ACUS02 KWNS 290558
SWODY2
SPC AC 290556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
of the upper Mississippi River Valley to Lower Michigan late Monday
night into early Tuesday morning.

...Synopsis...
A low-amplitude upper wave is forecast to progress along the
U.S./Canadian border Monday through early Tuesday morning. Ahead of
this wave, a surface cyclone will steadily intensify across the
Plains as it migrates towards the upper MS Valley. Northward
moisture return over the next 48 hours ahead of the surface low will
likely result in mid to upper 50 dewpoints reaching the upper MS
Valley and Great Lakes region by early evening. Concurrently,
westerly flow aloft will advect 7-8 C/km lapse rates eastward
towards the Great Lakes region. This combination of low-level
moistening and steepening lapse rates aloft will yield a buoyant air
mass within the warm conveyor region of the developing cyclone.

Capping and mostly dry low-level conditions will preclude
thunderstorm development during the day. After 00 UTC, a
strengthening of the low-level jet will augment low-level moistening
and isentropic ascent between 925-850 mb across the upper MS Valley
and Great Lakes region. Thunderstorm development is expected between
the 03-06 UTC period across northeast IA into southern WI/northern
IL along the warm frontal zone. Westerly effective bulk shear values
on the order of 30-40 knots will likely support storm organization,
including the potential for elevated supercells initially, with an
attendant large hail risk. With time, storm motions along the zonal
frontal zone will promote upscale growth into one or more clusters
as convection spreads east into MI. Some damaging wind threat may
materialize with this activity depending on its proximity to the
surface warm front.

A more isolated hail threat appears likely across northern lower MI
after 06 UTC as more focused isentropic ascent spreads north.
Although convection will be elevated, elongated hodographs through
the CAPE-bearing layer will promote organized cells with mainly a
large hail threat.

..Moore.. 03/29/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 060512
SWODY2
SPC AC 060510

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across
portions of the central Gulf coast into South Carolina.

...Southern AL/FL Panhandle into SC...

Moderate to strong deep-layer west/southwesterly flow will persist
across the Southeast on Thursday as an upper trough pivots across
Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, a cold front is forecast from the
southern Mid-Atlantic to southern MS/southeast LA Thursday morning.
This boundary will develop east/southeast through the period moving
off the Atlantic coast and arcing across north-central FL and just
off the Gulf coast. Ahead of the front, a seasonally moist boundary
layer will be in place with dewpoints from the mid 60s to low 70s,
supporting MLCAPE up to around 1500 J/kg.

Some showers and thunderstorms could be ongoing near the front at
the beginning of the period. Where stronger heating can occur ahead
of this activity and the front, intensification of morning
convection and/or new development is possible. Given deep-layer flow
parallel to the boundary and poor frontal convergence, clusters and
linear segments are most probable. Given strong deep-layer flow,
isolated strong to severe wind gusts will be possible. Speed shear
in the lowest couple of kilometers and 0-1 SRH up to 150 m2/s2 could
also support a brief tornado, but strong/damaging gusts are expected
to be the main hazard.

..Leitman.. 05/06/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 070520
SWODY2
SPC AC 070518

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST KS...CENTRAL/EASTERN OK...NORTHWEST AR...AND
SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL MO...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms are possible on Friday from parts of Oklahoma
into Missouri. Scattered storms are also likely over much of Texas
into the lower Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...

Northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Plains as a shortwave
upper trough develops east across the Mid-MS, OH and TN Valleys
through early Saturday. A surface front will extend along the TX
coast northeastward through the northern Gulf. This boundary will
lift northward through the period, allowing for moisture return
across TX, the Lower MS Valley and parts of the Southeast.
Meanwhile, a surface cold front is forecast to develop southeast
across parts of the Plains and Midwest, becoming oriented from the
OH Valley to southern AR and north TX by Saturday morning.

...KS/OK/MO/AR...

Moisture return will be limited ahead of the aforementioned cold
front, with surface dewpoints generally expected to be in the 50s. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates are noted in forecast
soundings, aided by cool temperatures aloft. This will support
MLCAPE to around 1000-1500 J/kg within a narrow corridor ahead of
the front. Effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt will
support organized updrafts. Given the cool temperatures aloft/steep
midlevel lapse rates and elongated/straight forecast hodographs,
isolated large hail is possible. Furthermore, where there is
stronger heating, deep boundary layer mixing and steepening
low-level lapse rates will be possible, and isolated strong/severe
wind gusts may occur. Instability will diminish with time and
eastward extent into the evening as storms move across parts of MO/AR.

...TX to the Lower MS Valley...

Model guidance remains somewhat uncertain with regards to severe
potential across TX. Early day thunderstorms, showers, and
cloudiness are possible as Gulf moisture returns northward across
portions of the state. Capping and initially weak forcing and modest
shear will likely preclude severe potential through much of the day.
Isolated thunderstorms will likely also develop along the retreating
warm front across the Lower MS Valley vicinity, but severe storms
are not expected.

It is possible that by evening into the nighttime hours some severe
potential could develop across portions of TX as the upper shortwave
trough overspreads the region, resulting in increasing forcing
within the warm advection regime. Some storms developing over the
higher terrain in Mexico could approach the middle/lower Rio Grande
in TX, and if they can be maintained, pose a risk for large hail.
However, confidence is too low to include severe probabilities at
this time.

..Leitman.. 05/07/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)