ACUS03 KWNS 160707
SWODY3
SPC AC 160705

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds
and hail will be possible on Saturday across part of the Ohio Valley.

...Ohio Valley...

A large-scale upper trough oriented over the Upper Midwest and
Plains will shift east over the Great Lakes, Midwest and TN Valley
on Saturday/Saturday night. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow
will overspread the Ohio Valley ahead of an eastward-advancing cold
front. This front should be located from Lower MI into southeast MO
Saturday morning, moving across the Ohio Valley through early
evening. Modest boundary-layer moisture will be in place ahead of
the front. Daytime heating into the 70s and modestly steep midlevel
lapse rates will support weak destabilization (generally less than
1000 J/kg MLCAPE). While instability will be modest, strong low and
midlevel flow will support organized cells and/or line segments
capable of strong gusts. Any discrete cellular activity also may
produce marginally severe hail. These severe risk should gradually
wane during the evening with eastward extent.

...TX to the Lower MS Valley...

Thunderstorms are expected along a southeast-advancing cold front
Saturday afternoon and evening. Deep-layer flow will be oriented
parallel to the front, and convection may largely be anafrontal or
quickly undercut by the front. While weak MUCAPE is noted in
forecast soundings, severe potential is not expected at this time.

..Leitman.. 04/16/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS03 KWNS 220722
SWODY3
SPC AC 220721

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the
Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. Large
hail and damaging wind gusts should be the primary threats.

... Synopsis ...

A persistent longwave trough will remain situated across the
northern US on Friday, maintaining a broad regime of cyclonic
midlevel flow over the western two-thirds of the country. Within
this broad flow, neutral to modest midlevel height rises are likely
across the Southern Plains. This evolution suggests a lack of robust large-scale forcing for ascent, with subtle subsidence potentially
acting as a limiting factor for widespread convective coverage.

... Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley ...

At the start of the forecast period, convective activity may be
ongoing across portions of northeast Oklahoma, southeast Kansas,
southern Missouri, or northern Arkansas along a consolidated outflow boundary/cold front. These storms should slowly weaken during the
morning with the loss of large-scale ascent and a weakening
low-level jet. The outflow boundary/cold front should slowly sag
south through the morning before stalling somewhere in the vicinity
of the I40 corridor. This feature will serve as the primary focus
for subsequent development later in the afternoon, with residual
outflow or differential heating boundaries being a secondary source
of initiation.

South of the frontal boundary, a highly unstable airmass will remain
in place across the warm sector. Strong diabatic heating of a moist
boundary layer will yield pockets of moderate-to-strong instability,
with MUCAPE values potentially in the 2000-3000 J/kg range. While
deep-layer shear is forecast to remain relatively modest (30-35
knots), the degree of instability will be sufficient to support
robust updrafts.

Given the modest shear and lack of stronger synoptic support, storm
modes will likely be multicell clusters or transient supercells. Any
persistent cell will be capable of producing large hail and
localized damaging wind gusts

... Lower Mississippi Valley ...

Convection that develops across Oklahoma and Arkansas during the
afternoon is expected to persist into the evening as it moves slowly east-southeast toward Mississippi and Tennessee. Although
instability is not as great with eastward extent, it should remain
sufficient enough to support some potential for sporadic wind and
hail through the overnight hours.

..Marsh.. 04/22/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS03 KWNS 030647
SWODY3
SPC AC 030646

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND ARKANSAS...

CORRECTED FOR SUMMARY

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday
afternoon and evening across portions of eastern Oklahoma and
northeast Texas into the Mid-South.

...Synopsis...

Deep-layer southwesterly flow will increase across the southern
Plains to the Ohio Valley and Northeast as the upper trough over the
Upper Midwest and northern/central Plains and an upper trough over
the Southwest begin to phase. At the surface, a cold front is
forecast to extend from southern Lower MI to northern OK Tuesday
morning. This boundary will develop slowly southeast through the
period, becoming oriented from NY to the Mid-South to north-central
TX by Wednesday morning. During the afternoon, a dryline will be
oriented across central TX. Ahead of the surface front and east of
the dryline, increasing southerly low-level flow will transport 60s
F dewpoints across the Sabine Valley into AR. The surface front and
dryline will serve as a focus for strong to severe thunderstorm
development during the afternoon/evening.

...OK/TX to the Mid-South...

Convective development is likely near the surface triple point and
cold front by 00z as forcing for ascent impinges on the moist and
moderately unstable airmass in the eastern OK/AR vicinity.
Thunderstorm coverage will likely increase through the evening as a
modest low-level jet develops. Any discrete convection that develops
will pose a risk for large hail and perhaps a tornado or two.
However, convection may become linear along the surface front rather
quickly, with an accompanying increase in damaging wind potential.

Severe potential along the dryline across parts of OK/TX is more uncertain/conditional. Capping and nebulous large-scale ascent
(especially with southwest extent across TX) may suppress
convection. However, if a storm can develop within the favorable
thermodynamic and kinematic parameter space, large hail will be possible.

..Leitman.. 05/03/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS03 KWNS 040620
SWODY3
SPC AC 040619

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS
INTO PARTS OF ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Wednesday
afternoon and evening across portions of Texas into the Lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Damaging winds, large hail, and a
couple of tornadoes will be possible.

...Texas to the Lower MS and TN Valleys...

A midlevel shortwave trough will migrate from the central/southern
Rockies to the southern Plains on Wednesday. Strong southwesterly
deep-layer flow will overspread the southern Plains into much of the
southern and eastern U.S. ahead of this feature. At the surface, a
cold front will extend from the upper OH Valley southwestward to
southern AR Wednesday morning, with the western extent of the front
sloped across northeast to southwest TX. Ahead of the front, rich
Gulf moisture will be in place with dewpoints generally in the mid
60s to near 70 across TX into the Lower MS Valley, decreasing with
northeast extent. This will support a corridor of moderate
destabilization ahead of the front from parts of TX into MS where
MLCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg is possible. Instability will be
somewhat less with northeast extent across the TN Valley.

Storm mode is somewhat uncertain Wednesday afternoon. If discrete
cells can develop, steep lapse rates, favorable thermodynamic, elongated/straight hodographs and 45+ kt effective shear magnitudes
suggest supercells with an all-hazards risk will be possible.
However, given deep layer flow parallel to the surface front and a
southward progressing front, convection may tend to become linear
quickly. This would increase damaging wind potential. Given
uncertainty in storm mode, declined introducing a CIG 1 area for
hail. In general, convection should develop during the afternoon and
spread east/southeast with time through the overnight hours, with an
accompany severe risk.

..Leitman.. 05/04/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS03 KWNS 080729
SWODY3
SPC AC 080728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Fri May 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ARK-LA-TEX...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible
Sunday afternoon and evening from parts of west Texas
east-northeastward into the Ark-La-Tex. A marginal severe threat is
expected to develop over parts of the eastern Gulf Coast.

...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex...

At mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward
through the central U.S. on Sunday, as a cold front advances
southward across the southern Plains. South of the front, surface
dewpoints mostly in the 60s F will contribute to moderate
instability by afternoon from a dryline in west Texas
east-northeastward across much of north-central and northeast Texas.
As surface temperatures warm and low-level convergence increases
near the front, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
along the northern edge of the moist airmass during the afternoon
and evening.

Forecast soundings across parts of west and north-central Texas late
Sunday afternoon suggest that MLCAPE will peak in the 2000 to 3500
J/kg range with 0-6 shear around 35 knots. This, combined with
700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km, should be favorable for a
large-hail threat. In addition, steep 0-3 km lapse rates should
support an isolated wind-damage threat, especially if a cold pool
can organize. The cold front position is expected to be a bit
further south than is currently forecast. This projected position is
in relatively good agreement with the most reliable guidance, which
adds confidence in a potential severe threat area in west,
north-central and northeast Texas Sunday afternoon and evening.

...Central and Eastern Gulf Coast...

Westerly mid-level flow is forecast on Sunday across the Gulf Coast
region. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place from the
central Gulf Coast eastward to Florida. Some solutions move a subtle
shortwave trough eastward across the Southeast on Sunday. This would
support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development in the
afternoon near the coast from southeast Louisiana eastward to
southern Georgia and northern Florida. Instability and deep-layer
shear is expected to be strong enough for a marginal severe threat
during the mid to late afternoon.

..Broyles.. 05/08/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS03 KWNS 130730
SWODY3
SPC AC 130729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible
on Friday in parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley.

...Southern and Central Plains/Lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys...

Mid-level flow will be westerly over the central U.S. on Friday.
Within the flow, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move
across the central Plains. At the surface, low-level moisture
advection will result in a pocket of moist air from the central
Plains eastward into the lower Missouri Valley, where surface
dewpoints are forecast to be in the mid to upper 60s F. Within this
moist airmass, moderate instability is expected to be in place by
afternoon. A dryline is forecast to develop on the western edge of
the low-level moisture, from north-central Oklahoma into central
Kansas. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form to
the east of the dryline during the late afternoon and early evening.
Additional storms are expected to form further east into eastern
Kansas and Missouri, along the northern edge of a low-level jet.

Late Friday afternoon, forecast soundings in the Kansas City area
show a favorable thermodynamic environment for severe storms. MLCAPE
is forecast to be in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range with 700-500 mb
lapse rates near 8 C/km. In addition, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be
in the 30 to 35 knot range. This environment will be favorable for
supercells with large hail and wind damage. An isolated severe
threat may also develop eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley and southwestward into north-central Oklahoma. Instability is expected
to be somewhat weaker in these two areas, which should keep any
severe threat more isolated and marginal.

..Broyles.. 05/13/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS03 KWNS 140746
SWODY3
SPC AC 140745

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY...

CORRECTED FOR WORDING

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of large to very large hail, wind damage and
tornadoes will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening across
parts of the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley.
Hailstones up to 3 inches in diameter and a strong tornado will be
possible.

...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley...

An upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the western U.S.
on Saturday, as mid-level flow becomes southwesterly over the
central states. At the surface, a low will deepen in the central
High Plains, as a moist airmass remains in place from the southern
and central Plains eastward into the Mississippi Valley. A shortwave
trough is forecast to move into the central High Plains Saturday
afternoon. Ahead of the trough, thunderstorms are expected to form
in far eastern Colorado during the mid to late afternoon. These
storms are forecast to expand in coverage and move eastward across
the central Plains in the late afternoon and early evening, where
severe storm development will be possible.

By late afternoon, an axis of moderate to strong instability is
forecast from west-central Kansas east-northeastward across northern
Kansas, southeast Nebraska into far northwestern Missouri. Forecast
soundings near this axis of instability in far northern Kansas at
00Z, have MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear
around 50 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This
environment will be favorable for supercells with large to very
large hail. The more intense supercell updrafts may be capable of
hailstones up to 3 inches in diameter. By early evening, a 40 to 50
knot low-level jet is forecast to develop from northwest Oklahoma
into southern Kansas. At this time, NAM forecast soundings increase
0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 300 to 400 m2/s2 range
across parts of northern Kansas. However, other model solutions keep
this low-level jet further south in the early evening, suggesting
there is uncertainty concerning severe threat coverage and
magnitude. At this time, there does appears to be potential for
tornadoes, and possibly a strong tornado. This would be the case if
the more aggressive solutions with the low-level jet pan out. Severe
wind gusts will also be possible with supercells. During the
evening, the current thinking is that a severe convective cluster
will move east-northeastward from the central Plains into the lower
to mid Missouri Valley, where large hail and severe wind gusts will
be possible.

...Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys...

West to west-southwest mid-level flow will be in place from the
Great Lakes southward into the Ohio Valley on Saturday. A subtle
shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward into the mid
Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough, low-level moisture
advection will take place, with surface dewpoints likely increasing
into the mid 60s F over much of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the late
afternoon along the leading edge of the shortwave trough, with
storms moving eastward across the region during the evening.
Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast over an unstable airmass with
steep lapse rates. This should support an isolated severe threat
with damaging wind gusts and hail possible.

..Broyles.. 05/14/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS03 KWNS 280731
SWODY3
SPC AC 280730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms, some possibly severe with wind and hail potential,
are expected over parts of the Plains states on Saturday. The most
concentrated area is forecast to be over western Nebraska and South Dakota.

...Northern High Plains...

An upper low/shortwave trough will eject in negative tilt fashion
across the northern Rockies on Saturday, with a lobe of stronger
winds aloft across the area. Midlevel temperatures will be cool,
with -12 or colder at 500 mb. This, combined with an influx of low
60s F dewpoints into western SD and NE, will support moderate
instability. Further, surface winds will be backed to southeasterly,
as will winds at 850 mb, helping to transport moisture westward and
enhance storm relative inflow. Storms appear likely to form during
the late afternoon within the surface trough, with large hail and
perhaps brief tornado potential. Then, storms will likely merge into
a forward-propagating cluster or MCS, with damaging winds into the evening.

...KS/OK/TX...

At least isolated severe activity appears possible Saturday
afternoon, including hail and damaging wind threat, as a moist and
unstable air mass develops. While the main upper wave will be well
to the north, cool midlevel temperatures will remain over the
region, which when combined with upper 60s F dewpoints and daytime
heating, will result in 2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE. A surface trough and
dryline are forecast to extend from central KS into western OK and
northwest TX, and surface convergence may be sufficient to support
sporadic cell development by late afternoon. Forecast soundings
indicate veering but weak shear profiles, however, slow-moving
supercells may occur with large hail and locally severe gusts.

..Jewell.. 05/28/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS03 KWNS 310730
SWODY3
SPC AC 310729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are
expected on Tuesday across parts of the northern High Plains. Strong
wind gusts and hail will be possible in parts of the southern and
central High Plains, and along the eastern Gulf Coast.

...High Plains...

At mid-levels, a low and an associated shortwave trough will move
slowly eastward from the northern Rockies into the northern High
Plains on Tuesday. Ahead of the trough, southeasterly mid-level flow
will be in place over the top of a moist airmass in the northern
Plains. Surface dewpoints from the mid 50s to lower 60s F will
contribute the development of moderate instability across much of
the moist sector by afternoon. Model forecasts focus a zone of
maximized low-level convergence in the afternoon, ahead of a cold
front moving through the western Dakotas. Near this convergence
zone, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and move east-northeastward into the warm sector during the late afternoon
and early evening.

Ahead of the front, forecast soundings near Bismarck in the late
afternoon have MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear around 35
knots. This will support a potential for supercells with large hail.
In addition, 0-3 km lapse rates are forecast to become very steep in
the late afternoon, which will coincide with relatively large temperature-dewpoint spreads. This will be favorable for severe wind
gusts. The severe threat is expected to continue into the early to
mid evening as multiple storms move eastward into the central Dakotas.

Further south into parts of the southern and central High Plains, a
moist and unstable airmass will be in place beneath considerably
weaker mid-level flow. In most areas, large-scale ascent will remain
limited. However, a few storms could develop along zones of
maximized low-level convergence. These storms will likely have
access to moderate instability and enough deep-layer shear for an
isolated severe threat. A few strong wind gusts and hail will be possible.

...Eastern Gulf Coast...

An upper-level trough will move south-southeastward across the
southern U.S. on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast
to advance southward across southern Alabama and southern Georgia
during the day. South of the front, moderate instability is expected
to develop as surface temperatures warm. Steepening low-level lapse
rates in the afternoon should support an isolated wind-damage threat
with storms that form near and ahead of the front.

..Broyles.. 05/31/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS03 KWNS 020729
SWODY3
SPC AC 020727

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...MUCH OF SOUTH DAKOTA...AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds are
possible from parts of the northern High Plains into lower
elevations of the northern and central Plains Thursday afternoon
into night. More isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging
winds appear possible in parts of the upper Midwest and upper Great Lakes.

...Synopsis...

A mid/upper-level low over southern Manitoba Thursday morning is
forecast to move into Ontario ahead of a weakening short-wave trough translating from the northern Rockies into northern Plains. A
separate disturbance is expected to progress through the central
Plains. In the low levels, a surface low will track from southern
Manitoba into northwest Ontario while a trailing cold front advances
through the upper MS Valley into the upper Great Lakes. The trailing
extension of the boundary will link with a surface low over eastern WY.

...Northern High Plains into the upper Great Lakes...

The synoptic front and low-level upslope flow north of the boundary
in the northern High Plains will be the main foci for strong to
severe thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon into night. The
most favorable overlap of steep lapse rates, moderate instability,
and modestly strong vertical shear is expected to reside in those
same areas from the northern High Plains east into the mid MO Valley.

Aided by forcing for ascent associated with weakening short-wave
trough, diurnally enhanced thunderstorm development is anticipated
Thursday afternoon from portions of eastern MT into western SD, near
and to the north of the stalled surface front. The environment
appears supportive of supercell storm modes capable of large to very
large hail initially, especially across western SD. Some model
guidance suggests that the initial discrete storms may grow upscale
into a forward-propagating MCS that would advance east across SD
Thursday night with an associated risk for severe wind gusts.

A potentially separate strong to severe storm regime may materialize
Thursday afternoon and evening across portions of central and
eastern NE into western IA in association with the lower-latitude
disturbance moving through those areas. Vertical shear will be
weaker than locations farther to the northwest; however, the
presence of a moderately unstable air mass may support isolated
occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts.

Isolated to widely scattered, strong to severe storms may also
develop along the cold front across parts of the upper Great Lakes
into upper Midwest Thursday afternoon and evening with an associated
damaging wind and/or large hail risk.

..Mead.. 06/02/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS03 KWNS 030849
SWODY3
SPC AC 030848

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...

CORRECTED FOR ERRONEOUS GEOGRAPHICAL REFERENCE

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail,
damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are expected
Friday afternoon into night across portions of the upper Midwest
into central Plains.

...Synopsis...

The primary upper-air feature of interest Friday is a short-wave
trough, which is forecast to amplify while progressing from the
northern Plains into the upper MS Valley and upper Midwest. A cold
front associated with at upper-air system is expected to stretch
from the upper Midwest through the mid MO Valley into the central
High Plains by mid afternoon. That boundary is expected to serve as
the focus for strong to severe thunderstorm development from
afternoon into Friday night.

...Upper Midwest into the Central Plains...

Areas of thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across parts of
the Midwest and possibly northern Plains, with that activity
expected to decrease in areal coverage through the morning. However,
residual cloudiness and convective outflow may slow the
destabilization process in areas where the storms linger the
longest. Outside of those areas, model guidance indicates the
development of moderate to strong instability within the pre-frontal
warm sector by mid to late afternoon.

Height falls/forcing for ascent associated with the migratory
short-wave trough coupled with low-level convergence along the
synoptic front and any remnant outflow boundaries are expected to
contribute to an areal increase in storms during the afternoon and
evening hours. An associated risk for at least isolated severe
weather appears possible in parts of the northern and central Plains
into the upper Midwest and upper Great Lakes region. Within that
broader envelope, a potentially more concentrated zone of severe
storms may materialize in the vicinity of the synoptic front from
parts of western WI and southern MN into central and eastern NE.
There, a favorable overlap of 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and the
moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop, supporting
organized storm modes capable of mainly large to very large hail and
damaging wind gusts. Some increase in low-level shear is forecast
across the mid MO Valley Friday evening, conditionally supporting
some tornado risk.

..Mead.. 06/03/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS03 KWNS 040728
SWODY3
SPC AC 040727

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OHIO...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...NORTHEAST MONTANA...AND
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are
possible from portions of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the
Northeast, and over the northern High Plains.

...Synopsis...

A short-wave trough and attending belt of 40-50 kt mid-level winds
initially over the Great Lakes will overspread the Northeast and
Mid-Atlantic Saturday into Saturday night. Meanwhile, an intense
upstream trough is forecast to move through the Canadian Rockies and
Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies, with downstream height
falls and strengthening mid/upper-level winds advancing into the
northern High Plains. Elsewhere, a mid-level low initially centered
along the NM-TX state line is expected to evolve into an open wave
while lifting northeast across the central and southern Plains.

At the surface, a cold front will push through the Great Lakes, New
England, and OH Valley during the forecast period, while a lee
cyclone deepens along a cold front moving through the northern High Plains.

...Great Lakes and OH Valley into the Northeast...

A westerly low-level jet will advect an increasingly moist air mass
through the Great Lakes and OH Valley into the Northeast ahead of
the cold front on Saturday. The moisture increase will combine with
daytime heating to support a moderately unstable environment across
the OH Valley, with instability diminishing with northeastward
extent into New England. Thunderstorms are expected to increase in
coverage and intensity through the afternoon ahead of the short-wave
trough, and amidst a kinematic environment featuring 30-40 kt of
deep-layer shear. The most favorable overlap of stronger
instability, vertical shear, and forcing for ascent is expected to
materialize across the upper OH Valley Saturday afternoon, where
supercells will be possible with a higher-probability risk for large
hail and damaging winds. Elsewhere, isolated occurrences of large
hail and/or damaging wind will be possible during the afternoon and
evening hours.

...Northern High Plains...

The presence of steep lapse rates and increasing boundary-layer
moisture content are expected to contribute to a moderate to
strongly unstable air mass by afternoon ahead of the surface low and
cold front over eastern MT and western ND. Moisture wrapping around
the surface low is expected to reach into the high terrain of
central MT, supporting at least modest destabilization there.
Initial, isolated storms are expected in the post-frontal, upslope
environment in central MT Saturday afternoon, with storms
potentially not developing until Saturday evening in the vicinity of
the front in eastern MT and western ND, due to late-arriving forcing
for ascent. Vertical shear will strengthen through the day with the
kinematic environment favoring supercell storm modes with the
primary hazard being large hail.

...Southern Plains....

The models indicate a band of 30-35 kt mid-level winds developing
within the southeast quadrant of the upper low from southwest TX
into the Red River Valley Saturday afternoon. As a result, vertical
shear will be enhanced in those areas; however, the primary
uncertainty regarding some severe-storm threat is the effect of
early-day storms on afternoon air mass destabilization.

..Mead.. 06/04/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS03 KWNS 050736
SWODY3
SPC AC 050735

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0235 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail and
severe wind gusts are possible across the northern Plains. More
isolated severe storms capable locally damaging wind gusts may occur
across portions of the Mid-Atlantic.

...Synopsis...

A vorticity maximum and associated jet streak within the base of
broader-scale troughing from the lee of the Canadian Rockies into
northern Intermountain Region Sunday morning are forecast to
translate into the northern High Plains by Sunday night. Meanwhile,
a short-wave trough will progress from the lower Great Lakes through
southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic in tandem with a 40-50 kt
wind maximum in the mid levels. At the surface, an area of low
pressure and associated front are expected to remain
quasi-stationary over the western Dakotas Sunday, prior to advancing
slowly east Sunday night. Elsewhere, a cold front will move through
the Mid-Atlantic Sunday afternoon.

...Northern Plains...

A hot, pre-frontal air mass is expected to develop Sunday afternoon
with steep lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 50s to
low 60s contributing to moderate instability. Wrap-around moisture
on the backside of the surface front will support air mass
destabilization across portions of eastern MT into northeast WY as
well. The models suggest potentially separate severe thunderstorm
regimes evolving across the region Sunday afternoon and evening.
Isolated storms appear possible along favored terrain of central MT
into northeast WY, aided by increasing height falls downstream from
the approaching vorticity maximum and jet streak. Additional storms
appear possible along the surface front across the western Dakotas
as the strong boundary-layer heating erodes the capping.

Strengthening vertical shear will support supercells capable of
mainly large hail in post-frontal regime, and large to very large
hail and severe wind gusts within the pre-frontal warm sector.
Low-level shear is forecast to strengthen during the evening;
however, relatively high LCLs are expected to limit a robust tornado
threat. The severe-weather threat may continue into Sunday night,
especially across western and central ND.

...Mid-Atlantic...

Daytime heating and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s are expected
to support moderate afternoon instability ahead of the cold front.
Latest model guidance suggests that isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms will develop along the boundary, aided by forcing for
ascent associated with the short-wave trough. Forecast soundings
indicate largely unidirectional wind profiles with 30-40 kt of
deep-layer shear, which would favor some cold pool organization with
an associated risk for locally damaging wind gusts into early evening.

..Mead.. 06/05/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS03 KWNS 110726
SWODY3
SPC AC 110724

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered to scattered severe storms capable of all hazards
appear possible Saturday afternoon and evening across portions of
the central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley. More isolated
severe weather appears possible across the upper Great Lakes, Ozark
Plateau, and southern Plains.

...Synopsis...

A short-wave trough initially from the upper MS Valley into northern
Rockies is forecast to amplify while pivoting east/southeast through
the upper Midwest and mid/lower MO Valleys. That system will be
attended by a belt of 50-60+ kt winds in the mid-levels, which are
expected to extend from the mid MO Valley into the Great Lakes
Saturday afternoon into night. At the surface, a cold front
initially from the upper Midwest to low pressure over KS Saturday
morning, will progress through the upper Great Lakes, mid/lower MO
Valleys, and central Plains during the forecast period.

...Upper Great Lakes into Central and Southern Plains...

The potential for early-day storms across portions of the mid MO
Valley into the Ozark Plateau increases uncertainty in the location
of afternoon/evening storms, as well as the distribution of
instability across the region. Latest ensemble guidance indicates
the highest likelihood for moderate to strong instability across
portions of the central and southern Plains with greater spread in
instability farther north across the upper Midwest into upper Great Lakes.

Current thinking is that diurnally enhanced thunderstorms appear
most likely to the northeast of the KS surface low northeast along
the adjacent segment of the front with lesser confidence in storm
coverage with northeastward extent into the upper Great Lakes.
Deep-layer shear is expected to be sufficiently strong for organized
storm modes, including supercells from the central Plains into the
upper Great Lakes with decreasing amounts of vertical shear into the
southern Plains. Highest confidence in a more concentrated
severe-weather episode remains centered across the central Plains
into the lower MO Valley, where all hazards appear possible. Storms
may eventually grow upscale into one or multiple complexes Saturday
evening into night from the mid MS Valley through Ozark Plateau into
the southern Plains.

..Mead.. 06/11/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS03 KWNS 120654
SWODY3
SPC AC 120653

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the
Mid-Atlantic on Sunday.

...Synopsis...

An upper shortwave trough will pivot across the Great Lakes to the
Northeast on Sunday. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced
southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread much of the
northeastern U.S. At the surface, a cold front will be oriented from
Ohio to the Mid-South, then westward into north/central TX by
mid/late afternoon. A seasonally moist airmass will be in place
ahead of the front. Pockets of moderate to strong instability will
develop across parts of the southern Plains vicinity as the cold
front develops southward through the period. Additional areas of
moderate to strong destabilization are possible across the
Mid-Atlantic vicinity.

...Mid-Atlantic...

Currently, the best overlap of enhanced west/southwesterly shear and
MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg appears to be across the Mid-Atlantic from
eastern VA into southeast PA/southern NJ within a moist axis and
pre-frontal surface trough. Scattered thunderstorms may develop
within this area during peak heating and pose a risk mainly for
damaging gusts. Stronger southwesterly flow aloft is expected with
northward extent into PA/NY and portions of New England. However,
degree of destabilization is uncertain due to cloud cover and
possible remnant convection over the Ohio Valley from the Day
2/Saturday period moving across the Upper Ohio Valley early in the
period ahead of the surface cold front. Depending on model trends
and mesoscale details emanating from prior day convection, severe
probability could be adjusted northward in subsequent outlooks.

...Southeast NM into the ArkLaTex...

Convection will develop near the southward-advancing surface front
during the afternoon within a very moist and moderately unstable
airmass. Convection may tend to be anafrontal, and storms could
quickly become undercut by the front. Nevertheless, isolated strong
gusts and hail will be possible with stronger storms.

..Leitman.. 06/12/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS03 KWNS 160727
SWODY3
SPC AC 160726

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KENTUCKY AND
NORTHERN TENNESSEE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible from
Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic. Damaging wind gusts will be the main
hazard with this activity.

...Synopsis...

A series of embedded midlevel shortwave troughs will migrate through
broad upper troughing and strong southwesterly deep-layer flow from
the Great Lakes to the Northeast. At the surface, low pressure over
southern Ontario will develop northeast along the St. Lawrence
Valley and a trailing cold front will extend southwest from the
Lower Great Lakes to northern OK and the TX Panhandle during the
morning. This front will sag south/southeast through the period,
becoming oriented from the Mid-Atlantic coast to central TX by
Friday morning. A very moist airmass will reside south of the front, particularly from the southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. Moderate
to strong destabilization will develop across parts of the Plains
into the Ohio Valley, with more modest instability with northeast
extent into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

...Ohio Valley to Mid-Atlantic and Northeast...

Very strong west/southwesterly mid/upper flow is expected to reside
across the Northeast on Thursday, decreasing with southwest extent
into the Ohio Valley. Convection may be ongoing near the surface
front and within the broad warm advection regime ahead of the
boundary Thursday morning, especially across the Northeast. This
will likely temper destabilization across portions of PA/NY and
points northeastward. Nevertheless, intense deep-layer flow will
still support strong to severe wind gusts with convection through
early evening. Richer boundary layer moisture will be in place from
TN/KY into the Mid-Atlantic, fostering strong destabilization.
Clusters and line segments will pose a risk for mainly damaging gusts.

...OK/TX to the Mid-South...

A belt of strong instability is forecast ahead of the southward
sagging cold front Thursday afternoon. This area will be further
removed from stronger mid/upper southwesterly flow. But, ample
instability, modest effective shear, and high PWs supporting water
laden downdrafts will result in a marginal severe risk for damaging
winds within thunderstorm clusters/bands.

...Southeast...

The remnants of a tropical disturbance is expected to migrate across
portions of the Gulf Coast states on Thursday. A very moist and
moderately unstable airmass will be in place. The remnant low may
serve to locally enhance vertical shear, resulting in an
accompanying risk for strong wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two.

..Leitman.. 06/16/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS03 KWNS 180620
SWODY3
SPC AC 180619

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central
Plains vicinity from Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening.

...Central Plains...

An upper ridge will initially be centered over the High Plains on
Saturday. An upper shortwave trough over the eastern Great Basin
will develop eastward, emerging over the central Rockies and
adjacent High Plains by 00z, and breaking down upper ridging. As
this occurs, mid/upper level flow will increase and a lee low will
deepen in the vicinity of eastern CO. A surface trough/dryline will
extend southward near the CO/KS border and along the NM/TX border.
Increasing south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport rich
boundary layer moisture (mid/upper 60s F dewpoints) northward across
KS, with low to mid 60s F dewpoints possible across much of NE.
Steep midlevel lapse rates atop the moistening boundary layer will
result in a moderate destabilization (MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/kg) across
the central High Plains and portions of central/eastern NE/KS.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within
upslope flow along the surface trough from far southeast WY into
eastern CO. As storms develop east/southeast with time, an
increasing southerly low-level jet may foster upscale development
into one or more bowing segments. Overall, supercell wind profiles
suggest large hail and perhaps tornadoes will be possible. If storms
grow upscale, damaging wind potential will increase during the evening.

..Leitman.. 06/18/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)