ACUS01 KWNS 211240
SWODY1
SPC AC 211239

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Valid 211300Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the
contiguous United States through tonight.

...IL/IN...

Morning water-vapor imagery shows a subtle disturbance over the mid
MO Valley, which is forecast to quickly move southeast into the
southern Great Lakes by early evening. An associated surface trough
is forecast to develop from Lower MI into southern WI and northern
IL by late afternoon. Despite modest moisture (upper 40s to mid 50s
deg F surface dewpoints) returning northward into the Cornbelt, cold
mid-level temperatures (around -16 to -18 deg C at 500 mb) per
forecast soundings and heating will yield weak instability by
mid-late afternoon. Models continue to show isolated to scattered
storms late today into the evening. It remains uncertain whether a
couple of stronger cells will yield a threat of hail beyond a risk
for small hail. This activity will likely diminish by mid-late
evening as it moves southeast into central portions of IL/IN.

...Central CA...

Strong cyclonic flow associated with a mid-level low and associated
trough will move across central CA into the Great Basin during the
period. Cold temperatures aloft north of the midlevel jet will
support weak instability over parts of the central valleys. Given
early precipitation and clouds, as well as marginal low-level shear,
severe storms appear unlikely. However, a few strong storms may
occur late in the afternoon if sufficient heating occurs behind the
early day rain. Small hail appears most probable with the strongest cells.

..Smith/Thompson.. 04/21/2026

$$

--- ScorpioBBS/QWK v0.31a (Linux/x86_64)
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 301248
SWODY1
SPC AC 301246

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Valid 301300Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
TEXAS AND COASTAL/SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and gusty winds will be
possible mainly this evening and tonight across parts of southwest/south-central Texas towards the middle Texas Coast, and
this afternoon across coastal/southern Louisiana.

...Texas...

Strong westerly mid-flow will be maintained across the southern
Plains into the Southeast today, as a mid/upper-level low currently
off the coast of Baja California quickly moves eastward through the
period. A surface front is currently stalled across parts of south
TX, and most of the thunderstorms forecast to develop across TX
through tonight are expected to remain elevated. Ascent preceding
the shortwave trough should eventually encourage convection to
develop near the TX Big Bend late this evening, and spread eastward
towards the middle TX Coast through early Friday morning. Sufficient
MUCAPE and strong cloud-layer shear will support an isolated threat
for severe hail with any elevated supercells that can develop.
Strong to locally damaging winds may also occur as supercells
encounter greater instability across south-central to coastal TX
late tonight, even if they remain slightly elevated. Overall
confidence in coverage of severe convection remains too low to
include greater severe hail probabilities and a Slight Risk with
this update.

...Coastal/Southern Louisiana...

A convectively reinforced surface front is draped across
southern/coastal LA this morning, with thunderstorms ongoing to its
north. Greater instability will exist to the south of the front
across coastal LA this afternoon. Thunderstorms that develop/move
across the front later today could pose some risk for locally
damaging winds and marginally severe hail given weak to moderate
instability and strong deep-layer shear.

...Coastal South Carolina...

Thunderstorms capable of producing occasional strong/gusty winds
should move offshore within the next hour or two. The overall severe
wind threat appears too limited to include 5% probabilities.

..Gleason/Jewell.. 04/30/2026

$$

--- Scorpio BBS
* Origin: (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 131231
SWODY1
SPC AC 131230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST AND MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated strong to severe winds may occur this
afternoon and evening across parts of the Southeast and Montana.

...Southeast...
A very weak mid-level trough will persist over the Deep South and
Carolinas today, with modest westerly flow. Although rich low-level
moisture remains present across these areas, multiple days of
convective overturning has resulted in rather poor lapse rates
aloft. This, along with persistent cloudiness, should limit to some
degree how much instability will develop this afternoon with
filtered daytime heating. Deep-layer shear will also remain weak,
and thunderstorms should generally be disorganized. Some loose
clustering may eventually occur with convection spreading eastward
from the central Gulf Coast towards the FL Peninsula, where
low-level lapse rates should become steepened by peak afternoon
heating. Isolated damaging winds appear possible with the strongest
cores from parts of FL into eastern GA and SC ahead of the weak
mid-level trough.

...Montana...
Mid/upper-level ridging will extend from the southern/central
Rockies to the northern Plains/Upper Midwest through the period,
with a belt of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow over
western/central MT. High-based thunderstorms may develop this
afternoon across parts of southwest into central MT amid a deeply
mixed boundary layer. While low-level moisture and related
instability are both expected to remain limited, some risk for
occasional strong to severe gusts may accompany this convection as
it spreads northward through the early evening before weakening.

...Arizona...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms are still ongoing this morning
across parts of southern AZ. While mid-level east-southeasterly flow
will persist today across much of AZ on the southern periphery of
prominent upper ridging, it remains unclear how much destabilization
will occur in the wake of this morning's convection. Whether
convection will be able to spread westward off the higher terrain of
southeast AZ and the Mogollon Rim is also uncertain. Have therefore
not included low severe wind probabilities with this update.

..Gleason/Thornton.. 07/13/2026

$$

--- Scorpio BBS
* Origin: capitolcityonlinet.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)