ACUS02 KWNS 300601
SWODY2
SPC AC 300559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected through the day
and into the evening hours Tuesday across parts of the Great
Lakes/Midwest. Damaging gusts and hail are most likely. Isolated
strong storms may also extend southwestward into parts of the
southern Plains with localized hail/wind.

...Synopsis...
A low-amplitude upper wave is noted in early-morning water-vapor
imagery across the Pacific Northwest, meanwhile, a diffuse lee
cyclone is noted in surface observations across the High Plains.
Over the next 24-48 hours, this cyclone will intensify as it
translates east across the Plains and into the Great Lakes region in
tandem with the upper wave. Thunderstorm coverage will be greatest
ahead of this low and along a trailing cold front with increasingly
sparse convective coverage with southwestward extent into the
Plains. Elsewhere across the country, isolated thunderstorms are
expected across portions of Southeast states within a plume of
returning rich low-level moisture as well as across the Southwest
and northern Great Basin as ascent associated with a weak upper
disturbance overspreads the region.

...Great Lakes...
Isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing
early Tuesday morning within the warm frontal zone of the
approaching cyclone. Based on latest high-res guidance, this
activity should largely exit the upper Great Lakes region by early
afternoon and allow for some degree of air mass recovery ahead of
the approaching cold front. Westerly 40-50 knot shear vectors will
likely support initially semi-discrete storm modes across portions
of the upper MS Valley and Lake Michigan vicinity by early afternoon
with an attendant large hail risk.

With time, upscale growth along the front into one or more linear
segments is expected - especially in close proximity to the surface
low where forcing for ascent will be greatest. Latest HREF/REFS
ensemble guidance continues to depict the strongest convective
signal across lower MI and downstream into the Lake Erie region
where low-level moistening should support MLCAPE values upwards of
1500 J/kg ahead of the low. Additionally, low-level warm advection
preceding the surface low will support 0-1 km SRH values on the
order of 250 m2/s2 across the lower Great Lakes region. While it
remains unclear whether or not discrete storms can develop within
the diffuse warm frontal zone ahead of any convective
lines/clusters, a tornado threat may materialize as convection moves
into the favorably sheared environment during the evening hours.

...Southern Plains...
Modest deepening of a lee trough/low across the southern High Plains
will support some tightening of a dryline across western OK into
adjacent portions of northwest TX as a cold front stalls across
northwest OK. Ample heating/mixing and weak low-level convergence
may sufficiently erode inhibition and provide adequate ascent along
the dryline and/or cold front to support at least a few isolated
thunderstorms. A combination of marginal deep-layer wind shear
(25-30 knots of effective bulk shear) and dry low-level conditions
may support an isolated hail and severe wind risk with the more
robust convection.

..Moore.. 03/30/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 310603
SWODY2
SPC AC 310601

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST
TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS...AND WESTERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern and central
Plains on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Severe wind gusts, large
hail, and a few tornadoes are the primary concerns. Isolated
strong/severe storms are also possible over parts of the upper Ohio
Valley into the Mid-Atlantic.

...Synopsis...
By 12 UTC Wednesday, a stalled frontal boundary will likely be
draped from the southern/central Plains eastward along the OH Valley
and into the Mid-Atlantic. Aloft, a progressive upper wave will
traverse the Southwest during the day, eventually ejecting into the
southern Plains around or after 00 UTC. The approach of the upper
wave will support lee cyclogenesis across southeast CO into western
KS, which will foster northward advection of low 60s dewpoints
(already noted in early-morning surface observations along the TX
coast) into OK and eastern KS by late afternoon. The intensification
of the low will also promote a northward advancement of the boundary
as a warm front into northern MO and possibly southern IA by late
evening, as well as the sharpening of a dryline across western OK
into northwest and western TX through the day. Strong to severe
thunderstorm potential will mainly be focused along/ahead of the
dryline and in proximity to the warm front as the upper wave begins
to eject during the early evening hours.

...Southern Kansas into Oklahoma and northwest Texas...

Initiation along the dryline appears likely during the 21-00 UTC
period across western OK into northwest TX as a combination of
diurnal heating and increasing synoptic ascent act to erode
inhibition. Elongated hodographs featuring effective bulk shear
values between 35-45 knots will support initially discrete
supercells capable of large/very large hail and tornadoes (though
uncertainty persists regarding low-level SRH through early evening).
Upscale growth is anticipated at some point during the evening
hours, though there is some uncertainty on when this transition will
occur and the primary threat becomes severe wind. Regardless, an
increase in the nocturnal jet will enlarge low-level hodographs and
maintain the tornado potential into the late evening hours.

...Eastern Kansas and western Missouri...

Latest guidance shows fairly strong consistency in the development
of semi-discrete convection along the lifting warm front across
eastern KS into western MO during the late afternoon/evening hours -
likely owing to weaker capping and focused low/mid-level warm
advection that is noted in most forecast soundings. Veering winds
within the warm frontal zone will support effective SRH values on
the order of 200-300 m2/s2, and surface-based LCLs near or below 1
km will likely support a tornado threat in addition to large/very
large hail. While the potential for robust supercells is noted, the
weak capping and focused ascent may promote thunderstorm clustering
and upscale growth (as hinted by 00z HRRR/RRFS solutions) that could
limit the longevity of these threats; however, the strong signal in
guidance for deep convection within a favorable environment warrants
an expansion of probabilities.

...Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic...

Diurnal heating along and focused low-level ascent along the stalled
boundary will likely support isolated to widely scattered convection
by mid-afternoon. While mid-level flow will be somewhat modest
compared to locations further west, sufficient hodograph elongation
should promote at least a few more organized storms capable of
posing a large hail threat. Deep-layer flow along the boundary may
promote clustering during peak heating with an attendant threat for damaging/severe winds.

..Moore.. 03/31/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 010600
SWODY2
SPC AC 010559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Midwest and
Great Lakes regions Thursday afternoon and evening/night. Damaging
winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes will all be possible.

...Synopsis...
A surface cyclone is forecast to deepen as it lifts northeastward
from the southern/central Plains into the upper MS Valley. This will
help advect a plume of seasonally rich moisture (upper 50s to low
60s dewpoints) northward into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions
through the day and into the overnight hours. Residual convection
emanating out of the mid-MS Valley during the morning hours is
forecast to re-intensify by mid to late afternoon. Concurrently, a
second round of thunderstorms is anticipated along the synoptic cold
front along the MS Valley by late afternoon. Both rounds of
thunderstorms will pose a risk of severe winds, tornadoes, and
sporadic large hail as the regional wind field intensifies through the day.

...Midwest/Great Lakes...

Latest guidance continues to depict broken convective bands
(residual from overnight convection over the Plains) moving out of
central and northern MO during the late morning/early afternoon
hours. As the synoptic cyclone lift north, moisture advection will
likely keep pace with the convection given 20-25 mph surface winds
and 45-55 knot flow within the lowest kilometer. Diluted diurnal
heating should support adequate (albeit very modest) destabilization
for a re-intensification of convection by the mid-afternoon hours.
Despite very limited buoyancy (MLCAPE values around 500 J/kg), the
combination of very strong low-level flow and 250-300 m2/s2 0-1 km
SRH will support organized lines with an attendant threat for severe
winds and tornadoes. The northern and eastern extent of the
wind/tornado threat remains somewhat nebulous and will be
conditional on the quality of downstream destabilization.

...Mid/Upper MS River Valley...

Air mass recover appears likely in the wake of early-morning
convection across northern MO into IA/western IL with most forecast
guidance depicting MLCAPE values upwards of 1000 to perhaps 1500
J/kg MLCAPE. Forcing along the cold front to the south of the
surface low will likely support semi-discrete convection that should
propagate east/northeast into northern IL by late afternoon and
evening. A combination of regionally higher buoyancy and strong
low-level flow (similar 0-1 km SRH values between 250-300 m2/s2 are
expected) will support a threat for semi-discrete cells capable of
large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes (including the
potential for significant tornadoes).

...Mid-South...

A moist and weakly capped environment across the Mid-South/lower OH
Valley will support convection through peak heating. However,
increasing displacement from stronger synoptic ascent and a lack of
more focused mesoscale ascent will likely result in more isolated
thunderstorm coverage. Nonetheless, deep-layer wind shear will
support organized convection, including the potential for a
supercell or two through early evening.

..Moore.. 04/01/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 100523
SWODY2
SPC AC 100521

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms producing hail and strong wind gusts will be
possible across portions of the central and southern Plains on Saturday.

...Southern/Central Plains...

Upper ridging will be in place over the central U.S. early Saturday.
A weak upper shortwave trough over the Great Basin will migrate
northeast through the period, along with several other lead
shortwave impulses ahead of a larger-scale western trough/upper low
near the Pacific coast. This will result in deamplification of the
upper ridge. Modest deep-layer southwesterly flow around 20-40 kt
will overspread much of the Plains. At the surface, low pressure
will deepen over Montana and eventually develop east across the
northern Plains late in the period, while lee troughing extends
southward across the High Plains. Increasing south/southeasterly
low-level flow will transport 50s and low 60s F dewpoints northward
toward the Mid-MO Valley, and westward toward western KS/OK/TX.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the surface
trough across eastern NM/western TX during the afternoon as modest
large-scale ascent overspreads the region. Cloud cover will limit
daytime heating, but steepening lapse rates and modestly increasing boundary-layer moisture will support MLCAPE to around 1000-1500
J/kg. Vertical shear will be weak but sufficient for at least
transient organized cells capable of producing large hail. As a
low-level jet increases during the evening, some consolidation of
updrafts could occur and linear segments/small bows could produce
locally strong wind gusts.

Further north, a more conditional risk is expected across the
central Plains. A warm front will lift northward across KS/NE during
the afternoon and into early evening. Forecast soundings indicate
capping will likely preclude much convective development within the
warm sector. However, if any cells are able to develop and become
sustained near the warm front, a severe risk will be possible. This
scenario is uncertain, and will maintain Level 1 of 5/Marginal risk. Additionally cells are possible during the evening across parts of
eastern CO/western KS/western NE near the surface trough. Locally
strong gusts and hail will be possible with these storms.

...Central CA...

Low-topped thunderstorms are possible in the north-central Valley
vicinity during the afternoon/evening as cooling aloft and
increasing ascent overspread the region ahead of an upper low over
the eastern Pacific. Instability is expected to remain weak (less
than 400 J/kg MLCAPE), but small hail and gusty winds may briefly
occur with stronger cells. As the upper low and a surface cold front
approach the central coast overnight, a line of low-topped
convection could bring gusty winds as well. Severe storms are not
expected at this time.

...Great Basin vicinity...

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected during
the afternoon and evening as a compact upper shortwave trough moves
over the region. Cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel
lapse rates and MLCAPE generally less than 500 J/kg. However, a well
mixed boundary layer with inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic
profiles and around 30 kt southwesterly flow through 600 mb could
support locally gusty winds. Overall, severe potential appears
limited.

..Leitman.. 04/10/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 110538
SWODY2
SPC AC 110537

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern and
central Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough will slowly pivot east over the western U.S. on
Sunday while upper riding envelopes the East. A couple of shortwave
impulses will migrate northeast from the Plains to the Upper
Midwest/MS Valley vicinity. Persistent midlevel southwesterly flow
across the central portions will maintain lee troughing over the
Plains. Meanwhile, southerly low-level flow will transport 60s F
dewpoints northward from TX to WI ahead of a surface trough/dryline
oriented across eastern NE into central KS, arcing south/southwest
into northwest OK and western TX. A surface low is forecast to move
across the Upper Midwest, where a boundary will be draped across
southern MN into WI.

...Central/Southern Plains...

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing Sunday
morning across OK/TX, with more isolated activity possible northward
into the Mid-MO Valley. This convection will have implications on
airmass recovery and thunderstorm development along the dryline
during the afternoon/evening. Some isolated wind/hail risk could
accompany this early activity as clusters and/or line segments move
across OK/TX during the morning.

In the wake of this morning activity, persistent southwesterly
mid/upper flow will maintain a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates
and mixing near the dryline should erode cloud cover over portions
of KS/OK/western TX. Large-scale ascent will remain nebulous, with a
lack of height falls precluding large-scale support for thunderstorm development. Nevertheless, modest confluence along the dryline is
forecast. Mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep lapse rates will support
up to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Furthermore, supercell wind profiles are
apparent in forecast soundings. This environment will conditionally
support supercells along the dryline by late afternoon into the
evening. However, given a lack of forcing, storm coverage is
uncertain. If storms can develop along the dryline, at least a
narrow corridor of large to very large hail potential will exist in
addition to damaging winds and a tornado or two.

Some guidance suggests morning convection could intensify or
redevelop across portions of north/central TX toward the ArkLaTex,
but this scenario remains very uncertain.

...South Texas/Rio Grande vicinity...

A conditional severe risk is apparent during the evening/nighttime
hours. A moderately unstable airmass will be in place, though
deep-layer flow will be somewhat weaker compared to further north. Nevertheless, some guidance suggests supercells will develop across
Mexico and could approach/cross the Rio Grande during the evening.
If this occurs, an initial risk for large hail and damaging gusts
will exist. With time, some potential for clustering could occur and
bring a continued risk for strong winds across portions of south-central/southern TX during the nighttime hours.

...Upper Midwest...

Thunderstorm development during peak heating is uncertain. If the
upper shortwave trough moves across the area too early, convective
development may be limited in the wake of that feature.
Nevertheless, a corridor of modest destabilization is expected ahead
of the surface low as cool temperatures aloft support steepened
midlevel lapse rates amid a moistening boundary layer. If storms
develop, isolated severe hail and wind are possible with stronger storms.

..Leitman.. 04/11/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 120548
SWODY2
SPC AC 120547

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Upper Mississippi
Valley and Great Lakes region, and across portions of the southern
Plains on Monday.

...Synopsis...

The persistent/stagnant southwesterly flow regime will continue from
the southern Plains to the Upper Midwest on Monday. Low-amplitude
upper ridging will move across the Upper Midwest during the day
ahead of a shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains. The
shortwave will shift east across the Great Lakes overnight.
Meanwhile, an upper trough from the northern Rockies to offshore the
southern CA coast will pivot eastward toward the Four Corners
region. At the surface, low pressure near the SD/NE border will
develop east along the MN/IA border to central WI. Meanwhile, lee
troughing will persist across the Plains. A dryline will extend
southwest from the Mid-MO Valley into western OK/TX, while a warm
front extends from southern MN into southern/central WI. These
boundaries will become a focus for severe thunderstorm development
during the afternoon/evening.

...Upper Midwest...

Strengthening southerly low-level flow will transport low to mid 60s
F dewpoints northward toward southern MN and southern/central WI.
Meanwhile, a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the
region. Capping will likely suppress thunderstorm activity for much
of the day as the shortwave upper ridge moves across the region. By
late afternoon/early evening, height falls are forecast to
overspread the area and thunderstorms are expected to develop as a strengthening low-level jet overspreads the warm front ahead of an eastward-progressing surface low. Initial thunderstorm activity may
be, or quickly become, elevated to the cool side of the warm front
given northeast storm motion. Nevertheless, supercell wind profiles,
cool temperatures/steep lapse rates aloft, and moderate to strong
instability will support large hail potential.

If surface-based warm sector storms can develop, supercells capable
of all hazards will be possible. While this evolution is uncertain,
it appears most probable from southeast MN toward
south/south-central WI. Convection will spread eastward with time
into MI, continuing to pose a risk for hail overnight.

...Southern Plains...

A conditional supercell environment will exist along/east of the
surface dryline from portions of western/central OK toward the TX
Big Bend. Given a lack of height falls across the region, capping
will likely suppress convection. However, strong heating along the
dryline will promote mixing. Confluence low-level flow along the
dryline coupled with strong instability and mixing may be sufficient
for a couple of storms during the late afternoon/evening as a modest
low-level jet develops. While conditional, if a storm can develop,
supercell wind profiles suggest large hail, strong gusts and perhaps
a tornado will be possible.

..Leitman.. 04/12/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 140557
SWODY2
SPC AC 140555

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ACROSS
EASTERN OHIO INTO PENNSYLVANIA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for large hail, strong wind
gusts, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across portions of
the southern Plains toward the Great Lakes on Wednesday afternoon
and evening.

...Synopsis...

A shortwave upper trough will eject from the central Plains to the
Great Lakes on Wednesday. A swath of enhanced southwesterly
deep-layer flow will extend from the southern/central Plains to the
Great Lakes/Midwest ahead of this feature. The southern extent of
the upper trough will move more slowly east, from the southern
Rockies to the southern High Plains. At the surface, low pressure is
forecast to be in the vicinity of the Mid-MO Valley/southeast NE
Wednesday morning, and will shift east/northeast along a warm front
across IA/southern WI/northern IL through evening. A trailing cold
front will move across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity
during the nighttime hours as the surface low continue to progress
northeast into Ontario. Further south, a dryline will extend
south/southwest across eastern KS into western OK and west-central
TX. A seasonally moist and unstable airmass will be in place ahead
of these surface features, focusing severe thunderstorm potential
during the afternoon and evening. A warm moist and unstable airmass
will extend eastward across portions of the upper Ohio Valley/Northeast.

...MO Valley to Lake Michigan vicinity...

Convection is likely to be ongoing across parts of the region
Wednesday morning. As a result, uncertainty exists regarding airmass
recovery and evolution of severe potential Wednesday
afternoon/evening. Persistent southwesterly flow and warm advection
ahead of the surface low will maintain a moist airmass. Convection
should redevelop by late afternoon/evening near the surface low and
along a surface boundary extending from eastern IA to near the IL/WI
border. Where heating can occur in the wake of early day convection,
MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg should develop. Supercell wind profiles
are evident in forecast soundings, especially near the surface low
where SRH will be enhanced. Initial cells may pose a risk for hail.
Tornado potential is a bit more uncertain given aforementioned
concerns about boundary-layer impacts from early day convection.
However, at least low potential should exist near the surface low
and warm front/outflow. A corridor of higher tornado probabilities
may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence in mesoscale
details and boundary layer recovery increases. During the evening,
upscale growth into an eastward-advancing line is expected as a
surface cold front begins to move east across the region, and
damaging winds will be possible.

...Southern Plains...

Isolated supercells are forecast to develop along the dryline in OK
into eastern KS/ and eventually portions of MO. Mid to upper 60s F
dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates (7.5-8 C/km) will
support 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon. Some weak capping is
noted around 850 mb, which may limit storm coverage in the absence
of stronger large-scale ascent. Nevertheless, elongated/straight
hodographs above 2-3 km within a favorable thermodynamic environment
suggests large to very large hail will be possible with storms that
develop. A couple of tornadoes also will be possible given modestly
enlarged and favorably curved low-level hodographs and around 150
m2/s2 SRH within a narrow corridor near the dryline.

...Upper Ohio Valley toward the Northeast...

Fast deep-layer west/southwesterly flow will overspread a moistening
low-level boundary layer. Strong heating will support steepening
low-level lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft will support
midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km. This will foster moderate
destabilization during the afternoon, promoting isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorm development. Damaging wind gusts and isolated
hail will be possible with this activity into the evening.

..Leitman.. 04/14/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 141740
SWODY2
SPC AC 141738

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
NORTHERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...AND FROM NORTHERN OHIO INTO PENNSYLVANIA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for large hail, strong wind
gusts, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across portions of
the southern Plains toward the Great Lakes Wednesday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
A positive-tilt upper trough will be located over the central Plains
on Wednesday and will move across the MS Valley and toward the Great
Lakes late. Moderate to strong mid to high level southwesterlies
will exist over much of the central and southern Plains, along with
cool temperatures aloft. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will hold over
the Southeast, with moderate winds aloft along the periphery of the
upper ridge extending from the OH Valley into the Northeast.

At the surface, low pressure will develop into IA as the upper wave
moves out of NE and KS. A front/dryline will extend south across
eastern KS, western OK and west central TX during the day.
Meanwhile, an elongated stationary front will extend from IA into
southern WI/MI and into the lower Great Lakes, with more of a warm
front into NY and southern New England. Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints
will remain roughly from TX into IA, with lower 60s F dewpoints
along the length of the stationary front.

...TX/OK/KS/IA/MO/IL...

A focused area of severe storm potential will develop south of the
developing low and along the dryline during the afternoon. Although
the wave will be moving away from OK/TX, the dryline should stall
with strong instability developing and MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg.
Minimal lift will be required near the dryline to initiate afternoon
storms, possibly before 21Z. Cells should develop from northwest TX
across OK and into southeast KS, and gain strength as 50-60 kt
effective shear acts upon them. Both supercells and bowing
structures will be possible, with areas of very large hail and
damaging winds expected. A few tornadoes may occur given the strong
instability and midlevel lapse rates, despite marginal low-level
wind fields.

Farther north, another zone of supercell potential is evident from
northern MO into IA and western IL late in the day ahead of the
shortwave trough. Here, deep-layer shear vector orientation will be
quite favorable for discrete cells, with hail likely. Any early day
storms may affect warm sector quality, but conditionally, a tornado
will be possible.

...From WI/IL eastward into PA...

Areas of heating and warm advection toward the frontal zone will
result in widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms erupting over IL,
IN, southern WI, northern OH and into western PA by 21Z. Favorable
deep-layer shear averaging near 40 kt and at least 1500 J/kg MUCAPE
along this zone will favor storms producing hail and locally
damaging gusts. Storm modes may be mixed.

..Jewell.. 04/14/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 150518
SWODY2
SPC AC 150516

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday
extending from southeast Missouri across the Ohio Valley and into
parts of New York.

...Synopsis...

An upper shortwave trough will spread east across the Midwest on
Thursday, becoming oriented from the Lower Great Lakes to the
central/southern Appalachians by Friday morning. At the surface, a
front will sag south/southeast across the Great Lakes. Modest
southwesterly low-level flow will maintain upper 50s to low 60s F
dewpoints from the Mid-South into New York/southern New England.
This should be sufficient for weak to moderate destabilization given
modestly steep midlevel lapse rates.

... New York vicinity...

Modest height falls are forecast across the region during the
afternoon and evening within a low-level warm advection regime.
Moderate to strong deep-layer mid/upper flow will overspread the
moistening boundary layer, supporting effective shear magnitudes of
30+ kt. Heating into the mid/upper 70s will lead to steepening
low-level lapse rates, while cool temperatures aloft (near -12 C at
500 mb) will support 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon. An accompanying
risk of isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts is expected.

...Mid-South and Ohio Valley...

Convection posing a risk for marginal hail may be going across parts
of the MO Bootheel vicinity Thursday morning. Persistent warm
advection should allow for airmass recovery by afternoon across this
area and thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop during the
afternoon with a continued risk for isolated hail and strong wind
gusts. Additional isolated convection also develop into the Ohio
Valley during the afternoon, though the thermodynamic environment
may be more marginal due to possible morning showers and cloud cover
lingering, limiting destabilization. However, if storms are able to
develop, locally strong gusts and marginal hail will be possible.

..Leitman.. 04/15/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 170526
SWODY2
SPC AC 170525

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY....

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds
and hail will be possible on Saturday across the upper Ohio Valley.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will move from the Upper Midwest to the Great
Lakes on Friday. A surface cold front will move from the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley to the Appalachians. In its wake, high pressure
will build into the Intermountain West and Plains.

Remnant showers/storms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of
the period ahead of the cold front. The extensive cloudcover and
potential outflow from Day 1 storms has resulted in considerable
uncertainty for the Saturday forecast. Most 00Z guidance shows
extensive outflow moving across Ohio during the morning. If this
occurs, additional storm development is not anticipated until
farther east across western Pennsylvania and southwest New York. If
these morning storms/outflow are less progressive, some moisture
advection ahead of the cold front is expected to bring somewhat
greater instability. This could result in some stronger storms, and
potentially sufficient instability for some transient supercell structures.

Some 00Z CAM guidance (NAM/NSSL WRF) depicts low to mid 60s
dewpoints across eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania on Saturday
afternoon. This seems to be the outlier, but if this does occur, a
more substantial severe weather threat, and a greater tornado threat
would exist across western Pennsylvania into southwest New York.
However, only weak instability seems most likely within this zone of
strong shear and therefore, expect damaging wind gusts as the
primary hazard.

..Bentley.. 04/17/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 220601
SWODY2
SPC AC 220600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible from southern Kansas into
southern Minnesota on Thursday. Large hail to very large hail,
damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible.

... Synopsis ...

A shortwave trough will move northeast along the eastern periphery
of a western US longwave trough. This shortwave will help maintain a
surface cyclone in southern Canada, while a secondary surface low
may develop across southern Minnesota late in the period. A
secondary shortwave will approach the southern Plains late in the
forecast period.

As the shortwave trough lifts northeast, a cold front will
accelerate east across the central and northern Plains. Ahead of the
surface front southerly winds will support mid 50F dewpoints as far
north as northern Minnesota and pockets of 60F dewpoints perhaps as
far north as southern-to-central Minnesota.

... Central and Northern Plains ...

Diurnal heating of the moist airmass ahead of the advancing surface
front will yield an increasingly unstable atmosphere during the
afternoon with the 20260422/00Z HREF showing ensemble mean SBCAPE
values approaching 2000 J/kg as far north as the greater Omaha, NE,
vicinity by 20Z. Interrogation of forecast soundings ahead of the
frontal boundary shows a strong cap stretching from Oklahoma
northward into Nebraska and Iowa. This cap does lift during the day
in response to increasing large-scale ascent from the approaching
trough, but thunderstorm initiation will likely require convergence
along the surface front.

This should occur by mid-afternoon anywhere from northeast Kansas
into southern Minnesota. Initially, deep-layer shear is not
particularly strong across the warm sector, but would still support
a combination of multi-cells and supercells. Given the degree of
instability and steep midlevel lapse rates, large-to-very-large hail
would be possible with any of these initial storms. A tornado or two
would also be possible given some low-level curvature in the
forecast hodographs associated with at least a modest low-level jet.

As the cold front continues to move east into the moist and unstable
airmass, additional thunderstorms should develop along the front,
eventually growing upscale into one or more linear systems and a
transition to a damaging wind threat. Vertical shear should improve
during the late afternoon and evening as the mid-to-upper-level
winds respond to the approach trough, yielding a continued tornado
threat with any persistent discrete cell.

... Oklahoma and Northwest Texas ...

A very unstable airmass will develop across the region to the east
of a dryline across western Oklahoma during the afternoon. Forecast
soundings show varying degrees of a cap across Oklahoma and
Northwest Texas. With the strongest large-scale ascent remaining
largely to the north of the area, forcing for ascent will likely
require strong dryline circulations. Given afternoon temperatures in
the 90Fs to the west of the dryline, there is at least some
potential for dryline circulations to break the cap and initiate at
least a couple of storms. Vertical shear profiles will support
supercells capable of very large hail. A highly conditional tornado
threat could develop with any discrete storm that is able to move
off the dryline and into the increasingly moist and unstable
environment to the east.

..Marsh.. 04/22/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 270533
SWODY2
SPC AC 270531

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GREAT PLAINS
THROUGH LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development is probable
across parts of the southeastern Great Plains through the lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys Tuesday afternoon and evening.
The evolution of a long-lived organized cluster accompanied by
potentially damaging wind gusts appears possible.

...Discussion...
Latest model output still indicates that the center of a fairly
broad surface cyclone may undergo further deepening while migrating
northeast of the upper Great Lakes region during this period,
particularly as it reaches the southeastern Hudson Bay vicinity,
near the southeastern periphery of an evolving mid-level low.
Surrounding this low, it appears that larger-scale mid-level
troughing, encompassing much of interior North America to the east
of the northern Rockies, may make slow further progress toward the
northern/mid Atlantic Seaboard, while perhaps undergoing some
amplification along an axis southward through the upper and middle
Mississippi Valley by late Tuesday night. This may support modest
surface wave development along a stalling cold front across the
southeastern Great Plains through lower Ohio Valley, and contribute
to suppression of mid-level ridging across northern portions of the
eastern Gulf Coast states.

Otherwise, mid-level ridging to the north of a prominent subtropical
high, still centered over southern Mexico, is likely to build across
the southern Rockies and adjacent Great Plains, downstream of a low
over the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes of the eastern
Pacific. Only a slow eastward progression of this low is forecast,
to the south of mid/upper ridging building northeastward into
British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest.

...Southeastern Great Plains into Tennessee Valley...

There is continuing spread within the latest model output, but a
consensus of guidance suggests that pre-cold frontal outflow,
generated by convection today through tonight, will remain a notable
feature into and through this period. It appears that the leading
edge of this air mass may curve from parts of the southern Appalachians/Tennessee Valley toward the Ark-La-Tex at 12Z Tuesday.
The extent to which this advances southward through the eastern Gulf
Coast states on its eastern flank, while retreating northeastward
through the lower Mississippi Valley on its western flank, remains
unclear. However, it seems probable that it will become a focus for intensifying thunderstorm development by late Tuesday afternoon in
response to boundary-layer destabilization along and to its south,
and forcing for ascent aided by low-level warm advection.

At the same time, a corridor of stronger pre-frontal surface heating
across parts of northeastern Texas through north central Arkansas
may become the focus for stronger convective development, in the
presence of larger CAPE supported by steeper mid-level lapse rates.
More strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air may continue to
inhibit more than isolated thunderstorm initiation farther to
southwest, along the dryline across central Texas into areas
near/south of Del Rio TX.

Strengthening shear with the approach of digging mid-level troughing
on the southern fringe of the westerlies is likely provide support
for a few supercells across the southeastern Great Plains, and
upscale growing and organizing clusters propagating into the lower
Mississippi Valley. There appears a consensus within the model
output that the intersection of this activity with the preceding
outflow boundary may ultimately provide the focus for the most
prominent evolving cluster, which may pose a risk for widespread
strong to severe gusts across parts of Arkansas through the lower
Mississippi Valley by late Tuesday evening.

Too many uncertainties exist to upgrade the categorical severe
threat at this time, but this remains possible in later outlooks for
this period.

..Kerr.. 04/27/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 010501
SWODY2
SPC AC 010500

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible across southern Georgia into northern/central Florida Saturday morning into early evening.

...FL vicinity...

An upper trough over the MS Valley vicinity will pivot east across
the Southeast on Saturday. Strong deep-layer west/southwesterly flow
associated with this system will overspread the region. Deep-layer
flow will weaken with southward extent across the FL Peninsula
during the afternoon, but 850-500 mb southwesterly flow is forecast
to remain robust across southern GA into northern/central FL for
much of the day. At the surface, a cold front will be oriented
across the NC/SC coastal plain, extending southwestward to near the
FL/GA line and offshore across the north-central Gulf. Ahead of the
front, a seasonally moist airmass will be in place.

Convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the cold front
Saturday morning. Current CAMs guidance varies with regard to storm
mode and intensity early in the period, with the 00z HRRR being a
notable outlier showing a small but well organized bowing MCS across
the eastern FL Panhandle and southwest GA. Most of the rest of the
CAMs guidance trends toward thunderstorm clusters. The low-level jet
will be favorable for organized convection, and an organized linear
system is possible, but uncertain. Downstream from early-period
convection, upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints will aid in modest destabilization. Where stronger heating can occur MLCAPE may
increase to around 1000-1500 J/kg. Deep-layer flow will remain
parallel to the surface boundary, so some potential for undercutting
convection by the front is possible. Nevertheless, given the
strength of deep layer flow and strong vertical shear amid
sufficient instability, severe storms posing a risk for damaging
wind gusts is possible. If any more discrete convection can develop,
isolated hail is also possible. The tornado risk is less certain
given a weakening low-level jet with time, questions regarding storm
mode, and overall uncertainty in low-level destabilization.

..Leitman.. 05/01/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 040535
SWODY2
SPC AC 040533

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday
afternoon and evening across portions of eastern Oklahoma and
northeast Texas into the Mid-South. Additional strong storms are
possible across parts of the Northeast.

...Synopsis...

Upper troughing centered on the north-central U.S. will phase with
an upper shortwave trough over the Southwest on Tuesday. As this
occurs, strong deep-layer west/southwesterly flow will develop
across the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley and into the
Northeast. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to extend from
southern Lower MI to a surface low over central OK. A dryline will
extend southwestward from the central OK low into central/southwest
TX. The cold front is expected to develop east/southeast through the
period, becoming oriented from the Northeast to southern AR and
northern TX by Wednesday morning. Two areas of severe potential are
expected to be focused ahead of the surface cold front, one across
parts of the southern Plains to the Mid-South and the second across
the Northeast.

...Southern Plains to the Mid-South...

Southerly low-level flow will transport 60s F dewpoints northward to
the east of the surface dryline and as far north as the MO Bootheel
vicinity. Some morning convection or cloud cover is expected across
parts of southern MO toward the MO/OH River confluence. Persistent
warm advection may result in scattered cloudiness across much of the
ArkLaTex and Ozarks vicinity as well. Nevertheless, modest cooling
aloft by late afternoon will aid in steepening midlevel lapse rates
atop the moist boundary layer, supporting MLCAPE in the 1000-2000
J/kg range. Instability will decrease with northeast extent into the
Mid-South. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by late
afternoon ahead of the surface cold front. Convection may tend to
become linear more quickly across the Mid-South where shear vectors
are parallel to the surface boundary. Further south across parts of
AR into northeast TX closer to the surface triple point, low-level
flow may be less veered and shear vectors supporting initially
discrete cells. Any convection that can remain
semi-discrete/cellular will pose a risk for large hail, strong wind
gusts, and a tornado or two. With time, convection will evolve into
linear segments as a low-level jet increases and the front begins to
develop southeastward.

The risk is more conditional along the dryline with southwestward
extent across TX. Forcing for ascent will be weaker across this area
and the main initiation mechanism will be mixing/dryline
circulations. If storms can develop, hail and strong gusts will be possible.

...Northeast...

A shortwave upper trough over the Great Lakes will develop
east/northeast across Ontario and Quebec through the evening. Strong
deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Northeast as this
occurs. Boundary layer moisture will be modest, with dewpoints
generally in the 40s to low 50s. However, cold temperatures aloft
will foster steep midlevel lapse rates, supporting modest
destabilization during the afternoon/evening (generally less than
1000 J/kg MLCAPE). Increasing large-scale ascent and the approach of
the surface boundary will result in isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development. Strong gusts will be the main risk with
storms given the strength of deep-layer flow and a well mixed
boundary layer. However, isolated hail also will be possible given
35+ kt effective shear and 500 mb temperatures near -18 C.

..Leitman.. 05/04/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 050509
SWODY2
SPC AC 050507

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1207 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TX
TO THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Wednesday
afternoon and evening across portions of Texas into the lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys/southern Appalachians. Damaging
winds, large hail, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible.

...Synopsis...

A positive-tilt large-scale upper trough will extend from the Upper
Great Lakes to the Southwest early Wednesday. The southern extent of
the trough will develop east toward the southern High Plains to
northwest Mexico by Thursday morning. Strong mid/upper southwesterly
flow ahead of the trough will overspread much of the southern and
eastern U.S. At the surface, a cold front will extend from the upper
Ohio Valley to central TX during the morning. The front is expected
to develop south/southeast through the period, becoming oriented
from the southern Mid-Atlantic to South TX by Thursday morning.
Ahead of the front, rich Gulf moisture will be in place across TX
into the Lower MS and TN Valleys, decreasing with northeast extent
into parts of the southern Appalachians.

...Northern TN Valley and southern Appalachians...

Forecast guidance varies, but some showers/thunderstorms may be
ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of AR into northern parts of
the TN Valley within a warm advection regime on the nose a gradually
weakening low-level jet. This activity will likely play some role in destabilization later in the day across parts of the TN Valley into
the southern Appalachians vicinity. Nevertheless, strong deep-layer
shear and a moist boundary layer will be sufficient for at least
some severe risk, including damaging wind gusts and perhaps hail.
Some tornado risk could also materialize given favorable low-level
shear and 0-1 km SRH increasing to greater than 250 m2/s2 during the afternoon/evening. However, this is less certain given
aforementioned instability issues and later storm timing into the
southern Appalachians.

...TX to MS/AL...

Further south from northeast TX into MS/AL, strong destabilization
is forecast where deep boundary layer moisture and stronger daytime
heating occurs. MLCAPE in the 2000-3000 J/kg range appear possible
in particular across northern LA into MS. Midlevel southwesterly
flow is expected to increase by late afternoon into the evening as
early capping will be overcome as the surface front begins to
develop south/southeast. Convection along the cold front may quickly
transition to linear/bowing segments given deep shear parallel to
the surface boundary. However, low-level flow in latest model
guidance does not appear to be overly veered, especially near
northern LA into MS. Forecast hodographs indicate enlarged,
favorably curved hodographs across this area. If open warm sector
supercells develop, a risk for tornadoes (perhaps a couple strong
tornadoes) will be possible. Furthermore, steepening midlevel lapse
rates are evident in forecast soundings, along with
elongated/straight hodographs and 45+ kt effective shear magnitudes.
This indicates any semi-discrete supercells could pose a risk for
large to very large hail. With time during the evening/nighttime
hours, convection should generally congeal into a line or bowing MCS
and spread eastward across the TN Valley toward the southern
Appalachians, posing a risk for damaging gusts. Higher tornado and
hail probabilities were considered across parts of the Lower MS
Valley, however, given uncertainty in storm mode and coverage of
discrete supercells, will hold at level 2 (Slight) risk for now.

Across portions of central TX overnight, some guidance suggests
convection may develop within low-level warm advection as the
western extent of the surface cold front dives southward across the
Edward Plateau vicinity. If storms develop, they would likely be
elevated. Nevertheless, a hail risk could materialize within the
conditional scenario late in the forecast period.

..Leitman.. 05/05/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 080603
SWODY2
SPC AC 080601

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Fri May 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and a few damaging wind gusts are
expected to develop across parts of the southern Plains Saturday
afternoon and evening. A marginal severe threat is forecast along
parts of the Gulf Coast.

...Southern Plains...

At mid-levels, cyclonically-oriented northwest flow will be in place
over the central U.S. on Saturday. Within the flow, a subtle
shortwave trough is forecast to move into the southern Plains by
early Saturday evening. Ahead of the approaching trough, low-level
moisture advection is forecast ahead of a cold front moving through
the central Plains. A dryline should be located near a triple point
and surface low extending southward into northwest Texas. By late
afternoon, surface dewpoints should be in the 60s F across most of
Oklahoma and north Texas with moderate instability in place.
Low-level convergence will likely become maximized near the triple
point in southwest Kansas and far northwestern Oklahoma, which
should enable convective initiation. Multiple storms are expected to
develop and move south-southeastward across western Oklahoma and
northwest Texas.

The most favorable environment for severe storms is forecast over
southwest Oklahoma during the late afternoon and early evening. RAP
forecasts soundings at 00Z east of the dryline near Altus have 0-6
km shear in the 35 to 40 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates
around 7.5 C/km. This suggests that supercell development with large
hail will be possible. At the surface, temperature-dewpoint spreads
are forecast to be around 25 degrees F. This will result in
high-based storms capable of isolated severe wind gusts. The severe
threat could persist into the early to mid evening, as convection
moves south-southeastward into northwest Texas.

...Gulf Coast Region...

West-southwest flow at mid-levels is expected on Saturday along the
Gulf Coast. A shortwave trough is forecast to move through south
Texas Saturday afternoon and into the Gulf Saturday evening. Another
shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Southeast. Warm-advection related storms are forecast to move southeastward
from southern Mississippi and southern Georgia into northern Florida
during the day. These storms could be associated with a marginal
wind-damage threat. Further west across the central and western Gulf
Coast, onshore flow should result in convection along coastal
convergence boundaries during the afternoon. Moderate instability
and sufficient deep-layer shear is forecast for isolated severe wind
gusts and hail.

..Broyles.. 05/08/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 130600
SWODY2
SPC AC 130559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected on
Thursday across parts of central and eastern Kansas, with more
isolated severe storms possible over parts of the lower Missouri
Valley, northern Ozarks and southern High Plains.

...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley/Northern Ozarks...

A mid-level shortwave ridge will move into the upper Mississippi
Valley and Ozarks on Thursday, as a subtle shortwave trough moves
into the Great Plains. Ahead of the trough, low-level moisture
advection will increase surface dewpoints into the 60s F over much
of the eastern half of Kansas. During the day, the airmass will
become moderately unstable as surface temperatures warm. In the
afternoon, low-level convergence will increase along a dryline in
southern and central Kansas supporting scattered thunderstorm
development. A few storms are expected to increase in intensity and
move eastward across central and eastern Kansas during the late
afternoon and early evening. MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range,
0-6 km shear around 40 knots and 700-500 mb lapse rate near 8 C/km
will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones of
greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur with any supercell that
can become intense. Isolated severe wind gusts will also be
possible. The storms are expected to move eastward into the lower
Missouri Valley during the evening and overnight period, and should
gradually increase in coverage as a low-level jet strengthens.
Although the storms are expected to become elevated, instability and
effective shear are forecast to be strong enough for a continued
isolated severe threat.

...Southern High Plains...

A subtle mid-level shortwave trough will move into the southern High
Plains on Thursday. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
near this trough over parts of west Texas Thursday afternoon. Nearly
dry adiabatic lapse rates are evident on forecast soundings. This
environment should support isolated severe wind gusts, as a few of
the developing cells mix the stronger flow down to the surface
during the mid to late afternoon.

..Broyles.. 05/13/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 140602
SWODY2
SPC AC 140600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with large to very large hail and severe wind gusts
will be possible Friday afternoon and evening in parts of the
central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley.

...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley...

West to west-southwesterly mid-level flow will remain in place on
Friday across the central U.S, as a subtle shortwave trough moves
into the central Plains. Ahead of this feature, moisture advection
will raise surface dewpoints into the mid to upper 60s F from the
eastern part of the central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri
Valley. A surface low will deepen over far western Oklahoma, with an
inverted trough extending northward into central Kansas and
northeastward into southeast Nebraska. Isolated convective
initiation is expected near and to the east of the surface trough
during the late afternoon. Convective coverage should gradually
increase in the evening as low-level warm advection strengthens.

By late afternoon, model forecast show a pocket of moderate to
strong instability over northeast Kansas. Forecast soundings at 00Z
in this area have MLCAPE in the 3500 to 4000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km
shear near 35 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be in
the 8 to 8.5 C/km range. This environment will be favorable for
supercells with large hail, and hailstones greater than 2 inches in
diameter will be possible within the more intense cores. Supercells
will also be capable of severe wind gusts. During the late evening
and overnight, a severe threat may continue over parts of the
central Plains, as the low-level jet strengthens. Isolated severe
storms will be possible in northwestern Kansas late in the period,
as a secondary shortwave approaches.

Further south into parts of western Oklahoma, a capping inversion is
forecast to be in place during the late afternoon and early evening.
However, lapse rates are forecast to be very steep with some models
showing 700-500 mb lapse rates near 9 C/km. In addition, moderate
deep-layer shear is forecast. If a cell can initiate in spite of the
cap, then supercells with large hail would be possible.

...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley...

Low-level moisture will gradually increase across the mid to upper
Mississippi Valley Friday afternoon and evening. Although
instability is forecast to remain weak, isolated thunderstorms may
initiate as a low-level jet moves into the region from the
southwest. By mid to late evening, MUCAPE is forecast to increase
into the 1000 to 1500 J/kg with effective shear near 40 knots over
much of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. For this reason,
isolated severe storms will be possible, with strong wind gusts and
hail as the primary threats.

..Broyles.. 05/14/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 150558
SWODY2
SPC AC 150556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of large to very large hail, wind damage and
perhaps a couple of tornadoes will be possible Saturday afternoon
and evening across parts of the central Plains. Scattered
thunderstorms will also pose potential for strong to severe winds
across the lower to mid- Missouri Valley.

...Synopsis...
A trough is expected to begin to deepen across the western US as
strengthening mid-level flow moves southward from the northern
Pacific Friday and Saturday. Downstream across the central US,
upper-level westerly flow will strengthen across the
central/northern Rockies with strengthening lee troughing across the
Plains. Persistent southerly flow through the southern and central
Plains should establish a broad warm sector across the Plains,
bounded to the west by a dryline and to the north by a diffuse warm
frontal zone. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected across
portions of the central high Plains near a developing surface low
and along the warm front, with additional thunderstorms possible
along the dryline from eastern Kansas to western Oklahoma. Scattered thunderstorms will also be likely across portions of the lower to
mid Missouri Valley.

...Central Plains...

As a short-wave trough moves across the central Plains late Saturday
afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near the
deepening surface low and the warm front by the afternoon across
eastern CO, northwest KS, and western NE. A broad warm sector will
be in place across much of the central Plains, with low to mid 60s
dew points reaching as far north as southern Nebraska. MLCAPE around
2000-2500 J/kg will be common by the afternoon. Initially, strong
deep layer shear and largely linear hodographs will support
potential for supercells capable of large to very large hail,
damaging winds, and a tornado. As the low-level jet strengthens into
the evening, low-level shear will increase but storm mode will also
likely shift to become more linear, with broken clusters/bowing
segments likely. A few of the mid-range hi-res CAMs depict a
stronger bowing segment moving across southern Nebraska into the
evening in concert with the increasing of the low-level jet. This
may present a more focused corridor of significant wind potential.
Confidence at this time in the exact location of this remains low.
Higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if trends align.

...Western Oklahoma/northwest Texas...

Much of western Oklahoma and northwest Texas near the dryline will
remain capped at the base of the EML. Strong daytime heating and
favorable residence time within the dryline circulation may promote
an isolated supercell or two with potential for large to very large
hail and damaging winds by the late afternoon. Signal for
development is most favorable near the Red River in southern
Oklahoma where CAM guidance suggests potential and HREF calibrated
thunder probabilities are highest.

...Midwest/OH Valleys...

A leading mid-level shortwave trough with an enhanced belt of 50 kts
winds aloft will promote widely scattered thunderstorm development
into the mid- to upper Missouri Valley Saturday afternoon. MUCAPE
values on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg should support deep
convection, and effective bulk shear values near 30 knots within the
warm frontal zone may allow for organized convection with an
attendant threat for damaging wind.

..Thornton.. 05/15/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 210552
SWODY2
SPC AC 210550

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible across portions
of the southern Plains with potential for large hail and damaging wind.

...Synopsis...
Two weak shortwaves, with one wave in central Plains and a secondary
wave into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys, are forecast within the
broader Northern Rockies trough through afternoon on D2/Friday. A
surface low will be located across eastern New Mexico/southeastern
Colorado with a front lifting northward into Kansas and a dryline
extending southward into southwestern Texas. Another surface low
will develop across the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys with a warm
front lifting northward across Kentucky. These features will be the
focus for scattered thunderstorm development in both regions by the afternoon/evening.

...Southern and Central Plains...

Scattered thunderstorm development is expected across the Cap Rock
near the dryline in Texas and back into eastern New Mexico along the
high terrain Friday afternoon and evening. Steep low to mid-level
lapse rates will be in place across much of the region from eastern
New Mexico into western Texas. Dew points in the mid 50s to low 60s
and daytime heating will yield moderate instability amid deep layer
shear around 30-40 kts. This will promote initial supercells across
the high terrain with potential for additional multi-cell clusters
through time. These may grow upscale into an MCS into western
Oklahoma by the evening. The primary risk will be for large hail
before the damaging wind risk increases into the evening.
A few additional strong thunderstorms may extend into portions of
southern Kansas. The thermodynamic environment becomes less
favorable with northern extent due to widespread cloud cover and
morning precipitation. However, increasing mid-level flow and shear
may allow for a few organized cells with potential for large hail
and strong to severe wind further north.

...Tennessee and Ohio Valleys...

A warm front will lift across northern Tennessee into Kentucky
through the afternoon on Friday, with 60-70s dew points streaming
northward ahead of the approaching mid-level wave. Modest height
falls are expected across western Kentucky into the Ohio Valley,
with an increase in 850-700 mb flow. Widely scattered thunderstorms
are expected overnight into Friday morning. An increase in this
activity can be expected as a vorticity maxima and increasing large
scale ascent into the afternoon occurs. Though instability will be
marginal, guidance does suggest a plume of higher theta-e air may
advect into western/central Kentucky by the afternoon. In addition,
guidance suggests a few transient supercells will be possible with
potential for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado.

..Thornton.. 05/21/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 290559
SWODY2
SPC AC 290557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected on
Saturday from parts of western and central Nebraska into southern
and western South Dakota. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also
be possible in the northern High Plains, and from parts of the
central Plains into the southern High Plains.

...Western and Central Nebraska/Southern and Western South
Dakota/Eastern Wyoming/Northeast Colorado/Southeast Montana...

At mid-levels, a low will remain over southwestern Wyoming on
Saturday, as a shortwave trough moves into the central High Plains.
At the surface, a trough will deepen over the central and northern
High Plains. Surface winds will be from a southeasterly direction
over much of Nebraska and South Dakota, which will result in
moisture advection throughout the day. By afternoon, surface
dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to moderate instability over
much of the central Plains extending northwestward into the northern
High Plains. Low-level convergence is forecast to become maximized
near a well-developed dryline. In response, scattered thunderstorms
are expected to develop near the dryline in the afternoon and move
north and northeastward across western and central Nebraska into
southern South Dakota.

To the east of the dryline and near the moist axis, MLCAPE is
forecast to increase into the 1500 to 3000 J/kg range by late
afternoon. Forecast soundings at 00Z in west-central Nebraska
suggest that 0-6 km shear will be in the 30 to 40 knot range with
700-500 mb lapse rates around 8 C/km. This will be favorable for
supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts. The severe threat
is expected to persist into the mid to late evening, as a cluster of
strong to severe storms moves northeastward across central Nebraska
and south-central South Dakota. Widely-spaced severe thunderstorms
will also be possible across parts of southeast Montana, but
instability is forecast to be weaker which will keep any severe
threat more localized.

...Kansas/Oklahoma/West Texas...

West-southwesterly mid-level flow will be located over much of the south-central U.S. on Saturday. At the surface, a sharply defined
dryline is forecast to be located from central Kansas
south-southwestward into western Oklahoma and west-central Texas. To
the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will
contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. Along and to the
east of much of the dryline, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the
30 to 40 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This
environment will support an isolated severe threat. Hail and strong
wind gusts will be the primary hazards. Forcing is expected to be
relatively weak which will keep storm coverage isolated.

..Broyles.. 05/29/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 300602
SWODY2
SPC AC 300600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe gusts will be possible
Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the mid Missouri
Valley. Isolated severe storms will be possible in parts of the
Dakotas, and from central Kansas into Missouri.

...Northern Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Central
Plains/Northern Ozarks...

At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move northward across the
northern Plains as heights rise across much of the central U.S. At
the surface, a dryline will sharpen during the day from
south-central South Dakota southward into east-central Nebraska and
central Kansas. To the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints will
range from the mid 60s F further north in southeast South Dakota to
near 70 F southward into southeast Nebraska and far northwest
Missouri. As surface temperatures warm within the moist sector,
moderate instability will develop across the mid Missouri Valley by
afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will remain weak over most of
the region, model forecasts suggest that a northwest-to-southeast
zone of low-level convergence will become focused during the
afternoon to the east of the dryline. This will support scattered
thunderstorm development, with the greatest convective coverage
expected from southeast South Dakota into eastern Nebraska and
western Iowa.

Forecast soundings south and southwest of Omaha in the late
afternoon have MLCAPE in the 3000 to 3500 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear
near 30 knots, and low to mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km. This
environment will support supercells with large hail and severe wind
gusts. The more dominant supercells could produce hailstones greater
than 2 inches in diameter. The severe threat is expected to continue
into the evening. A potential for isolated severe storms will also
be possible over parts of the western and central Dakotas, along an
axis of low-level moisture and instability.

Further south into parts of eastern Kansas and west-central
Missouri, a moist airmass will be in place on Sunday with surface
dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s F. This will result in
moderate to strong instability by afternoon with MLCAPE likely to
peak in the 3000 to 5000 J/kg range over parts of eastern Kansas and
western Missouri. Although large-scale ascent will be limited,
isolated storms could initiate in areas where low-level convergence
becomes maximized. If a cell or two can develop and persist in the
late afternoon or early evening, then an isolated severe threat
would be likely. Hail and isolated severe wind gusts would be the
primary threats.

..Broyles.. 05/30/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 310601
SWODY2
SPC AC 310559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected
Monday afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains.
Isolated severe wind gusts and hail will also be possible from the
parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley and northern Ozarks
southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley and Southeast.

...Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley...

Mid-level heights will rise on Monday across the central U.S. as
southwesterly mid-level flow remains in place over the Rockies and
High Plains. At the surface, a low will deepen in far southwest
Kansas, with upslope easterly flow in place over much of the central
Plains. An axis of low-level moisture and instability is forecast to
setup from central Kansas west-northwestward into northeastern
Colorado, where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 50s F. As
surface temperatures warm during the day, convective initiation will
take place in the higher terrain of east-central Colorado.
Additional storms are expected to develop further east across the
central High Plains along and near the instability axis.

Forecast soundings near the instability axis at 00Z have MLCAPE in
the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear near 40 knots. In
addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 8 C/km.
This environment will support supercells with large hail and severe
wind gusts. The potential for severe wind gusts should increase
during the evening as a cluster of cells move east-northeastward
across the central High Plains.

Further east and northeast into parts of eastern Kansas, eastern
Nebraska and eastern South Dakota, the presence of the mid-level
ridge will keep convective coverage more isolated. Beneath the
ridge, surface dewpoints are forecast to be from the mid 60s F north
to the lower 70s F south, which will result in an axis of moderate
to strong instability by afternoon. If storms can initiate and
persist in spite of the weak forcing, then a severe threat would be
expected. Severe wind gusts and hail would be the primary threats.

...Lower Missouri Valley/Northern Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley/Southeast...

A large-scale mid-level cyclonic flow pattern will be in place on
Monday across much of the eastern U.S. At the surface, a moist
airmass will be located from the lower Missouri Valley southeastward
into the mid Mississippi Valley and Southeast. Surface dewpoints
will be in the upper 60s F to lower 70s F. This will contribute to
an axis of moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Some model
forecasts move a shortwave trough, and an associated morning
convective system southward across the mid Mississippi Valley. Other
solutions keep convective coverage more isolated. This points to
spatial uncertainty concerning any severe threat. If the more
aggressive solutions pan out, then the wind-damage and hail threat
could be greatest from parts of western Tennessee southward into the
central Gulf Coast states. An isolated wind-damage and hail threat
may also extend eastward into northern Georgia and South Carolina,
along an east-to-west axis of instability.

..Broyles.. 05/31/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 010728
SWODY2
SPC AC 010727

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

CORRECTED TO ADD WIND PROBABILITY GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts and potentially an
isolated tornado threat are expected on Tuesday afternoon and
evening in parts of the northern Plains. Strong wind gusts and hail
will also be possible in parts of the southern and central High
Plains. A few severe wind gusts may also occur from southern Georgia
into northern and eastern Florida.

...Northern Plains...

A mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward on Tuesday over
the top of a moist and unstable airmass located in the northern
Plains. At the surface, a south-to-north corridor of low-level
moisture will be in place across the Dakotas. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop along the western edge of the moist sector
during the afternoon, being supported by large-scale ascent
associated with the shortwave trough. Storms will likely increase in
coverage during the late afternoon and early evening, with multiple
small storm clusters moving northeastward across the region.

Along and near the axis of low-level moisture, MLCAPE is forecast to
increase into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range by afternoon. Within this
moist airmass, the most favorable environment for severe storms is
forecast near the mid-level trough in central North Dakota. Forecast
soundings around Bismarck at 21Z have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 45
knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km, suggesting that
supercells with large hail will be possible. In addition, late
afternoon forecast soundings have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in
the 200 to 250 m2/s2 range, which could support an isolated tornado
threat. Severe wind gusts would also be possible with any organized
clusters that can persist from late afternoon into the evening.

...Southern and Central High Plains...

Southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place on Tuesday in the
southern and central Plains, over the western edge of the moist
sector. Although model forecasts suggest that large-scale forcing
will be limited in most areas, some models forecast a corridor of
maximized low-level convergence in the afternoon over eastern
Colorado and eastern New Mexico. This would support isolated to
scattered thunderstorm development, with storms moving
east-northeastward across the southern and central High Plains
during the afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings to the east of
this axis of low-level convergence during the late afternoon have
0-6 km shear in the 20 to 25 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates
near 8 C/km. This suggests that hail will be possible. Isolated
severe wind gusts may also occur, especially if a convective cluster
can become somewhat organized during the early to mid evening.

...Northern and Eastern Florida/Southern Georgia...

An upper-level trough will move southward into the Southeast on
Tuesday, as a cold front advances southward into southern Georgia.
Along and to the south of the front, surface dewpoints from the mid
60s to lower 70s F will contribute to the development of moderate
instability by afternoon. Within this unstable airmass, low-level
lapse rates will become steep during the mid to late afternoon,
which may support an isolated wind-damage threat with the stronger
multicells. An isolated potential for severe wind gusts will also be
possible in the afternoon along sea breeze boundaries near the coast
of northern and eastern Florida.

..Broyles.. 06/01/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 020549
SWODY2
SPC AC 020547

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large to very large hail and severe wind gusts
will be possible Wednesday afternoon into night in parts of the
northern Plains into upper Mississippi Valley. More sporadic
occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts appear possible
across parts of the central High Plains and southwest Texas.

...Synopsis...

A mid/upper-level low initially over southern Saskatchewan Wednesday
morning is forecast to shift east into southern Manitoba through the
forecast period. At the same time, an attending belt of enhanced mid/upper-level winds will overspread the northern Plains into upper
MS Valley, along with a corridor of modest height falls. Elsewhere,
a lower-latitude short-wave trough will drift north-northeast from
the southern into central High Plains.

At the surface, low pressure linked with the Canadian upper low will
move through the same areas, while a trailing cold front pushes
through the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley. A secondary
surface low is expected to form along the front in central SD
Wednesday afternoon with the trailing portion of the boundary
settling into the NE Panhandle and southeast WY.

...Northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley Wednesday afternoon/night...

Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing Wednesday morning across
portions of ND in association with a subtle short-wave trough moving
through the area. Model guidance is suggestive that a subset of the
early-day convection could linger through the morning into early
afternoon across portions of eastern ND into northwest MN, which
could ultimately limit the degree of air mass destabilization in
those areas. However to the south of the associated cloud
debris/convective outflow, stronger daytime heating in conjunction
with boundary layer dewpoints in the 60s and steep mid-level lapse
rates will support a moderately unstable air mass with MLCAPE of
1500-2500 J/kg.

Modest height falls aloft will combine with convergence along the
cold front and preceding convective outflow boundary to support
robust thunderstorm development by mid/late afternoon across
portions of south-central and southeast ND into central and
northeast SD. Forecast soundings indicate the presence of a
vertically veering wind profile with 35-40 kt of effective bulk
shear, which will support organized storm modes, including
supercells. Elongated hodographs resulting from the presence of
relatively strong flow above 8-9 km will favor a conditional threat
for two-inch or greater hail with any sustained supercells. In
addition, some tornado threat could materialize by late afternoon
into early evening across portions of southeast ND into northeast SD
from the vicinity of the expected outflow boundary to ahead of the
secondary surface low, where some enhancement of low-level shear is forecast.

Increasing convergence along coalescing cold pools owing to a
strengthening low-level jet is expected to support upscale growth of
storms into an MCS Wednesday evening across portions of eastern SD
and western MN, with an associated risk for damaging wind gusts.

...Southern and Central High Plains Wednesday afternoon/evening...

The models indicate the potential for early-day storms across
portions of the southern High Plains owing to forcing for ascent
associated with the short-wave trough. Associated cloud cover is
expected to limit destabilization potential in those areas, with
comparably greater instability developing across the central Plains,
and across portions of southwest TX. The migration of the short-wave
trough into the central high Plains by afternoon into evening will
support clusters of diurnally enhanced thunderstorms in those areas,
with an attendant risk for sporadic large hail and damaging winds.
Weakening vertical shear with southward extent from the northern
into central Plains is expected to limit the potential for a more
organized severe-weather episode. Additional strong to severe storms
appear possible along the favored terrain of southwest TX, where
isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds may occur.

..Mead.. 06/02/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 030532
SWODY2
SPC AC 030530

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very hail and damaging
winds are possible from parts of the northern High Plains into lower
elevations of the northern and central Plains Thursday afternoon
into night. More isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging
winds appear possible in parts of the upper Midwest and upper Great Lakes.

...Synopsis...

A low-amplitude, cyclonic flow regime will be maintained across the north-central U.S. with several embedded disturbances moving through
that airflow pattern. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to
move from the upper MS Valley into the upper Great Lakes with that
boundary trailing southwest through the mid MO Valley to eastern WY,
where it will link with a lee cyclone. A dryline/lee trough will
extend south from the low pressure through the central and southern
High Plains.

...Northern and Central Plains...

A short-wave trough embedded in the cyclonic flow initially over the
northern Rockies Thursday morning will shift into the northern High
Plains by afternoon. Strengthening mid-level winds and forcing for
ascent downstream from that feature will progressively overspread a
moist and moderately unstable (MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg) upslope regime
present across portions of southeast MT, northeast WY, and western
SD, to the north of the surface boundary. Those processes will
contribute to initial storm development in those areas by mid
afternoon with the kinematic environment favoring supercells capable
of large to very large hail and perhaps a tornado or two.

Additional storm development will be possible farther east along the
front in central/eastern SD and northern NE amidst a moderately
unstable environment (MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg) with weakening
vertical shear and mid-level lapse rates with eastward extent. As
such, a mix of multi-cell and some supercell structures appear
possible with an associated risk for large hail and severe wind gusts.

Those two separate regimes may consolidate into one or more MCSs
Thursday evening/night, with a continued risk for damaging winds and
sporadic large hail.

Elsewhere, diurnally enhanced storms will be possible south along
the lee trough into northeast CO, as well as ahead of a sheared
vorticity maximum moving through portions of northeast KS, eastern
NE, and IA. Steep lapse rates and around 30 kt of deep-layer shear
may support isolated, high-based storms in the former area with some
wind and hail threat. Poorer mid-level lapse rates and weaker
vertical shear expected in the latter areas would limit
severe-weather potential to mainly wet microburst activity. Model
soundings do show some low-level hodograph curvature, so a brief
tornado cannot be ruled out.

...Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes...

Relatively poor mid-level lapse rates are forecast across the
pre-frontal warm sector Thursday; however the presence of
boundary-layer dewpoints in the low to mid 60s will largely
contribute to a narrow axis of MLCAPE up to 1000-1500 J/kg by
afternoon. The glancing influence of a mid-level low moving into the
northwest Ontario coupled with convergence along the front are
expected to foster widely scattered thunderstorms by mid to late afternoon.

The presence of 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear will be sufficient for
multi-cells and transient supercell structures capable of locally
damaging wind gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail. Modest
strengthening of the low-level jet is noted across northern WI into
the western UP of MI late Thursday afternoon into evening, which
could yield sufficient low-level shear for some tornado risk. No
probabilities will be included in this forecast due to uncertainty
in the degree of instability in those areas.

..Mead.. 06/03/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 040523
SWODY2
SPC AC 040521

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA...NORTHERN KANSAS... MUCH OF IA...INTO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail,
damaging winds with potentially significant gusts, and perhaps a
couple of tornadoes are expected Friday afternoon into night across
portions of the central Plains into upper Great Lakes.

...Synopsis...

A series of weak, mid-level disturbances will translate from the
northern Plains into the upper Great Lakes, ahead of a building
ridge from central Canada into the northern Plains. At the surface,
the primary focus for strong to severe thunderstorm development is a
front, which is expected to stretch from the western UP of MI
southwest through the mid MO Valley into the central High Plains by mid-afternoon Friday. A surface low is forecast to develop along the
front over south-central NE or north-central KS, with a dryline
extending south-southwest from that feature into northwest OK.

...Central Plains into the Upper Great Lakes...

Latest guidance is suggestive that the combination of steep
mid-level lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints in the upper 60s
to low 70s will support strong instability along and south of the
NE/IA segment of the front with HREF mean SBCAPE as high as
3000-4000+ J/kg. Forecast instability decreases with northeastward
extent into the upper Midwest, due in part to the potential for
early-day storms and lingering cloud cover.

While mid-level heights are forecast to rise through the day across
the central Plains, strong heating west of the dryline and south of
the surface front should sufficiently erode the cap for isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon into
early evening in the vicinity of the triple point over south-central
NE. Locally backed near-surface winds in that area will offset
somewhat marginal mid-level flow to yield 30-35 kt of deep-layer
shear, which will support supercell storm modes, given the degree of instability. Large to very large hail and perhaps a couple tornadoes
will be possible in the early life cycle of the storms, with a
subsequent transition to more of a damaging wind threat (with
significant gusts possible) by mid/late evening.

Additional severe storms are expected farther east along the front
into IA during the afternoon and evening hours with strong
instability and modest vertical shear supporting a threat for large
to very large hail and severe wind gusts.

Should subsequent model guidance show higher confidence in more
concentrated storm development along the NE/IA segment of the front,
an upgrade to a level 3/Enhanced Risk may be considered.

Farther northeast along the front across the upper Midwest, the
diffuse nature of the boundary casts some uncertainty on exactly
where the favored area for diurnally enhanced storm development will
be. Nonetheless, the presence of a moderately unstable air mass and
modest deep-layer shear will be supportive of a few severe storms
capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. An isolated
severe-weather threat may continue to spread east into the upper
Great Lakes Friday evening into night, driven largely by warm
advection along a westerly low-level jet.

..Mead.. 06/04/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 050538
SWODY2
SPC AC 050536

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are
possible from portions of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the
Northeast, and over the northern High Plains. More isolated
occurrences of large hail and damaging winds are possible across
parts of the southern Plains and the lower Missouri Valley into Mid
Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...

A short-wave trough initially from James Bay into the Great Lakes
Saturday morning is forecast to amplify while translating through
southern Quebec and the Northeast. Associated mid/upper-level jet
streaks within the base of the strengthening trough are forecast to
overspread the upper OH Valley through southern New England,
enhancing vertical shear and forcing for ascent in those areas.
Elsewhere, a jet streak will round the base of a deep trough over
the Canadian Rockies into Pacific Northwest, with the trough axis
pivoting east through the Columbia Basin toward the northern
Rockies. Meanwhile, a lower-latitude trough will move through the
southern and central Plains, with a belt of enhanced mid/upper-level
flow extending from southwest TX through the ArkLaTex into Ozark
Plateau during the peak of the diurnal heating cycle.

At the surface, an initially diffuse cold front associated with the
Great Lakes/Northeast short-wave trough will slowly advance through
the Great Lakes, northern OH Valley, and St. Lawrence Valley into
northern New England. Over the northern High Plains, a surface low
is forecast to deepen along a cold front emerging from the northern Rockies.

...Great Lakes and OH Valley into the Northeast...

Areas of showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing
Saturday morning within a broad zone of warm advection and moisture
flux occurring along a westerly low-level jet. A subset of those
thunderstorms are likely to persist and gradually intensify from
late morning into afternoon. Additional, diurnally enhanced storms
are expected to develop within preferred zones of confluence within
the weakly capped warm sector, which will destabilize from
west-to-east over the course of the day.

The 00z HREF indicates a corridor of mean SBCAPE of 1000-1500+ J/kg
developing by afternoon from the OH Valley into southern New
England, which will coincide with steadily strengthening deep-layer
shear. As such, the potential exists for organized storm modes,
including bowing line segments and supercells capable of swaths of
wind damage and large hail during the afternoon and evening hours.
The greatest supercell potential is expected to evolve across the
upper OH Valley, where the large hail is most probable, along with
the threat for a brief tornado or two.

...Northern High Plains...

Late-arriving forcing for ascent and more robust boundary-layer
moisture content are expected to delay thunderstorm development
until late afternoon or evening in the vicinity of the surface low
and front situated along the MT-ND Border. The presence of a
moderately unstable air mass and steadily strengthening vertical
shear are expected to support supercell storm modes with an
attendant threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. The
severe-weather threat may continue into the overnight hours,
centered along the low-level jet axis.

...Red River Valley into southwest Texas...

As mentioned in the synopsis, a belt of enhanced mid-level flow is
forecast within the southern/southeastern periphery of the upper
low, which will enhance vertical shear to some extent. Slightly
cooler temperatures aloft coupled with a warm and moist boundary
layer will support a moderately unstable air mass in areas
unaffected by early storms and lingering cloud cover. Forecast
soundings indicate relatively weak capping, which should permit
increasing storm coverage by afternoon along any pre-existing
boundaries. The overall environment appears supportive of multicell
storms capable of isolated occurrences of large hail and locally
strong wind gusts during the afternoon and evening hours.

...Lower Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys...

Moderate to strong afternoon instability is forecast to develop
along and south of the trailing surface front or convective outflow
boundary remnant from Friday night thunderstorms. Weak low-level
warm advection coupled with the growing influence of a mid-level
trough approaching from the southwest are expected to support widely
scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon. While
vertical shear is expected to remain relatively weak, the degree of
instability will support vigorous up/downdrafts capable of
marginally severe hail and/or locally damaging wind gusts.

..Mead.. 06/05/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 070600
SWODY2
SPC AC 070558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING...NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered severe storms capable of large to very
large hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two are possible Monday
afternoon and evening in northeast Colorado, southeast Wyoming, and
the southern Nebraska Panhandle. Additional, more isolated
occurrences of large hail and damaging winds will be possible from
the Canadian border into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Sporadic
damaging winds may occur from the Ozark Plateau into the Mid-south.

...Synopsis...

A mid-level jet streak and associated channeled vorticity maximum
initially from the northern Rockies into northern High Plains will
lift northeast into Manitoba, ahead of an amplifying short-wave
trough moving through the Pacific Northwest into northern Rockies.
Elsewhere, loosely organized troughing initially along the MS Valley
will shift northeast into the Great Lakes and OH Valley.

At the surface, a front initially stretching from the central
Dakotas to low pressure over western KS is expected to weaken
through the day in response to falling pressures across the northern
Rockies. A weak cyclone is expected to persist over southwest KS or
northwest OK, with a dryline extending southwest into western TX.

...Great Plains...

With the early-day passage of the lead short-wave trough through the
northern High Plains, mid-level heights may rebound slightly during
the afternoon, with negligible forcing for ascent indicated in model
guidance. As such, the most probable location for isolated to widely
scattered severe-storm development appears to be along favored
terrain from north of the Palmer Divide to along the Cheyenne Ridge.
There, moist upslope flow will become established by afternoon,
beneath a plume of steep lapse rates, yielding MLCAPE of 1000-1500
J/kg. Vertical shear is expected to strengthen through the day with
effective bulk shear increasing to around 50 kt by late afternoon
into early evening. As such, the potential will exist for supercells
capable of large to very large hail and perhaps a brief tornado or
two. The severe-threat may move into the adjacent High Plains Monday
evening before the storms weaken.

Across the lower elevations of the Plains there is considerably more
model spread in the timing and location of storms through the
forecast period, likely as a result of the weak forcing. The
residual surface front from eastern SD through central NE into
western KS, and south along the dryline into the OK/TX Panhandles
will be viable locations for diurnally enhanced storms amidst a
moderate to strongly unstable air mass. As such, isolated
occurrences for large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible.
Stronger deep-layer shear is forecast from northern KS into the
northern Plains, which may support a longer-lived, more organized
storm threat. However, given the model variability mentioned above,
no additional level 2/Slight Risk areas will be highlighted with
this forecast.

Finally, it appears a separate, elevated thunderstorm regime could
materialize early Tuesday morning from parts of eastern MT through
northern ND, where some large hail threat could develop.

...Ozark Plateau into the Mid-South...

A number of models indicate the potential for a complex of
thunderstorms to be ongoing Monday morning across portions of the
Ozark Plateau, aided by low-level warm advection along a modest
low-level jet. That activity is expected to continue east/southeast
through the day, with some potential for cold pool organization and
related damaging wind potential as the system encounters a moist and
moderately unstable air mass.

..Mead.. 06/07/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 110535
SWODY2
SPC AC 110534

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE AND WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered to scattered severe storms capable of mainly
damaging wind gusts are expected from western New England and the
Mid-Atlantic to eastern Tennessee and western North Carolina Friday
afternoon and evening. Isolated occurrences of large hail appear
possible from central New Mexico into far west Texas.

...Synopsis...

A short-wave trough and attending 50 kt mid-level jet streak
initially from the Upper Great Lakes into mid MS Valley are forecast
to weaken while progressing through the OH Valley to along the St.
Lawrence Valley. At the surface, a cold front initially from
southwest Ontario to near the confluence of the OH and MS Rivers at
12z Friday will advance east/southeast into New England and
Mid-Atlantic, where it will merge with a lee trough closer to the coast.

...Western New England and the Mid-Atlantic into the Central Appalachians...

While mid-level lapse rates are not expected to be overly steep, the
presence of a hot, moist boundary layer will largely contribute to
moderate to strong instability Friday afternoon ahead of the cold
front and in the vicinity of the lee trough. Thunderstorm
development is expected by early to mid afternoon across portions of
NY and PA within a zone of forcing for ascent preceding the
mid-level wave. Additional storm development is likely through the
afternoon along the front and/or favored terrain in the central and
southern Appalachians.

The strongest vertical shear is expected to lag the surface warm
sector to the west, leading to a mix of multicells and line segments
with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts. Isolated
occurrences of marginally severe hail may also accompany the
strongest storms.

Individual thunderstorms are expected to gradually congeal into
outflow-driven clusters by late afternoon into early evening,
leading to a potentially more concentrated damaging-wind threat
across the Mid-Atlantic.

...Central New Mexico into Far West Texas...

Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop within a moist and
moderately unstable upslope regime Friday afternoon. Vertical shear
is forecast to be somewhat marginal for storm organization; however,
the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates will be supportive of
some large-hail potential with the strongest updrafts.

...Northern High Plains into Minnesota and Wisconsin...

Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon
within a marginally unstable environment, with some potential for
gusty winds and/or small hail. Vertical shear is expected to be
relatively strong, and if subsequent model runs indicate greater
instability, severe-weather probabilities may need to be added.

..Mead.. 06/11/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 130517
SWODY2
SPC AC 130515

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are
expected across the Mid-Atlantic vicinity Sunday afternoon and
evening. Additional strong to severe storms are expected across the
Upper Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes area.

...Mid-Atlantic Region...

An upper trough will be oriented over the Upper Great Lakes Sunday
morning. A shortwave embedded within the large-scale troughing will
pivot east across the Midwest/Lower Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic.
Ahead of this main shortwave trough, most guidance suggests a lead
impulse will overspread the Chesapeake Bay vicinity during the
afternoon. Low to midlevel west/southwesterly flow will increase to
around 30-40 kt in association with these features. This enhanced
flow will aid in organized thunderstorms in multiple bands during
the afternoon and evening.

Rich boundary layer moisture is expected to be in place to the lee
of the Blue Ridge across the NC/VA Piedmont and Chesapeake Bay
vicinity into southeast PA/southern NJ. Northward extent of moisture
return remains a bit uncertain, but at least low 60s F dewpoints
should filter into much of PA and NY ahead of an eastward-advancing
cold front. Strong heating will support a corridor of moderate
destabilization, with MLCAPE in the 1500-2500 J/kg range across
eastern VA/NC and vicinity. Instability is expected to be more muted
with northward extent where boundary layer moisture will be somewhat
less and midlevel lapse rates rather poor.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop within
lee troughing near the Blue Ridge and spread east across the Chesapeake/DelMarVa/southeast PA/southern NJ vicinity during the
afternoon to early evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the main
concern with these storms, though isolated hail or a tornado also
will be possible. If current model trends continue, higher coverage probabilities/upgrade to Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) could be needed in
subsequent outlooks. For now, wind probabilities have been increased
to 30 percent across the DelMarVa into southeast PA/southern NJ.

Additional bands/clusters of storms are likely to develop during the
afternoon ahead of the advancing cold front from the Upper Ohio
Valley into PA/NY. While instability will be lower across this area,
deep-layer flow will be stronger. Linear bands and clusters will
pose a risk for isolated severe/damaging wind gusts through the evening.

...Southeast NM to the ArkLaTex...

A southward sagging surface front/composite outflow will extend west
to east across the region. A very moist and moderately unstable
airmass will be in place ahead of the front. Isolated convection
cold pose a risk for strong wind gusts. Across southeast
NM/southwest TX, a few storms could also produce hail. Weak
large-scale ascent and convection becoming undercut by the surface
boundary will limit overall severe potential.

..Leitman.. 06/13/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 170527
SWODY2
SPC AC 170525

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KENTUCKY INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible from
Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic, and across parts of the Northeast.
Damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard with this activity.

...Synopsis...

An upper shortwave trough over the Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio
Valley Thursday morning will pivot northeast across the Northeast
through evening. Strong deep layer southwesterly flow associated
with this feature will already be in place at the beginning of the
period, with 500 mb flow from 60-80 kt stretching across portions of
the Northeast. Meanwhile, an intense 850 mb low-level jet will lift
northeast across the central Appalachians, the Mid-Atlantic, and the
Northeast. A surface low over southern Ontario will pivot northeast
into Quebec, while a trailing cold front stretches from the Lower
Great Lakes west/southwest toward the Mid-MS Valley and the OK/TX
Panhandles Thursday morning. The northern extent of this boundary
will spread east across the Northeast while the western extent
across the Ohio Valley into the Plains slowly sags southward.

Across the Gulf Coast states, the remnants of current Potential
Tropical Cyclone One will migrate eastward across the region. This
feature could locally enhance deep layer shear amid a very moist and
modestly airmass.

...Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast Vicinity...

Convection will be ongoing Thursday morning in the vicinity of the
surface cold front. Ahead of the front, a seasonally moist airmass
will be in place. Instability will likely be muted from PA/NY into
New England due to cloud cover, poor lapse rates and a narrow/modest
warm sector. Nevertheless, intense deep-layer flow will overspread
the Northeast and fast moving storms could produce damaging wind gusts.

Stronger instability is expected in a corridor from KY into the
Mid-Atlantic where richer boundary layer moisture will be in place.
This corridor also may see stronger heating. The strong 850 mb
low-level jet will gradually weaken through the day as it lifts
northeast, but strong deep-layer flow will persist atop this
moist/unstable airmass. Scattered storms are expected during the
afternoon into evening, posing mainly a risk of damaging gusts.

...Gulf Coast/Southeast...

The remnants of current Potential Tropical Cyclone One will migrate east/northeast across the region on Thursday. A very moist airmass
will be in place, and where stronger heating can occur, moderate destabilization is expected. Furthermore, the remnant low will
locally enhance vertical shear. Isolated strong storms capable of
producing gusty winds and a tornado or two will be possible.

...Southern Plains to Mid-South...

Severe thunderstorm potential is a bit more uncertain from
OK/northwest TX into the Ozarks vicinity. A very moist and unstable
airmass will be in place ahead of the southward sagging cold front.
However, large-scale ascent will be weak and capping could limit
storm coverage. If storms can develop ahead of the front, some risk
for strong wind and hail will be possible.

..Leitman.. 06/17/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 220559
SWODY2
SPC AC 220558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA....

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are expected across the central High Plains
on Tuesday with isolated severe storms possible into the Upper
Mississippi Valley. Large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts
will be the primary threats.

...Synopsis...
An upper low initially over southern Canada will shift into the
northern Plains with a belt of 40-50+ kt mid-level flow forecast
across the northern and central Plains into the upper Midwest. In
the low levels, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop from
the northern Plains into upper MS Valley with a trailing boundary
extending southwest into the central High Plains. Elsewhere, a cold
front will move off the Mid-Atlantic Coast with the trailing
extension of the boundary moving into the Southeast.

...Central High Plains into the Central/Southern Plains...

As mid-level flow strengthens across the Rockies, a lee cyclone will
develop across eastern Colorado and result in strengthening upslope
flow. Moderate to strong instability is expected within this zone.
This instability, combined with nearly 50 knots of mid-level flow,
will result in a supercell environment. Large to very large hail
will be the primary threat from this activity. Eventual upscale
growth into a cluster is expected, and a potential bowing MCS across
western Kansas and potentially northern Oklahoma should result in an
increasing severe wind threat during the evening and into the early
overnight hours.

...Portions of the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest...

Some elevated storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period
from northern Nebraska into southeast South Dakota on the nose of a
modest low-level jet. These storms could pose some large hail
threat. Additional storms may develop along the front during the
afternoon. Strong mid-level flow will result in adequate shear for
storm organization, but instability may be the primary limiting
factor. Extensive cloud cover may limit heating, but at least some
pockets of greater destabilization are possible. Within these areas,
a threat for isolated large hail may exist.

...Southeast...

A few strong storms capable of gusty winds appear possible Tuesday
afternoon along and ahead of the synoptic front from the Gulf Coast
to the eastern Carolinas. Poor lapse rates will be the primary
limiting factor for damaging wind gusts. However, as the event gets
closer and details regarding instability and frontal position become
more clear, wind probabilities may be warranted.

..Bentley.. 06/22/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 230610
SWODY2
SPC AC 230609

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0109 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS....

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms are possible across the central High
Plains on Wednesday with a threat for large to very large hail and
severe wind gusts. More isolated severe storms are possible across
portions of the Upper Midwest, Ozarks to Mississippi, and across
northern Utah.

...Synopsis...
Moderate northwesterly mid-level flow will be present from the
northern Rockies to the Midwest between a ridge across the Southwest
and a trough moving across southern Canada into the Upper Midwest. A
weak mid-level shortwave trough will likely be in the Arkansas
region at the beginning of the period and weaken with a secondary
mid-level shortwave trough moving across the central Rockies and
deamplifying the ridge. At the surface, a weak surface low will move
from northern Minnesota into Wisconsin. A secondary lee cyclone will
develop across eastern Colorado in response to the approaching
mid-level shortwave trough and strengthening mid-level flow.

...Central/southern High Plains...

Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop within upslope
flow across eastern Colorado and southeast Wyoming on Wednesday
afternoon. As 40 to 50 knots of mid-level flow advects over the
region, a favorable supercell environment will be in place.
Supercells are likely to develop by mid afternoon with an initial
threat of large to very large hail and severe winds. The more
organized supercell threat is forecast from east-central Colorado
northward where the 15% hail probabilities are confined. 15% wind
probabilities continue farther south as forecast soundings suggest
severe winds (perhaps 75+ mph) are likely, even if storms are less organized.

...KS/OK into the Ozarks...

Day 1 convection will have a considerable impact on the coverage and
severity of severe storms on Wednesday. Some guidance shows morning
storms along a frontal zone in Oklahoma and persisting into the
afternoon which will stabilize most of the region into the afternoon
and evening. However, if these storms do not form, a very favorable
airmass will remain in place and a MCS could develop across the High
Plains and move into this region Tuesday night. This could bring
some severe weather threat and it would have implications for where destabilization would be on Day 2/Wednesday. Therefore, a broad 5%
driven by severe winds seems appropriate at this time and additional
refinement can be made once the impact of prior day convection
becomes more clear.

...Western Great Lakes...

Lingering clouds associated with early-day storms may limit air mass destabilization into afternoon. However, where cloud breaks can
occur, the combination of cooling temperatures aloft and modest
boundary-layer moisture content will support moderate afternoon
instability. Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
during the afternoon in the vicinity of the surface low and frontal
boundary, and within the belt of stronger mid-level flow, suggesting
some potential for large hail with the strongest updrafts.

...Eastern Arkansas into Mississippi...

There is considerable uncertainty regarding the coverage of storms
across Arkansas at 12Z Wednesday, but given forcing from a mid-level
trough and moderate to strong instability across the region, either re-intensification of morning convection or additional afternoon
convection is possible within this zone. Damaging winds will be the
primary threat.

...Northern Utah...

A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move across northern Utah
during the day on Monday with weak to moderate instability. Forecast
soundings show a deeply-mixed sub-cloud layer which may result in
severe winds. Some consideration was given to a CIG1 area given the
potential for organized storms in the steep lapse rate environment,
but did not have the confidence for 75+ mph wind gusts to add it at
this time.

..Bentley.. 06/23/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 240600
SWODY2
SPC AC 240558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND INTO THE OZARKS....

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across portions of
the High Plains with a threat for large hail and severe wind. Storms
are also expected across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma into
the Ozarks where large hail, severe winds, and a few tornadoes are
all possible.

...Synopsis...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough will move through the Great Lakes
during the day on Thursday. A weak surface low will move across
Ontario with a trailing cold front into the Ohio Valley. Farther
west, several mid-level shortwave troughs will be embedded within
the broader zonal flow across the Plains. The most prominant feature
will be a mid-level shortwave trough that is forecast to move from
eastern Colorado Thursday morning to the Ozarks by the evening. A
lee surface cyclone is forecast in the Texas Panhandle vicinity.

...High Plains...

Widespread convection/cloud cover is likely from northern Colorado
into eastern Wyoming on Thursday morning. This will limit
surface-based instability across the region for much of the day.
Eventual destabilization is expected by late afternoon/early evening
as the cloud cover clears. As a mid-level shortwave trough moves
through Wyoming, expect storms to develop during the evening with
some severe wind potential. The lack of strong heating has lessened
hail and significant wind potential across this region. Therefore,
the CIG1 area has been removed.

Farther south, stronger heating/destabilization is expected which,
combined with moderate mid-level flow, may support some supercell
threat with weak upslope flow across southeast Kansas, and
continuing east along the frontal boundary into the OK/TX Panhandles.

...Northern Oklahoma/southern Kansas into the Ozarks...

A morning MCS is expected to move along/north of a frontal zone
across Kansas during the morning on Thursday. In the wake of this
morning MCS, strong destabilization is forecast with moderate
mid-level flow aloft. Therefore, supercells are expected to develop
on the remnant outflow/frontal zone Thursday afternoon and evening
from southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma potentially into the
Ozarks. Given storm motion that should be parallel to the boundary,
the enhanced vorticity along this zone could result in a locally
greater tornado threat. In addition, most guidance shows a
strengthening low-level jet across Oklahoma and into southern
Kansas. This may support a strong tornado threat, particularly
during the evening.

...Eastern Ohio to southern New York...

Weak to moderate instability is expected to develop across eastern
Ohio and western Pennsylvania Thursday morning with dewpoints in the
mid 60s. Moderate to strong forcing on the leading edge of a compact
mid-level jet streak should result in storm development along the
front by mid-afternoon. Strong shear should assist in storm
organization, but weak lapse rates may limit overall updraft
strength. Due to the weak to moderate instability and strong shear,
5% wind probabilities are warranted.

..Bentley.. 06/24/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 280602
SWODY2
SPC AC 280600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the central/northern
Plains into the Upper Midwest on Monday. Large hail and severe winds
are the primary concerns, though a couple of tornadoes may also occur.

...Synopsis...
A compact shortwave trough will evolve out of the upper trough in
the northern Rockies. The timing of this feature remains a bit
uncertain. The strongest mid-level ascent will likely occur in
eastern Dakotas/western Minnesota after 00Z. A surface low will
deepen within the eastern Dakotas and lift north-northeast with
time. A very moist airmass will be in place between a cold front in
the central Plains and a warm front in the Upper Midwest. Upper
level ridging will continue in the Midwest/East with modest
breakdown of this ridge expected in the Dakotas/Minnesota.

...Eastern Dakotas into northern Minnesota...

The forecast remains rather uncertain across these regions. At least
weak convection appears probable within parts of the Dakotas into
western Minnesota during the morning. How this activity evolves will
play a role in where afternoon severe potential will exist. Model
agreement has marginally increased with regard to the evolution of
the shortwave trough in the northern Plains and the surface low
migrating north-northeast near the Red River. Even so, upper-level
ridging that will persist through much of the period limits
confidence in if and how many storms will develop during the
afternoon/early evening. Should sufficient destabilization occur
near the surface low, a portion of eastern North Dakota into
northwest Minnesota appear to have the greatest relative potential
for severe storms. All severe hazards would be possible given the
50+ kt of effective shear, 4000+ J/kg MLCAPE, and locally stronger
low-level shear. Model solutions for activity near the surface low
and areas southward into eastern South Dakota and western Minnesota
are highly disparate. The ECMWF would suggest some potential for an
MCS to develop near the surface low and track through parts of northern/east-central Minnesota along the buoyancy gradient. This
particular scenario has been fairly consistent along with the
depiction of a more southern surface low/upper trough. Solutions
such as the RRFS would suggest a supercell or two could occur
farther south along the South Dakota/Minnesota border.

...Nebraska into southern/central Minnesota...

Though the timing of development differs, there has been an
increasing convective signal trend in recent guidance along the cold
front. There is at least some potential for this to occur during
late afternoon with a window for storms to be surface based, but it
is more probable that it occurs after dark when the low-level jet
increases. Large hail could occur early in the convective cycle, but
deep-layer shear parallel to the boundary should mean a quick
transition into linear structures. Severe wind gusts will likely be
the primary concern, though a low-end tornado threat may exist given
the stronger low-level jet.

..Wendt.. 06/28/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 010602
SWODY2
SPC AC 010601

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms will be possible from the northern Plains
into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions on Thursday. Isolated
strong to severe storms may also occur in the Tennessee
Valley/Southeast as well as parts of the Northeast.

...Northern Plains into Mid-Missouri Valley...
Broad cyclonic flow aloft across the Rockies will promote a lee
trough and a modest surface low in the vicinity of the Black Hills.
A surface boundary will arc from eastern Montana into northern South
Dakota and southern Minnesota. Moisture advection into the High
Plains will couple with higher terrain of MT/WY/SD as well as the
surface boundary to initiate convection during the afternoon.
Supercells will be likely initially with an attendant risk of large
to very-large hail, severe winds, and a tornado or two. Mid-level
lapse rates of 8-9 C/km will promote rapid intensification and
strong downdrafts. Couple this with modest effective shear of 40-45
kt and upscale growth will be likely with time. An MCS is possible
and would likely track along the surface boundary. Wind gusts of 75+
mph would be possible with this activity.

While most guidance does not show development along the surface
boundary towards the mid-Missouri Valley, there will be weak warm
advection ongoing through the day that will increase by late
afternoon. Should storms develop here, they would likely be more isolated/cellular. A similar threat for large/very-large hail and
severe gusts would exist along with a locally greater tornado
threat. This would especially be the case if storms can remain
discrete into the evening when low-level shear increases. Depending
on whether this activity develops/evolves, this will have an impact
on the spatial extent of a greater threat for severe winds into the
evening and beyond. Given that uncertainty, the Slight Risk will be
maintained with potential increases in wind probabilities in
subsequent outlooks as confidence increases.

...Midwest...
Convection is expected to be ongoing in parts of the region. At
least an isolated threat for damaging winds and large hail would
exist with this activity. There remain some potential for
intensification to occur as storms move east during the day. The
Slight Risk remains in place into far western Lower Michigan to
account for this potential. Later in the afternoon, redevelopment is
possible along the outflow from earlier activity. The most robust
model signals are in Iowa and parts of Wisconsin. Large hail would
be possible especially in Iowa where mid-level lapse rates would be
steeper. Otherwise damaging winds would be the main threat. A
tornado or two could occur, but low-level shear will be rather weak.

...Northeast...
Strong buoyancy and modest shear will again be in place across the
region. At least isolated storms are possible during the afternoon.
Damaging winds should be the main threat with this activity.
Isolated large hail may occur with the strongest storms, but modest
mid-level lapse rates will limit this threat. Some guidance does
show more organized activity moving into the region from
Ontario/Quebec, but this may not occur until late afternoon.
Confidence in that scenario occurring is too low for an increase in
wind probabilities.

...Tennessee Valley/Southeast...
Strong heating of a very moist airmass will promote scattered to
numerous storms during the afternoon. Congealing outflows will help
to organize activity even with very weak shear. Given mid-level
lapse rates of 7-7.5 C/km, at least marginally severe storms will be
possible. Damaging winds are the expected hazard.

..Wendt.. 07/01/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 020602
SWODY2
SPC AC 020600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE BLACK
HILLS VICINITY INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe storms are possible from the
northern/central Plains into the Midwest, Tennessee Valley, and
Mid-Atlantic on Friday.

...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will begin to flatten and spread westward on
Friday. Modest southwesterly flow aloft will continue across much of
the Rockies. In the East, stronger cyclonic flow aloft will continue
in New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic. A surface low will
deepen in parts of the central High Plains. A
quasi-stationary/outflow composite boundary will be situated within
the central/northern Plains into the Lower Great Lakes region.

...Black Hills vicinity into Mid-Missouri/Mississippi Valleys...
Forecast uncertainty remains with respect to how convection evolves
Thursday night into early Friday morning. Some convection could
linger in parts of South Dakota and possibly Nebraska. At the very
least, portions of the central/northern Plains will be impacted by
outflow from earlier convection. The position of the outflow will
determine where the greater severe threat develops during the
afternoon. Modest southwesterly flow aloft will drive the
development of the lee trough that will advect upper 50s to low 60s
F dewpoints into the High Plains. A subtle shortwave trough depicted
in most guidance will initiate convection within the higher terrain
of eastern Montana/Wyoming and the Black Hills. Initial supercells
will be capable of large to very large hail and severe winds.
Additional convection is also possible farther southeast along the
outflow boundary where a weak surface low may enhance low-level lift
of a weakly capped airmass. A similar threat for large/very large
hail and severe winds would accompany this activity. Should the
activity farther east remain discrete into early evening, a
marginally greater tornado risk would exist. Between these two zones
of convection, upscale growth will allow one or more MCS to develop
and track along the boundary. The lead MCS would have greater
potential for severe winds (some 75+ mph). The low-level jet
response during the evening will not be overly strong, but it should
be enough to help convection to continue into parts of Iowa later in
the evening.

...Northern Illinois into northwest Ohio...
With an MCV and related convection likely moving through the Great
Lakes region to the north, an outflow/theta-e boundary will settle
somewhere within these areas. Model guidance suggests that heating
along this boundary will promote scattered storm development. Modest enhancement to deep-layer shear due to the MCV may allow for modest organization of a cluster/linear segment that travels east along the
boundary. Wind probabilities have been increased to account for this potential.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Model spread still exists as to where the greatest storm coverage
will exist during the afternoon. Temperatures nearing 100 F and 60s
F dewpoints will support strong destabilization across the region.
The degree of temperature-dewpoint spreads will promote efficient
downdraft production. Effective shear will be greatest in the
northern Mid-Atlantic where around 30 kt of flow at 500 mb will
exist. This should promote clusters/linear segments capable of wind
damage. Towards the Blue Ridge, storm coverage is much less certain
given the very weak forcing. Damaging downbursts are still possible
with storms that can develop. Model trends will continue to be
monitored for any increase in expected storm coverage.

...Tennessee Valley into Ohio Valley...
Strong heating of a mid/upper 60s F dewpoint airmass will promote
4000+ J/kg MLCAPE by the afternoon. Weak shear will limit storm
organization, but subtle shortwave troughs moving around the upper
anticyclone could allow for locally greater storm
coverage/clustering. Damaging downburst winds are the expected hazard.

...Northern Plains into Upper Midwest...
Forecast uncertainty remains medium to high in terms of how much destabilization will occur within these areas. Guidance generally
suggests convection/cloud cover will exist during the morning and
potentially parts of the afternoon. A broad marginal remains in
place for damaging winds and isolated large hail potential should
enough destabilization occur.

..Wendt.. 07/02/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 030535
SWODY2
SPC AC 030533

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO MID
ATLANTIC AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Clusters of storms may evolve across parts of the Allegheny Plateau
into Mid Atlantic and across the central Great Plains Saturday
afternoon and evening, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts. Large
hail is also possible across the Great Plains

...Discussion...
Models indicate that a remnant mid-level high, now centered near or
just east the southern Appalachians, will become suppressed by the
beginning of this period. A new high may become a bit more
prominent upstream, near and to the lee of the southern Rockies,
with ridging also building to its northwest, from portions of the
eastern Great Basin through portions of the mid Missouri Valley. To
the east of this ridging, weak initially zonal flow may transition
to a broadly cyclonic regime across the Upper Midwest and lower
Missouri into Ohio Valleys. Stronger westerlies are likely to
remain confined to higher latitudes, but one embedded larger-scale
trough is forecast to dig across the Canadian Maritimes and New
England Saturday through Saturday night.

In lower levels, more substantive cooling/drying may overspread much
of northern New England during the day, and perhaps the Adirondacks
vicinity and portions of the upper Great Lakes by late Saturday
night. However, this may be preceded by a diffuse/weak front,
perhaps augmented by convective outflow is some locations, advancing
southward across the Mid Atlantic, Ohio and lower Missouri Valleys
and central Great Plains through the period.

Along and south of the lead front/convective outflow, a
boundary-layer characterized by seasonably high moisture content may
again become characterized by large potential instability with
daytime heating. This will probably become supportive of widely
scattered to scattered strong thunderstorm development posing at
least some severe weather risk. The magnitude/areal coverage of
this potential remains uncertain, and will largely be influenced by sub-synoptic developments that are of low predictability at this
extended time frame, as evidenced by sizable model spread still
apparent in latest model output, including convection-allowing guidance.

...Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic...
Potential convective evolution remains uncertain, with forcing for
ascent to support thunderstorm development unclear. However, there
appears some general consensus in model output that at least
scattered thunderstorm development will initiate in response to
daytime boundary-layer destabilization across the Allegheny Plateau,
as mid-level heights subtly begin to fall. This is forecast to
develop eastward across the Mid Atlantic by early evening.

Given the degree of instability forecast, and possibly a belt of
convectively augmented flow (including 30-40 kt in the 850-500 mb
layer) spreading east-southeast of the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio
Valley vicinity, there appears potential for one or two organizing
clusters capable of producing damaging wind gusts to evolve.

...Central Great Plains...
Given the possible general tendency for larger-scale mid-level
height rises across the Rockies and adjacent Great Plains, and
spread evident in model output, convective potential for this period
remains uncertain. However, lingering convectively generated or
augmented perturbations within evolving northwesterly mid-level flow
could support widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm
development, including a few supercells by early Saturday evening.
This may be focused in moistening southeasterly low-level flow
across parts of northeastern Colorado and western Nebraska, and near
a zone of strengthening differential heating on the southwestern
flank of a stalled outflow boundary across western into central Kansas.

Warm advection and convergence near the nose of a nocturnally
strengthening southerly low-level jet, with boundary-layer
decoupling across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle vicinity into
southwestern Kansas, seems to offer the best support for a possible
upscale growing cluster, which could maintain a risk for large hail
and strong to severe surface gusts into Saturday night.

..Kerr.. 07/03/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 040512
SWODY2
SPC AC 040510

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Developing thunderstorm clusters may pose a risk for damaging wind
gusts across parts of the Mid Atlantic and parts of the southern
Great Plains Sunday afternoon and evening.

...Discussion...
While ridging in the subtropical latitudes remains relatively
suppressed, models indicate that the stronger mid-latitude
westerlies will remain confined to the northern mid-latitudes
through this period. Within this regime, a mid-level short wave
trough is forecast to accelerate east of the Canadian Maritimes and
New England early Sunday, before merging into a significant trough
and embedded mid-level low digging across/southeast of the Labrador Sea.

Upstream, mid-level troughing, including at least a couple of
embedded smaller-scale perturbations, is forecast to continue
progressing across and east-northeast of the Canadian Prairies. It
appears that forcing with the lead impulse may support modest
surface cyclogenesis across northern Saskatchewan through Manitoba.
However, even with the trailing perturbation, it appears that
forcing for ascent will generally remain focused to the north of the international border.

To the south of the international border, models suggest that
mid-level ridging, across the eastern Great Basin into north central
Great Plains at the outset of the period, will expand across the
middle Missouri Valley toward upper Mississippi Valley Sunday
through Sunday night. Downstream, it appears that weak troughing,
likely with a number of embedded convectively generated
perturbations, will continue to overspread the middle Mississippi
and Ohio Valleys through northern Mid Atlantic.

To the east and south of this troughing, seasonably high
boundary-layer moisture content may again become supportive of
moderate to strong potential instability. However, given the
generally weak nature of the large-scale flow and synoptic forcing,
severe thunderstorm potential will largely be influenced by
sub-synoptic developments with rather low predictability at this
extended time frame. This continues to be reflected in sizable
spread evident in convection allowing and related guidance.

...Mid Atlantic...
There remains little general change from prior model output. It
still appears that a low-level baroclinic zone could remain fairly
well defined to the north and northeast of a surface low forecast to
develop to the lee of the Blue Ridge by late Sunday afternoon. Both
of these features could become a focus for vigorous thunderstorm
development, though there appears a better signal in latest guidance
for activity to form off the higher terrain into the lee surface
trough, at least initially, before perhaps propagating along or just
south of the remnant front toward coastal areas. Aided by a
lingering modest, but weakening, belt of convectively augmented
westerly flow, it is possible that one or two clusters could
organize and become accompanied by better potential to produce
damaging wind gusts late Sunday afternoon and evening.

...Southern Rockies into adjacent Great Plains...
Uncertainty appears even greater than suggested in prior model runs, particularly with regard to whether there will become a well-defined
boundary, supported by differential surface heating by late
afternoon, to focus strong thunderstorm development. The higher
terrain of the southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains into the Raton
Mesa/ridge vicinity appears to offer the most probable focus for
thunderstorm development by late Sunday afternoon. There is some
signal that activity could consolidate into a cluster while
propagating southeast of the higher terrain into a residual deeply
mixed boundary layer over the high plains Sunday evening,
accompanied by potential to produce strong wind gusts.

...Northwestern North Dakota...
There remains a mixed signal within model output concerning
potential destabilization and thunderstorm development along surface
troughing extending south of the international border late Sunday
afternoon and evening. With stronger mid/upper support likely to
remain to the north of the border, the potential seems low, but low
severe probabilities will be maintained, at least for now.

..Kerr.. 07/04/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 060512
SWODY2
SPC AC 060510

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms, which may evolve into an organized cluster
with increasing potential to produce severe wind gusts by late
Tuesday evening, are possible across parts of central and eastern
South Dakota into southwestern Minnesota. Other thunderstorm
clusters may form to the east of the Blue Ridge Mountains and
southwest of the Ark-La-Tex vicinity and pose a risk for damaging
wind gusts late Tuesday afternoon or evening.

...Discussion...
It still appears that the westerlies may become a bit less
progressive across the higher latitudes of North America by Tuesday.
As a mid/upper high evolves in the northwestern Canadian Arctic
latitudes, a deep remnant lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone may only
slowly migrate east-northeastward across Hudson Bay, toward the
northern Quebec shores, while a notable upstream trough slowly
pivots inland of the British Columbia coast.

In advance of the trailing perturbation, low-amplitude troughing,
comprised of at least a couple smaller-scale perturbations within
the modest zonal westerlies across the northern tier of the U.S.,
is forecast to progress east of the northern Rockies. As it does,
models suggest that it will gradually flatten initial mid-level
ridging across the middle Missouri Valley Tuesday through Tuesday night.

Otherwise, mid-level ridging is forecast to remain prominent along
an axis from the subtropical eastern Pacific through the central and
southern Great Plains, while also developing northwestward from the
subtropical western Atlantic into parts of the southeast. It
appears that weak mid-level troughing will dig across the southern
New England and northern Mid Atlantic coast, leaving a remnant shear
axis between the ridging, roughly from the Ohio Valley into
southeastern Great Plains, with perhaps a well-defined,
quasi-stationary circulation along it across the Mid South vicinity.

...Parts of the middle Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest...
Beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, associated with a plume of
elevated mixed-layer air slowly becoming suppressed southward across
the middle Missouri Valley, it still appears that stronger
boundary-layer heating may contribute to moderate to strong
destabilization by late Tuesday afternoon. Guidance suggests that
this will focus in a corridor along/south of a stalling surface cold
front trailing the Hudson Bay cyclone, along which surface dew
points increasing to near 70F may contribute to CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg.

Although timing of stronger thunderstorm initiation remains
uncertain, this probably will be aided by forcing for ascent
associated with the approaching mid-level perturbations. Once this
occurs, deep-layer shear appears likely to become at least
marginally supportive of supercell structures. Particularly by late
Tuesday evening, near the nose of a nocturnally strengthening
boundary-layer jet across central into eastern South Dakota, the
evolution of an upscale growing and organizing cluster appears
possible, accompanied by increasing potential to produce strong to
severe wind gusts as it propagates eastward.

...Mid Atlantic...
Both HREF and REFS calibrated thunderstorm guidance are similar with
highest probabilities for thunderstorms becoming concentrated along
and east of the Blue Ridge by late afternoon. Although embedded
within deep-layer westerly mean flow on the order of 20 kt or less, thermodynamic profiles with high precipitable water content and
modest CAPE may support locally strong downbursts in stronger storms.

There does appear at least some potential for weak low-level warm
advection to provide support for an upscale growing cluster
propagating southeastward toward coastal areas by Tuesday evening,
with continuing risk for potentially damaging winds along a
consolidating gust front.

...Northeast Texas into northern Louisiana...
Both HREF and REFS calibrated thunderstorm guidance currently focus
higher thunderstorm probabilities by late Tuesday afternoon across
the region, near the southwestern periphery of the broad, weak
mid-level cyclonic circulation. Aided by inflow of moderate
potential instability, within a corridor of stronger daytime
heating, some clustering of storms appears possible, accompanied by
potential for a few strong downbursts.

..Kerr.. 07/06/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 070532
SWODY2
SPC AC 070530

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Clusters of strong thunderstorms with potential to produce severe
hail and wind may evolve across parts of the Upper Midwest into
central Great Plains Wednesday through Wednesday night.

...Discussion...
While a blocking, but perhaps weakening, mid-level high lingers in
the north central Canadian Arctic latitudes, it appears that one
still fairly vigorous short wave trough and embedded low will begin
to dig southeast of the Hudson Bay vicinity Wednesday through
Wednesday night, while an upstream short wave trough pivots across
the Canadian Rockies, then northward toward the Northwest
Territories. In association with these developments, within a belt
of modest westerlies closer to and south of the international
border, subtle mid-level ridging may overspread the northern
Rockies, with similar amplitude downstream troughing digging across
the northern Great Plains, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region.

Beneath this regime, a weak cold front, perhaps reinforced by
convective outflow in some locations, is forecast to overspread much
of the remainder of the Upper Midwest/adjacent Great Lakes and
middle Missouri Valley vicinity by late Wednesday night. This may
be preceded across parts of the central Great Plains by conglomerate
convective outflow emanating from considerable thunderstorm
development spreading off the Laramie Range/Front Range vicinity,
within weak west-northwesterly steering flow.

In the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes, modest mid-level
ridging is forecast to generally prevail, but weak remnant troughing
may slowly migrate from the Mid South toward the southern
Appalachians, along its northern periphery.

...Upper Midwest...
Steeper mid-level lapse rates associated with a remnant plume of
elevated mixed-layer air may become increasingly confined to the
higher plains during this period. However, seasonably high moisture
content along/ahead of the southward advancing cold front may still
become supportive of mixed-layer CAPE of 1500-2000+ J/kg with
daytime heating.

Based on latest guidance, it is appearing less probable that a
cluster of strong continuing thunderstorm development, with a
possible MCV, will be substantively maintained into this period
across parts of the Upper Midwest into adjacent Great Lakes region.
But, this remains uncertain.

There appears a stronger signal for renewed thunderstorm development
within the corridor of pre-frontal destabilization trailing to the
southwest, across central into southern Wisconsin, southeastern
Minnesota and northeastern Iowa by late Wednesday afternoon, aided
by forcing for ascent with the digging mid-level troughing.

It is possible that a belt of convectively augmented westerly
mid-level flow, including 30+ kt around 700 mb, contributes to
sufficient shear for evolving supercell structures. These may pose
a risk for severe hail, and perhaps some potential for a tornado or
two, before damaging wind gusts become more prominent prior to storm
weakening Wednesday evening.

...Central Great Plains...
By late Wednesday afternoon or early evening, it appears that
boundary-layer destabilization associated with moistening easterly
low-level flow may support intensification of initially scattered
thunderstorm development off the Laramie Mountains through Colorado
Front Range. Pronounced veering of wind fields with height may
yield sufficient shear for supercells posing a risk for severe hail
and wind.

There remains a fairly notable signal that forcing associated with a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet, and perhaps a subtle
digging mid-level perturbation, may contribute to an upscale growing
and organizing cluster with potential to produce more widespread
strong to severe wind gusts Wednesday evening into Wednesday night.

...Parts of the southern Mid Atlantic...
Thermodynamic profiles may again become conducive to locally strong
downbursts in convection likely to develop off the Blue Ridge
Mountains, and within surface troughing to the north and northeast
of a weak developing lee surface low. Aided by forcing for ascent
associated with weak low-level warm advection and convergence, an
upscale growing cluster, with potential to produce potentially
damaging wind gusts along the leading edge of consolidating outflow,
could overspread the North Carolina Piedmont by Wednesday evening.

..Kerr.. 07/07/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 080528
SWODY2
SPC AC 080527

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 AM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND ACROSS
PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong thunderstorm development, potentially including a
few evolving clusters, may impact portions of the central Great
Plains and lower Missouri Valley through lower Ohio Valley Thursday
through Thursday night, posing a risk for severe wind gusts and some hail.

...Discussion...
Modest mid-latitude westerlies likely will remain centered near the Canadian/U.S border through this period. In the wake of one short
wave trough slowly continuing to pivot northward into the Northwest Territories, and ahead of another digging near the British Columbia
coast, broad mid-level ridging is forecast to build across the
central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity Thursday through Thursday
night. Downstream, to the south of a perturbation digging southeast
of Hudson/James Bays, broad mid-level troughing is forecast to
overspread the lower Great Lakes through northern Atlantic Seaboard.

In lower latitudes, a number of more subtle perturbations are
forecast to progress through generally weak zonal flow, around the
northern periphery of mid-level ridging centered in the subtropics.
However, there remains a notable signal within model output that at
least a couple of these may be amplified by developing convection,
accompanied by belts of strengthening flow which could promote
organizing convection capable of producing swaths of strong to
severe wind gusts.

While the most substantive thunderstorm development through this
period appears likely to focus east of the Front Range into portions
of the lower Missouri Valley through Ohio Valley, as well as across
parts of the northern Mid Atlantic, more widely scattered strong to
severe thunderstorm development appears possible closer to the
mid-latitude westerlies. This may focus along a weak surface front
advancing slowly southward across parts of the lower Great Lakes
through northern New England, and within lee surface troughing
across parts of the northern Great Plains.

...Lower Missouri/Ohio Valleys...
Most guidance continues to indicate the generation of one or two
notable mesoscale convective vortices and associated jet streaks, at
least initially emanating from convection developing across the
central Great Plains Wednesday night. The NAM continues to forecast
the strongest convective perturbation, though the 08/00Z run now
suggests that this will occur with convection overspreading east
central Missouri into southern Illinois late Thursday night.
Otherwise, a consensus of guidance generally suggests the
development of strengthening westerly mid-level flow (on the order
of 30-50 kt around 700 mb) in a belt across the lower Missouri
Valley during the day, before slowly shifting toward the lower Ohio
Valley through Thursday night.

Based on latest model output, strongest renewed thunderstorm
development seems most probable within forcing for ascent associated
with strengthening low-level warm advection, along an outflow
boundary trailing the initial MCV. Aided by inflow of seasonably
high boundary-layer moisture content (including surface dew points
in the 70s) supportive of CAPE on the order of 2000+ J/kg, vertical
shear may become supportive of a sustained organized convective
system with potential to produce strong to severe wind gusts by
Thursday evening into Thursday night, if not earlier.

...Front Range into central Great Plains...
Latest model output continues to indicate that moistening
southeasterly low-level flow across the high plains will destabilize sufficiently by late afternoon to support intensifying thunderstorm
development off the Front Range. Aided by shear due to pronounced
veering of winds with height from the surface to mid-levels, this
may include widely scattered supercells initially.

Aided by forcing for ascent downstream of an approaching mid-level perturbation, convection-allowing guidance suggests that storms will subsequently increase in number across the high plains, with
consolidating cold pools supporting further upscale growth and
eastward propagation. Forcing for ascent near the nose of a
strengthening nocturnal southerly low-level jet may contribute to
maintenance of a cluster with potential to produce strong to severe
gusts into late evening/overnight across the southwestern Kansas vicinity.

...Mid Atlantic...
Destabilization within lee surface troughing may become sufficient
to support thunderstorm development with potential to produce strong
wind gusts and grow upscale Thursday afternoon into evening, aided
by forcing for ascent and modest strengthening of mid-level flow,
associated with a remnant short wave impulse emerging from the
Tennessee Valley.

...Southeastern Arizona...
Convection-allowing and related guidance suggests that thunderstorm
development is probable Thursday afternoon across parts of the
Mogollon Rim into higher terrain of southwestern New Mexico, and
perhaps southeastern Arizona, around the eastern periphery of a
weakening mid-level ridge. Aided by light northeasterly steering
flow off the mountains, into a hot and deeply mixed boundary layer
with at least weak CAPE, a few strong downbursts appear possible,
with potential for upscale growth on consolidating cold pools to
generate a broader strong to severe wind gust threat into Thursday evening.

..Kerr.. 07/08/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 100600
SWODY2
SPC AC 100558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARK
PLATEAU INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of damaging winds will be possible from the
Ozark Plateau east into the Tennessee Valley. Surrounding this area,
strong to severe storms capable of sporadic occurrences of damaging
wind will be possible from the southern High Plains east toward to
the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas Saturday afternoon and evening.
Isolated severe storms are also possible in southern Arizona.

... Synopsis ...

A strong midlevel ridge is expected to continue to build northward
across the West on Saturday. Downstream of this ridge, a
convectively augmented vorticity maximum is expected to be moving east-southeast across the Mid-Mississippi Valley and into the
Tennessee Valley. Farther east, a mid-level short-wave trough will
be moving across New England and out over the Atlantic Ocean.

At the surface, a weakening cold front will stretch from far
southern New England west into the central US at the start of the
period. This front will slowly move south during the day, across the
Mid Atlantic and into the Tennessee Valley and Southern Plains. As
the aforementioned convectively augmented vorticity maximum across
the central US interacts with the residual surface front, weak
cyclogenesis may occur across the Mid-Mississippi Valley.


... Ozark Plateau into the Tennessee Valley ...

By afternoon, temperatures are expected to warm into the mid-90Fs
with dewpoints ranging from the mid 60Fs into the low 70Fs. This
should yield an unstable environment, with MUCAPE values between
1500-3000 J/kg. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the
surface boundary during the afternoon. Deep layer shear is generally
expected to be on the order of 20-25 knots across the area, which
should support multicell clusters growing upscale into southward
moving bowing segments capable of producing damaging winds. Given
precipitable water values around 2 inches and mean sub-cloud layer
relative humidity around 40-50 percent, there is some potential for
a couple of significant wind gusts associated with strong cold pool
generation.


... Central and Southern Plains ...

Similar to areas farther east, temperatures will warm into the
mid-to-upper 90Fs with dewpoints in the mid-60Fs to low-70Fs
yielding MUCAPE values in the 1500-3000 J/kg range. Thunderstorms
should develop during the late afternoon along the surface boundary.
High precipitable water values (generally around 1.75 to 2 inches),
DCAPE values between 1000-1500 J/kg, and sub-cloud layer mean
relative humidity between 30-40 percent will support the potential
for strong, damaging outflow winds -- some potentially significant.
A few occurrences of large hail will also be possible given the
degree of instability and modest mid-level lapse rates.

Confidence in the location of where the surface boundary will
initiate is lower than areas farther east, which yields lower
confidence in adding higher wind probabilities. A Level 2/Slight
Risk may be needed in later outlooks if confidence in the number and
location of storms increases.


... Mid-Atlantic into northern Florida ...

Convergence along the southward moving front and the preceding lee
trough should allow for scattered thunderstorm development during
the afternoon. Although vertical shear is expected to remain
generally less than 25 knots, a moderately unstable environment
coupled with high precipitable water values (around 2 inches) should
support strong to potentially damaging downbursts.


... Southern Arizona ...

East/northeast mid-level flow is forecast to strengthen slightly on
Saturday to the south of the upper high, resulting in a belt of
deep-layer shear on the order of 30 knots. A moist and unstable
airmass across southern Arizona will support scattered thunderstorm development. As these storms move west, the strengthening flow/shear
will support a few strong to briefly severe storms capable of
locally damaging wind gusts.

..Marsh.. 07/10/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 110602
SWODY2
SPC AC 110600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST
GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong-to-severe thunderstorms capable of producing wind
damage will be possible across much of the Southeast on Sunday, with
the greatest potential across South Carolina. Additional
strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of
Arizona late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.

... Synopsis ...

The center of an expansive mid-level ridge will build northeast from
the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains on Sunday,
encompassing much of the contiguous US. A weak, positively-tilted
mid-level trough will slowly move southeast from the Ohio Valley
into the Tennessee Valley.

At the surface, a weak low will meander southeast underneath the
aforementioned mid-level trough. At the start of the forecast
period, a convectively augmented boundary will arc from this low
southwest into Arkansas before turning northwestward and extending
into south-central/south-west Kansas. This boundary will push south
through the period and serve as a focus for additional thunderstorm
development Sunday afternoon.


... Much of South Carolina into East Georgia ...

Ahead of the meandering surface low, a very warm and moist airmass
will once again be in place as surface temperatures warm into the
80Fs and 90Fs in the presence of surface dewpoint temperatures in
the 60Fs and low 70Fs. The result will be around 1000-2000 J/kg of
MUCAPE within a mostly uncapped environment. Scattered thunderstorms
should develop during the afternoon as convective temperatures are
breached. Weak mid-level flow (on the order of 15-20 knots) will
favor single cells and multicell clusters. Relatively steep
low-level lapse rates beneath the LCL and high precipitable water
values will support downbursts/outflow winds capable of damage.
Given the cooler mid-level temperatures associated with the
mid-level trough, a few marginally severe hail reports may also occur.


... Southern High Plains into the Southeast ...

To the south of the previously mentioned surface boundary, a
warm/hot moist airmass will be in place as temperatures warm into
the 90Fs to near 100F with dewpoints in the 60Fs and 70Fs. This will
result in MUCAPE on the order of 2000 to perhaps 3000 J/kg. Strong
diurnal heating coupled with weak convergence along the surface
boundary should result in scattered thunderstorm development during
the afternoon. These storms will be capable of producing
strong-to-marginally severe convective outflow winds.


... Arizona ...

Steep mid-level lapse rates and ample mid-level moisture will
support scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon.
This region will be to the south of the strong CONUS-wide ridge with
a belt of enhanced easterlies overhead. This should allow
thunderstorms that develop across the higher terrain of Arizona to
move west into the lower desert. A deeply mixed boundary layer will
allow for strong outflow winds to develop as convection spreads west
into southern and central Arizona.


... Upper Great Lakes ...

This region will be glanced by large-scale ascent associated with a strengthening mid-level jet across central Canada. Surface
temperatures warming into the upper 80Fs and low 90Fs with dewpoints temperatures in the mid 60Fs to perhaps 70Fs will result in strong
instability during the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will be modest
at best, but a few thunderstorms are expected to develop, perhaps
along a 700-millibar front/boundary, during the afternoon. Steep
low-level and mid-level lapse rates and effective-layer shear on the
order of 30-35 knots will support a few strong-to-severe wind gusts
and perhaps marginally severe hail. Forecast hodographs have modest
curvature in the low-levels that a tornado or two may be possible
with any supercell that can sustain itself and move more southerly,
realizing the totality of the low-level curvature.

..Marsh.. 07/11/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)