ACUS01 KWNS 241632
SWODY1
SPC AC 241630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Valid 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ARKLATEX...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected today from parts of the
southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and lower Mississippi Valley.
Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will be possible.
The greatest threat for supercells with very large hail (2+ inches)
should focus across parts of southeast Oklahoma to the ArkLaTex region.

...Oklahoma/North Texas to ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley...

A persistent band of non-severe thunderstorms this morning, and its
related outflow, continue to settle southward across southeast
Oklahoma, south-central/southeast Arkansas into northwest
Mississippi. The southeastern-most portion of the convective line
may re-intensify across the ArkLaMiss today as the boundary layer
warms, with some potential for a secondary round of upscale-growing
storms into tonight across generally the same ArkLaMiss/Lower
Mississippi Valley region. This includes damaging winds and some
tornado potential, primarily QLCS-related, especially into this
evening/tonight via a somewhat stronger wind field.

The western periphery of the ongoing complex and its outflow should
continue to decelerate, stall, and modify through the afternoon,
setting the stage for a semi-corridor of heightened severe potential
via this modifying outflow in conjunction with the surface triple
point to this west, with intensifying storm development anticipated
toward the 4pm-6pm/21z-23z time frame across southeast Oklahoma and
nearby ArkLaTex. This will be in the presence of ample buoyancy and
steep mid-level lapse rates. Wind profiles will further support
intense supercells capable of large to very large hail, along with a
tornado risk, accentuated by backed low-level winds near the outflow
boundary and east of the triple point. With time, some clustering
may occur with an increased damaging wind threat as convection
spreads east-southeastward.

Additionally, locally intense storms may also focus farther west
across southern Oklahoma/Red River vicinity along/north of the southward-sagging front where relatively rich low-level moisture
will persist in the presence of strong deep-layer shear.

...Texas Dryline - North/Central TX to Hill Country/Rio Grande...

A highly conditional scenario exists in vicinity of the south/southwestward-extending dryline late this afternoon/early
evening, with a concerning (mostly hail) severe potential should
storms develop. Short-term guidance varies on the aggressiveness of eastward-mixing/dryline through peak heating, although the 12z Fort
Worth sounding sampled respectable warm-sector moisture content this
morning (upper quartile climo; 14.4 g/kg mean mixing ratio).
Regardless, a concerning high degree of instability (3000+ J/kg
MLCAPE) will exist near/east of the dryline late this afternoon.

Short-term models remain rather sparse on explicit indications of
near-dryline convective initiation. However, sufficient dry line
convergence and post-dryline heating/mixing could plausibly lead to
isolated but intense thunderstorm development in the presence of
negligible capping/boundary-layer inhibition. And while mid-level
capping will be more prevalent, especially with southward extent,
upstream 12z soundings from Midland/El Paso (both around -14C 500mb)
suggest that some additional mid-level cooling is probable. Notably
stronger mid/high-level winds were also observed in these RAOBs with
50+ kt winds and 100+ kt winds at 500mb/250mb, respectively.

Several sub-regional zones of potential isolated deep convective
development are at least plausible, including in closer proximity to
the surface triple point across North Texas/Metroplex general
vicinity, extending into parts of central Texas where low-level
mixing may be less impactful, and lastly in the immediate vicinity
of the Rio Grande, potentially influenced by possible storm
development across the border. If/where storms do develop late this afternoon/early evening, very large hail could occur along with
localized severe-caliber wind gusts.

...Great Lakes/Ohio Valley...

A weak/convectively influenced mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward across the Midwest and Upper Great Lakes today.
Convection ahead of a cold front has generally weakened this morning
across the mid Mississippi Valley, but multi-layer cloud cover
remains prevalent. Modest-caliber low-level moisture will continue
to advect north-northeastward through the day ahead of the front,
supporting weak instability with filtered daytime heating. Loosely
organized clusters/cells that develop/intensify this afternoon may
pose an isolated threat for damaging winds as they move
northeastward this afternoon and evening. The residual clouds and a
weakening low-level wind field should curb the overall magnitude of
the severe risk, hence maintenance of MRGL/Category 1 risk.

...Western Nebraska...

A couple of stronger storms may develop late this afternoon/early
evening near a southeastward-moving front, further influenced by a
mid-level impulse embedded within the base of the large-scale trough
centered over the Canadian Prairies. In the presence of a strong
deep-layer wind field, modest-caliber CAPE atop a well-mixed
boundary layer could potentially yield an isolated severe gust/hail.

..Guyer/Weinman.. 04/24/2026

$$

--- ScorpioBBS/QWK v0.32a (Linux/x86_64)
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 241958
SWODY1
SPC AC 241956

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA INTO THE ARKLATEX...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected today from parts of the
southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and lower Mississippi Valley.
Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will be possible.
The greatest threat for supercells with very large hail (2+ inches)
should focus across parts of southeast Oklahoma to the ArkLaTex region.

...20Z Update...
Much of the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. The
primary changes made to the current outlook were to trim severe
probabilities across portions of the OH Valley/Great Lakes, and the
Mid-MS Valley, where either the passage of a surface cold front, or
robust convection, has promoted boundary layer stabilization. More
minor changes involved small adjustments to current severe and
thunder probabilities ahead of storms to account for observations
and the latest guidance consensus.

..Squitieri.. 04/24/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026/

...Oklahoma/North Texas to ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley...

A persistent band of non-severe thunderstorms this morning, and its
related outflow, continue to settle southward across southeast
Oklahoma, south-central/southeast Arkansas into northwest
Mississippi. The southeastern-most portion of the convective line
may re-intensify across the ArkLaMiss today as the boundary layer
warms, with some potential for a secondary round of upscale-growing
storms into tonight across generally the same ArkLaMiss/Lower
Mississippi Valley region. This includes damaging winds and some
tornado potential, primarily QLCS-related, especially into this
evening/tonight via a somewhat stronger wind field.

The western periphery of the ongoing complex and its outflow should
continue to decelerate, stall, and modify through the afternoon,
setting the stage for a semi-corridor of heightened severe potential
via this modifying outflow in conjunction with the surface triple
point to this west, with intensifying storm development anticipated
toward the 4pm-6pm/21z-23z time frame across southeast Oklahoma and
nearby ArkLaTex. This will be in the presence of ample buoyancy and
steep mid-level lapse rates. Wind profiles will further support
intense supercells capable of large to very large hail, along with a
tornado risk, accentuated by backed low-level winds near the outflow
boundary and east of the triple point. With time, some clustering
may occur with an increased damaging wind threat as convection
spreads east-southeastward.

Additionally, locally intense storms may also focus farther west
across southern Oklahoma/Red River vicinity along/north of the southward-sagging front where relatively rich low-level moisture
will persist in the presence of strong deep-layer shear.

...Texas Dryline - North/Central TX to Hill Country/Rio Grande...

A highly conditional scenario exists in vicinity of the south/southwestward-extending dryline late this afternoon/early
evening, with a concerning (mostly hail) severe potential should
storms develop. Short-term guidance varies on the aggressiveness of eastward-mixing/dryline through peak heating, although the 12z Fort
Worth sounding sampled respectable warm-sector moisture content this
morning (upper quartile climo; 14.4 g/kg mean mixing ratio).
Regardless, a concerning high degree of instability (3000+ J/kg
MLCAPE) will exist near/east of the dryline late this afternoon.

Short-term models remain rather sparse on explicit indications of
near-dryline convective initiation. However, sufficient dry line
convergence and post-dryline heating/mixing could plausibly lead to
isolated but intense thunderstorm development in the presence of
negligible capping/boundary-layer inhibition. And while mid-level
capping will be more prevalent, especially with southward extent,
upstream 12z soundings from Midland/El Paso (both around -14C 500mb)
suggest that some additional mid-level cooling is probable. Notably
stronger mid/high-level winds were also observed in these RAOBs with
50+ kt winds and 100+ kt winds at 500mb/250mb, respectively.

Several sub-regional zones of potential isolated deep convective
development are at least plausible, including in closer proximity to
the surface triple point across North Texas/Metroplex general
vicinity, extending into parts of central Texas where low-level
mixing may be less impactful, and lastly in the immediate vicinity
of the Rio Grande, potentially influenced by possible storm
development across the border. If/where storms do develop late this afternoon/early evening, very large hail could occur along with
localized severe-caliber wind gusts.

...Great Lakes/Ohio Valley...

A weak/convectively influenced mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward across the Midwest and Upper Great Lakes today.
Convection ahead of a cold front has generally weakened this morning
across the mid Mississippi Valley, but multi-layer cloud cover
remains prevalent. Modest-caliber low-level moisture will continue
to advect north-northeastward through the day ahead of the front,
supporting weak instability with filtered daytime heating. Loosely
organized clusters/cells that develop/intensify this afternoon may
pose an isolated threat for damaging winds as they move
northeastward this afternoon and evening. The residual clouds and a
weakening low-level wind field should curb the overall magnitude of
the severe risk, hence maintenance of MRGL/Category 1 risk.

...Western Nebraska...

A couple of stronger storms may develop late this afternoon/early
evening near a southeastward-moving front, further influenced by a
mid-level impulse embedded within the base of the large-scale trough
centered over the Canadian Prairies. In the presence of a strong
deep-layer wind field, modest-caliber CAPE atop a well-mixed
boundary layer could potentially yield an isolated severe gust/hail.

$$

--- ScorpioBBS/QWK v0.32a (Linux/x86_64)
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 012007
SWODY1
SPC AC 012006

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0306 PM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026

Valid 012000Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND GULF COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are still expected across
the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes into tonight. A couple of
tornadoes are possible but damaging wind gusts are expected to be
the more widespread hazard, in addition to isolated large to very
large hail. Severe storms also remain a concern across parts of the
central High Plains, Northeast, and Southeast/Tennessee Valley.

...20Z Update...
The main change made to this outlook was to expand the wind-driven
severe probabilities southward across portions of the Upper Midwest
based on observational trends. A belt of relatively thick cloud
cover exists across portions of the Midwest. However, considerable
clearing and a CU field, along with isolated thunderstorms, has
developed across eastern IA into southern WI, where appreciable
buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and up to 40 kts of effective bulk
shear reside. Furthermore, a few of the latest WoFS runs also depict
some higher thunderstorm coverage across eastern IA into southern
WI. As such, the thinking is that organized severe potential, mainly
in the form of severe gusts, should exist across this region through
the evening.

Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track, with relatively
minor changes made to the thunder and severe probabilities to
reflect the latest observations and guidance consensus.

..Squitieri.. 07/01/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026/

...Midwest and Upper Great Lakes...
An active multi-round day of severe weather is expected across the
region through tonight. Early this afternoon, ongoing severe risks
will continue to focus across northern Michigan as well as eastern
Wisconsin, with a secondary round of severe storms potentially
spreading into Lower Michigan later this afternoon. See existing
Mesoscale Discussions/Watches for short-term details.

Severe potential later today will focus on a convectively reinforced
boundary, with a very moist and potentially unstable environment
along and south of it. Renewed deep convective development is
expected later this afternoon into tonight across northern Iowa and
southern Minnesota, and again into Wisconsin. A ribbon of moderately
strong mid-level westerlies, some of it MCV-enhanced, will support
organized storm modes including supercells and fast-moving line
segments and potential upscale-MCS development. Large to very large
hail will be possible with the more intense storms in addition to
wind, which may become more prevalent of a hazard (60-80+ mph) as
storm mergers lead to a couple of strong to severe clusters
developing. Some tornado potential may exist as well, particularly
along the effective boundary and/or increasing this evening as a
southwesterly low-level reinvigorates.

...Central and southern High Plains...
High-based thunderstorm development is expected along a
north/south-oriented lee trough/dryline during the afternoon and
evening. Despite modest deep-layer shear (around 25-30 kt), steep low/mid-level lapse rates will contribute to a strongly unstable
airmass. A mix of loosely organized clusters and possibly some
supercell structures will be capable of producing severe wind gusts
and large hail. Farther south into the southern High Plains, weaker
flow will limit overall storm organization, but steep lapse rates
will support severe gusts with the more intense downdrafts.

...Northeast...
Enhanced west-northwesterly mid-level flow will persist across the
Northeast, where a warm/moist air mass will contribute to around
3000 J/kg MLCAPE, especially across much of New York and
Pennsylvania. While nebulous mesoscale forcing for ascent casts
uncertainty on overall convective coverage and evolution, the strong
buoyancy and a veering wind profile (albeit modest deep-layer shear quantitatively) will favor east-southeastward-spreading convection
capable of damaging wind gusts and isolated hail during the
afternoon, and again during the evening/nighttime hours.

...Southeast/Tennessee Valley...
Along the southern periphery of a mid-level anticyclone centered
over the central Appalachians, easterly flow through much of the
troposphere resides atop a hot/moist air mass with 3000-4000 J/kg
MLCAPE this afternoon. 12z observed soundings from Atlanta,
Birmingham, and Jackson MS notably sampled 25-35 kt winds between
3-6km AGL, which could aid in storm organization this afternoon. A
somewhat cooler thermal profile aloft was also noted with the 12z
Atlanta sounding with a relatively steep mid-level lapse rate
profile. Strong to severe pulse thunderstorms are expected
regionally, and seemingly with a somewhat greater coverage and
likelihood than a typical pulse-type scenario. The stronger
water-loaded wet microbursts will yield localized gusts of 50-65 mph
and be capable of wind damage.

...Montana and northern Great Basin...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of a
slow-moving mid-level trough moving across the Northwest. Preceding
the trough, around 40 kt of mid-level southwesterly flow and a
weakly unstable air mass will support a couple loosely organized
clusters capable of producing severe wind gusts during the afternoon
and evening.

$$

--- Scorpio BBS
* Origin: (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 022001
SWODY1
SPC AC 022000

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Valid 022000Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND EXTREME
NORTHWEST IOWA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES...WESTERN KANSAS...AND
PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are still possible from the northern Plains
into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions today into tonight, as well
as across the southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley this
afternoon and early evening.

...20Z Update...
Much of the previous forecast remains generally on track, especially
for portions of the central High Plains, the TN Valley, and northern
New England.

However, appreciable uncertainty still exists regarding the
potential for focused corridors of severe across much of the
northern Plains into the Great Lakes. Relatively robust supercell
evolution has occurred along mesoscale surface baroclinic
boundaries, amid generally weak upper-level support, to support
instances of 2-3 inch diameter hail over central/eastern SD, as well
as instances of brief and modest rotation with storms over
northeastern IA. Please see MCDs 1440-1441 for short-term details of
convective evolution. However, these storms are moving roughly
normal to boundary orientation, putting the duration of higher-end
severe into question. At least for portions of the Upper Midwest
though, there is a modest signal of an MCS traversing a baroclinic
boundary along the WI/IL border for multiple hours. A locally
greater concentration of damaging gusts could accompany this
activity through the afternoon, though confidence in this scenario
is not overly high either. Many of the ongoing storms (especially
over SD) are occurring over portions of the open warm sector
relatively early in the diurnal heating cycle, casting uncertainty
regarding the impacts the ongoing storms will have on later
afternoon initiation and evolution along other mesoscale boundaries.
As such, prudence was exercised in favor of making only minor
changes to the outlook to reflect the latest guidance consensus.

..Squitieri.. 07/02/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026/

...SD to WI...
Morning water vapor imagery shows several weak and/or convectively
induced shortwave troughs moving across the northern Plains into the
Upper Midwest. This area will have widespread marginal to moderate
afternoon CAPE and dewpoints in the 60s to lower 70s. This leads to
a forecast of a large area of potential thunderstorm development,
but with weak/nebulous forcing and general height-rises aloft. As
such, the overall confidence in this forecast is not very high.

Storms are likely to focus along a boundary currently evident from
southern SD into central IA. Convection currently developing in
northern IA near the boundary should continue to intensify through
the afternoon and track into southern WI/northern IL with a severe
wind/hail threat.

Other intense thunderstorm clusters are expected to develop along
the SD/NE portion of the boundary by mid/late afternoon, also with a
risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts.

...Western KS...
Full sunshine and dewpoints in the 60s will lead to a region of
strong instability over western KS this afternoon. Most CAM
solutions suggest at least isolated thunderstorms form along the
KS/CO border and spread slowly eastward during the evening. A
deeply mixed boundary layer and sufficient CAPE suggest a risk of
damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells.

...TN Valley/Southern Appalachians...
A widespread very moist and unstable air mass is present today
across this region, with full sunshine leading to steep low-level
lapse rates and MLCAPE values over 4000 J/kg. Weak forcing under an
upper ridge limits confidence in timing/location of storms.
However, widely scattered thunderstorm development should eventually
result in merging outflows and the risk of gusty/damaging winds this
afternoon and early evening across the region.

$$

--- Scorpio BBS
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)