ACUS02 KWNS 200549
SWODY2
SPC AC 200547

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible across the western CONUS, the
south-central CONUS, and the southern Great Lakes on Tuesday.
Potential for severe weather appears low.

... Synopsis ...

Midlevel ridging will be in place from the eastern Great Basin into
the Plains at the start of the forecast period, while persistent
northwesterly flow aloft continues across the Upper Midwest and Ohio
Valley. Farther west, an upper trough will gradually advanced inland
across California into the Great Basin by the end of the period.

At the surface, a broad area of high pressure centered over the
Southeast and adjacent Atlantic will maintain southerly flow across
the central US. This will promote a gradual moisture recovery across
the central Plains into the southern Great Lakes. A weak frontal
boundary pushing south through portions of the central Plains and
Great Lakes will denote the northern edge of the moisture return.

... Lower Great Lakes ...

Thunderstorm development along the frontal zone may be delayed until
later in the day or evening as moisture slowly returns northward.
While relatively cold temperatures aloft should support steep lapse
rates, the quality and depth of the boundary-layer moisture is
expected to be the biggest unknown. The NAM is the most aggressive
with the depth and quality of the moisture return, and if moisture
quality is close to what is shown in the NAM, enough instability
should materialize to take advantage of the stronger vertical shear
to support a few organized cells capable of gusty winds or small
hail. However, most model guidance is less aggressive with the
quality of the moisture return so no probabilities have been added
at this time.

... South-central US ...

Convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast
period. Modest vertical shear and elevated instability may support a
couple strong thunderstorms capable of hail and gusty winds.
However, overall thunderstorm intensity should wane through much of
the period as upper ridging overspreads the region.

... Western US ...

As the upper trough moves inland, ascent will increase across the
Pacific Northwest, northern California, and portions of the Great
Basin. Within the Central Valley and nearby terrain, pockets of
diurnal heating, combined with cool midlevel temperatures may
support isolated thunderstorm development during the afternoon.
Despite this modest instability, weak vertical shear should limit
any organized severe potential.

..Marsh.. 04/20/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 230601
SWODY2
SPC AC 230600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scatteed severe thunderstorms are possible Friday from the Southern
Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Large hail and damaging
winds will be the main hazards, with a brief tornado also possible.
Isolated strong wind gusts may occur across portions of the lower
Ohio Valley as well.

... Synopsis ...

Broad cyclonic flow will persist across much of the central and
western US as a longwave trough remains anchored over the northern
states. In the absences of stronger large-scale ascent across the
southern US, convective evolution will be driven primarily by
remnant boundaries and subtle perturbations within the broader
cyclonic flow.

... Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley ...

Convection is expected to be ongoing from portions of Oklahoma into
Arkansas and Missouri at the start of the forecast period, largely
tied to a convectively augmented cold front. This activity may still
be capable of producing isolated strong wind gusts early in the
period, but should gradually weaken through the morning as the
low-level jet dissipates and the parent shortwave trough moves away
from the region.

The primary severe threat is expected to develop from afternoon into
the evening along the effective frontal zone and any residual
outflow or differential heating boundaries. Current guidance
suggests the boundary will settle near or south of the I-40
corridor, though some uncertainty in the exact location remains.
Notably, the HRRR is an outlier in maintaining a farther north and
west boundary as compared to other members of the 20260423/00Z HREF.

By afternoon, strong heating south of the boundary will support a
moderately to strongly unstable airmass (SBCAPE values in the
2000-3000 J/kg range) from central/east Texas northward toward the
boundary, with instability gradually decreasing with eastward extent
into Mississippi and Alabama. Deep-layer shear will remain modest
across the region (generally 30-35 knots), supporting organized
multicells and occasional transient supercells.

Thunderstorms should develop/intensify from eastern Oklahoma into
Arkansas along one or more of boundaries across the region. Initial
storms may pose a threat for large hail and localized damaging wind
gusts as low-level shear will generally remain weak. However,
localized enhancements along boundaries or any MCV could support a
brief tornado risk.

With time, storm interactions and consolidating outflows should
support upscale growth into one or more clusters or linear MCS
structures. These systems should move east-southeast into northern
Louisiana and central Mississippi through the afternoon and evening
hours. While the modest deep-layer shear may temper the overall wind
threat somewhat, sufficient organization should still support a
corridor of damaging wind gusts.

Farther west into central and eastern Texas, isolated convection may
occur along a dryline as diurnal heating weakens inhibition to the
east. Storm coverage is expected to remain sparse given weak ascent,
but any sustained updrafts in this strongly unstable environment
could produce large hail.

... Portions of the Ohio Valley ...

A separate corridor of thunderstorms may develop during the
afternoon across portions of the eastern Indiana and western Ohio
in the wake of earlier convection. Modest destabilization should
occur with perhaps up to 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE. Although the low-level
jet will be weakening through the day, residual flow and modest
deep-layer shear may support loosely organized convection capable of
producing damaging wind gusts.

..Marsh.. 04/23/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 280529
SWODY2
SPC AC 280527

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS THROUGH
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU INTO
MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered strong to severe storms may impact a corridor from
south of the Texas Big Bend through the north central Gulf Coast
vicinity Wednesday afternoon into evening, with additional strong
storms posing at least some risk for severe weather across the
Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic.

...Discussion...
Models still indicate that mid-level ridging will build inland
across the Canadian Rockies/Pacific Northwest through this period,
but it appears that attempts at a developing embedded high near the
Pacific Northwest coast will become suppressed by a short wave
impulse within the westerlies approaching the British Columbia
coast. Farther south, a mid-level low merging into a belt of
westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific may
accelerate toward southern California/northern Baja coastal areas,
but models continue to substantively vary concerning this motion.

A downstream subtropical high, initially centered over southern
Mexico, may undergo at least some further southwestward suppression,
but it still may maintain considerable influence as far north as
southern Texas through Texas Gulf coast Wednesday through Wednesday
night. At the same time, in higher latitudes, large-scale troughing encompassing much of north central and northeastern North America is
forecast to continue slowly digging toward the northern/mid Atlantic
Seaboard. A broad embedded cyclonic mid-level circulation may begin
to form near/north of the Great Lakes region.

The confluent mid-level regime across and east of the Rockies will
likely support southeastward development of cool surface ridging
across much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, in the wake
of a southeastward advancing cold front. Models generally suggest
that a modest surface low evolving along this front may migrate
from the lower Ohio Valley northeastward through the lower Great
Lakes region, with a modest secondary surface low forming along a
developing warm front to the east of the Blue Ridge by late
Wednesday afternoon into evening, but there is notable spread within
the guidance concerning this evolution.

...Lower Rio Grande Valley into north central Gulf Coast...

Uncertainties abound concerning the convective potential for this
period. The continuing presence of mid-level ridging and warm
elevated mixed-layer air may be inhibitive to more than isolated
sustained thunderstorm development east of the Rio Grande River, to
the south of Del Rio, through much of Deep South Texas. Across the
upper Texas coastal plain through much of the Gulf Coast states,
conglomerate convective outflow from thunderstorm activity today
through tonight may slow destabilization ahead of the southward
advancing cold front, and there is spread concerning where this
outflow may end up by 12Z Wednesday.

Still, subtle short wave perturbations within moderate to strong west-northwesterly mid/upper flow, near/north of the periphery of
the subtropical ridging, may provide support for thunderstorm
initiation with boundary-layer destabilization. Guidance suggests
that this may include at least pockets of moderate CAPE, sufficient
for isolated to widely scattered intense convection which could
evolve into supercells and/or small organized clusters with
potential to produce severe hail and wind.

...Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic...

Given the spread among the latest model output concerning the
initial surface frontal low migrating through the Ohio Valley, and
the developing surface troughing/warm front to the east of the Blue
Ridge, substantial uncertainty remains concerning the convective
potential for this period. Remnant convective cloud cover and rain overspreading the region early in the day may also impede
destabilization. However, with at least weak to moderate
boundary-layer destabilization, strengthening wind fields and
forcing for ascent associated with an approaching mid-level jet
could become conducive to organized severe storm development. This
may initiate west of the Allegheny Mountains, and include potential
for evolving supercell structures, before developing to the east of
the Blue Ridge by late Wednesday afternoon into evening.

..Kerr.. 04/28/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 030505
SWODY2
SPC AC 030503

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1203 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
Midwest late Monday afternoon into Monday night.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough will dig southward across the northern Plains/Upper
Midwest on Monday. At the same time, a upper low near CA and
attendant trough will pivot eastward toward the Southwest. At the
surface, low pressure over Ontario will develop northeast toward
James Bay while a trailing cold front moves southeast across the northern/central Plains and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity.
Meanwhile, a second surface low is forecast to deepen in the
vicinity of western KS/OK with a dryline extending southward across
central KS/western OK and west-central TX. Modest southerly return
flow will transport mainly 50s to near 60 F dewpoints northward
across OK/eastern KS into MO. More modest boundary layer moisture is
expected ahead of the cold front across portions of the Midwest.

...Eastern KS toward Lake Michigan and western OH...

Modest boundary layer moisture and uncertainty in timing/location of
the surface front contribute to uncertainty in severe potential for
Monday. Nevertheless, cool temperatures aloft will support steep
midlevel lapse rates and a corridor of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE appears
likely ahead of the front. A lead shortwave impulse will migrate
across the OH Valley during the day. This may provide sufficient
forcing for ascent for isolated thunderstorm development within an
uncapped and modestly sheared airmass. Strong storms could produce
small hail and gusty winds. Additional strong storms are possible
during the afternoon further to the northwest near the surface front
from eastern IA toward Lake Michigan. However, boundary layer
moisture will likely be even more limited across this area, leading
to weaker instability. Nevertheless, a well mixed boundary layer
could support strong wind gusts.

Stronger ascent will arrive after 00z across the central Plains and
Mid-MS Valley vicinity in tandem with an increasing southwesterly
low-level jet. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the triple
points in central/eastern KS and into MO as the surface cold front
drops southward. This activity may pose a risk for hail and strong gusts.

...Southwest OK vicinity...

Some forecast guidance develops thunderstorms near the dryline late afternoon/early evening across the southwest OK vicinity. Large
scale ascent will remain nebulous across the region and capping may
preclude thunderstorm development. However, strong heating west of
the dryline and strong convergence in model guidance are noted. If a
storm could break the cap, a severe risk could develop. However, coverage/temporal risk would likely be limited and confidence in
this scenario is low, precluding severe probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 05/03/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 101722
SWODY2
SPC AC 101720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts and hail are
possible Monday afternoon across parts of the Southeast.

... Overview ...

As a western midlevel ridge amplifies, a midlevel shortwave trough
will slowly progress southeast across eastern Texas into Louisiana
on Monday. At the same time, a surface cold front will slowly sag
south across the Southeast. Deep-layer ascent associated with the
midlevel vorticity maximum will interact with the trailing portion
of a surface front allowing the development of a surface trough/low
that will move east along the front.

... Southeast US ...

Along and ahead of the surface front, temperatures will warm into
the upper-70Fs to low-80Fs with dewpoint temperatures rising into
the upper-60Fs to low-70Fs. Convergence along the front will result
in scattered thunderstorm development, perhaps by late morning.
Strong cloud-layer shear, tall, skinny buoyancy profiles, and
precipitable water values around 1.75 inches will support a
marginally severe wind threat. Depending on the degree of heating of
the airmass ahead of the front, a marginal hail risk may also
develop. The most likely area for a concentration of wind and hail
occurrence will be where the surface front intersects any inland
moving sea breeze across southern South Carolina, Georgia, and
northern Florida.

Farther west across southeast Louisiana, convective coverage is less
certain. Although scattered thunderstorms will be possible along the
sagging front, additional thunderstorms may develop in response to
the deep-layer ascent with the midlevel vorticity maximum and
inverted trough/surface low. However, there is significant
disagreement within the 20260510/12Z HREF guidance as to the
coverage of any convection. Given the presence of a midlevel
vorticity maximum and a surface boundary, will lean toward the
wetter solutions. A similar kinematic and thermodynamic environment
will exist here as farther east, supporting primarily a marginal
wind threat.

..Marsh.. 05/10/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 110555
SWODY2
SPC AC 110553

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA NORTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST INDIANA AND FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with strong wind gusts and hail will be
possible on Tuesday from parts of southeast Kansas and far
northeastern Oklahoma northeastward into northern Illinois,
northwest Indiana and far southeast Wisconsin.

...Central Plains/Mid Mississippi Valley/Southwest Great Lakes...

At mid-levels, a shortwave trough and an associated jet streak will
move southeastward through the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. At the
surface, a low will move southeastward across Wisconsin as a cold
front advances southeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi
Valley. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the front in the
afternoon as surface heating takes place and low-level convergence
becomes more focused. The storms are forecast to move toward an
instability axis located from southeast Kansas to north-central
Illinois. Along this axis of instability, MLCAPE is forecast to
increase into the 500 to 1500 J/kg range by late afternoon with 0-6
km shear mostly in the 45 to 55 knot range. Low-level lapse rates
are also forecast to become steep just ahead of the front. This
environment should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat, with
hail and strong wind gusts possible. The strongest instability and
steepest mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be further southwest
into parts of southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas, where a
locally greater hail threat will be possible in the late afternoon.

..Broyles.. 05/11/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 120541
SWODY2
SPC AC 120539

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts are expected on
Wednesday across parts of the Ohio Valley, central Appalachians,
northern Rockies and Great Basin. Hail will also be possible in
parts of western Montana.

...Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians...

An upper-level trough will move east-southeastward across the Great
Lakes on Wednesday, as an associated mid-level jet streak translates southeastward into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a low will move
eastward across southwestern Ontario as a cold front advances east-southeastward into the central Appalachians. Ahead of the
front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 50s F will contribute
to weak instability as surface temperatures warm during the day.
Increasing low-level convergence near the front will lead to
scattered thunderstorm development, with additional storms forming
due to topographic forcing in the central Appalachians. Ahead of the
front, low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to become steep in
the afternoon peaking in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range, which should
support a threat for isolated severe wind gusts.

...Northern Rockies/Great Basin...

At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move through the northwestern
U.S. on Wednesday as a 60 to 80 knot jet streak passes eastward into
the northern Rockies. At the surface, a trough will develop from
western Montana southward into Idaho and Utah, ahead of a cold front
passing through the Pacific Northwest. Near the surface trough, an
axis of instability will be in place by afternoon as surface
temperatures warm into the 80s F. In response, thunderstorms will
form in the higher terrain from western Montana southward into the
deserts of eastern Idaho and northern Utah. Near the instability
axis, low to mid-level lapse rates will be very steep likely
exceeding 9 C/km. This will support a threat for isolated severe
wind gusts. Hail could also occur in the northern Rockies.

..Broyles.. 05/12/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 190549
SWODY2
SPC AC 190548

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorm activity across the Mid-Atlantic region
Wednesday may pose a risk for severe wind and hail. Large hail will
be possible with isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms
developing over the southern High Plains into southwest Texas.

...Synopsis...
A trough will continue to lift northward into Canada D2/Wednesday,
with a cold front extending from the Northeast southward across the
southern Ohio Valley into the lower Mississippi Valley and westward
into southwestern Texas and eastern New Mexico. Scattered strong to
severe storms are expected near the front in the mid Atlantic and
near the high terrain of western Texas.

...Mid-Atlantic...

Scattered showers and storms are expected along the cold front
Wednesday afternoon across portions of the Mid-Atlantic. The
downstream air mass will include a narrow plume of weak to moderate instability. Though deep layer shear and mid-level lapse rates will
be marginal, steep low level lapse rates will support a few
instances of strong to severe winds.

...Southwest Texas and eastern New Mexico...

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
near the high terrain within the upslope flow regime across western
Texas and eastern New Mexico Wednesday afternoon. Forecast soundings
depict sufficient deep layer shear to support supercells. Moderate
to strong instability and steep low to mid-level lapse rates will
support potential for large hail and a few occurrences of severe winds.

..Thornton.. 05/19/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 200554
SWODY2
SPC AC 200552

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND THE FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the central and
southern High Plains Thursday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave will translate eastward across the central
Rockies on D2/Thursday. At the surface, a cold front will move
through the northern High Plains while a secondary stationary front
remains in place from the Carolinas through the Tennessee Valley
into Ozark Plateau. A few strong to severe storms capable of large
hail and damaging wind will be possible near the front range in
Colorado.

...Central and Southern High Plains...
Upslope flow into eastern Colorado will combine with modest
upper-level forcing for ascent to allow for isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms near the high terrain. Steep lapse rates,
MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg, and deep layer shear around 30-35 kts from
south of I-70 will allow for a few better organized cells capable of
large hail and damaging wind. This threat will decrease with eastern
extent into KS/OK where strengthening MLCIN will temper the severe
threat downstream.

Additional areas of scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible
across southern Oklahoma into northern/central Texas and across far
western Texas in the afternoon. Generally weak deep layer shear
should limit the severe risk. A few instances of gusty winds and
small hail will be possible.

...Elsewhere...
Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected across the northern
Rockies into the northern Plains near the upper-low. Weak moisture
and limited instability will likely keep storms sub-severe. Widely
scattered thunderstorms will also be likely south of the stationary
front from the Carolinas into the Tennessee and Mississippi Valleys.
While marginal instability will be in place, weak deep layer shear
profiles will lead to more disorganized storms and limit the overall
severe threat.

..Thornton.. 05/20/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 220559
SWODY2
SPC AC 220558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to potentially severe storms appear possible from
the Raton Mesa vicinity into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles and
southward near the middle Texas Coast. Additional severe
thunderstorms will be possible in portions of central Georgia.

...Synopsis...
A weak impulse will rotate across the central Plains on D2/Saturday
as a surface low moves northward across the Ohio Valley. A trailing
cold front will extend from the surface low back into the southern
Plains. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible
from the central/southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley
and across the Southeast. A few stronger storms may be possible
across portions of the southern Plains and the southeastern US.

...TX/OK Panhandles...

Weak forcing for ascent and easterly upslope flow across the Caprock
and into the higher terrain in eastern New Mexico will produce
scattered thunderstorm activity Saturday afternoon. These are
progged to move eastward downstream across the Panhandles into
portions of western Oklahoma. Forecast soundings suggest a plume of
steep to low mid-level lapse rates will still reside across the
OK/TX Panhandles with mid 50s to 60s dew points and moderate
instability. Shear profiles will be marginal, with deep layer shear
around 25-30 kts. Nonetheless, a few more organized storms may
produce strong to severe wind and instances of severe hail.

...Middle Texas Coast...

Thunderstorm activity is expected to form near the Edwards Plateau
on Saturday afternoon and move south and east towards the middle
Texas coast. Ahead of this, moderate to strong afternoon instability
and steep low to mid-level lapse rates will be in place across
portions of southern Texas. Some enhancement of
deep-layer shear is forecast across south TX, which will may provide opportunity for cold pool organization and damaging wind.

...Central/Southern Georgia...

A weak shortwave will move across Georgia Saturday afternoon as
widely scattered thunderstorm development occurs. Most guidance
suggests deep layer shear around 30-40 kts which may allow for a few
more organized cells. These may produce a few instances of strong to
severe wind.

..Thornton.. 05/22/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 230555
SWODY2
SPC AC 230553

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible from the southern/central Plains to the southeastern US into the lower Ohio
Valley. A few stronger storms may be possible from central Nebraska
into southwest Minnesota.

...Synopsis...
Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are likely south of a
stationary front extending from the southern Plains into the lower
Ohio Valley. A few additional thunderstorms will be possible across
the southern High Plains within the easterly upslope regime. A weak
shortwave trough will move across the central/northern Plains into
the Upper Midwest on D2/Sunday, which may be a focus of thunderstorm development across portions of Nebraska into Minnesota. Large hail
and damaging wind will be the primary threat with these storms.

...Nebraska into Minnesota...

A plume of mid 50s to 60s dew points will advect northward into
portions of eastern Nebraska into southern Minnesota Sunday
afternoon amid increasing southerly flow across the central/northern
Plains. A weak shortwave will move eastward across this area with
thunderstorm development likely by the afternoon. Forecast soundings
suggest that deep layer shear will be sufficient to support
supercells, with around 40 kts in the 0-6 km layer. In addition to
the increase in moisture, steep low to mid-level lapse rates will
also overspread the area. This, in combination with strong deep
layer shear, will favor potential for large hail (isolated very
large hail up to 2" in diameter). Well mixed profiles may also
support a few instances of strong to severe wind.

..Thornton.. 05/23/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 260545
SWODY2
SPC AC 260544

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN MARYLAND...AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong storms are expected primarily over parts of
Virginia and Maryland Wednesday afternoon and early evening. A few
damaging gusts will be possible.

...Synopsis...
Height falls will occur over the northeastern states on Wednesday as
a positive-tilt upper trough moves across the Great Lakes and toward
the Mid Atlantic. This will flatten the upper ridge over the
Southeast, with increasing westerlies aloft. At the surface, a
trough will develop from southern New England into eastern VA, with
strong daytime heating. Dewpoints in the upper 60s F will be common,
aiding instability.

Elsewhere, a deep upper low will be nearly stationary from central
CA into western NV, with a surface trough developing during the
afternoon from UT into southern ID and eastern OR. Strong heating
within this trough may yield scattered thunderstorms moving
northwestward across parts of ID into OR, with locally gusty winds.

Farther north, instability may develop over WI and vicinity, near a southwestward-moving cold front and on the back side of the upper
trough. Isolated strong cells cannot be ruled out with gusty winds.

...Mid Atlantic Region...

Scattered thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of IN/OH/PA
within a warm advection zone with westerly 850 mb winds. This
activity will generally shift east/southeast during the day, as the
air mass ahead of it destabilizes. Possible outflow from this
activity, as well as surface convergence within the heating air mass
should yield additional cells/clusters during the afternoon, moving east/southeast across VA, MD, and northern NC. Though lapse rates
aloft will not be particularly steep, high PWAT along with peak
heating and increasing winds aloft will support storm longevity,
with possible forward-propagating clusters. Increasing deep-layer
shear may also support cellular storm mode. A few strong to severe
wind gusts appear most likely during the late afternoon and early evening.

..Jewell.. 05/26/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 270526
SWODY2
SPC AC 270525

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
OREGON INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON...NORTHERN IDAHO AND NORTHWEST MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday over western
Montana, northern Idaho, and into central Oregon/Washington. A few
damaging gusts or marginal hail will be possible.

...Synopsis & Discussion...
An upper low will move slowly from CA into NV on Thursday, with a
leading midlevel speed max forecast to move from UT northward across
ID, OR and WA. Cooling aloft will occur along with 40-50 kt 500 mb
winds enhancing deep-layer shear. A surface trough will also deepen
during the afternoon roughly from UT into eastern WA, with strong
heating and steepening lapse rates aiding destabilization.

Scattered storms are forecast to develop by early afternoon over
central OR, with additional activity extending northeastward across
northern ID, eastern WA and northwest MT. Though total CAPE values
are questionably high by some models, sufficient instability will
exist, along with favorable large-scale ascent and steep lapse
rates. This will favor northwestward-moving cells and perhaps a few
bows, with at least isolated severe gusts or marginal hail expected.

Elsewhere, scattered storms are likely during the afternoon and
evening from KS/OK into the Southeast. Winds aloft and shear will be
weak across this entire region, and severe storms are largely not
expected. Still, sporadic strong gusts cannot be ruled out.

..Jewell.. 05/27/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 280552
SWODY2
SPC AC 280551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MONTANA...AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A few storms may produce marginal hail or strong gusts from eastern
New Mexico and western Texas across Oklahoma and toward northern
Louisiana on Friday. A few strong to severe storms may also occur
across western Montana with gusty winds and marginal hail. Isolated
damaging wind gusts are also possible across portions of the central
High Plains.

...MT...

An upper low will weaken as it moves from the Great Basin to the
central Rockies, with cool temperatures aloft persisting over much
of the region. A surface trough will deepen over central MT with a
cold front moving across ID and into western MT. Daytime heating and
steepening lapse rates may aid wind gust potential as storms develop
late in the day from western into central MT. Relatively strong
upper-level winds will elongate hodographs, and may support cells
producing marginal hail.

...Central High Plains...

Low-level moisture will spread westward into northern CO and eastern
WY as a low pressure trough develops from MT into eastern CO during
the afternoon. Steep lapse rates and 50s F dewpoints will result in
perhaps 1000 J/kg MUCAPE supporting storms forming from southeast WY
into the Front Range. These storms may produce strong to locally
severe outflow winds.

...Southern Plains...

An upper-level jet of 50-70 kt will move into southern NM and
western TX, though midlevel winds will be at or below 30 kt. Strong
heating will occur over the region while southeast surface winds
maintain moisture influx. Storms should form during the afternoon
from eastern NM and spread across western TX and perhaps into
southwest KS. Cool midlevel temperatures may support marginal hail,
though gusty outflow winds will be the most common threat.
Additionally, a few storms may occur farther east from OK into
northeast TX, AR and LA where dewpoints and instability will be
greater. Any storms that can form within the uncapped air mass would
likely move southeastward with isolated strong gust potential.

..Jewell.. 05/28/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 290608
SWODY2
SPC AC 290606

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN WISCONSIN
INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible from parts of the central High
Plains into the Upper Midwest, and across parts of the Northeast on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
An upper low will be present in the Canadian Prairies with a belt of
stronger mid-level flow extending into the Upper Midwest. The
amplified upper ridge in the Midwest/East will be somewhat
suppressed as a result. A stalled surface boundary will be present
from the central High Plains into the Upper Midwest. Moderate to
strong mid-level northwesterlies will be present across the
Northeast with possible MCVs/shortwaves moving into the region.

...Mid-Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest...
Convection that occurs in Minnesota overnight Monday into early
Tuesday is expected to weaken as it moves eastward. Given the
weakening and veering low-level jet, it does not appear this
activity will have much of an impact on the environment in northern
Wisconsin into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. A stalled surface
boundary will be located from northern Nebraska into Minnesota and
northwest Wisconsin. Very rich moisture (mid/upper 70s F dewpoints)
will exist in the warm sector. With mid-level lapse rates of 7.5-8
C/km, strong to extreme buoyancy will develop by the afternoon. With
the main upper low in the Canadian Prairie, large-scale ascent will
be subtle/nebulous. That said, convective temperatures should be
reached at least locally with additional lift expected from lake
breeze boundaries. Most models, including both global/regional
models and CAMs, suggest development is probable from parts of
northern Wisconsin into the Upper Peninsula. Effective shear of
40-50 kt will promote some storm organization. However, magnitude of
buoyancy along with modest low-level flow will likely result in
storms becoming outflow dominant. A targeted Slight Risk has been
added for this potential. Damaging winds are the most likely hazard
with this activity, but isolated large hail could also occur.

Farther southwest into southern Minnesota/Iowa/Nebraska/South
Dakota, storm coverage is much less certain. There could be an
increase in thunderstorm activity as the low-level jet increases
during the evening. Should this occur, damaging winds and perhaps
isolated large hail would be possible. Shear will be weaker in these
areas and the severe threat will likely remain marginal/isolated.

...Northeast...
Questions remain as to the timing of MCV/convection moving out of
Canada. Given the potential for early precipitation to occur and
limit surface-based instability, the Marginal Risk has been
maintained for this outlook. Nevertheless, the environment will be
favorable for strong to severe storms. Effective shear is expected
to be around 50 kt. Damaging winds and large hail are likely the
main risks; however, if storm mode is more cellular, a greater
tornado risk could also be present. Trends in guidance will need to
be monitored.

...Colorado/Kansas/southwest Nebraska...
A modest lee trough will promote moisture advection into the central
High Plains. A subtle shortwave trough moving through the central
Rockies may aid in storm development. The timing of storm
development is not certain, but most guidance would suggest this
occurs at or after 00Z. Steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate
deep-layer shear will promote organized storms that will be capable
of large hail (isolated to around 2 in.) and severe winds. Low-level
shear will be enhanced near the surface trough/low, but concerns
over low-level thermodynamics limit confidence in a tornado threat.

..Wendt.. 06/29/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 050445
SWODY2
SPC AC 050443

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS
THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorm development posing at least some risk for severe
weather is possible across parts of northern Minnesota through the
eastern and central Dakotas, as well as across parts of the Mid
Atlantic, Monday afternoon into evening.

...Discussion...
Downstream of digging large-scale mid-level troughing and an
associated surface cyclone slowly approaching the British Columbia
and Pacific Northwest coast, ridging may become increasingly
prominent across Baja California through the southern Rockies and
central Great Plains during this period. Mid-level heights may tend
to remain steady or slowly rise as far north as the eastern
Montana/North Dakota international border, in the wake of a notable
mid-level trough forecast to progress through northwestern Ontario
and Hudson Bay by late Monday night.

It appears that one vigorous impulse embedded within the troughing,
and forecast to continue accelerating east-northeastward, to the
north of the international border, may provide support for stronger
secondary surface cyclogenesis across the southern Hudson Bay
vicinity by Monday night.

To the east of the mid-level ridging, weak mid-level troughing may
continue to drift slowly east of the Mississippi Valley, toward the Appalachians.

In association with this evolving regime, the potential for
organized severe thunderstorm activity still appears generally low
and dependent on sub-synoptic developments with rather low
predictability at this time frame. This continues to be reflected
in latest model output, including convection allowing and related
guidance, which exhibit sizable spread concerning potential
convective evolution and locations with higher probabilities for
thunderstorm development.

...Northern Great Plains...
Deeper surface troughing and mid-level height falls are forecast to
pass to the north of the international border through this period.
However, there appears at least some continuing signal in model
output that boundary-layer moisture return to the vicinity of weak
pre-frontal surface troughing, coincident with southeastward
suppression of warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer
air, could allow for scattered strong thunderstorm development by
late Monday afternoon. If this occurs, moderate to large potential instability, in the presence of at least modest shear beneath 30-40
kt 500 mb flow, probably will be conducive to storms capable of
producing severe hail and wind, before perhaps tending to be
undercut by a southward advancing cold front trailing the developing
Canadian cyclone.

...Mid Atlantic...
The timing and/or location of highest thunderstorm probabilities
across the region differs notably between the REFS and HREF
calibrated thunderstorm guidance, and deep-layer mean flow and shear
will be rather weak. However, destabilization within broad, weak
surface troughing to the lee of the Blue Ridge might become
sufficient to focus scattered thunderstorm development with
potential to produce localized damaging surface gusts Monday
afternoon into early evening.

..Kerr.. 07/05/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 090458
SWODY2
SPC AC 090456

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 PM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO ADJACENT
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
AND OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Clusters of thunderstorms, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind
gusts and some hail, may evolve in a corridor across parts of the
south central Great Plains into the Tennessee Valley Friday
afternoon and evening.

...Discussion...
Latest model output indicates little general change from prior runs.
To the southeast of a vigorous short wave trough digging offshore of
the southern British Columbia coast, it appears that an increasingly
prominent mid/upper-level high will begin to form across portions of
the Colorado Valley/Plateau through southern Rockies vicinity late
Friday through Friday night. Ridging to the north of the high is
also forecast to continue building along an axis across the northern
U.S. Great Plains into eastern Canadian Prairies, while downstream
positively tilted larger-scale troughing gradually shifts into and
across the northern Atlantic Seaboard.

The evolution of remnant weak troughing across the central Great
Plains into lower Missouri Valley remains much more unclear, based
on continuing varied model solutions However, a belt of westerlies
to its south may remain convectively augmented in lower/mid-levels,
though perhaps weaker than Thursday.

The potential for at least moderate destabilization remains most
certain along the southern periphery of this regime, aided by a
corridor of steeper lower through mid-tropospheric lapse rates
associated with elevated mixed-layer air (probably based closer to
850 mb than 700 mb), above a seasonably moist boundary-layer. The
latitude at which this will become focused remains a bit uncertain,
and by late Friday afternoon will largely depend on where outflow
from prior convection ends up and the extent to which it modifies.
However, corridors of stronger differential heating and developing
low-level warm advection might contribute to an environment
conducive to the evolution of at least small organizing clusters
with potential to produce severe wind and hail across eastern
portions of the central Great Plains into the Tennessee Valley
through Friday evening.

In the wake of the eastward migrating weak mid-level trough, convection-allowing guidance suggests that easterly low-level flow
into portions of the Front Range, Sangre de Cristo Mountains and
Raton Mesa/ridge vicinity will be sufficiently moist and unstable,
in the presence of steep lapse rates, to support scattered strong
thunderstorm development. Some of these may become capable of
producing severe hail and wind.

..Kerr.. 07/09/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 120601
SWODY2
SPC AC 120559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH FLORIDA
INTO MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong-to-severe storms will be possible from South Carolina
into central Georgia and far North Florida on Monday.

... Synopsis ...

A large mid-level ridge, centered over the upper-Mississippi Valley,
will encompass much of the US on Monday. To the south of the ridge
center, broad northeast-to-easterly mid-level flow will prevail. A
weak mid-level trough over the Tennessee Valley will continue to
slowly weaken as the mid-level ridge expands eastward to its north.
On the southwest side of the ridge, easterly-to-southeasterly
mid-level flow will persist across the Southwest.

At the surface, a high-pressure area will be centered over the Corn
Belt, with a weak low-pressure area continuing to meander over the
Southeast along a stalled boundary across Georgia into South Carolina.


... North Florida into South Carolina ...

To the south of the previously mentioned stalled boundary, surface
dewpoints should be in the upper-60Fs to low-70Fs. Scattered
thunderstorms should develop during the afternoon with peak heating.
Guidance is trending cooler with afternoon temperatures as compared
to previous days (mid-80Fs versus mid-90Fs), which should preclude
widespread low-level lapse rates typically needed for strong,
damaging thunderstorm outflows. However, given the presence of a
weak surface low and a stalled outflow boundary that may focus
thunderstorm development, the 5% wind probabilities have been
maintained, although the resulting coverage of wind reports should
be less than in preceding days.


... Arizona ...

A conditional severe threat exists across southern Arizona on
Monday. The background environment of seasonably moist low levels
and modest easterly mid-level flow would seem to support some
potential for one or more westward moving thunderstorm clusters.
These clusters would be capable of strong thunderstorm outflow winds
given very steep low-level lapse rates. However, significant
convection is expected across the region on Sunday, which may scour
out the better low-level moisture or leave behind sufficient
convective cloud cover that modulates diurnal heating. Given this
uncertainty, and the marginal nature of the assessed severe threat
at this time, will hold off on adding unconditional severe wind
probabilities.


... Western Montana ...

Thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon across the higher
terrain of western Montana, particularly southwestern areas. Modest
surface dewpoints and expected cloud cover should limit buoyancy and
overall updraft intensity. However, should a stronger storm develop,
strong mid-level flow would support thunderstorms capable of strong,
gusty outflows.

..Marsh.. 07/12/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 140544
SWODY2
SPC AC 140542

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The potential for organized severe storms continues to appear low on
Wednesday.

... Synopsis ...

A broad mid-level ridge across the central United States will take
on an increasingly negative tilt on Wednesday, with the elongated
highest heights within the ridge found from the eastern Dakotas
southeast into southern Virginia and northern North Carolina. This
will occur in large part due to an eastern Pacific closed low
building the ridge axis northward into western Canada, a strong
shortwave trough impinging upon the northeast periphery of the
ridge, and a closed mid-level low undercutting southern portions of
the ridge as it begins to be drawn northwestward toward the main
belt of westerlies.

At the surface, generally hot conditions will be maintained across
most of the CONUS -- the exception largely being northern New
England. A moist airmass will remain entrenched across much of the
eastern US, with a southward advancing surface boundary across the
Northeast serving to delineate the warm, moist airmass to the south
from the cooler, drier airmass to the north.


... Northern New Jersey north/east into far southern New England ...

An unstable airmass will be in place along and south of the
aforementioned surface front where MUCAPE values should increase to
between 500-1500 J/kg during the afternoon. The front will be on the
southern fringe of the greater mid-level flow, contributing to
effective-layer shear on the order of 45 knots.

Modest height falls may overspread the frontal boundary during the
afternoon in association with an approaching mid-level speed
maximum. This may provide enough forcing for widely scattered
thunderstorm development in the region from the lower Great Lakes
into the northern Mid-Atlantic and far southern New England. The
best signal for initiation is along the coastal areas of southern
New England/New York, which will limit their potential to produce
severe weather before moving offshore. Should thunderstorm
initiation occur earlier in the day (and thus farther inland) or
thunderstorm coverage is greater than currently expected, a marginal
threat for large hail and damaging winds may be realized and severe probabilities would need to be introduced in a later outlook.


... Western Montana ...

Thunderstorms will once again be possible on Wednesday, thanks in
large part to the continued presence of mid-level moisture and
modest diurnal heating. Model guidance suggests that widespread
cloud cover may limit afternoon heating, which would impact overall
instability and resulting thunderstorm intensity. Should robust
convection develop, the region remains beneath enhanced mid-level
flow that may be transported down to the surface as strong
thunderstorm winds/outflow. However, confidence in this occurring is
too low to warrant unconditional severe probabilities with this
outlook.

..Marsh.. 07/14/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)