia counties. We also remain highlighted by SPC
with respect to fire weather concerns on Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday:

Upper ridge amplifies over the northern Gulf and Florida panhandle
region on Tuesday, with the upper flow becoming increasingly
amplified to our west as a trough digs into the plains. This pattern
continues through Thursday and will keep dry conditions in place
locally as the best moisture return is shunted further northwest.
Afternoon highs will climb Tuesday onward as the high strengthens,
with calendar day record highs within reach Tuesday and Wednesday
for sure. Increasing clouds on Thursday may limit the potential for
record heat that day. Will continue to include the record
temperatures section in the AFD below. Afternoon RH will continue to
run low, but should mostly be in the 30-35 percent range as opposed
to dipping below 30 for Tuesday through Thursday due to persistent
southerly flow.

Thursday onward:

Models show the ridge weakening and a disturbance approaching from
the west by late Thursday. NBM has some 25-35 percent rain chances
mainly over the plateau and northern counties Thursday night into
Friday morning, which seems reasonable for now. Certainly doesn't
look like a slam dunk case for rain. Better chances may exist beyond
the forecast period, during the latter half of next weekend.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 04-13 88(1887) 89(1887) 86(1981) 86(2017)
04-14 87(2010) 86(1887) 85(1938) 88(2017)
04-15 87(2006) 87(1936) 85(1945) 86(2024)
04-16 89(2002) 87(1896) 87(2002) 88(2002)
04-17 91(1955) 90(1896) 85(2002) 88(1955)
04-18 90(2002) 90(1896) 87(2002) 89(2002)

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Strengthening LLJ will lead to a period of LLWS for the AM hours.
S to SW winds will gust between 15 and 25 knots starting around
noon and continue through the early evening hours. Increased
coverage of mid to high level clouds are also expected for the
period, though conditions will remain VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 83 60 87 59 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 81 60 85 60 / 10 0 10 0
Oak Ridge, TN 80 58 85 58 / 10 10 10 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 78 54 83 57 / 20 10 10 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...KRS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

748
FXUS64 KMRX 131723
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
123 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 121 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

- A warming trend with above normal temperatures expected through
this week. Record highs are possible.

- There is very limited chances for light rain through the
forecast period. This will result in worsening drought and fire
weather conditions.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 121 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

A large high pressure ridge will remain over FL/Gulf/western
Atlantic through this forecast period, which will provide above
normal temperatures and generally dry conditions to the Southern
Appalachians and TN Valley.

We are seeing a good amount of cloud cover today from a jet streak
and shortwave trough passing by to our north, but once that passes
to our east tonight, mostly sunny clear will return. High temps
tomorrow will approach records for the date, with the same expected
on Wednesday. Low RH values will be of concern for fire weather
interests, bottoming out in the 25-35% range both days for most
locations, but thankfully the SW winds will be mainly in the 5-15
mph range. With these lighter winds, we do not anticipate the need
for any Fire Danger statements over the next few days.

Models show the ridge drifting southward a bit on Thursday, allowing
a mid/upper level trough and jet streak to cross the region. NBM has
been trending higher with rain chances, which are now in the chance
range north of I-40 Thursday afternoon and evening. Looking at the
NAM forecast soundings Thursday afternoon, there is a strong stable
and dry layer that will have to be overcome for any measureable
precip, leading to skepticism of the NBM PoPs. Don't get your hopes
up for any meaingful rainfall just yet. Highs will be pushing near
records again on Friday and Saturday as the ridge amplifies
northward again. Better rain chances may exist on Sunday as models
show a deeper trough developing over the Plains that could push a
cold front through our area.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge
04-14 87(2010) 86(1887) 85(1938) 88(2017)
04-15 87(2006) 87(1936) 85(1945) 86(2024)
04-16 89(2002) 87(1896) 87(2002) 88(2002)
04-17 91(1955) 90(1896) 85(2002) 88(1955)
04-18 90(2002) 90(1896) 87(2002) 89(2002)
04-19 91(2002) 90(1941) 90(1941) 90(2002)

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 121 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Gusty winds will be the main aviation impact through this
afternoon, reaching around 25 kt. Winds will drop under 10 kt
around 21-23Z, then increase again tomorrow around noon, with
gusts to 20 kt possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 60 87 59 88 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 85 60 87 / 0 10 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 58 85 58 87 / 10 10 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 54 83 57 85 / 10 10 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

936
FXUS64 KMRX 140631
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
231 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 228 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

- Well above normal temperatures expected through this week into
the first half of the weekend. Record highs are possible.

- There are limited chances precipitation through the forecast
period, with little relief from the worsening drought and fire
weather conditions.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

A large ridge of high pressure will remain over the Gulf and SE
CONUS at least into the first half of the weekend, keeping moisture
very limited over our area and temperatures well above normal for
this time of year.

Significant cloud cover Monday helped to hold temperatures down a
bit, but today and Wednesday will bring fewer clouds, more
insolation, and higher temperatures as highs make a run at records
both days. Low RH values will be of concern for fire weather
interests, bottoming out in the 25-35% range both today and
Wednesday for most locations, but for the most part SW winds will
not be higher than the 5-15 mph range.

Models show the ridge being suppressed on Thursday/Thursday night as
a mid/upper level short wave trough crosses the region, although it
will still be very warm. The NBM has been trending higher with rain
chances, which are now in the chance range for all but the far
southern portions of the area in the late Thu/early Thu night time
frame. The NAM is more aggressive as is often the case, but overall model/ensemble data suggests moisture will be limited and the better convective energy will be to our west. Some weakening convection
will likely approach from the west, but it is still questionable how
much will make it into our area. Tempering any expectations for
significant rainfall with this system looks prudent for now.

The ridge will build back Friday behind the short wave. High
temperatures will be at least approaching records both Friday and
Saturday. Better rain chances may arrive for Saturday night into
Sunday as models show a deeper trough developing over the Plains
that could push a cold front through our area as it moves east, but
these details are still in flux so uncertainty is high for how much precipitation we may see. It does look a bit cooler at the end of
the period as highs should be back closer to normal for Sunday and
Monday.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge
04-14 87(2010) 86(1887) 85(1938) 88(2017)
04-15 87(2006) 87(1936) 85(1945) 86(2024)
04-16 89(2002) 87(1896) 87(2002) 88(2002)
04-17 91(1955) 90(1896) 85(2002) 88(1955)
04-18 90(2002) 90(1896) 87(2002) 89(2002)
04-19 91(2002) 90(1941) 90(1941) 90(2002)

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

VFR conditions prevail. Southwesterly winds around 10kts will
return late morning into tomorrow afternoon. Gusts near 20kts possible
at TYS. Mid to high level CIGS through the first 2/3rds of the TAF
cycle. Skies will clear with light winds returning in the evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 59 88 60 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 84 59 86 60 / 10 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 85 57 86 58 / 10 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 55 84 58 / 10 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...KRS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

108
FXUS64 KMRX 141717
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
117 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 115 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

- Well above normal temperatures expected through this week into
the first half of the weekend. Record highs are possible.

- Chance of showers Thursday evening, but light amounts will mean
little relief from the worsening drought and fire weather
conditions.

- Increasing confidence of showers with a cold front passage
Saturday night/Sunday morning, followed by cooler temperatues next
week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Hot and dry conditions continue to be the main weather story for the
area, thanks to a large ridge of high pressure over the Gulf and SE
CONUS.

Today and Wednesday, high temperatures will be close to record highs
with a SW flow, subsidence under the ridge, and limited cloud cover.
Low RH values will be of concern for fire weather interests,
bottoming out in the 25-35% range both today and Wednesday for most
locations, but for the most part SW winds will not be higher than
the 5-15 mph range.

The mid/upper ridge axis gets pushed east on Thrusday as a shortwave
trough approaches from the west. This system brings a chance of
showers Thursday evening, but weak dynaimc forcing and limited
moisture will result in light QPF amounts (< 0.1 on average) and
little impact on the ongoing drought conditions and wildfires. There
is some elevated instability that will support some thunderstorms,
mainly in our Plateau counties.

The ridge will build back Friday behind the exiting shortwave
trough. High temperatures will be approaching records again on
Friday and Saturday. Better rain chances may arrive for Saturday
night into Sunday as models show a deep trough developing over the
Plains that could push a cold front through our area. Model
agreement, run-to-run consistency, and jet-induced dynamic forcing
lead to increasing confidence of rain chances. Behind the front,
cooler temperatures are expected as highs should be closer to
normal, or slightly below, for Sunday and Monday.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge
04-14 87(2010) 86(1887) 85(1938) 88(2017)
04-15 87(2006) 87(1936) 85(1945) 86(2024)
04-16 89(2002) 87(1896) 87(2002) 88(2002)
04-17 91(1955) 90(1896) 85(2002) 88(1955)
04-18 90(2002) 90(1896) 87(2002) 89(2002)


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 115 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Winds through the afternoon will be 10-15 kt with some gusts up to
20 kt, decreasing around 23-00Z. Southwest winds tomorrow will be
lighter, mainly 5-10 kt.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 59 88 60 87 / 0 0 0 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 86 60 85 / 0 0 0 10
Oak Ridge, TN 57 86 58 85 / 0 0 0 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 84 58 84 / 0 0 0 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

761
FXUS64 KMRX 151059
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
659 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 656 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

- Well above normal temperatures expected through this week into
the first half of the weekend. Record highs are possible.

- Chance of showers Thursday evening, but precipitation amounts
will generally be light providing little relief from the
worsening drought and fire weather conditions

- A better chance of showers Saturday night/Sunday morning,
followed by cooler temperatures early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Unseasonably hot and dry conditions continue to be the main weather
story for the area, thanks to a persistent large ridge of high
pressure over the Gulf and SE CONUS.

For Wednesday, high temperatures will be close to record highs with
a SW flow, subsidence under the ridge, and limited cloud cover. Low
RH values will be of concern for fire weather interests, bottoming
out in the 25-35% range Wednesday for most locations, but for the
most part SW winds will not be higher than the 5-15 mph range.

The mid/upper ridge will briefly be interrupted by a shortwave
trough approaching from the west late Thursday that will move across
our area Thursday night. The late arrival of increased cloud cover
and precip chances Thursday will allow for another very warm day
with high temperatures not far off the records. RH values will again
bottom out in the 25 to 35% range during the afternoon and winds
will be slightly stronger. As the short wave moves in it will bring
a chance of showers late Thursday into Thursday night, but weak
forcing and limited moisture will generally result in light rainfall
amounts, and little overall impact on the ongoing drought conditions
and wildfires (ensemble data has chances for 24 hour precipitation
amounts exceeding a quarter inch ranging from around 10% to 30%,
with the higher values across our northwest counties). Models show
some limited instability that may support a few thunderstorms, with
the highest chance for thunder being across our Plateau counties.

The ridge will build back Friday behind the departing shortwave
trough. High temperatures will be approaching records again on
Friday and Saturday. Better rain chances may arrive for Saturday
night into Sunday as models show a deep trough developing over the
Plains that will drag a cold front through our area as the trough
moves east. Models are in decent agreement on this scenario,
although differ more in the details that will be important in
determining how much precipitation we will see. Ensemble data
currently shows around a 50% chance of seeing over a quarter inch of
rain and closer to a 20% chance of seeing more than a half inch (24
hour period). What is more certain than the precip amounts is that
we will see cooler temperatures moving in with high temperatures
near or even a bit below normal both Sunday and Monday. Temperatures
will begin to trend warmer again Tuesday.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge
04-15 87(2006) 87(1936) 85(1945) 86(2024)
04-16 89(2002) 87(1896) 87(2002) 88(2002)
04-17 91(1955) 90(1896) 85(2002) 88(1955)
04-18 90(2002) 90(1896) 87(2002) 89(2002)
04-19 91(2002) 90(1941) 90(1941) 90(2002)

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 656 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

VFR conditions continue among a diurnal wind pattern persistent
with previous days. Breezy southwest winds in the afternoon.
becoming light overnight. Amplified low-level flow may result in
a period of LLWS tomorrow night as well. But confidence too low to
include this far out.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 61 87 62 / 0 0 20 20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 85 61 85 61 / 0 0 20 40
Oak Ridge, TN 86 59 85 60 / 0 0 30 40
Tri Cities Airport, TN 83 57 83 59 / 0 0 10 40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...KRS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

510
FXUS64 KMRX 151716
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
116 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 114 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

- Well above normal temperatures continue through Saturday. Record
highs are possible.

- Chance of showers Thursday evening, but precipitation amounts will
generally be light, providing little relief from the worsening
drought and fire weather conditions.

- A cold front brings a chance of showers Saturday night/Sunday
morning, followed by cooler temperatures early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 114 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Hot and dry conditions continue for the next 24 hours, thanks to a
persistent large ridge of high pressure centered over FL today.
Thursday will be similar to today, with highs in the 80s under
mostly sunny skies. Afternoon RH values will drop to between 25-35%,
with SW winds in the 10-15 mph range. This will be borderline for a
Fire Danger Statement, and will reevlaute the need for that tomorrow
morning after coordination with forestry.

The ridge axis will shift eastward Thursday afternoon as a shortwave
trough approaches from the west and cross our area Thursday night.
Showers should be showing a decreasing trend as they move across
Middle TN Thursday afternoon, but what remains of them will enter
our area late Thursday afternoon, likely between 4 and 6 PM EDT.
Weak forcing and limited moisture will generally result in scattered
coverage and light rainfall amounts (mainly a tenth to a quater inch
in the Plateau/SW VA/NE TN). Models show some elevated instability
(~800-900 MUCAPE in the NAM) that may support a few thunderstorms,
with the highest chance for thunder being across our Plateau
counties. Shear is too weak to support any severe threat.

The ridge will build back Friday behind the departing shortwave
trough. High temperatures will be approaching records again on
Friday and Saturday. Better rain chances may arrive for Saturday
night into Sunday as models show a deep trough developing over the
Plains that will drag a cold front through our area. Models are in
decent agreement on this scenario, although differ more in the
details that will be important in determining how much precipitation
we will see. Ensemble data currently shows around a 50% chance of
seeing over a quarter inch of rain and closer to a 20% chance of
seeing more than a half inch (24 hour period). A severe threat looks
unlikely at this time given the generally weak dynamics and limited moisture/instability ahead of the system on Saturday. Cooler
temperatures move in on Sunday, with highs near or even a bit below
normal both Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will begin to trend
warmer again Tuesday.


Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge
04-15 87(2006) 87(1936) 85(1945) 86(2024)
04-16 89(2002) 87(1896) 87(2002) 88(2002)
04-17 91(1955) 90(1896) 85(2002) 88(1955)
04-18 90(2002) 90(1896) 87(2002) 89(2002)
04-19 91(2002) 90(1941) 90(1941) 90(2002)

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 114 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Winds will be generally 8-12 kt with gusts up to 20 kt at TYS
through the afternoon, dropping off around sunset. LLWS will be
mentioned in the TAFs as surface winds decouple from winds aloft,
which will be around 25 kt. With daytime mixing, gusty winds will
develop again late in this TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 61 87 62 90 / 0 20 20 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 85 61 86 / 0 20 40 10
Oak Ridge, TN 59 85 60 87 / 0 30 40 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 83 59 82 / 0 10 40 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

329
FXUS64 KMRX 160636
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
236 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 234 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

- Well above normal temperatures continue through Saturday.
Record highs are possible.

- Chance of showers late today into tonight but precipitation
amounts will generally be light, providing little relief from
the worsening drought and fire weather conditions.

- A cold front will bring a chance of showers/storms Saturday
and Saturday night, followed by cooler temperatures early next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

The persistent large ridge of high pressure centered over the
southeastern CONUS will sponsor hot and dry conditions through much
of the day today. High temperatures will once again be in the 80s
and will not be far off of record highs. Afternoon RH values will be
low but not quite as low as recent days, dropping into the 30s
across much of the area. However, winds will be a bit stronger with
SW winds generally in the 10-15 mph range with higher gusts. It
still looks borderline for any fire danger statement, but if one is
deemed to be needed it will be issued during the morning hours when coordination with the forestry folks can occur.

The mid/upper ridge will briefly be interrupted by a shortwave
trough approaching from the west late today that will move across
our area during the night. We will see showers approaching from the
west later today and these may move into at least western areas
later in the afternoon with showers moving across the remainder of
the area overnight. Weak forcing and limited moisture will
generally result in scattered coverage and light rainfall amounts,
providing little relief from the ongoing drought conditions and
wildfires. Right now, QPF values generally range from just a few
hundredths of an inch to a quarter of an inch. Models show some
limited instability (HREF mean MUCAPE values are generally around or
less than 500 J/kg) that may support a few thunderstorms, with the
highest chance for thunder being across our Plateau counties. Shear
looks too weak to suggest a severe threat.

The ridge will build back Friday behind the departing shortwave
trough. High temperatures will be approaching records again on
Friday and Saturday. Better rain chances will arrive by Saturday
night as models show a deep trough developing over the Plains that
will drag a cold front through our area. Models are in decent
agreement on this scenario, although differ a bit more in the
details that will be important in determining how much precipitation
we will see. Ensemble data currently shows around a 20% (south) to
50% (north/west) chance of seeing over a half inch of rain in a 24
hour period. A significant severe threat looks unlikely at this time
given the generally weak dynamics and limited moisture/instability
ahead of the system on Saturday. Cooler temperatures move in on
Sunday behind the front, with highs near or even a bit below normal
both Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will begin to trend warmer
again Tuesday and Wednesday.


Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge
04-16 89(2002) 87(1896) 87(2002) 88(2002)
04-17 91(1955) 90(1896) 85(2002) 88(1955)
04-18 90(2002) 90(1896) 87(2002) 89(2002)

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 146 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

KMRX VAD Wind Profile shows winds near 2kft approaching 30kts once
again this morning. Have included a period of LLWS for TYS and
TRI. KHTX data is slightly less so LLWS has been left out of KCHA
at this time. Another round of breezy southwest winds this
afternoon, though, this afternoon will favor gusts at all three
sites. Late tomorrow afternoon & evening some scattered showers
will move across the area, especially the north. Have included
some VCSH at TYS/TRI, with a prob30 including some TSRA at TRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 85 61 89 61 / 20 20 10 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 84 60 85 59 / 30 50 10 0
Oak Ridge, TN 84 58 85 58 / 40 60 10 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 58 81 54 / 10 60 10 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...KRS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

394
FXUS64 KMRX 161835
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
235 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 228 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

- Well above normal temperatures continue through Saturday.
Record highs are possible.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing late this
afternoon into this evening. Another round of isolated to
widely scattered showers and storms possible early Friday
morning. Isolated storms could produce strong and gusty winds
and small hail.

- A cold front will bring widespread showers and possibly a
thunderstorm late Saturday and especially Saturday night.

- Cooler temperatures Sunday and Monday, but warming up again
next week. Low afternoon relative humidity early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

SPC meso analysis shows a well mixed boundary layer this afternoon
producing breezy conditions. Instability is increasing especially
over the Plateau with MLCAPEs of 500-100. DCAPEs of 800-900 with dry
mid-level and sub-cloud layers will likely produce strong and gusty
winds with the storms. There is a marginal risk of severe storms.

A weak wave over west TN/AR/MO will approach the region by early
Friday morning. Currently strong convection has developed with this
feature. Some of the CAM models show isolate to widely scattered
storms moving into the area late tonight. Due to the colder air
aloft with the upper trough, mid-level lapse rates steepen. There is
a low end confidence of isolated storms producing hail up to one-
half inch. Greatest potential north of interstate 40.

After this wave moves east early Friday, a return to dry and
unseasonably warm conditions tomorrow with low afternoon relative
humidity.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge
04-17 91(1955) 90(1896) 85(2002) 88(1955)
04-18 90(2002) 90(1896) 87(2002) 89(2002)

For Saturday (especially late) into Saturday night, a strong upper
trough will dig into the Great Lakes into the Tennessee valley. The
jet dynamics with this system will enhance the fronto-genetic
forcing along this incoming cold front producing widespread showers
and possible a thunderstorm. Instability ahead of this system is
quite limited over the Tennessee valley. Ensemble analysis shows QPF
of 0.25 to 0.40 inch with this system. Much needed rainfall but
still will not too much for our ongoing drought conditions.

For much of next week, dry conditions return with a dry surface
ridge producing low afternoon humidities into the 20s and 30s.
Cooler temperatures for early week but quickly moderate to above
normal temperatures by mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 110 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Main concerns through the forecast is the expected scattered
showers and thunderstorms developing late today through the night
especially across TRI and TYS. First round of scattered convection
will develop near the Plateau counties and move east into east
Tennessee. This is in response to low-level convergence into that
region and approaching upper trough. Instability is limited with
CAPES of 500-1000 but due to dry air aloft and below cloud base,
strong and gusty winds are anticipated.

As the upper trough approaches overnight, another round of
isolated showers and storms are possible mainly for TRI and TYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 61 89 63 88 / 20 0 0 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 85 60 86 / 50 0 0 30
Oak Ridge, TN 58 85 59 86 / 50 0 0 30
Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 81 55 84 / 50 0 0 30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DH


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

847
FXUS64 KMRX 170700
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
300 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 256 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

- Well above normal temperatures continue through Saturday.
Record highs are possible.

- A cold front will bring widespread showers and possibly a
thunderstorm late Saturday and especially Saturday night.

- Cooler temperatures Sunday and Monday, but warming up again next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Not too many changes this morning. Hot weather again today and
Saturday, with the expected cold front likely to sweep through early
Sunday morning. Ahead of the front will be another batch of rain
showers, with possibly a thunderstorm or two, which will bring
another round of much needed rainfall to the region, though
certainly not a drought buster. A few showers may start encroaching
on the area Saturday afternoon, but the more likely bulk of the rain
will fall overnight into early Sunday morning. CAPE profiles from
longer range CAM models don't look overly promising for storm
development at this time. Depending on how much rainfall any one
location got from the first round of rain a few hours ago, the
totals for the week will be close to average or still below average
for a week of April. Unfortunately, more substantive relief from the
drought will remain on hold.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge
04-17 91(1955) 90(1896) 85(2002) 88(1955)
04-18 90(2002) 90(1896) 87(2002) 89(2002)

Following the front, another disgustingly dry airmass will deposit
down onto the region, and with the H85 southeastern ridge being
fairly stagnant, we can expect daily low relative humidity minimums
for much of the following work week. Rain chances don't seem likely
to start creeping in until the end of the work week, with no
interesting disturbances in either model suite. Temperatures behind
the front will take a healthy nose dive, with potential for isolated
frost across northern locations Monday and Tuesday mornings. This is
provided there's enough surface moisture to allow for frost
formation. Temperatures will steadily rebound thanks again to
influence by the H85 ridge, and by late week next week we'll be back
in the 80s across much of the Tennessee Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 134 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Calm conditions expected, with possible light showers to move
over CHA in the next 2 hours or so. TYS up to TRI saw the most
measurable rainfall yesterday evening, so fog development could be
possible. Low confidence on occurrence, but a TEMPO was added to
account for the chance. Clearing conditions expected later today
with ridging and SFC high pressure building back in.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 64 88 49 / 0 0 20 80
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 61 86 48 / 0 0 20 80
Oak Ridge, TN 87 60 86 47 / 0 0 30 90
Tri Cities Airport, TN 83 56 84 46 / 0 0 30 80

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...KS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

334
FXUS64 KMRX 171827
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
227 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 225 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

- Well above normal temperatures continue into Saturday.

- A cold front will bring widespread showers and some
thunderstorms late Saturday and especially Saturday night.

- Cooler temperatures Sunday and Monday, but warming up again
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Conditions are once again warm and dry across the region this
afternoon. Blended in some NBM10 to the dewpoints for this afternoon
and evening to lower RH values as has been done in recent days. Dry
conditions continue overnight and into the midday or early afternoon
hours tomorrow before rain chances increase tomorrow night due to an
an approaching cold front from the west.

Frontal passage looks to fall between 8pm and maybe 11pm tomorrow
evening. Most precipitation will fall in close proximity to the
front but some guidance indicates some possibility of convection
developing out ahead of the front. Model soundings aren't too
impressive with respect to severe chances. However, there is
supporting evidence of a very low end damaging wind threat. Model
soundings show several hundred Joules of downdraft CAPE in the late
afternoon and early evening hours just ahead of the front. Using
HREF ensemble max wind gusts as a proxy for convective wind gust
potential, it shows some areas exceeding 40-45 mph tomorrow evening
as well, mainly in the south where it will be warmer and more deeply
mixed. I wouldn't be surprised if we have a few reports of some
downed trees. I also wouldn't be surprised if there are no strong
storms whatsoever and it's just a breezy, convective frontal passage
given the marginal environment.

Otherwise, behind the front temperatures cool significantly and
another very dry air mass will move in. Freezing levels do fall
quickly behind the front, but it appears precip will wrap up before
they're low enough to mention any sort of chance of snow showers in
the higher terrain. We'll be much cooler Sunday through Monday
night. Could see some potential frost in the north on Sunday and
Monday nights if it's not too dry. After the cooldown, temperatures
steadily rebound through next week with dry conditions expected to
continue as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

VFR flight categories are expected through the end of the 18z TAF
period. Low level winds will begin to increase towards the tail
end of the period, such that some gusts of 15-20kt could occur at
KTYS, but would expect that after 16z so no plan to include that
now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 87 49 68 / 0 20 90 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 85 47 64 / 0 30 90 20
Oak Ridge, TN 59 85 46 65 / 0 40 100 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 84 45 61 / 0 30 90 30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...CD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

397
FXUS64 KMRX 180655
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
255 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 254 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

- Showers and storms will move into the area through this evening with
some strong to marginally severe storms possible. Damaging
winds and hail are the main concerns, especially along and north
of Interstate 40.

- Drier and much cooler conditions are expected Sunday into Monday
with low RH's in the 20s and lower 30s returning.

- Dry conditions will continue through the week, along with a
gradual warming trend. Low RH's continue to be of concern.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Currently, a trough/upper jet is centered to our northwest with a
surface low moving into Ontario, Canada. This setup has produced a
broad warm sector and large-scale severe weather event with a cold
front extending along and west of the Mississippi River. This cold
front will approach the area throughout the day today with
increasing southerly flow out ahead. Showers and storms, some
discrete, are expected during the evening hours ahead of this front.
The focus for strong to marginally severe storms continues to be in
the northern half of the region where MLCAPE of near 1,000 J/kg is
suggested due to better height falls. While stronger flow is
expected aloft, 850mb winds will remain generally 30 kts or less
with limited low-level shear. CAPE within the -10 to -30 Celsius
region is indicated to be near 400 J/kg with WBZ heights around
10,000 feet. This continues to suggest low-end threats for damaging
winds and hail, as shown in the outlook. The cold front will move
through the area after midnight, leading to decreasing rain coverage.

Throughout the day on Sunday, the cold front will have pushed well
off to the east with high pressure expanding from the southwest.
This will lead to cooler and drier conditions with high temperatures
remaining in the 60s for most. Low RH's in the 20s will come back
into view, along with northwesterly winds. Sunday night will be
notably cooler following recent subsidence with some places dropping
into the 30s. By Monday, high pressure will be centered nearby,
leading to a weaker MSLP gradient/winds but continued dry
conditions. Even cooler low temperatures can be expected Monday
night, potentially cold enough for frost in some areas. By Tuesday,
recent troughing and surface high pressure will shift off to the
east, producing a shift to southerly flow and height rises. This
will begin another warming trend with highs rising back above
normal. Ridging will lead to further height rises through the end of
the week with most places rising back into the 80s. Low RH's will
continue to be of concern with generally southerly to southwesterly
flow. With a fairly weak MSLP gradient and 850mb flow, wind gusts
will be generally 15 to 20 mph or less for most areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 151 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

VFR and dry can generally be expected for the first three quarters
of the TAF period. SW winds will increase out ahead of a frontal
passage later this morning and afternoon. Gusts up to 25KT
possible at TYS.

Wx and wind direction change expected around the last 6 hours of
the TAF. Wind direction to eventually turn out of the NW. Showers
with the front will approach and cross the area this evening and
part of the overnight hours. Low chances for TS, so do not have
anything mentioned, although it's a non zero chance. Degradation
to MVFR CIG and VSBY possible with the front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 88 48 69 43 / 20 90 10 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 85 47 64 43 / 20 90 10 0
Oak Ridge, TN 85 45 66 42 / 40 90 10 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 45 61 39 / 20 90 20 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...KS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

476
FXUS64 KMRX 181846
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
246 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 243 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

- Showers and storms expected this evening primary threat will be
damaging winds and small hail, especially along and north of
Interstate 40.

- Drier and much cooler conditions are expected Sunday into Monday
with low RH's in the 20s and lower 30s returning.

- Dry conditions will continue through the week, along with a
gradual warming trend. Low RH's continue to be of concern.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

A cold front is approaching the area today with increasing
southerly flow out ahead. Showers and storms, some discrete, are
ongoing ahead of this front. However... the focus for strong to
marginally severe storms continues to be in the northern half of
the region where CAPE up to 1,000 J/kg is possible. While
stronger flow is expected in the mid levels, the 850mb winds will
remain generally light to moderate with limited low-level shear.
CAPE hail growth zone is could grow to 400 J/kg. So there remains
a low end threat for damaging winds and hail during the evening
hours. The cold front will move through the area after midnight,
leading to decreasing rain coverage.

Tomorrow the cold front will moved well to the east with high
pressure expanding from the southwest. This will lead to cooler
and drier conditions with high temperatures remaining in the 60s
for most. Low relative humidities in the 20s will return, along
with northwesterly winds. Tomorrow night will be cooler following
the front with some places dropping into the 30s. Next week, high
pressure will be centered overhead, leading to a lighter winds,
but dry conditions will continue. Cold low temperatures can be
expected again Monday night, potentially cold enough for frost in
some areas. By Tuesday, high pressure will shift off to the east,
turning winds more to southerly. This will begin another warming
trend with highs rising back above normal. Ridging will lead to
further strengthening pressure through the end of the week with
most places rising back into the 80s. Unfortunately low relative
humidities will continue next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 243 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

ISOLD SHRA will move into the TN valley in the next 2-4 hours, with
VCSH possible at all terminals for a few hours thereafter.
Increasing coverage in SHRA and embedded TSRA expected later
tonight. FROPA should occur around or shortly after 08z tonight,
with low-end VFR or possibly some MVFR CIGS lingering until daybreak
or thereabouts. Post-frontal winds should be fairly gusty tomorrow
so have gusts of 20-22kt at all sites to account for that.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 48 68 44 75 / 90 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 46 64 43 68 / 100 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 46 65 41 69 / 100 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 44 61 38 62 / 100 10 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...CD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

188
FXUS64 KMRX 190703
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
303 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 301 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

- Drier and cooler conditions are expected today into early next
week.

- A warming trend will continue through much of the week with rain
chances returning Friday into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Currently, a trough is approaching from the west with a cold front
moving through the region. With this cold front, showers and
embedded storms are gradually exiting to our east with high pressure
expanding from the southwest. This will increase northerly to
northwesterly winds with cooler temperatures this morning and into
the day. Significantly drier conditions are expected through the day
with RH values dropping well into the 20s area-wide. Tonight, high
pressure will become set up almost directly over the region, leading
to stronger subsidence, lighter winds, and cooler temperatures. Some
places in the northeast will drop into the 30s with patchy frost
possible. A similar pattern will continue on Monday, keeping
seasonally cool and dry conditions in place. Stronger subsidence
will allow for a further drop in temperatures Monday night with
frost more likely, especially in northeast Tennessee and southwest
Virginia. By Tuesday, a warming trend will continue with height
rises as ridging approaches from the west. Notably dry conditions
will remain in place.

Wednesday and Thursday, ridging will move into the region from the
west with high pressure keeping the region dry. Another trough will
approach from the west late in the week and into the weekend. There
is still uncertainty as to how this will evolve, but rain chances
will return at a minimum.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 137 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Cold front moving through the area very early this morning. RA has
just started at TRI as precip moves north and east. Light to mod
rain with MVFR CIG and VSBY will continue the next 3 to 4 hours
or so. No threat for TS. Conditions forecast to improve and dry
out close to sunrise. N to NW winds following the frontal passage
may be gusty at times today at all terminals. High pressure will
move in later today, promoting clearing skies and calm winds
tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 44 75 46 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 43 68 42 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 65 41 69 41 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 38 62 35 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...KS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

402
FXUS64 KMRX 191825
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
225 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 225 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

- Drier and cooler conditions are expected today into early next
week.

- A warming trend will continue through much of the week with rain
chances returning Friday into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

The sunny skies have returned after the overnight rain. Most
locations in the valley saw around 0.5 inches of rain with some
places getting a bit more, and others getting a bit less. Not enough
to bust the drought, but hopefully will help even just a little with
fuel moisture. Winds out of the north to northwest behind the front
have helped keep temperatures down, running 20+ degrees cooler
compared to pre-frontal conditions yesterday. This cooler
temperature trend will continue overnight with places in northeast
TN, southwest VA, and elevations above 2,000 feet looking to dip
below 40 degrees. Cannot completely rule out frost, especially in
southwest VA with the coldest temperatures expected in that area.
Tomorrow will see a slight uptick in temperatures, but then we drop
again Tuesday morning with some parts of southwest VA and the
Appalachians looking to hit the freezing mark for a few hours
overnight. The Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings at WFO MRX do
not officially begin until May 1 based on climatology, but with how
warm we've been recently anyone with outdoor plants they planted
early due to the warm weather should take note for the cold temps.

Other than the cold morning temperatures coming up there is little
weather of note for the region as the generally dry trend continues
for much of the work week. A warming trend can be expected with each
day a bit warmer than the last, culminating in our hottest day of
the forecast looking to occur on Friday.

Over the weekend we'll have a couple of weaker disturbances move
through the Tennessee Valley which could bring additional rounds of
rain. As of this writing the synoptics look fairly mild and QPF
amounts look limited for the weekend. Of higher confidence is that
it will put a damper on the temperatures, dropping most places back
into the 70's with the increased cloud coverage.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 124 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

High clouds are slow to move out this afternoon. Northwesterly
winds will remain slightly gusty, up to 20 knots, through early
evening. Clearing skies this evening. Winds will be lighter
tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 44 75 47 80 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 42 69 43 76 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 41 70 42 77 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 37 61 35 71 / 0 10 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...McD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

297
FXUS64 KMRX 200659
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
259 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 257 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

- Slightly elevated fire weather conditions today.

- Patchy frost possible northeast TN and southwest VA tonight into
Tuesday morning.

- Dry conditions and a warming trend through the week. Increasing
chances of rain and storms Friday night and into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

We begin the period with the backside of an upper-level trough still
in place across the area. Northwest flow continues and will allow a
dry airmass to persist across the region. As we further dry out from
Saturday night's rainfall, combined with the low RH and breezy winds
today, slightly elevated fire weather conditions will be in place.
The risk will be a little higher across Cherokee and Clay County NC,
and portions of northeast TN and southwest VA. These areas received
lesser rainfall compared to the rest of our area. It doesn't quite
look like Red Flag warning criteria will be met today but an
enhanced fire danger statement will likely be needed for potions of
the area. The day shift will coordinate with forestry partners later
this morning to determine issuance.


Otherwise, dry conditions and a warming trend continue through the
week as high pressure builds in across our area. A weak cold front
approaches on Wednesday and may bring a few light showers into
southwest VA, but chances are very low. By the end of the week,
models are showing a deepening trough across the western U.S. This
will break down of ridge of high pressure and put our region within
zonal flow. This zonal flow pattern will open the door for a series
of systems from Friday night and into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Calm and clear under high pressure the rest of the night. W-NWly
winds will develop later today with possible gusts up to 20KT. Mid
to high clouds during the day, followed by a return to calm and
clear later tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 75 47 81 53 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 42 76 52 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 70 42 77 50 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 34 72 47 / 10 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Fire Weather Watch from noon EDT today through this evening for
Cherokee-Clay.

TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...KS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

402
FXUS64 KMRX 201727
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
127 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 118 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

- Elevated fire danger continues through early this evening mainly
in Southwest North Carolina where fuels are still dry and winds are
slightly stronger.

- Patchy frost possible northeast TN and southwest VA tonight into
Tuesday morning.

- Dry conditions and a warming trend through the week. Increasing
chances of rain and storms Friday night and into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 118 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

In the upper levels, a deep trough is over the Eastern U.S. At the
surface, high pressure is currently centered over the Great Lakes.
With good mixing expected this afternoon due to clearing clouds,
relative humidity is expected to drop into the 25 to 35 percent
range for most of the region. Elevated fire danger this afternoon
and evening will be mainly in Southwest North Carolina and maybe the
East Tennessee mountains where fuels are still dry and winds are
slightly stronger.

Dry weather will continue through Friday. One possible exception is
a very low chance for a light shower in Southwest Virginia on
Wednesday afternoon as a system moves to our north. Patchy frost is
possible in Northeast Tennessee and Southwest Virginia late tonight
into Tuesday morning with clear, calm conditions expected with
cooler temperatures.

Otherwise, warm and sunny until the next system approaches the
region on Friday with the best chance of rain Friday night into
Saturday. A weak ridge will be over the Southeast this weekend. A
series of weak impulses moving through the pattern could bring
showers and storms off and on into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 118 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Westerly winds will continue to gust around 20 knots at times this
afternoon. Some clouds are lingering mainly near TRI. Clouds will
clear out overnight into tomorrow. Winds will be lighter tomorrow
and more southwesterly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 47 81 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 42 76 52 79 / 0 0 0 10
Oak Ridge, TN 42 77 50 81 / 0 0 0 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 34 72 47 76 / 0 0 0 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...McD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

379
FXUS64 KMRX 210648
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
248 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 233 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

- After a cool morning, a gradual warming trend is expected with dry
conditions through much of the week.

- Showers and possibly a few storms are increasingly likely this
weekend with Saturday having the best chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Currently, mid/upper troughing has pushed off into the Atlantic with
surface high pressure to the northeast. This has led to another dry
and seasonally cool morning with patchy frost in northeast Tennessee
and southwest Virginia. Throughout the day, troughing will lift
further east, leading to height rises and warmer temperatures than
yesterday. Low RH's are expected again, but southerly flow will
slightly increase moisture. On Wednesday, a very weak shortwave will
pass to our northeast, bringing low-end rain chances close to
southwest Virginia. However, our area is expected to remain dry with
similarly mild temperatures.

By Thursday, a trough and deepening surface low will eject out of
the Rockies leading to increasing ridging and southerly flow in the
eastern U.S. Our area will remain dry during this time with most
places rising into the 80s. The ridge becomes more suppressed on
Friday, but continued southerly flow will lead to temperatures
further into the 80s. On Saturday, a shortwave is expected to move
into the region from the northwest with moisture having increased
further. Showers and possibly some storms are increasingly likely
across the area. Overall, winds aloft remain fairly light, but
instability could maybe support some stronger storms as indicated by
the CIPS Analogs. Hopefully, this provides some needed rainfall as
the southern half of the area is anywhere from 4 to 8 inches below
normal for the year so far. By Sunday, models differ on how much
moisture will remain in the region, so rain chances are lessened.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 151 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

VFR and dry through the forecast period with light winds
developing out of the SW later today. Clear skies at this time may
lead to mid to high clouds during the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 81 54 83 55 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 77 52 80 53 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 77 50 81 53 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 72 47 77 49 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...KS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

845
FXUS64 KMRX 211831
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
231 PM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 230 PM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

- Unseasonably warm and dry conditions will continue through
Friday. Highs will be around 10 degrees above normal. Low
afternoon relative humidity each day with 20s and 30s expected.

- Increasing moisture and instability this weekend with likely
chances of showers and possibly storms, especially Saturday.

- Another round of storms anticipated for Monday and Tuesday. There
is a threat for strong to severe storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

For Tonight and Wednesday, a short-wave will move across the upper
Ohio valley into the central Appalachians. This wave will produce an
area of showers and thunderstorms that will approach southwest
Virginia toward Wednesday morning. At this time, the dynamics and
moisture will stay north of the region with surface ridging, so dry
conditions are anticipated. Low afternoon relative humidity will
with values in the 20s.

For Thursday and Friday, upper ridge builds over the area producing
mostly dry and unseasonably warm conditions. Highs will be around 10
degrees above normal. Low afternoon relative humidity will continue
with values in the 20s/30s.

For Friday night through Saturday, a northern stream (Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley) and southern stream waves (central Gulf coast
states) produce an area of showers and possibly a thunderstorm.
Since limited phasing is expected with these waves, and instability
and dynamics are limited, confidence is low on QPF amounts.
Currently expecting from 0.25 to 0.50 inch but ensemble
probabilities suggest lesser amounts.

Another system moves into the Tennessee valley and southern
Appalachians early next week. The short-wave and jet dynamics will
this wave is stronger and taps into Gulf moisture. Joint ensemble
probability of CAPE/SHEAR suggest a great threat of strong to severe
storms possible. Will need to watch the evolution of this system
close as we move into the weekend for possible messaging of severe
storms. CIPS Analog also suggest the potential of severe storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours at all TAF
sites. Increasing low level jet overnight with 850mb winds of
30-35 knots will produce a chance of LLWS at TRI but confidence is
not high enough to include. Westerly winds will increase at TRI
tomorrow morning to 12-14 knots and gusty.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 53 83 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 51 81 54 82 / 0 0 0 10
Oak Ridge, TN 50 82 52 83 / 0 0 0 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 44 78 49 79 / 0 0 0 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DH


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

467
FXUS64 KMRX 220652
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
252 AM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 247 AM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

- Unseasonably warm and dry conditions will continue through
Friday. Low afternoon relative humidity each day with values in
the 20s and 30s expected.

- Increasing moisture and instability this weekend with likely
chances of showers and possibly storms, especially Saturday.

- Another round of storms anticipated early next week, with
potential for some strong to severe storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 AM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

An mid/upper level short-wave will move across the upper Ohio valley
into the central Appalachians later tonight into Wednesday. This
wave will produce an area of convection that may approach southwest
Virginia Wednesday. However, at this time, the dynamics and moisture
look likely to stay to our north with surface ridging holding over
our area, so dry conditions are anticipated to persist. Fire weather
concerns will continue to be elevated with low afternoon relative
humidity values in the 20s common across the area, and afternoon
winds will generally be in the 5 to 15 mph range with the higher
values across the north along with some higher gusts.

For Thursday and Friday, an upper ridge will build over the area
producing mostly dry and unseasonably warm conditions. High
temperatures will be around 10 degrees above normal both days. Low
afternoon relative humidity values will continue with values mainly
in the 20s and 30s.

For Friday night through Saturday, a northern stream short wave over
the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region and a southern stream wave moving
across the Gulf coast states will flatten out the upper ridge, but
models generally indicate limited phasing with these waves and
instability and dynamics look limited for our area. Some showers
and possibly thunderstorms can be expected Friday night into
Saturday, but confidence is low on QPF amounts. Current QPF shows
around a quarter to three quarters of an inch of rainfall, but
ensemble data suggests it may be less.

Another wave will move into the Tennessee valley and southern
Appalachians early next week, bringing another chance for showers
and thunderstorms sometime in the Monday/Tuesday time frame. Models
indicate the dynamics are likely to be stronger with this system,
and it may tap into Gulf moisture as well. Ensemble joint
probabilities of CAPE and Shear currently suggest a greater threat
of strong to severe storms with this system. Models still do not
agree on details such as timing, but this will bear watching as we
get closer and the details become clearer.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 147 AM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

The area will be situated under high pressure to the SE and a
disturbance moving overhead to our north. A pressure gradient will
create westerly winds and gusts, primarily the strongest at TRI
later this afternoon. Prior to, a LLJ may create LLWS conditions
at TRI the next few hours. Otherwise, dry weather, VFR, and either
SKC or high clouds expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 84 55 85 56 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 81 53 83 56 / 0 0 10 0
Oak Ridge, TN 82 52 83 53 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 78 46 80 52 / 0 0 10 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...KS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

543
FXUS64 KMRX 221901
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
301 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 252 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

- Unseasonably warm and dry conditions will continue through
Friday. Low afternoon relative humidity each day with values in
the 20s and 30s expected.

- Increasing chances of showers and possibly storms late Friday
night into Saturday.

- Another round of storms anticipated early next week, with
potential for some strong to severe storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

A mid/upr level shortwave is currently progressing into the central Appalachians this afternoon. Associated precipitation will remain
just to our north and east, with just an increase in mid-level
clouds occurring across southwest Virginia. Main impact is the FDS
that goes through the afternoon due to expected breezy conditions
and low afternoon RH. The best alignment of strongest gusts and
lowest RH are expected in far NE TN and SW VA.

An upper ridge and sfc high pressure takes greater control tomorrow.
While low afternoon humidity is expected once more, winds will be
light. Plenty of sunshine will accompany well above normal
temperatures. A slight improvement in RH is expected Friday as
southwesterly winds increase moisture advection ahead of a northern
stream trough spreading into the western Great Lakes and a southern
stream wave translating across the Gulf.

An associated cold front will increase the chance for showers and
and storms as we head into Saturday. Latest NAM solution depicts a
diminishing LLJ as convection spreads into our region, which will
help limit availability instability as well as low-level shear. GFS probabilities of CAPE greater 500 J/kg range from 40-70%, but when
looking at probabilities of greater than 1000J/kg probabilities
sharply fall to 30% or lower. The most likely solution for Saturday
seems to be general showers and thunderstorms, but we will continue
to monitor as hi-res models become available.

A more amplified system is expected to bring another round of
showers and storms late Monday night into Tuesday. Long range
guidance suggest the more dynamic system will have better potential
for LLJ to tap into Gulf moisture while persisting in strength as it
swing through the Tennessee Valley. This leads to greater joint
probabilities of CAPE > 500 J/kg and bulk shear > 30kts relative to
the weekend system. Though the best severe chances still look to be
to our south and west, this system will bear watching.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 121 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

VFR conditions persist. Wind gusts around 15kts, up to 25kts at
TRI, will continue for a few more hours this afternoon. Winds will
calm in diurnal fashion this evening but increasing high pressure
influence will keep winds light tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 54 84 57 85 / 0 0 0 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 53 82 56 83 / 0 0 0 10
Oak Ridge, TN 51 82 55 83 / 0 0 0 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 47 79 52 80 / 0 0 0 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...KRS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

961
FXUS64 KMRX 230710
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
310 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 308 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

- Unseasonably warm and dry conditions will continue through
Friday. Low afternoon relative humidity each day with values in
the 20s and 30s expected.

- Increasing chances of showers and possibly storms late Friday
night into Saturday.

- Another round of storms anticipated early next week, with
potential for some strong to severe storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Surface high pressure will remain over the area and an upper ridge
will be building in today, providing plenty of sunshine and a very
warm afternoon. For fire weather concerns, relative humidity values
will be quite low again today, with values in the 20s across much of
the area, but winds will be lighter than yesterday. Slight
improvement in minimum RH is expected Friday although values will
still be low, and southwesterly winds pick up to around 10 mph
across much of the area.

The ridge flattens out Friday night into Saturday as short wave
energy moves into the Great Lakes Region while a weaker southern
stream wave approaches our area from the west. An associated weak
cold front will be pushed through our area Saturday. Models do not
agree on the details with this system, but most generally agree that
little or no phasing of the waves occurs and dynamics will not be
strong for our area. Given the poor model run to run consistency and
agreement and the fact that this is expected model behavior with
these types of weaker and somewhat chaotic scenarios, it is best not
to get too caught up in the details until we get closer. However,
right now ensemble data suggests that CAPE will be limited and shear
generally weak. Ensemble joint probabilities for SBCAPE > 500 J/kg
and 0-500mb bulk shear > 30kts is generally around or less than 15%
for our area, and using MUCAPE produces only slightly higher
results. There is still time for things to change, but right now it
appears that while a few stronger storms cannot be ruled out, the
probability of severe storms is quite low for Friday night into
Saturday. Current total QPF shows around a quarter to three quarters
of an inch of rainfall with this system.

There is potential for a more significant system to bring another
round of showers and storms early in the week, with the highest
chance Monday night into Tuesday. Guidance suggests this more
dynamic system will have better potential for a stronger LLJ that
will tap into Gulf moisture. This leads to significantly greater
joint probabilities of CAPE > 500 J/kg and bulk shear > 30kts
relative to the weekend system. Right now the higher severe chances
still look to be to our south and west, but this system will bear
watching.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 139 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Clear and calm overnight under high pressure. Dry and mostly sunny
skies during the day with light W to SW winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 85 57 85 63 / 0 0 10 80
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 56 83 60 / 10 0 10 70
Oak Ridge, TN 83 54 83 60 / 0 0 10 70
Tri Cities Airport, TN 81 50 81 57 / 0 0 10 40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...KS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

474
FXUS64 KMRX 231847
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
247 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 245 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

- Unseasonably warm and dry conditions will continue through Friday,
along with another day of low afternoon relative humidity.

- Increasing chances of showers and possibly storms late Friday
night into Saturday. Severe weather does not seem likely.

- Another round of showers and storms anticipated early next week,
with at least some potential for some strong to severe storms.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Calm, clear, and mild tonight with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
With high pressured centered over the region, Friday temps will be
continue to be unseasonably warm with highs in the upper 70s to
lower 80s. Most areas stay dry but some isolated diurnal convection
is possible across the east TN mountains and Cumberland Plateau
during the afternoon hours.

Friday night into Saturday, precip chances sharply on the rise as a
shortwave and frontal boundary approach and move through the area.
Most areas should see some rainfall at some point during this
timeframe. Average QPF amounts will likely range between 0.25 and
0.75 inches. Some low-end/moderate instability is expected but with
very weak shear in place, do not anticipate any severe weather at
this time. With the rain and clouds around, temps will be cooler and
in the mid 70s for most places. Rain and storms exit east Saturday
night as the short wave pushes east into the Carolinas.

A short stint of high pressure returns Saturday night into Sunday
ahead of our next system. This should keep us mostly dry on Sunday
with temps climbing back into the upper 70s to low 80s.


Most models try and hold on to ridging for Monday, which would keep
us mostly dry and still unseasonably warm. By Monday night/Tuesday
morning however, rain and storms are likely to move in just ahead of
a cold front. The timing isn't overly conducive to severe weather
but there is a low-end risk in place at the moment. Looking at LREF
joint probabilities of at least 500 J/kg CAPE and 30 kts of bulk
shear, 40 to 60% probs are in place across the Cumberland Plateau.
These probs quickly diminish as you go east into the central valley.
Higher probs exist further west, closer to Nashville. This aligns
well with SPC day 5 outlook where the eastern edge of the 15% risk
area stops in middle TN. We will continue to keep an eye on things,
as a shift in timing will increase/decrease our threat. Aside from
any severe weather, mountain winds look gusty as the 850mb winds
ramp up to around 30 to 40 kts ahead of the front. Wind gusts in the
mountains could be as high as 40 mph. With the prior rain on
Saturday, and additional rain Monday night/Tuesday, these high winds
shouldn't be of too much of a concern fire weather-wise.


The rest of the period will remain unsettled with mostly zonal flow
in place behind the cold front. This zonal flow will keep the door
open for additional systems to move into our area from the west.

With several systems set to move thorugh our area over the next 7
days, probs of at least 1" of rainfall are quite high for most areas
at around 80 to 90%. Probs of at least 1" are a little lower though
across northeast TN and southwest VA, at around 50 to 70% chance.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 119 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period with light
southerly to southwesterly winds, generally less than 10kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 85 63 80 / 0 10 70 80
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 83 60 76 / 0 20 60 90
Oak Ridge, TN 54 83 60 76 / 0 20 70 80
Tri Cities Airport, TN 51 80 56 72 / 0 10 30 90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

501
FXUS64 KMRX 241057
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
657 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 647 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

- Warm weather to continue through the next 7 days.

- Isolated mountain showers today, more widespread rain and
scattered thunderstorms on Saturday.

- Another round of showers and storms anticipated late Monday into
Tuesday, with low potential for some strong to severe storms.

- Low to medium rain chances to continue through much of next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Rain chances will finally begin to pick up beginning today. The
incoming shortwave is still a day out, so forcing will be weak to
nonexistent, but enough CAPE underneath a 500 mb inversion should
allow for terrain forced showers to develop this afternoon, mainly
in the mountains along the NC border, but I could see an isolated
shower in the Plateau region as well. Won't rule out a lightning
strike, but the inversion digs in right around the -10C layer, so
storm depth into the favored ice crystal zones will be limited.

Shortwave riding in the westerly flow will really start to arrive
for Saturday, unfortunately for those with outdoor activities
planned. CAMs have been all over the place with how this unfolds,
but generally a few steady rain showers will be likely in the mid to
late morning hours. Then in the afternoon with the presence of the
weak trough, the atmosphere really becomes favorable for scattered thunderstorms. There's some shear present, primarily speed shear, so
a strong thunderstorm with breezy winds and small hail is a
potential. Otherwise much needed rainfall will fall.

Sunday looks to be mainly a drying out day. Guidance has thin CAPE
profiles, and with the suppressive midlevel ridge building back in,
expect dry to mostly dry weather. The next shortwave will be moving
across the upper tier of the country to start the week, with a
punching subtropical jet extending across the Southern Plains. This
is the focus of the SPC's extended outlook for Monday, with a large
risk to our west. We're likely to get the sloppy seconds of whatever
comes of that system, which in part depends on what occurs Sunday
over the Southern Plains. Shear, especially low level shear, will be
favorable for strong to severe, but timing is once again aiming to
be in the evening or nighttime hours.

Beyond Tuesday morning, the subtropical jet enhancing westerlies
will stay dominant through the week, possibly coupled with a slow
moving frontal boundary, presenting our region with an unsettled
pattern and keeping low to medium chances for rain in the for the
remainder of the work week. Over the course of the next 7 days, 1
inch probabilities are fairly high area wide, and 2 inch
probabilities are 20% Tri Cities, 40% Knoxville, 60% Chattanooga. If
the heavier amounts can come to fruition that would be very
beneficial for fighting the drought.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 657 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Winds will increase from a westerly to southwesterly direction
with increasing clouds around 10,000 feet AGL. Some gusts are
possible, but winds will be fairly light overall. Heading into
tonight, rain chances will increase from the west, but rain was
left out of the TAFs as any potential impacts would likely be
after the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 84 62 78 57 / 10 70 90 20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 82 60 73 54 / 10 50 100 20
Oak Ridge, TN 83 60 73 54 / 10 60 90 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 55 71 51 / 10 20 90 40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

917
FXUS64 KMRX 241835
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
235 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 235 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

- Warm weather to continue through the next 7 days.

- Isolated mountain showers this afternoon, more widespread rain and
scattered thunderstorms on Saturday.

- Another round of showers and storms anticipated late Monday into
Tuesday, with low potential for some strong to severe storms.

- Low to medium rain chances to continue through much of next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Currently, terrain based showers have developed. Meso-analysis shows
limited instability with CAPE 250 or less so will keep only showers
in the forecast.

For Saturday, a short-wave with RRQ upper-level divergence will move
across the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians. A band of
showers will initially move into the region in the morning hours.
SPC HREF and deterministic models show increasing instability in the
afternoon with ensemble mean CAPES of 750-1000. A broken line of
showers and thunderstorms are anticipated. Convective activity will
dissipate around sunset.

For Sunday, short-wave moves east with subsidence behind the system
and building upper ridge producing a 700mb capping inversion. Only
orographic lift over the far east Tennessee mountains will produce
scattered terrain convection. Most locations will be dry and warm.

For Monday, upper ridging will continue to build over the area with
tightening pressure gradient as surface ridging moves east into
the Carolinas. A breezy and very warm day is on tap.

For Monday night through Wednesday, a series of northern and
southern stream waves will produce an unsettled weather pattern.
Confidence is low on how these series of systems will develop and
how phasing is expected. There is a chance of severe storms during
this period and will be monitored for later updates.

For Thursday and Friday, northwest flow aloft will be the dominant
weather story with waves rotating down in this flow possibliy
producing showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 126 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Main forecast aviation concern is the incoming band of convection
for Saturday morning. Limited instability in the morning so
thunder chances are low but increasing in the afternoon.

Otherwise, tightening pressure gradients this afternoon will be
gusts in excess of 15+ knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 62 76 57 83 / 60 90 30 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 72 55 79 / 30 100 40 20
Oak Ridge, TN 59 74 54 80 / 40 90 30 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 54 74 54 75 / 10 90 60 30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DH


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

381
FXUS64 KMRX 251055
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
655 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 652 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

- Warm weather to continue through the next 7 days.

- Scattered rain showers this morning and scattered thunderstorms
this afternoon.

- Another round of showers and storms anticipated late Monday into
Tuesday, with low potential for strong storms.

- Low to medium rain chances to continue through much of next
week. Medium to high rain chances on Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

With the arrival of a weak shortwave today expecting weak showers
this morning followed by a few scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon, in both the mountains and valley. Been curiously watching
the CAMs flip flop run to run on extent of both the morning showers
and afternoon storms, so I vote for the most widespread rain as
Nature wants to bestow upon us, given the drought. Given the
uncertainty even in the near term spread of guidance, wouldn't be
expecting constant rain all day, a few periods of rain and scattered
storms is a more reasonable expectation. Unfortunately this means
there's bust potential for those who miss out on rain. Fortunately
this isn't the last batch of rain.

With Sunday likely to be dry, we look towards next week for
additional rain chances. Monday night has continued to look
unimpressive, with the AI-IFS guidance indicating a really late
overnight into Tuesday morning arrival times for storms. Long range
NAM has a steep surface inversion should storms arrive that late,
which would significantly alter storm severity and hazard type,
though elevated strong convection could still occur. Still, given
the breadth of convective solutions, it's really just a monitor and
see on timing and CAPE profiles.

Heading into the midweek the upper jet re-strengthens and a slowly
sagging cold front are likely to spur additional convection on
Wednesday. The good news is multiple opportunities should eventually
stack up and lead to decent rainfall results across a wide portion
of the region, even if not every person scores in every round. The
swiss cheese model of trying to escape drought via multiple rounds
of scattered thunderstorms. Even at the end of next week there's
potential for a southern low to go riding along the southeastern
front, yielding continued unsettled weather even if we're on the
north side of the front by then. The longwave trough helping to push
the front south also means cooler weather by the end of the work
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Increasing rain chances are expected throughout the day with
showers and storms developing in the afternoon hours. Outside of
rain, VFR is expected to persist with MVFR or less likely within
rain showers. Winds will be pretty light and from generally a
southwesterly direction. Rain coverage will decrease overnight
with fog possible in places that receive more rainfall.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 76 58 83 58 / 80 30 10 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 74 55 80 55 / 70 30 10 0
Oak Ridge, TN 74 55 81 55 / 70 20 10 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 75 52 77 48 / 80 30 20 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

187
FXUS64 KMRX 251750
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
150 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 149 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

- Warm weather to continue through the next 7 days.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

- Another round of showers and storms anticipated late Monday
into Tuesday, with low potential for strong storms.

- Low to medium rain chances to continue through much of next
week. Medium to high rain chances on Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 149 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Regional radar and satellite imagery shows plenty off low and mid
clouds still around East Tennessee with embedded scattered rain
showers ongoing. Further west however, convective coverage is
increasing fairly rapidly, with some thunder being noted in the
southern Cumberland plateau already. Most of the high resolution
guidance favors additional development in the southern parts of
Middle Tennessee this afternoon in an area of relatively lower
pressure and surface convergence as noted on satellite imagery.
These solutions then show that activity then transitioning ESE
into the southern half of the Tennessee valley into the late
afternoon and evening hours. This seems reasonable to me, but the
current trends also suggest that maintaining rain chances area
wide through late this evening is a reasonable approach too. This
is what the NBM output

Rain chances wrap up tonight, with ridging building overhead on
Sunday into Monday. Expect dry conditions during this time. By
Monday afternoon however, strong cyclogenesis will be occurring in
the upper midwest. This system will push a front through our area
Monday night into Tuesday morning. The overnight arrival time and
the stronger dynamics being displaced to our northwest suggest the
severe threat with this system is not very high for our area. Will
continue to monitor for now, but if these trends in timing,
thermodynamic profiles, etc, continue then the severe threat looks
quite low.

Heading into the midweek the upper jet re-strengthens and a slowly
sagging cold front are likely to spur additional convection on
Wednesday. The good news is multiple opportunities should eventually
stack up and lead to decent rainfall results across a wide portion
of the region, even if not every person scores in every round. The
swiss cheese model of trying to escape drought via multiple rounds
of scattered thunderstorms. Even at the end of next week there's
potential for a southern low to go riding along the southeastern
front, yielding continued unsettled weather even if we're on the
north side of the front by then. The longwave trough helping to push
the front south also means cooler weather by the end of the work
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 149 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

SHRA and TSRA coverage will increase through the afternoon and
evening hours. Will maintain a TEMPO for those conditions at all
terminals to account for this. Winds should remain light through
the period, with variable direction this afternoon becoming
steady northerly this evening and overnight. Fog development
tonight seems likely but confidence in how widespread and how
dense it becomes is not particularly high. KTRI probably has the
best chance for calm winds and fog development, but it could occur
anywhere.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 83 59 82 / 20 0 10 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 54 81 56 83 / 20 0 0 10
Oak Ridge, TN 53 82 56 83 / 10 0 0 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 52 79 49 80 / 30 0 0 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...CD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

512
FXUS64 KMRX 260655
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
255 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 255 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

- Fog is present this morning, be aware of patchy dense fog
significantly reducing visibilities.

- Next round of showers and storms anticipated early Tuesday, with
low potential for strong storms.

- Additional showers and thunderstorms likely on Wednesday.

- Low rain chances Thursday into next weekend, with cooler weather
arriving.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Thanks to the earlier rain showers, fog has formed, with nighttime microphysics imagery and airport observations indicating valley fog
has already formed across portions of northern Tennessee into
southwestern Virginia. Where fog is currently prevalent, a Dense Fog
Advisory is in effect. Fog is still possible elsewhere in East
Tennessee and southwest North Carolina, especially in fog prone
locations such as the I-75 corridor near Cleveland.

With the shortwave departing, the midlevel ridge builds back in and
will yield a dry Sunday. Monday is also likely to be dry, as classic
physics based guidance has moved into alignment with the AI-IFS on
pushing off showers and thunderstorms into early Tuesday.
Fortunately the parent surface low will be ejecting to the far
western Great Lakes with this system, keeping a lot of the better
dynamics far to our west. A few strong storms may be possible,
depending on how much CAPE, especially elevated CAPE, can be
realized Tuesday morning. Guidance continues to indicate a stout
inversion between the surface and at least the first km of
atmosphere, so despite the LLJ ramping with storm arrival, not
expecting a tornado threat.

Heading into Wednesday a weaker vorticity lobe in the larger upper
trough over the western Great Lakes will be swinging around, and
coupled with the re-strengthening westerly jet will help fire
another round of showers and thunderstorms. This second system
should result in a cold front pushing from north to south through
Tennessee by Thursday. This airmass change will yield cooler weather thereafter through the weekend. Will have to watch morning
temperatures, guidance is indicating 20-40% chance for frost
friendly temperatures next weekend across northeastern Tennessee
into southwestern Virginia. High uncertainty by next weekend on
whether or not we see any rain by then or a dry spell for the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

After recent rainfall, fog has been expanding across the region.
TRI has already seen IFR to LIFR with CHA and TYS expected to see
reductions in the coming hours. MVFR will likely be more common at
these sites, but IFR to even LIFR is possible. After morning fog,
improvements back to VFR are expected. Northeasterly winds and
decreasing cloud cover will continue through the day with no rain
expected at the sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 83 59 82 59 / 0 0 0 70
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 80 55 83 58 / 0 0 0 60
Oak Ridge, TN 80 54 83 58 / 0 0 0 70
Tri Cities Airport, TN 77 48 80 52 / 0 0 0 40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ this morning for
Anderson-Bledsoe-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Marion-Morgan-
Scott TN-Sequatchie-Union.

VA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for Lee-Russell-
Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

867
FXUS64 KMRX 261741
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
141 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 134 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

- Next round of showers and storms anticipated early Tuesday, with
low potential for strong storms.

- An additional round of showers and thunderstorms likely early
Wednesday morning. While chances for severe storms are slightly
higher than Monday night, the overall likelihood of severe
storms remains low.

- Low rain chances Thursday into next weekend, with cooler weather
arriving.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

The main takeaway for the coming week is that we are likely to see
multiple rounds of widespread, and much needed, rainfall across the
entirety of the NWS Morristown forecast area. There could also be
some chances for some severe storms mixed in, mainly Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning, but confidence remains low overall.

An upper trough and associated surface low will lift northeast
through the upper midwest on Monday, dragging a front towards East
Tennessee Monday night into Tuesday morning. Showers associated with
this feature arrive in our CWA around or shortly after daybreak
Tuesday morning. I don't believe there to be much support for any
severe storms with this activity. Depending on which model sounding
you look at, there's some elevated instability that could support
thunder and possibly some small hail. But that is about it,
and there's a substantial low level inversion in place so surface-
based convection seems highly unlikely and thus negates any notable
threat of damaging winds or other hazards.

The aforementioned front will stall out just to our west on Tuesday.
However it will eventually be pushed through our CWA early Wednesday
by a trailing upper disturbance that moves through the greater
Tennessee river valley in the westerly flow aloft Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. This disturbance will be aided by a strengthening subtropical jet over the I-40 corridor between Arkansas and New
Mexico, firing off another round of convection across Middle
Tennessee Tuesday night that will push into our forecast area
during the morning hours on Wednesday. Once again the early morning
hour arrival time doesn't favor severe chances overall. However the
low level inversion is much weaker Tue night and forecast soundings
do show better shear and slightly more instability, including some
noteworthy DCAPE on the order of a few hundred J/kg in the
Chattanooga area. The current SPC Day 3 Outlook has a Slight Risk
area that extends east into our Cumberland Plateau areas and parts
of the southern TN valley in East Tennessee. Despite the overnight
arrival this seems reasonable, with models favoring a damaging wind
threat should any severe storms occur.

Behind the front, cooler temperatures are on tap through the
weekend. Temperatures could drop low enough for there to be some
frost potential by next weekend in our far northeast Tennessee and southwestern Virginia counties. It is possible we see another
round of rain next weekend, but there is a high degree of
uncertainty there.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 134 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

All sites should see a return to VFR flight categories in the next
hour or two, either by CIGS lifting or scattering out. By late this
afternoon SKC to FEW250 should be the rule. No fog or low clouds are
expected tonight. With regards to winds, expect gusty winds to
around 15kt to continue at KTYS for another couple of hours
before gradients relax. Otherwise, light and variable conditions are
expected at KTYS and KTRI. Similar conditions will be seen at KCHA
but high pressure east of the Appalchians will switch the winds to a
sustained SELY direction later tonight.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 58 81 60 77 / 0 0 60 70
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 54 83 57 75 / 0 0 60 70
Oak Ridge, TN 54 82 57 75 / 0 0 70 80
Tri Cities Airport, TN 48 80 52 72 / 0 0 40 70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...CD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

631
FXUS64 KMRX 270646
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
246 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 245 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

- Next round of showers and storms anticipated late Monday night
into early Tuesday, with low potential for strong storms. Gusty
winds in the foothills and portions of the Plateau are likely.

- An additional round of showers and thunderstorms likely late
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Low potential again for strong to
severe storms.

- Low rain chances Thursday into next weekend, with cooler weather
arriving.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

At least two rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected over
the next three days, primarily late tonight into Tuesday morning,
and again late Tuesday night into Wednesday. These should give
healthy amounts of rainfall to much of the region. Environment does
not look overly favorable for severe weather tonight, though we'll
watch it anyways. Late timing arrival for storms, likely past
midnight, means a stout inversion will be allowed to set up. There's
still plenty of MUCAPE available for thunderstorms, but not
confident we'll see a significant threat beyond small hail, gusty
winds, and lightning. Winds on the Plateau, especially northern
Plateau, may be gusting to near wind advisory criteria in advance of
the storms, as winds just above the surface will be 40 knots. Any
strong convective downdraft can also grab a hold of this low level
jet. Meanwhile a strong temperature gradient is likely to fuel
strong winds in the mountain wave prone foothills, with gusts to 40
mph possible.

Second disturbance will bring a second round of showers and
thunderstorms late Tuesday through Wednesday along with the cold
front, effecting an airmass change in our area. Once more will have
to watch for strong thunderstorms during this period, although the
LLJ is weaker for this second round of storms. Effective shear is
still strong enough to be favorable for storms, the biggest question
is still the CAPE profile and lapse rates. Current soundings
indicate rather poor lapse rates and low CAPE, likely a big limit
for severe potential. The ideal solution is we get widespread
beneficial rainfall.

Post front, we'll trend a little cooler, with still the potential
for frost each morning from Friday into the weekend in cooler spots
of northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia. We've also been
trending steadily drier Thursday and onwards, with guidance
indicating large mature troughs far to our north, and active weather
along the Gulf coast, keeping us stuck in the middle.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 117 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Quiet aviation conditions are expected for the rest of the night
and into the morning hours with light winds and limited cloud
cover. Fog is possible in some areas, but the probability is
limited regarding development at the TAF sites. Throughout the
day, southerly to southeasterly winds will increase with gusts
near 20 kts possible at CHA. Winds will likely continue into the
first part of the night ahead of potential showers and storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 81 59 78 64 / 0 60 70 90
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 57 77 62 / 0 60 70 90
Oak Ridge, TN 82 56 76 62 / 0 60 70 90
Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 52 74 57 / 0 60 70 70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

291
FXUS64 KMRX 271834
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
234 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 233 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will move into the area late tonight/early
Tuesday morning. Isolated strong/severe storm possible mainly
Plateau and southeast Tennessee. Main threat will be strong and
gusty winds.

- Windy conditions for the far east Tennessee mountains/foothills
tonight/early Tuesday morning. Gusts up to 50 mph possible.

- Periods of showers and thunderstorms likely late Tuesday into
Wednesday. Potential of strong to severe storms but timing,
intensity, and extent of the severe thunderstorms remain low.

- Another round of mainly rain showers expected Friday through
Saturday. Thunder chances are quite low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Currently, a wedge of high pressure across the eastern seaboard is
slowly pulling drier low-level moisture into east Tennessee,
southwest Virginia, southwest North Carolina. Latest HREF/HRRR model
shows dewpoints dropping into the 40s to lower 50s this evening with
some upper 30s possible over southwest Virginia.

This wedging will east of the Appalachians and low pressure over the mid-west/upper Ohio valley will produce fairly tight pressure
gradients overnight. As the low-level inversion estabilishes itself
this evening. HREF and HRRR shows mountain wave winds developing
with southeast winds increasing to 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50
mph possible. A wind advisory has been issued.

Upper divergence will move across the region with strong convection
over the mid-west/western Ohio valley moving east southeast into the
Tennessee valley overnight/early Tuesday morning. This line of
convection will weaken as it moves into the more stable airmass over
the area. However, mid-level lapse rates of 7-7.5 degrees C will
produce elevated instability allowing for the threat of strong to
severe storms over the Plateau and southeast Tennessee early Tuesday
morning. Main concern will be damaging winds and small hail.

For Tuesday, post short-wave subsidence and developing mid-level cap
will limit convection much of the day. Morning clouds will give way
to more sun in the afternoon.

For Tuesday night, a stronger short-wave and upper jet will produce
good synoptic forcing. Depending on how the airmass can destabilize
ahead of the next system and return flow of southerly winds, a great
threat of severe storms is expected especially for the Plateau and
southeast Tennessee. Main concern will be damaging winds and large
hail.

For Wednesday, there is another potential of severe storms as
frontal boundary will be across the region during the day. Depending
on how much breaks in the clouds, ensembles and latest deterministic
runs show mid-level lapses rates of 7+ degree/C, decent hail growth
CAPE, and effective bulk shear of 40-50 knots to produce
strong/severe storms. Shear and Instability show the greatest
potential of organized severe storms, but confidence remains low of
the intensity and extent of the thunderstorms but will monitor
closely.

For Thursday and part of Friday, surface ridging will produce drier conditions.

For the later half of Friday through Saturday, ensembles and
deterministic models are becoming in better agreement with a
southern stream wave moving across the Gulf Coast states and
Tennessee valley. Strong jet dynamics will produce widespread/much
needed rainfall across the southeast United States, possibly into
the Tennessee valley/southern Appalachians as well. Surface low will
move well south of the region with little to no instability. Expect
mainly shower activity.

Surface ridging and drier conditions for Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Main Aviation Forecast concern is the expected showers and
thunderstorms for early Tuesday morning. Some of these storms
could produce strong and gusty winds. Otherwise, as the line of
convection moves across the region ceiling will drop to marginal
MVFR conditions from 10-16Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 59 77 64 80 / 60 60 100 90
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 58 76 61 76 / 60 60 90 100
Oak Ridge, TN 57 75 60 76 / 70 60 90 100
Tri Cities Airport, TN 53 73 58 71 / 60 70 80 100

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for
Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier
Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DH


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

064
FXUS64 KMRX 280628
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
228 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 227 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will move into the area late
tonight/early Tuesday morning. Isolated strong/severe storm possible
mainly Plateau and southeast Tennessee. Main threat will be strong
and gusty winds.

- Windy conditions for the far east Tennessee mountains/foothills tonight/early Tuesday morning. Gusts up to 50 mph possible.

- Periods of showers and thunderstorms likely late Tuesday evening
into Wednesday. Potential of strong to severe storms but timing,
intensity, and extent of the severe thunderstorms remain low.

- Another round of mainly rain showers expected Friday through
Saturday. Thunder chances are quite low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

In the upper levels, a ridge is over the East Coast tonight as a
shortwave moves through the Great Lakes. Nearly zonal flow will be
over the Tennessee Valley. At the surface, a low is moving through
the Great Lakes with a cold front currently over Illinois into
Missouri and Arkansas. A line of showers and storms is along and
ahead of this front. Scattered storms have developed over Middle
Tennessee. CAM guidance has these storms forming a line and falling
apart as it moves into the region. Still some strong to severe
storms will be possible mainly in the Plateau counties and Southern
Tennessee Valley. Gusty winds will be the primary threat as the line
moves through the region late tonight into the early morning hours.

With southerly winds increasing overnight, downslope wind
enhancement is expected in the East Tennessee mountains and
foothills with gusts up to 50 mph expected in downslope prone spots.
Winds will peak overnight and begin decreasing by daybreak. 850 mb
winds will peak around 40 to 45 knots in the Tennessee Valley. Cold
air damming on the North Carolina side of the mountains is enhancing
the pressure gradient between the Tennessee Valley and the North
Carolina mountains and will increase downslope potential to the
Tennessee foothills.

Rain will clear out Tuesday morning as the cold front remains well
to our west. Another round of showers and storms will move into the
region Tuesday evening as a weak low develops in the South. In the
upper levels, a shortwave will move through the pattern Tuesday
evening. A few strong to severe storms will be possible mainly in
the Plateau counties and the southern/central Tennessee Valley.
Timing around 8pm to midnight is the best chance for some stronger
storms producing gusty winds. Forecast soundings suggest that
capping maybe a limiting factor.

Showers and storms are possible through the day Wednesday as the
weak low moves through the Southeast. With good effective shear and
decent instability expected on Wednesday, we will have to monitor
for severe potential. By Wednesday evening or night, rain will clear
out as the front moves through with a cooler, drier air mass
expected by Thursday.

Friday night into Saturday, another low is expected to move through
the Southeast bringing widespread showers and rain. With low
instability expected, thunder will be minimal if any. Sunday looks
dry. Temperatures will be cooler this week with highs in the 60s and
70s. The coolest day will be Saturday with highs in the lower 60s
for most of the Tennessee Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 151 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Showers and storms will move into the region over the next several
hours with LLWS currently expected in CHA and TYS. During the
storms, strong winds are possible, along with quick reductions to
MVFR or less, mainly from 09Z to 13Z. MVFR conditions will
continue through much of the morning as rain coverage decreases.
Improvements are expected later in the day with continued
southwesterly winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 79 64 80 54 / 60 90 90 20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 77 61 76 52 / 50 90 100 30
Oak Ridge, TN 77 61 77 51 / 50 80 100 30
Tri Cities Airport, TN 74 58 72 48 / 60 80 100 50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for Blount Smoky
Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky
Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

182
FXUS64 KMRX 282259
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
659 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 643 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

- Periods of showers and thunderstorms try to move in this evening
and tonight. Low potential of strong to severe storms, but the
threat cannot be completely ruled out.

- Wednesday morning and possibly again in the afternoon/evening will
see another round of isolated thunderstorms that could bring gusty
winds and hail.

- Another round of mainly rain showers expected Friday through
Saturday. Thunder chances are quite low.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 643 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for Morgan, Scott (TN),
Bledsoe and Sequatchie Counties until 2 AM. A cluster of strong to
severe thunderstorms is moving into Middle Tennessee shortly. This
cluster is expected to weaken as it moves into East Tennessee but
there is a chance that the watch may need to be extended eastward
slightly. Timing for the Plateau counties looks to be around 10PM
to midnight. The main threat will be damaging winds if storms can
hold together. Will update with mesoanalysis as storms move
closer.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Discussion:

Currently storms have moved well to our south and well to our east,
but are still currently ongoing. This long line of storms is likely
going to influence the atmosphere tonight, so it's worth keeping an
eye on as it's likely inhibiting the atmosphere from recovering and destabilizing. North of this line expect more minor/moderate
destabilization this afternoon into this evening. This hopefully
looks to limit the severe thunderstorm chances this evening/tonight.
Cannot completely say we're in the clear, as we'll have to see how
strong storms to our west (Currently over Arkansas) maintain
strength as they move further east. If they have strong forward
momentum they could bring their own dynamics as they move towards
the Cumberland Plateau. However at this time its looking
increasingly likely that the airmass over the eastern Tennessee
Valley remains fairly stable and really squashes severe convection.

Wednesday is shaping up to be a potentially interesting day with
more synoptic and jet dynamics likely in play in our area. Mid level
jet starts to nose into the region tomorrow and along with it we'll
see an increase in lapse rates, especially in the afternoon as they
climb to 6.5-7.0C/km. The jets also bring with them some very dry
mid level air which dramatically increases the DCAPE as we approach
the afternoon hours. So there are 2 main timeframe for storms on
Wednesday.

1. Wednesday morning around sunrise in northeast TN and southwest VA
as the remnants of overnight storms get affected by better jet and
dynamic forcing they could reinvigorate causing a brief window of
strong storms

2. Later in the day as we destabilize and have stronger forcing
overhead we could see isolated storms develop. These afternoon
storms could bring strong downburst winds and quarter size hail.
This afternoon window is pretty brief, with the highest chances to
see strong storms around 18-22z (4-8pm EDT).

A few lingering showers are possible later in the evening, but the
majority of people will remain rain-free most of the night. Friday
night into Saturday, another low is expected to move through the s
southeast bringing widespread showers and rain. With low instability
expected, thunder will be minimal if any. Sunday looks dry.
Temperatures will be cooler this week with highs in the 60s and 70s.
The coolest day will be Saturday with highs in the lower 60s for
most of the Tennessee Valley.

Yet another front will make a dive at the region early next week
which could be the trigger for another round of showers and
thunderstorms.

With several systems and rain events expected temperatures will stay
fairly moderate for the next 7 days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Breezy south to southwest winds will persist over the next few
hours. Recent satellite trends suggest a higher probability that CHA
remains socked into MVFR conditions. There is potential the cloud
deck lifts enough for a few hours of low VFR conditions this
evening, but confidence is low. MVFR cigs are expected to return to
the region alongside increasing chances for rain tonight. Scattered
showers and potentially a few isolated thunderstorms will develop
again tomorrow afternoon, especially for TYS/TRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 64 80 55 72 / 90 60 20 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 76 52 68 / 90 80 20 0
Oak Ridge, TN 61 77 50 69 / 90 80 20 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 72 48 65 / 80 90 40 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...McD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

817
FXUS64 KMRX 290627
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
227 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 226 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will continue overnight and into the
morning hours. The potential for severe storms is very low overnight.

- Wednesday afternoon and early evening scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are expected. A few may be strong to severe
with gusty winds and hail mainly in Northeast Tennessee and
Southwest Virginia.

- Rain chances are on a downward trend for the system Friday night
into Saturday as the low shifts farther south.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Strong storms over Middle Tennessee this evening dissipated before
reaching East Tennessee. Currently, low pressure at the surface is
centered near Northeast Arkansas with a frontal boundary extending
north and east along the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. Strong to
severe storms are over Northern Mississippi. The cold front well to
the west in western Arkansas. In the upper levels, a ridge remains
over the East Coast tonight. A weak shortwave is moving through the
Southeast tonight. CAPE is very low in Middle and East Tennessee.
HREF guidance has CAPE staying below 100 J/kg overnight. Potential
for severe storms will be very low overnight. Showers and storms or
a batch of rain with embedded thunder will move through the region
overnight and lingering into the morning hours.

By early afternoon on Wednesday, nearly zonal flow will be over the
region in the upper levels and the surface low will be near OH/PA. A
cold front will move through the region in the late afternoon or
early evening hours bringing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms especially in Northeast Tennessee and Southwest
Virginia. A few strong to severe storms are possible ahead of that
front mainly in Northeast Tennessee and Southwest Virginia but
overall the threat is low. Damaging winds and hail around one inch
(quarter) size will be possible with good dynamics in place,
synoptic forcing, CAPE 500-1000 J/kg and Effective shear around 40
knots. The window for strong storms will be brief from about 3 PM
EDT to 7 PM EDT.

By late Wednesday evening or night, rain will clear out as the front
moves through with a cooler, drier air mass expected by Thursday.

Friday night into Saturday, another low is expected to move through
the Southeast. Rain chances are on a downward trend with the low now
projected to track farther south closer to the Gulf. Sunday looks
dry. Early next week looks mostly dry with low rain chances and high
pressure over the Southeast. Temperatures will be cooler with highs
mainly in the 60s starting Thursday through the weekend. The coolest
day will be Saturday with highs in the 60s for all of the Tennessee
Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 127 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Reductions are already ongoing at CHA and TRI and are expected to
continue for the rest of the night into the morning hours. Rain
with isolated lightning strikes is approaching from the west and
will produce further reductions at CHA with TYs expected to reach
MVFR in the coming hours. This initial rain will move out of CHA
and TYS by after sunrise with slow improvements back to VFR into
the early afternoon. Additional showers and storms are expected to
develop with the best coverage being around TRI. Reductions to at
least MVFR are expected within showers and storms. Also, westerly
winds will increase through the day with gusts above 20 kts likely
by the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 79 53 72 52 / 70 10 0 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 76 50 68 47 / 70 10 0 10
Oak Ridge, TN 77 49 69 47 / 70 10 0 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 73 47 65 41 / 90 20 10 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

648
FXUS64 KMRX 291809
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
209 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 152 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected over
the next few hours. A few may be strong to severe with gusty
winds and hail the main hazard.

- Rain chances are on a downward trend for the system Friday night into
Saturday as the low shifts farther south.

- Overall, near to slightly below normal temperatures are expected
through the weekend. Portions of the area may see temperatures
favorable for frost Sunday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 152 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

A southwest to northwest wind shift can be noted among surface
observations as a cold front is advecting through central TN/KY.
Latest satellite imagery shows minor to pockets of moderate clearing
across our CWA ahead of this front. SPC meso and CAMs continue to
show agreement in MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg, lapse rates near 6.5-
7.0degC, and DCAPE near 800J/kg as additional scattered activity is
expected to swing across the area. This is all alongside effective
shear near 50kts. Ideally would have liked to see a little bit
better clearing for higher confidence in strong to severe, and
the slower clearing may be resulting in more of a narrow time
window for potential isolated severe - perhaps between 3-6pm, but
still believe the potential for a few stronger storms is there.
One interesting trend to note in the CAMs is an uptick in
convective intensity as the activity approaches the mountains,
suggesting local topography may be what is needed to overcome the
lack of upper level lift. With the strong thermo profile, winds
and hail will be of primary concern with the strongest activity. Unidirectional shear profiles will minimize the threat of any
spin-ups, but cannot say it is zero.

For Thursday and Friday, quasi-zonal flow aloft will promote mostly
dry conditions with near seasonable temperatures. There will be a
vort max advecting through the mid-west with an additional shortwave translating across the southern plains Friday. While a non-impactful
shower cannot be totally ruled out across our CWA fringes, the main
impact will be increasing clouds.

These synoptic features will promote a trough axis swinging through
the area late Friday night/early Saturday morning and through the
day Saturday. We will see a return of precip chances during this
time frame, especially for areas along and east of an imaginary line
from CHA to TRI, in closer proximity to a southwesterly H5 jet core
near 75-85kts across the Carolinas. High pressure builds into the
region Sunday as drier and cooler conditions end the weekend.
Depending on how quickly clouds clear out Saturday night, there is
potential for temperatures supportive of areas of frost in portions
of northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia Sunday morning.

Reinforcement of the eastern CONUS trough is expected in the Mon/Tue
time frame. A frontal boundary moving southward through the Ohio
Valley will bring a return of shower/storm chances but weaker upper
forcing suggest no standout threat of strong/svr during this time
frame. A brief dry period is expected mid-week before a more
pronounced trough brings additional showers and storms in the Wed
Night/Thu time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 152 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Low VFR to MVFR conditions will continue over the next few hours
as a cold front begins traverses the region. Most likely time to
have a potential shower or storm impact a terminal has been
covered with prob30s, with the best chance for lightning activity
at TYS/TRI. Predominant VFR conditions with a shift to
NWly/Nly winds is expected behind the front this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 53 72 52 70 / 10 0 10 20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 50 68 47 69 / 10 0 10 20
Oak Ridge, TN 49 69 47 70 / 10 0 10 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 47 65 41 66 / 20 10 10 20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...KRS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

430
FXUS64 KMRX 300627
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
227 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 226 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

- Rain chances are increasing for Southeast Tennessee and Southwest
North Carolina late tonight. Elsewhere may see some light rain.

- A system will move through the Southeast bringing rain chances to
Southeast Tennessee and Southwest North Carolina Friday night and
Saturday.

- Portions of the area may see temperatures favorable for frost
Sunday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

The cold front has moved through the region and is currently over
North GA/AL. Showers are starting to develop along the boundary in
Northwest GA. The HRRR has a blob of rain moving into Southeast
Tennessee and Southwest North Carolina late tonight which suggests
the boundary is stalling. The surface low is currently near the
Central AL/MS border, the movement of this low overnight may help
bring the boundary and moisture closer to the southernmost counties
late tonight. Light spotty showers are developing in Middle
Tennessee and will move into the rest of the region overnight.

Today will be dry with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s for the
Tennessee Valley, cooler than recent days. Rain chances are also
very low on Friday, afternoon highs a bit warmer in the upper 60s
and lower 70s.

Friday night into Saturday, a stalled boundary near the Gulf coast
will bring rain to the Southeast as a surface low develops off the
coast of GA/SC and moves up the coast. The best chance for rain
locally will be in Southeast Tennessee and Southwest North Carolina
but the bulk of the rain will be farther south. With dew points
expected to be in the 40s there will not be any thunder. Saturday
still looks like the coolest day with highs in the 60s in the
Tennessee Valley which is 10 degrees below normal. Sunday morning
may bring some frost to Northeast Tennessee, Southwest Virginia and
the higher elevations.

Sunday, Monday and Tuesday look mostly dry with high pressure over
the Southeast. A warming trend begins early next week. Rain chances
are expected to increase by Wednesday with a possible cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 110 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Showers and possibly an isolated lightning strike will move into
CHA by the early morning hours. Occasional reductions to MVFR are
included in a TEMPO group, but primarily VFR is anticipated. At
TRI, conditions have remained just above MVFR, which is expected
for the rest of the night. Throughout the day, clearing conditions
are expected with persistent northerly to northwesterly winds.
Gusts will be more limited with the best chances being at CHA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 51 72 50 / 0 10 10 50
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 48 71 48 / 0 0 10 40
Oak Ridge, TN 69 47 72 48 / 0 0 10 30
Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 41 68 46 / 0 0 10 30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)