ACUS02 KWNS 290558
SWODY2
SPC AC 290556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
of the upper Mississippi River Valley to Lower Michigan late Monday
night into early Tuesday morning.

...Synopsis...
A low-amplitude upper wave is forecast to progress along the
U.S./Canadian border Monday through early Tuesday morning. Ahead of
this wave, a surface cyclone will steadily intensify across the
Plains as it migrates towards the upper MS Valley. Northward
moisture return over the next 48 hours ahead of the surface low will
likely result in mid to upper 50 dewpoints reaching the upper MS
Valley and Great Lakes region by early evening. Concurrently,
westerly flow aloft will advect 7-8 C/km lapse rates eastward
towards the Great Lakes region. This combination of low-level
moistening and steepening lapse rates aloft will yield a buoyant air
mass within the warm conveyor region of the developing cyclone.

Capping and mostly dry low-level conditions will preclude
thunderstorm development during the day. After 00 UTC, a
strengthening of the low-level jet will augment low-level moistening
and isentropic ascent between 925-850 mb across the upper MS Valley
and Great Lakes region. Thunderstorm development is expected between
the 03-06 UTC period across northeast IA into southern WI/northern
IL along the warm frontal zone. Westerly effective bulk shear values
on the order of 30-40 knots will likely support storm organization,
including the potential for elevated supercells initially, with an
attendant large hail risk. With time, storm motions along the zonal
frontal zone will promote upscale growth into one or more clusters
as convection spreads east into MI. Some damaging wind threat may
materialize with this activity depending on its proximity to the
surface warm front.

A more isolated hail threat appears likely across northern lower MI
after 06 UTC as more focused isentropic ascent spreads north.
Although convection will be elevated, elongated hodographs through
the CAPE-bearing layer will promote organized cells with mainly a
large hail threat.

..Moore.. 03/29/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 060512
SWODY2
SPC AC 060510

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across
portions of the central Gulf coast into South Carolina.

...Southern AL/FL Panhandle into SC...

Moderate to strong deep-layer west/southwesterly flow will persist
across the Southeast on Thursday as an upper trough pivots across
Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, a cold front is forecast from the
southern Mid-Atlantic to southern MS/southeast LA Thursday morning.
This boundary will develop east/southeast through the period moving
off the Atlantic coast and arcing across north-central FL and just
off the Gulf coast. Ahead of the front, a seasonally moist boundary
layer will be in place with dewpoints from the mid 60s to low 70s,
supporting MLCAPE up to around 1500 J/kg.

Some showers and thunderstorms could be ongoing near the front at
the beginning of the period. Where stronger heating can occur ahead
of this activity and the front, intensification of morning
convection and/or new development is possible. Given deep-layer flow
parallel to the boundary and poor frontal convergence, clusters and
linear segments are most probable. Given strong deep-layer flow,
isolated strong to severe wind gusts will be possible. Speed shear
in the lowest couple of kilometers and 0-1 SRH up to 150 m2/s2 could
also support a brief tornado, but strong/damaging gusts are expected
to be the main hazard.

..Leitman.. 05/06/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 070520
SWODY2
SPC AC 070518

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST KS...CENTRAL/EASTERN OK...NORTHWEST AR...AND
SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL MO...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms are possible on Friday from parts of Oklahoma
into Missouri. Scattered storms are also likely over much of Texas
into the lower Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...

Northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Plains as a shortwave
upper trough develops east across the Mid-MS, OH and TN Valleys
through early Saturday. A surface front will extend along the TX
coast northeastward through the northern Gulf. This boundary will
lift northward through the period, allowing for moisture return
across TX, the Lower MS Valley and parts of the Southeast.
Meanwhile, a surface cold front is forecast to develop southeast
across parts of the Plains and Midwest, becoming oriented from the
OH Valley to southern AR and north TX by Saturday morning.

...KS/OK/MO/AR...

Moisture return will be limited ahead of the aforementioned cold
front, with surface dewpoints generally expected to be in the 50s. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates are noted in forecast
soundings, aided by cool temperatures aloft. This will support
MLCAPE to around 1000-1500 J/kg within a narrow corridor ahead of
the front. Effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt will
support organized updrafts. Given the cool temperatures aloft/steep
midlevel lapse rates and elongated/straight forecast hodographs,
isolated large hail is possible. Furthermore, where there is
stronger heating, deep boundary layer mixing and steepening
low-level lapse rates will be possible, and isolated strong/severe
wind gusts may occur. Instability will diminish with time and
eastward extent into the evening as storms move across parts of MO/AR.

...TX to the Lower MS Valley...

Model guidance remains somewhat uncertain with regards to severe
potential across TX. Early day thunderstorms, showers, and
cloudiness are possible as Gulf moisture returns northward across
portions of the state. Capping and initially weak forcing and modest
shear will likely preclude severe potential through much of the day.
Isolated thunderstorms will likely also develop along the retreating
warm front across the Lower MS Valley vicinity, but severe storms
are not expected.

It is possible that by evening into the nighttime hours some severe
potential could develop across portions of TX as the upper shortwave
trough overspreads the region, resulting in increasing forcing
within the warm advection regime. Some storms developing over the
higher terrain in Mexico could approach the middle/lower Rio Grande
in TX, and if they can be maintained, pose a risk for large hail.
However, confidence is too low to include severe probabilities at
this time.

..Leitman.. 05/07/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 140448
SWODY2
SPC AC 140447

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN NM...SOUTHEAST CO...AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms over the southern Rockies may result in some
severe potential as they move southeast during the afternoon and
evening. Elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms are possible from the
Gulf Coast states to the Carolinas, and across the northern
Plains/Upper Midwest.

...Synopsis...

Broad, upper troughing will envelop much of the CONUS from the
Rockies to the East Coast on Monday. A surface front will be
oriented from the Mid-Atlantic coast southwestward across the Gulf
Coast states and into central/southwest TX.

...Southern Rockies/High Plains...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of
the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains in southeast
CO/eastern NM and possibly as far east as western parts of the OK/TX
Panhandles during the late afternoon and evening. A weak shortwave
impulse is expected to move over the southern Rockies while
southerly low-level flow results in modest northward moisture return
within the post-frontal upslope flow regime. Southerly low-level
flow increasing with height and becoming northwesterly above 700 mb
will provide sufficient effective shear for some storm organization.
High-based convection will pose a risk for strong outflow gusts,
with some potential for a forward propagating cluster moving across
eastern NM toward the Panhandles via cold pool/outflow interactions.
Overall modest shear, weak instability and a lack of low-level jet
development will limit overall severe potential, though a couple of
severe storms will be possible.

...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest...

A shortwave impulse rotating across the northern Plains/Upper
Midwest within broader upper troughing will support isolated to
scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms within a dry airmass.
Some gusty winds could accompany this activity, but a dearth of
boundary layer moisture and weak instability will preclude severe probabilities.

...Southeast...

Across the Southeast, a very moist airmass will be in place ahead of
the southward sagging surface front. Poor lapse rates will limit
stronger destabilization, but a belt of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE is
possible across southern AL/GA into northern FL. Thunderstorm
clusters could produce locally gusty winds, but organized severe
potential will be limited by weak vertical shear, poor lapse rates,
and little large-scale ascent.

..Leitman.. 06/14/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 150450
SWODY2
SPC AC 150448

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday
afternoon and evening across parts of the Midwest into Lower Michigan.

...Midwest...

A midlevel shortwave trough will migrate east across the Midwest and
Great Lakes on Tuesday. This will support a band of enhanced
midlevel southwesterly flow across portions of WI/IL and into
IN/Lower MI/OH during the afternoon and evening. Cooling aloft will
result in steep midlevel lapse rates and support MLCAPE up to 1500
J/kg. A weak cold front will move across the region during the afternoon/evening, and a band of convection will develop ahead of
this feature. The main limiting factor precluding higher severe
probabilities at this time is the expectation for meager boundary
layer moisture. Surface dewpoints will generally be in the mid/upper
50s to near 60 F. Forecast soundings indicate sufficient deep layer
shear for transient supercells and clusters with a risk for isolated
hail and strong wind gusts.

...Northern Oklahoma vicinity...

Some forecast guidance suggests storms may develop across parts of
northern OK during the late afternoon/early evening as midlevel flow
increases within a strengthening warm advection regime. However,
given a lack of large-scale ascent or focus for thunderstorm
initiation other than strong daytime heating for an increasing moist
airmass, confidence in sustained thunderstorm development is low. If
storms can develop and be maintained, a risk for strong gusts and
isolated hail will be possible. If confidence increases, low
unconditional severe probabilities could be needed.

...Eastern Montana/Western North Dakota...

Strong storms are expected to develop within strong northwesterly
deep layer flow over the Canadian Prairies Tuesday
afternoon/evening. This activity will quickly develop southeast into
MT/ND by late afternoon/evening. Strong heating amid meager
low-level moisture will result in deep boundary layer mixing and
weak instability. Locally gusty winds could accompany this activity.

..Leitman.. 06/15/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 180526
SWODY2
SPC AC 180524

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND FROM NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong storms may produce gusty winds and hail across the
Upper Midwest. Additional strong thunderstorms may produce damaging
wind gusts from north Texas/southern Oklahoma through portions of
the Gulf Coast states and into the coastal Carolinas.

...Minnesota/Wisconsin...

An upper shortwave trough will migrate across the Upper Midwest on
Friday. This will bring a belt of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft
across the region. In the wake of a prior frontal passage,
boundary-layer moisture will be very modest (generally 50s F
dewpoints), but cool temperatures aloft and midlevel lapse rates
near 7 C/km will support weak destabilization (around 500-1000 J/kg
MLCAPE). Forecast soundings show vertically veering wind profiles
and elongated/straight hodographs with around 35-40 kt effective
shear magnitudes. Isolated higher-based supercells will be possible.
Steepened low-level lapse rates and the relatively dry
boundary-layer will support isolated strong gusts. Isolated
marginally severe hail also will be possible.

...ArkLaTex vicinity through the Gulf Coast states...

Most forecast guidance depicts an ongoing MCS across North Texas or
far southern OK at Friday morning. Strong gusts will be possible
with this system through the morning given modestly enhanced
mid/upper flow and a corridor of strong instability across the
ArkLaTex vicinity. This MCS and/or remnant MCV may continue
east/southeast across east TX or toward the lower MS Valley through
the day, tracking along a southward-sagging surface boundary.

Further east across the Gulf Coast vicinity, a very moist airmass
will be in place, with PW values near 2 inches common. This will aid
in moderate destabilization ahead of a west to east oriented surface
boundary. Vertical shear will be weak, but water laden downdrafts
could support isolated microbursts. It is unclear if convection will
be able to organize along the surface boundary into a forward
propagating cluster, but if this occurs, damaging wind potential
would increase.

...Coastal Carolinas...

A mid/upper shortwave trough will move across the area through
afternoon. Some guidance depicts a small MCS or cluster associated
with a strong low-level jet during the morning. As this feature
spreads northeast along the coast through afternoon, strong gusts
will be possible.

...Florida...

A seasonally moist and unstable airmass will reside across
north/central FL on Friday. Parts of the state will be on the
southern fringes of stronger mid-level flow associated with the
upper shortwave trough moving across the Carolinas. Some forecast
soundings show 20-30 kt midlevel low, and this may be sufficient for
transient organized cells along parts of the east coast. Additional
storms will be possible across the Panhandle and northern FL as
convection develops southward across the area ahead of a
southward-sagging surface boundary. Ample moisture/high PW values
and moderate instability will support occasional strong gusts with
the strongest storms.

..Leitman.. 06/18/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 250536
SWODY2
SPC AC 250535

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AND EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TO
THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts
will be possible across the High Plains, southern Kansas and
northern Oklahoma, and into the Ohio Valley on Friday. Additional
severe storms capable of damaging wind and isolated large hail will
also be possible across portions of the Northeast.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify across the Northwest CONUS on Friday
as ridging builds across the Plains. A broad surface low will exist
from northwest Texas into Missouri along a frontal zone. A lee
cyclone will develop across the northern High Plains as the primary
trough starts to eject over the northern Rockies. This will result
in strengthening southerly flow across the Plains and
destabilization from eastern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and
perhaps far southeast Montana.

...High Plains...

Weak to moderate destabilization is forecast across the High Plains
as dewpoints increase into the 60s during the afternoon. Slight
height rises may limit storm coverage somewhat, but as storms form
across the terrain Friday afternoon/evening, the environment
downstream should support these storms continuing. Some storm
organization and transient rotating updrafts are possible from
northeast Colorado into eastern Wyoming, but only modest effective
shear (around 25 knots) should limit overall storm intensity
somewhat. Nonetheless, some large hail and severe wind threat is possible.

...Central/southern Plains to the Ohio Valley...

Storms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across
Missouri and into southern Illinois and Indiana. These storms should
weaken as the move east of the greatest instability by late morning.
In the wake of this activity, moderate to strong destabilization is
expected. This should prove sufficient for isolated to scattered
storm development along the remnant frontal zone/outflow boundary
during the afternoon/evening. Most guidance shows 35 to 40 knot
mid-level flow remaining across the region which should be
sufficient for supercell organization. In addition, a vorticity rich environment will likely be present in the wake of morning storms. If
sufficient destabilization can occur within this airmass, some
tornado threat may exist.

Most notably, the NAM shows a more volatile scenario with a stronger
mid-level shortwave trough and a more defined surface low moving
along the boundary. This scenario appears to be a clear outlier
among 00Z guidance. However, it does represent the ceiling of this
potential scenario. While a marginal hail/wind/isolated tornado
threat seems like the most likely scenario, guidance will be
monitored closely for any hint of this more intense NAM solution.

...Northeast...

A line of storms will move through the Northeast Friday morning. In
the wake of these storms, some destabilization is expected ahead of
a cold front moving through the area. There is some uncertainty
about the degree of destabilization, but at least weak instability
is shown by most guidance. A strong mid-level jet streak across the
region (50+ knots) will provide long/straight hodographs. This will
support the potential for isolated large hail and damaging wind
gusts with the strongest storms.

..Bentley.. 06/25/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 270600
SWODY2
SPC AC 270559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Plains into
parts of the Upper Midwest on Sunday. Large hail and severe winds
are the primary hazards.

...Synopsis...
The western U.S. trough will remain in place on Sunday with an
amplifying upper ridge in the East. A surface low is expected to
develop within the central/northern High Plains, though the location
is still uncertain. A surface boundary will be present from the
Mid-Atlantic through the Ohio Valley and mid Mississippi Valley.

...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest...

The forecast remains rather complex across these regions. Convection
is generally expected to be ongoing during the early morning across
parts of eastern North Dakota into northern Minnesota. While this
activity is not expected to be particularly strong, it may modulate
the northward progression of a surface boundary. In the wake of the
morning activity, at least a narrow zone of moderate buoyancy
(2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) is expected to develop in central/eastern
North Dakota. Nebulous mid-level ascent casts some doubt on whether
storms will be able to form on an outflow boundary/surface trough.
Should storms develop, they may only be surface based for a short
period if at all. 50+ kt of effective shear and sufficient mid-level
lapse rates will support some risk of large hail and severe winds.

During the evening/overnight, the surface low is expected to deepen
somewhere in the High Plains. Storm development is possible as this
occurs. Where this occurs is still uncertain, but the Nebraska
Panhandle into western South Dakota are currently the most probable.
If convection can develop, it will most likely be elevated in
nature. The strong low-level jet would likely support some eastward
progress. Damaging winds and isolated large hail could occur with
this activity.

...Southern Mid-Atlantic...

Guidance continues to depict an MCV moving through the region. The
timing and intensity of this feature has been variable in the last
couple of model cycles. Overall deep-layer flow will be weak outside
of the influence of the MCV. Given the moist airmass in place,
widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of
this feature. Damaging wind gusts are possible, particularly where
storms can cluster.

..Wendt.. 06/27/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)