ACUS01 KWNS 301234
SWODY1
SPC AC 301232

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Valid 301300Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms with large hail, are expected across
parts of the middle and upper Mississippi River Valley tonight
through early Tuesday morning. Isolated strong to marginally severe
storms could occur further east into parts of Lower Michigan early
Tuesday morning as well as over the Texas South Plains this
afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a relatively zonal pattern in
places across the majority of the CONUS. The only exception is
across the Gulf Coast, which is along the northern periphery of
modest subtropical ridging. Recent surface analysis shows a broad
area of low pressure across the central High Plains/central Plains
with several embedded lows, including one over southwest SD, another
over south-central NE, and another near the OK/KS/CO border
intersection. Modest troughing extends between these features, while
a stationary front extends from the southwest SD low
east-northeastward across southern MN and central WI. At 11Z, mid
50s dewpoints extended from south-central OK into the Mid-South,
with 60s dewpoints farther so from central TX into the Lower MS Valley.

Overall upper pattern is expected to remain predominantly zonal
throughout the period as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves
along the US/Canada border, accompanied by a strengthening jet
streak. Substantial low-level moisture advection is expected
throughout the day from the southern Plains/Lower MS Valley into the
Mid MS and OH Valleys and Lower MI. By early tomorrow morning, mid
50s dewpoints will likely extend from southern WI across Lower MI
and into the upper OH Valley, demarcating a developing warm front.

Primary area of thunderstorm development anticipated today is in the
vicinity of the developing warm front from the mid/upper MS Valley
across the Lower Great Lakes into the Upper OH Valley and Northeast.
Isolated thunderstorms are also possible with the moist and
confluent environments of the FL Peninsula and the Lower MS Valley
as well as along the dryline in the southern High Plains and
seasonably moist airmass over the Southwest.

....Mid/Upper MS Valley into Lower MI and the Upper OH Valley...

Significant low-level moisture advection is expected throughout the
day into Mid MS Valley, although this advection will be offset
somewhat by strong heating and deep boundary-layer mixing. General
expectation is that upper 50s dewpoints will reach the IA/MO/central
IL vicinity by 00Z, with mid 50s farther north into southern WI and
southern Lower MI. Given negligible large-scale forcing and strong
mixing, capping is expected prevail throughout the day and into the
early evening. However, beginning around 22-00Z, increasing
mid-level moisture coupled with continued low-level moisture
advection and convergence near a weak surface low could result in
convective initiation across central IA. The earliest development
could be surface based with a trend towards more elevated storms
with time and northeastward extent as warm-air advection increase
during the evening. Steep lapse rates and moderate shear support the
potential for supercells with any more sustained updrafts. Large to
isolated very large hail is the primary severe risk. Even with the
elevated storm character, the prevailing warm/dry conditions above
the shallow return moisture could support strong downdrafts with
strong surface gusts.

Farther east, a few instances of small hail are possible from
western PA into western NY with the thunderstorms expected during
the evening and overnight.

...Southern High Plains...

Isolated thunderstorm development is possible along a dryline
forecast to extend from a weak low in western KS southwestward into
the TX Trans Pecos. Buoyancy will be weak and vertical shear modest
so storm structures are not expected to be particularly robust or
long lived. However, high cloud bases and steep low-level lapse
rates could still support a few stronger gusts at the surface.

..Mosier/Marsh.. 03/30/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 301614
SWODY1
SPC AC 301613

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1113 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Valid 301630Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms with large hail, are expected across
parts of the middle and upper Mississippi River Valley tonight
through early Tuesday morning. Isolated strong to marginally severe
storms could occur further east into parts of Lower Michigan early
Tuesday morning, and over the Texas South Plains this afternoon and evening.

...IA to Lower MI...

Fast zonal flow is present across the northern tier of states today,
with minor perturbations embedded within the flow field affecting
the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes region. A combination of
daytime heating, low-level warm/moist advection, and increasing
low-level convergence along a surface baroclinic zone will result in
scattered thunderstorms after dark over IA. These storms will form
in an environment of steep mid-level lapse rates and strong
deep-layer shear. MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg will promote
strong updrafts with a few supercells possible. Large hail appears
to be the main threat with these storms as they progress eastward
into northern IL/southern WI and slowly weaken with diurnal cooling.

Storms will persist through the night and spread across much of
lower MI. Despite weak instability, a few CAM solutions maintain
vigorous updrafts, supporting a low risk of hail and gusty winds overnight.

...TX Panhandle...

Full sunshine and dewpoints in the 50s will yield a moderately
unstable air mass along the dryline over the TX Panhandle this
evening. Most CAM guidance show isolated thunderstorm development
in this region - mainly in the 23-03z period. Forecast soundings
suggest the low/mid troposphere is dry and will limit the number of
updrafts that can survive. However, any storm that can persist will
pose a risk of gusty winds or hail.

..Hart/Wendt.. 03/30/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 041242
SWODY1
SPC AC 041240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of damaging winds and a tornado risk are
expected across parts of the Lower Great Lakes and middle/upper Ohio
River Valley, mainly this afternoon through early evening. Other
more isolated severe storms may occur across the Tennessee Valley,
Lower Mississippi Valley, and eastern part of Texas.

...Ohio/Eastern Indiana/Lower Michigan to Pennsylvania/New York...

A shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest early today will continue northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes through tonight.
Cyclonically influenced strengthening deep-layer southwesterlies
(50+ kt 700 mb) will overspread Indiana/Michigan toward the Lower
Great Lakes, atop a steadily moistening/heating warm-sector boundary
layer along and north of the Ohio River.

This will be ahead of a surface low and cold front, that is
considerably augmented by generally weakening thunderstorms and
prevalent lingering clouds/outflows through the pre-dawn hours.
These residual factors cast uncertainty regarding the magnitude of
today's overall potential, but a formidable flow field and
guidance-advertised heating/steady diurnal destabilization will
still be supportive of at least some severe potential regionally as
storms redevelop and intensify this afternoon. This includes
damaging wind potential, particularly given the magnitude of low/mid-tropospheric winds and boundary layer mixing, with some
tornado threat as well, mainly in vicinity of the triple
point/nearby warm front. Overall storm intensities should decrease
by mid/late evening, owing to nocturnal boundary-layer influences
and the primary upper-level system spreading away from the region.

...Tennessee Valley/Lower Mississippi Valley/Texas ...

While diminishing in intensity overnight, showers/thunderstorms
remain extensive and prevalent from the Mid-South/Ozarks
southwestward into North Texas, as a synoptic cold front otherwise
continues to progress southeastward across these regions. While
details are complexified by considerable cloud cover and lingering
storms, multiple corridors of reinvigorating storms should
materialize this afternoon where more appreciable cloud
breaks/heating occur. Downbursts/locally damaging winds will be the
primary severe hazard, but this is currently expected to be on a
relatively isolated/episodic basis.

..Guyer/Weinman.. 04/04/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 111244
SWODY1
SPC AC 111242

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Valid 111300Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms producing hail and strong wind gusts are
possible across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon
and evening. More isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are
expected across parts of the central Rockies, central Plains, upper
Mississippi Valley, and portions of the California coast.

...Southern High Plains...

Thunderstorm development is likely by mid/late-afternoon across
southwest Texas and eastern New Mexico as increase forcing for
ascent overspreads modest but increasing low-level moisture.
Initially discrete cells are likely and will pose a threat for large
hail given adequate deep-layer wind shear /generally 30-40 kt/.
However, weak capping and strong ascent should promote upscale
growth by early evening into several linear clusters. As this
transition occurs, strong to severe wind gust potential will
increase and become the predominant hazard, though an embedded
circulation or two may occur with a tornado possible.

...Central Plains to the Upper Mississippi Valley...

Low-level warm air advection will likely become increasingly focused
through the day and into the overnight hours from the central Plains
into the upper Mississippi Valley. 850 mb winds are forecast to
steadily strengthen to 40-60 kt by this evening and will support
moistening in the lowest 1-2 km under a plume of 7-7.5 C/km
mid-level lapse rates. Forecast soundings suggest that this
environment will be weakly capped and should support isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon hours across the
central Plains before spreading/re-developing northeastward into the
upper Mississippi Valley late tonight. While deep-layer wind shear
will not be overly strong (around 30 kt), it should be sufficient
for a few organized cells capable of severe hail.

A more conditional supercell potential may materialize by mid/late
afternoon through early evening across portions of the middle/lower
Missouri Valley near/just south of the northward-shifting surface
warm front, which may augmented by residual cloud cover/weakening
storms across northeast Kansas/far southeast Nebraska in the
pre-dawn hours. Forecast soundings from this region suggest a weakly
capped, but moderately buoyant airmass, with notably strong low-level/deep-layer wind profiles that would conditionally support
supercells including some tornado risk.

...Central/northern Rockies...

A northeast-ejecting shortwave trough, along with steep mid-level
lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture, will likely support
additional thunderstorms across the central to northern Rockies this
afternoon as diurnal heating occurs. A combination of modest
deep-layer wind shear and well-mixed boundary layers will support
potential for strong to severe downburst winds.

...Northern/central California Coast...

A progressive upper wave will continue eastward and reach the
northern California coast tonight. As this occurs, ascent within
the left-exit region of an attendant upper jet, coupled with cool
mid-level temperatures near the center of the upper low, will
support isolated thunderstorms across northern/central California.
Winds within the lowest 1-2 km AGL should increase to around 40 kt
as the wave moves onshore, which will contribute to the potential
for convective downdrafts to produce a few locally damaging wind gusts.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 04/11/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 121256
SWODY1
SPC AC 121254

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Valid 121300Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today into
evening mainly across parts of Texas and perhaps other nearby parts
of the southern Plains. More isolated severe storms may occur across
portions of the Upper Great Lakes and northern Rockies.

...Texas/Southern Plains...

A rather complex scenario exists early today attributable to several
factors including an MCS that de-intensified/decayed generally near
I-35 in Texas overnight, with residual cloud cover and outflow
impacts. Potentially focused in vicinity of outflow, the passing
mid-level wave and persistent warm/moist advection may support storm persistence and redevelopment/intensification later today across
central Texas into parts of east Texas and possibly Louisiana within
a moderately unstable environment.

In the wake of the mid-level wave, mid-level height rises/subsidence
are otherwise anticipated coincident with the dryline from central
Kansas south-southwestward across western Oklahoma and
west/southwest Texas. The extent and likelihood of storm development
later today is highly uncertain, but if/where storms do form, the
environment would generally be supportive of supercells and related
hazards given ample buoyancy and moderate deep-layer shear.

...Minnesota/Wisconsin...

A surface low over the northern Plains will migrate eastward along
the U.S./Canadian border through the day, reaching northern
Minnesota by around peak heating. A narrow tongue of returning
moisture may support a corridor of sufficient ascent and buoyancy
for deep convection. A few surface-based supercells could occur
along the frontal zone where dewpoints may reach into the mid/upper
50s F. While this potential appears low/uncertain per latest
guidance, some tornado threat could materialize along the front.
Hail/wind will otherwise be possible regionally on an isolated basis.

...Northern Rockies...

Ahead of an approaching upper wave, mid-level moisture will support
another day of fairly modest surface-based buoyancy with persistent
30-40 knot flow within the CAPE-bearing layer. Combined with
somewhat deep boundary-layer mixing, this may support strong to
severe downburst winds with the more robust convective cells, mainly
this afternoon through early evening.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 04/12/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 151247
SWODY1
SPC AC 151246

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Valid 151300Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for large hail to very large
hail, severe gusts, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible
across portions of the southern Plains toward the Great Lakes this
afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough from the
eastern Dakotas south-southwestward into the southern Rockies. A
few disturbances will migrate eastward coincident with the trough
with the most notable being over the central High Plains this
morning. The aforementioned disturbance will move east reaching the
mid-upper MS Valley with the trailing southern extent of the wave
moving into the MO Ozarks and OK by daybreak Thursday. A weak
diffuse low will move from northern KS to the southwest Great Lakes
by late tonight. Farther east, an MCV near MO-IL will translate
east and become perhaps a focus for storm activity later this
afternoon across OH-PA. A rather complex forecast is apparent due
in large part to considerable convection and related outflow
permeating the warm sector overnight across much of the Slight-Risk area.

...Iowa into the mid MS Valley...

In the wake of showers/storms this morning from IA southward into
MO, a moist and weakly capped airmass will destabilize through early
afternoon. The eastward approach of the mid-level disturbance will
likely contribute towards scattered thunderstorms developing 19-21z
from near the weak low eastward along the composite outflow/frontal
zone into IL-WI and southward into MO within a weakly capped warm
sector. Forecast soundings show straight-line hodographs over IA
with sizable CAPE in the hail growth zone. The potential for
splitting supercells appears evident with the stronger storms
capable of very large hail and perhaps some tornado risk across IA
and northern MO.

...Ozarks into Oklahoma and north Texas...

Morning raobs showed steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7.5-8 deg C/km)
atop a seasonably very moist return-flow airmass. Models generally
show storm development near the dryline by mid afternoon with
initial development becoming supercellular. Large to very large
hail will be possible with the stronger updrafts. Residual outflow
from overnight convection moving into the Ozarks may play a role in
enhancing low-level shear later today. Forecast soundings show
somewhat limited low-level hodographs with a tendency for a
veer-back-veer signature. Additional storms will favor some
clustering and upscale growth with time due in part to the forecast
hodographs. Nonetheless, all hazards will be possible at least
through the early convective life cycle before the possibility for
wind damage and linear structures perhaps evolve during the evening.

...Southern Great Lakes into the Northeast...

The remnants of an overnight squall line are moving east across
NY-PA this morning with a trailing outflow boundary extending
westward into OH and northeast IN. Moist low levels and the
eastward advection of steeper mid-level lapse rates will act to
destabilize the southern Great Lakes into western PA through midday
and into the afternoon. Forcing for ascent and enhancement of flow
associated with the MCV will potentially focus thunderstorms and aid
in their organization potential beginning this afternoon.
Considerable uncertainty remains regarding this scenario and whether
a mesoscale corridor of higher tornado probabilities is needed
(i.e., northeast OH). Will defer to later outlooks to where perhaps
mesoscale corridors of greater wind/hail threat and an isolated risk
for a couple of tornadoes could develop.

..Smith/Dean.. 04/15/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 161236
SWODY1
SPC AC 161234

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NEW YORK INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon over New
York into southern Vermont with damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado
or two the primary threats. Large to very large hail is possible
with stronger storms over the northern half of Arkansas.

...Northeast southward into the central Appalachians and Cumberland Plateau...

Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough over the
mid/upper MS Valley moving east towards the Northeast. A belt of
strong west-southwesterly 500-mb flow (50-65 kt) will overspread
much of the Northeast today in conjunction with the
eastward-migrating shortwave trough. Visible-satellite imagery
shows scattered to broken cloud cover to the south of a west-east
oriented frontal zone extending east from a surface low analyzed
over Lake Huron. Heating of an adequately moist boundary layer
(surface dewpoints in the 56-62 deg F range) will result in weak to
locally moderate buoyancy by midday into the mid afternoon (500-1250
J/kg MLCAPE). Large-scale ascent associated with the approaching
disturbance and convergence in the vicinity of the frontal zone will
lead to scattered storm development this afternoon. Ample mid to
high-level flow will favor storm organization, including the
possibility for a few supercells and an organized band of storms. A
risk for large hail and a tornado could accompany the more intense
cells, whereas the wind risk will tend to focus with linear
structures that evolve. An isolated threat for wind damage and
perhaps hail will extend southward into PA/WV and the Cumberland
Plateau, where a few stronger storms may yield those hazards.

...Mid South...

Satellite imagery shows the trailing portion of the upper shortwave
trough over the western Great Lakes is moving east across OK this
morning. This upper feature and associated mid-level cold pocket
(-16 to -18 deg C at 500 mb) will move across the MO Ozarks and AR
this afternoon. A reservoir of lower 60s deg F surface dewpoints
and strong heating in wake of early day showers and isolated
thunderstorms will favor robust CAPE profiles and elongated mid to
upper portions of the hodograph. Latest guidance shows several
cells developing within a weakly capped airmass by mid afternoon.
The stronger storms will likely become supercells yielding a risk
for large to very large hail (1 to 3 inches in diameter). Modest
low-level flow will tend to limit low-level mesocyclone intensity
and the lessen the overall tornado risk. A couple of smaller
clusters may evolve during the early evening with an isolated wind
threat potentially ensuing before this activity weakens by mid
evening.

...Edwards Plateau into the TX Big Country and western north TX...

Moderate to strong potential instability is forecast to develop
beneath steep lapse rates, along and east of a dryline. Although
neutral to weak shortwave ridging is expected today, some of the
latest model guidance shows isolated to widely scattered storm
development by late afternoon on the northwestern rim of richer
low-level moisture arcing from the Edwards Plateau into western
north TX. Strong heating will likely erode appreciable remaining
convective inhibition by 20-22 UTC. Strong west-southwesterly
100-kt 200-mb flow will elongate hodographs amidst a moderately
buoyant airmass. Widely spaced/isolated supercells will mainly
yield a large hail threat late this afternoon into the early
evening.

..Smith/Dean.. 04/16/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 181233
SWODY1
SPC AC 181232

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable mainly of damaging
winds will be possible today across the upper Ohio Valley and
central Appalachians.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a large-scale upper trough
over the Upper Midwest into the south-central Plains. An elongated
mid-level vorticity lobe and associated speed max will quickly move
eastward across the Midwest today and reach the Lower Great Lakes
and upper OH Valley late tonight. Farther south, a belt of strong west-southwesterly flow associated with a subtropical jet will
reside over TX.

A cold front extending from a low near James Bay southward through
the Great Lakes and into TX will continue to push east and southeast
through the period. Convective outflow over the OH Valley to the
east of the front will eventually be overtaken by the front later
today as a band of showers/thunderstorms develops over the upper OH
Valley by early afternoon.

...OH Valley into the Appalachians...

Some heating combined with a gradually moistening airmass (55-60 deg
F surface dewpoints) will result in weak destabilization by midday
as convective development ensues near the preceding outflow/wind
shift and front. Ample mid to high-level flow will aid in some
potential for storm organization, mainly in the form of a few
stronger cells and linear bands. Widely scattered strong to severe
gusts capable of wind damage will likely be the primary hazard, but
an isolated risk for hail or a brief tornado is possible with the
strongest cells. This activity will likely weaken by early evening
as it encounters a slightly drier and less unstable airmass with east extent.

...Central Texas...

Scattered showers and elevated thunderstorms are expected throughout
much of the day as the cold front rapidly undercuts a moist and
unstable air mass. The 12 UTC Del Rio, TX raob shows an 8.2 deg
C/km 700-500 mb lapse rate. Forecast soundings show MUCAPE parcels
rooted in the 850-700 mb layer, with effective deep-layer shear of
50-60 kt. Although an isolated risk for large hail appears to be
the main hazard with the stronger cells, there has been some
indication that a localized risk for severe gusts could accompany
the strongest cores. For short-term details regarding a risk for
hail/wind with a few stronger thunderstorms this morning extending
from the Concho Valley east-northeast towards DFW, reference MCD #490.

..Smith/Dean.. 04/18/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 041254
SWODY1
SPC AC 041252

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
KANSAS ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging
wind are possible across portions of the Midwest this afternoon into
tonight. A conditional threat for severe storms with large to very
large hail extends into portions of the central/southern Plains.

...Synopsis...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a large upper low off the
central CA coast, with an extensive fetch of southwesterly flow
aloft from the base of this low through northern Mexico and the
Southwest States into the southern High Plains. A deep cyclone
exists over central Canada as well. Between these two primary
features, a low-amplitude shortwave trough is currently moving
southeastward across NE.

Several shortwave troughs are forecast to rotate around the Canadian
cyclone, contributing to some deepening and eastward progression. An
associated surface low, currently over northwestern Ontario, will
move eastward as well. The deepening of the upper trough across the
northern Plains and progression of the surface low will force a cold
front southward/southeastward across the Upper Midwest and Middle MO
Valley by this evening, and through the central Plains, and Lower MO
and Mid MS Valleys by early tomorrow. Increasing low-level moisture
is anticipated ahead of this cold front, supporting the potential
for thunderstorms as this front interacts with this moisture and
associated buoyancy.

...Eastern KS into Mid MS Valley and Lower MI...

Thunderstorm development is anticipated during the afternoon, both
along the front, which should extend through southern WI and
eastern/southern IA, and within the warm-air advection regime ahead
of the front. Thunderstorms along the front will initially be
displaced north of the better shear and buoyancy, so somewhat
transient updraft structures and/or frontal undercutting will likely
limit storm severity. Even so, high cloud bases and a deeply mixed
boundary layer could result in a few strong gusts. Later in the
evening, more storm development appears likely on the front as it
moves into eastern KS and northern/central MO. Here, stronger shear
and buoyancy should support more robust updrafts and a relatively
higher probability for severe storms. Large hail is the primary risk.

Any thunderstorms that develop within the warm-air advection regime
ahead of the front during the afternoon and early evening should
interact with greater buoyancy (particularly from northeast IL,
northern IL and southern Lower MI where less boundary-layer mixing
could result in slightly higher dewpoints) and moderate vertical
shear. A few stronger, more organized storms are possible in this
area, although weaker upper flow could limit discreteness and result
in a trend towards a more clustered storm mode.

...Central Kansas into Oklahoma and northern Texas...

A sharp dryline is expected to develop from central KS
south-southwestward into northwest TX. Given the veering surface
winds, convergence along the dryline will likely be modest
throughout much of the afternoon. However, some backing is possible
during the evening as a surface low moves eastward across southwest
KS towards northwest OK. Strong diurnal heating will likely erode
most convective inhibition by the early evening, while steep lapse
rates contribute to moderate buoyancy. These factors could be enough
to force isolated initiation on the dryline from central KS into
northwest TX. Upper-level flow will be strengthening across the
region throughout the period, and any storms that do form will have
ample deep-layer shear to support supercells. Large to very large
hail would be the primary risk early in the convective cycle, with
dry mid-levels also supporting strong downdrafts as storms begin to
weaken and collapse.

..Mosier/Dean.. 05/04/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 051253
SWODY1
SPC AC 051252

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
ARKANSAS AND EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms are possible Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday night from northeast Texas into western Tennessee, with the
main threat centered over Arkansas. The strongest storms will be
capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. More
isolated strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Northeast.

...Northeast TX into the Mid-South...

Regional radar imagery shows a cluster of showers and thunderstorms
moving across central/northeast AR. Outflow associated with this
cluster stretches from north of LIT northwestward between FSM and
FYV into northeast OK. Surface analysis also places a low over
western OK. A cold front extends east-northeastward from this low
through far northeast OK and southern MO, and a dryline extends
southwestward from the low through the Permian Basin. These
boundaries, particularly the cold front and outflow boundary, could
act as a focal points for redevelopment as the airmass across the
region destabilizes amid heating and low-level moisture advection
this afternoon.

A combination of afternoon temperatures in the low 80s, dewpoints in
the mid 60s, and steep mid-level lapse rates will result in moderate
buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 1500 to 2000 J/kg) within the warm
sector this afternoon. Convergence along the front will be modest
and large-scale height rises are anticipated. Some weak capping may
prevail as well, particularly if the current cloudiness persists.
These factors introduce notable uncertainty into the forecast,
particularly regarding overall storm coverage. Seemingly, these
factors should contribute to a widely scattered, but discrete, storm
mode. The placement and evolution of the outflow may become apparent
as heating begins, with observable trends in cloud cover possible as
well. These factors could potentially reveal a corridor of higher
storm coverage. However, confidence in the placement of such a
corridor is currently low, precluding the introduction of any higher probabilities.

That being said, the kinematic environment should be very supportive
of supercells this afternoon/evening, with strong upper flow
resulting in bulk shear around 60 kt. Any storms that do mature
should be severe and capable of all hazards. Large to very large
hail (i.e. 2"+) is possible early in each storm's convective cycle.
Tornadoes are also possible, particularly from central AR into
western TN where the low/mid-level flow will be strongest. A strong
tornado is possible with a sustained discrete supercell. Storms may
eventually grow upscale into clusters, at which point damaging winds
would become the primary severe risk.

...Lower Great Lakes into northern New England...

Early morning surface analysis placed a low over southeast Lower MI,
along a cold front that extends from central Quebec southwestward
through southern IL. This low is forecast to progress northeastward
along the St. Lawrence Valley vicinity as the cold front also
progresses eastward in response to an eastward shift of the parent
cyclone from northern Ontario into northern Quebec. Modest low-level
moisture will advect northeastward into the Lower Great Lakes and
Northeast ahead of this cold front, with low 50s dewpoints likely
reaching as far north as ME. This low-level moisture coupled with
afternoon temperatures in the 70s will support modest buoyancy,
despite poor lapse rates. Thunderstorms are anticipated along and
ahead of the eastward-progressing front as it moves into the
destabilized airmass from the Lower Great Lakes into northern ME.

Strong deep-layer vertical will be in place, supported by relatively
deep southwesterly flow, suggesting the potential for organized
storm structures. However, this flow will be largely parallel to the
boundary, with a bowing linear mode expected to be dominant (as
shown by much of the convection-allowing guidance). Damaging gusts
will be possible with the strongest storms, although transient
updraft strength should keep the overall coverage and intensity
modest. Isolated hail is possible with a few storms as well.
Predominantly linear mode should keep the tornado risk low, although
a low-probability threat still exists, particularly if a pocket of
strong buoyancy can develop across Upstate NY.

..Mosier/Dean.. 05/05/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 071251
SWODY1
SPC AC 071249

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH GEORGIA AND NORTHERN
FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE FLORDIA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds and a
couple tornadoes are possible today across southeast Alabama, and
portions of south Georgia and north Florida, including the
Panhandle. Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible in
parts of the Carolinas, as well as the lower Rio Grande Valley and
Deep South Texas.

...Southern AL/Southern GA/FL Panhandle into northern FL...

Regional radar imagery shows showers and thunderstorms ongoing from
far eastern LA northeastward into southern GA. These storms are
occurring along and ahead of a cold front that extends from a
surface low over northwest GA southwestward into the western Gulf.
The environment preceding this front is moist, modestly buoyant, and
strongly sheared (i.e. 50 to 70 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear). These
conditions are supporting occasional intensification of the updrafts
embedded within the predominately linear structures.

This trend is forecast to continue for at least the next few hours
before the stronger low-level flow (which currently extends from the
western FL Panhandle/southern AL through southern GA) gradually
shifts northeastward. As such, the greatest tornado potential will
exist during the first few hours of the forecast period. Otherwise,
damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard as storms progress
southeast through the central/western FL Panhandle and northern FL.

...Carolinas...

Buoyancy is expected to be lower here than areas farther southwest,
with poor lapse rates expected to limit instability to generally
less than 500 j/kg. The surface low over northwest GA is forecast to
shift northeastward throughout the day, with low to mid-level wind
fields strengthening at the same time. Ascent near the low and
associated front coupled with the modest buoyancy will result in
occasionally deeper convective elements along and ahead of the cold
front from late morning into afternoon. Robust deep-layer wind
fields across the region will support the potential for damaging
gusts with any deeper, more persistent updrafts.

...Lower Rio Grande Valley/South TX...

A few isolated thunderstorms have developed east of Del Rio where
steep mid-level lapse rates are supporting elevated buoyancy atop a
stable boundary layer (as observed on the 12Z DRT sounding). This
elevated buoyancy will likely persist throughout the day, combining
with strong deep-layer vertical shear (i.e. effective bulk shear
from 50 to 60 kt) to support the potential for supercell structures
capable of isolated large hail and locally damaging wind gusts.
Additionally, there is a low-probability chance for a few storms
farther south into the Lower RGV this evening, where the environment
remains supportive of large hail.

..Mosier/Dean.. 05/07/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 081230
SWODY1
SPC AC 081228

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0728 AM CDT Fri May 08 2026

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are
possible from southeast Kansas through much of central and eastern
Oklahoma into north Texas Friday afternoon into Friday night. More
sparse occurrences of large hail and damaging winds are possible
across the Ozarks, central and south TX, and the Gulf Coast states.

...Central Plains...

Morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over western KS
tracking southeastward. Full sunshine will lead to strong heating/destabilization ahead of the associated cold front over
eastern KS and much of OK. Dewpoints in the 50s, coupled with steep
low/mid level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of
1000-1500 J/kg and the development of scattered thunderstorms along
the front. These storms will track southeastward through the
evening across much of OK and into north TX. Forecast soundings
indicate favorable vertical shear profiles for supercell structures
capable of large hail.

Eventual upscale organization into linear/bowing structures will aid
in a risk of damaging winds as storms persist into the overnight
period across the ArkLaTex. While the overall severe threat should
diminish by this time, storms may occasionally result in damaging
wind gusts and hail.

...Central Gulf Coast...

Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning
along/north of a surface boundary that extends from southeast TX
along the Gulf Coast into north FL. Storms are expected to increase
in coverage during the afternoon along the front, with a few strong
to severe cells expected. Gusty winds are the primary concern.

..Hart/Wendt.. 05/08/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 131215
SWODY1
SPC AC 131214

Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0714 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL MT
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN UT...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible
across portions of the northern High Plains and Great Basin this
afternoon and evening. Other areas of isolated severe wind/hail
risk occur over the upper Ohio Valley and the Texas Panhandle.

...WV/PA/NY...

A large upper trough is deepening as it tracks southeastward across
the Great Lakes and Midwest into the Upper Ohio Valley. The
associated surface cold front is sweeping across OH, and will extend
from central NY into western PA and northern WV later today. Clouds
are currently prevalent across this region, but some
clearing/heating is expected as low-level moisture is transported
into the area. The result will be narrow corridor of sufficient
CAPE for thunderstorm development along the front from NY into WV.
Given the strength of the upper trough and winds aloft, there is
concern for a few severe storms capable of damaging winds and
perhaps hail...mainly in the 18-00z period.

...Great Basin...

A second strong and progressive upper trough has moved ashore over
OR/WA and will spread mid-level height falls and large scale ascent
across much of the Great Basin and Rockies today and tonight.
Low-level moisture is very sparse ahead of the system, but pockets
of strong heating from northern UT into eastern ID/western WY and
central MT will result in inverted-v profiles and sufficient CAPE
for isolated charge separation and robust updrafts. CAM solutions
suggest a risk of high-based fast-moving showers and occasional
thunderstorms affecting the region, with the risk of severe wind gusts.

...TX Panhandle...

A surface dryline will become established over the TX panhandle
later today, where temperatures will climb well into the 90s.
Forecast soundings show only modest CAPE and limited risk of
convective initiation over this area. However, any storm that can
persist in this environment would conditionally pose a threat of
damaging wind gusts and large hail. Will maintain the ongoing MRGL
risk for this conditional risk.

..Hart/Wendt.. 05/13/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 141202
SWODY1
SPC AC 141200

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with hail and severe wind gusts are possible from
Kansas/Missouri into west Texas.

...KS...

An upper ridge is centered over the central/southern Plains this
morning, but will break down through the forecast period as a series
of weak shortwave troughs emanate from the Rockies across the
central Plains. Meanwhile, strong southerly low-level winds will
develop across TX/OK/KS, aiding in northward return of moisture and considerable destabilization. The western periphery of the
returning moisture will be noted by a diffuse dryline from western
KS into western OK, where temperatures will climb into the mid/upper
90s today.

By late afternoon, forecast parameters will be quite favorable for
supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds across much of
central KS. However, weak large scale forcing and a formidable cap
to the east of the dryline significantly limits the confidence in
thunderstorm development/maintenance. Any storm that forms will
pose a severe risk, but coverage may be very isolated. Have shrunk
the risk areas, but will maintain the ongoing SLGT for now.

...West TX/OK...

The aforementioned dryline will extend southward across western OK
into west TX. Hot and dry conditions will develop to the west of
the dryline, where model consensus suggesting scattered high-based thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon. Forecast soundings
show near dry-adiabatic low and mid level lapse rates, and
sufficient CAPE for a risk of dry microbursts or occasional
multicell clusters capable of damaging winds. This activity is
likely to struggle as it spreads east of the dryline this evening
due to a strong capping inversion.

..Hart/Wendt.. 05/14/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 191300
SWODY1
SPC AC 191258

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MID-SOUTH...OHIO
VALLEY...AND LOWER GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible today from the
southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South, Ohio
Valley, and lower Great Lakes. Damaging winds and hail will be the
primary threats. A greater threat for large to very large hail
should exist across parts of west-central Texas.

...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley...

Numerous thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across
central/eastern OK into northwest AR and southern MO. Most of this
activity is occurring along and north of a southward-moving cold
front, and should therefore pose a limited severe risk in the short
term. Eventual regeneration along the cold front and/or
strengthening of ongoing activity should occur later today across TX
into the lower MS Valley/Mid-South. Mid-level flow is forecast to
remain fairly modest, and deep-layer shear for most areas will tend
to be marginal. Still, filtered daytime heating of a moist low-level
airmass will support moderate to strong instability along/ahead of
the front by early afternoon. Scattered severe/damaging winds should
be the main threat with loosely organized clusters and bowing line
segments. This wind threat may continue to the TX/LA Coast this evening/overnight. Some potential for supercells should also exist
across parts of west-central TX and vicinity, where steeper
mid-level lapse rates and greater instability is forecast to be in
place. Large hail appears possible with any supercells that can be
sustained, and isolated 2+ inch diameter hail may occur. With time
this evening, this convection may also grow upscale into a bowing
cluster and pose a greater severe wind risk.

...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast...

Modestly enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow will be present today
over the OH Valley and lower Great Lakes regions, as a positively
tilted mid/upper-level trough moves from the Upper Midwest into
eastern Canada. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop
along/ahead of a surface cold front this afternoon as the
pre-frontal airmass gradually destabilizes. Stronger instability
should be present this afternoon across the OH Valley, but greater
deep-layer shear may tend to remain mostly displaced farther north.
Even so, some thunderstorm organization should occur, with
multicells and bowing line segments possible. Scattered
severe/damaging winds should be the main threat, although isolated
hail could occur with the strongest cores. This convection should
spread into the lower Great Lakes by mid to late evening, before
eventually weakening across the Northeast late tonight. A separate
area of convection may develop this afternoon across parts of New
England, and also pose a threat for mainly occasional damaging winds.

..Gleason/Marsh.. 05/19/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 201232
SWODY1
SPC AC 201230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Valid 201300Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...AND PARTS OF WEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe/damaging winds and isolated hail will be possible
with thunderstorms from the central Appalachians into the
Mid-Atlantic and southern New England this afternoon and evening.
Severe thunderstorms with large hail and isolated severe gusts may
also occur today across parts of west/south-central Texas.

...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England...

On the southern fringe of upper troughing over eastern Canada and
the Great Lakes, a weak/convectively augmented mid-level shortwave
trough will progress northeastward across the OH Valley and central Appalachians through the day, eventually reaching the Mid-Atlantic
tonight. Robust daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level
airmass (surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 60s) ahead of
a surface cold front will aid in the development of moderate
instability by early afternoon. Ongoing convection across OH/KY this
morning may eventually strengthen as it encounters this
destabilizing airmass, and additional thunderstorms are expected to
develop along/near the cold front by mid afternoon from the central Appalachians into portions of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England.

Stronger flow aloft will tend to lag/remain north of the cold front,
but modest enhancement to the west-southwesterly mid-level flow
along/near the front should support around 20-30 kt of deep-layer
shear. This will be sufficient for some updraft organization with
mainly multicells expected, although marginal supercell structures
may occur. Low-level lapse rates are expected to become quite steep
through the day, evidenced by a general lack of clouds on recent
visible satellite imagery from central/eastern WV into the
Mid-Atlantic. This will likely aid efficient downward momentum
transfer in convective downdrafts, with scattered severe/damaging
winds possible as multiple clusters spread east-northeastward
through the afternoon/evening. Isolated hail may also occur with the
stronger cores. A Slight Risk for severe/damaging winds has been
introduced from parts of WV to southern New England given increased
confidence in multiple clusters traversing a narrow zone along/ahead
of the front.

...Eastern New Mexico into West/South-Central Texas...

A squall line has generally moved offshore the lower/middle TX Coast
this morning. In its wake, a post-frontal low-level upslope flow
regime will persist today across west TX into eastern NM. Embedded
within large-scale upper troughing over the Great Basin/Southwest, a low-amplitude shortwave trough over northern Mexico this morning
will move northeastward across the southern High Plains by this
afternoon. A relatively early start to convective development
appears probable across the higher terrain of far west TX, possibly
as early as 17-19Z. With a combination of moderate instability and
40-50 kt of deep-layer shear forecast, supercells with mainly a
large hail threat should be the primary mode initially. Additional
robust thunderstorms may form later in the afternoon/early evening
across a broader portion of the southern High Plains, and also pose
a threat for large hail and isolated severe winds. Some potential
for clustering this evening remains apparent into south-central TX,
and supercells from north-central Mexico could also move into this
region this evening/overnight.

..Gleason/Marsh.. 05/20/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 211251
SWODY1
SPC AC 211250

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Valid 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and isolated severe
gusts should occur across parts of the central/southern High Plains
this afternoon and evening. A tornado or two may also occur.

...Central/Southern High Plains into South Texas...

Within large-scale upper troughing over the northern Rockies/Great
Basin, an embedded mid-level shortwave trough and associated jet
will translate southeastward across the central Rockies and adjacent
High Plains this afternoon and evening. Forcing for ascent preceding
this feature will encourage initial isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development across the higher terrain of central CO by
mid afternoon. A weak southern-stream perturbation should also
foster scattered convection farther south across the southern High
Plains as well.

The airmass across the central/southern High Plains should gradually destabilize today, as modest moisture in a persistent low-level
upslope flow regime continues streaming northwestward across these
regions beneath steepened mid-level lapse rates. Weak to moderate
instability is forecast to be in place by mid afternoon, with
sufficient deep-layer shear for a mix of multicells and supercells.
Initial development should pose a threat for large hail, before
eventual clustering this evening potentially results in a greater
threat for severe winds. The primary change with this update was to
expand the Marginal Risk across parts of west into south TX, where
any convection which develops eastward may pose an isolated
hail/wind threat this afternoon through tonight.

...Southern Virginia into North Carolina...

Daytime heating south of a cold front should help steepen low-level
lapse rates across parts of southern VA into NC by this afternoon.
While both mid-level flow and lapse rates are expected to remain
fairly modest across this area, an isolated threat for damaging
winds may exist with loosely organized clusters that can develop
along the higher terrain and/or sagging cold front this afternoon.

...Coastal Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley...

Another expansive MCS has moved offshore from the lower TX Coast
this morning. Generally weak offshore surface flow continues across
the middle/upper TX Coast into southern LA. Eventually, a more
southerly component to the low-level winds may encourage greater
low-level moisture to advance inland later today across parts of the
lower MS Valley. While a couple of stronger thunderstorms with gusty
winds appear possible, modest mid-level flow and poor lapse rates
aloft should tend to limit the overall severe threat.

..Gleason/Marsh.. 05/21/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 221250
SWODY1
SPC AC 221249

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large to very large hail and severe gusts are
possible late this afternoon into the evening in parts of the
southern High Plains.

...Southern High Plains...

Modest cyclonic mid-level flow will extend from the Interior West
through the base of the trough over the south-central U.S.
Water-vapor imagery shows a weak disturbance migrating east across
the Permian Basin this morning. A seasonably moist airmass
maintained via southeasterly low-level flow will heat and become
moderately to strongly unstable by mid afternoon.

Model forecast soundings show relatively cool 500-mb temperatures
(near -14 deg C) with steep low- to mid-level lapse rates later this
afternoon. Strong heating will locally erode appreciable remaining
convective inhibition and widely scattered thunderstorms will likely
develop by late afternoon. Although westerly flow will likely
remain modest (20 kt from 600 to 200 mb), strongly veering flow will
result in 25-30 kt effective shear, supporting supercells initially.
Large to very large hail will be possible with the more intense
updrafts. Increasing storm coverage during the evening will tend to
promote some upscale growth into a linear cluster with severe gusts
becoming more prevalent. The risk for severe gusts (60-80 mph) may
focus during the 00-03 UTC period before a gradual waning in
coverage/intensity by late evening.

...Central Gulf Coast States/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys...

Water-vapor imagery shows a disturbance moving northeastward across
the ArkLaMiss this morning and moving towards western portions of
TN/KY and the lower OH Valley. Surface analysis indicates a moist
airmass featuring dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s over TN to
the lower 70s over the central Gulf Coast. Despite widespread cloud
cover, some thinning of the cloud shield is expected as temperatures
slowly warm through the early afternoon. Models generally show weak
buoyancy (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and skinny CAPE profiles and
tempered lapse rates (reference the Nashville and Birmingham 12 UTC
raobs). However, models show some enhancement/strengthening of
925-500 mb flow moving northeastward across MS/AL into TN through
the mid-late afternoon. As a result, some enlargement of hodographs
will likely occur during the diurnal heating cycle and a few weak
supercell structures will probably develop. Yet, the ongoing
thunderstorm band over eastern MS may be ill timed as it moves
northeastward across western/northern AL through midday.
Nonetheless, an isolated risk for a tornado seems possible over much
of this general region. A risk for isolated damaging gusts may also
accompany some of the stronger thunderstorms before this activity
wanes by the early evening.

...Mid Missouri Valley...

An upper-level trough and an associated mid-level jet streak will
move northeastward today across the north-central U.S. At the
surface, an axis of low-level moisture will be in place from eastern
Kansas northward into eastern Nebraska. Ahead of the trough,
scattered thunderstorms will develop in the afternoon along and near
the moist axis. Surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will
contribute to weak instability with MLCAPE likely peaking in the 500
to 1000 J/kg range across eastern Nebraska. RAP forecast soundings
near Omaha suggest that 0-6 km shear will reach 35 knots as the
trough approaches this afternoon, which would support the
development of low-topped supercells capable of isolated severe wind
gusts and hail. The severe threat is expected to persist into the
early evening.

..Smith/Weinman.. 05/22/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 261244
SWODY1
SPC AC 261243

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
southwest into south-central Texas. Large hail, severe wind gusts,
and a couple tornadoes are possible through this evening.

...Southwest into South-Central Texas...

Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a weak mid-level trough over
southern NM and Far West TX. This upper feature will slowly migrate
east into the Permian Basin and Concho Valley later this
afternoon/evening. Early morning showers/thunderstorms and their
associated outflow and relatively cool air have overspread the
Permian Basin. To the southeast of the rain-cooled airmass, the 12
UTC Del Rio, TX raob sampled moderately steep 700-500 mb lapse rates
(7.3 deg C/km) and 2200 J/kg MUCAPE. A weak area of low pressure
near the Big Bend will maintain a moist, easterly low-level fetch
into the Edwards Plateau. Heating via cloud breaks and surface
dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F will contribute to
1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon.

Strong veering of the low-level wind profile with 20-25 kt westerly
500-mb flow will support organized storms, including supercells with
the stronger updrafts. Some tornado threat may evolve with one or
two more intense supercells but this risk will largely be dependent
on mesoscale factors. Clusters of storms are eventually expected
with the severe risk continuing into the evening with the stronger
storms capable of wind/hail.

...Kentucky...

A seasonably moisture-rich airmass is located along and south of a
residual frontal zone draped from the confluence of the OH-MS Rivers east-northeast across the OH Valley. Despite considerable cloud
cover, some heating will result in weak instability. Widely
scattered to scattered thunderstorms coincident with peak heating
are forecast. Modest southwesterly mid-level flow (20-30 kt) may
act to aid in some organization of cells. An isolated risk for
damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado are possible with this activity.

...Upper Midwest...

A weak MCV was noted over the Mid MO Valley this morning embedded
within a weak westerly mid-level flow regime to the north of a
flattened mid-level anticyclone. In the low levels, a
quasi-stationary boundary will be draped generally west to east
across the region. South of this boundary, surface dewpoints in the
60s F will contribute to pockets of moderate instability by
afternoon. Model guidance indicates scattered storm coverage later
this afternoon in the wake of morning showers/storms over parts of
this region. Isolated wind/hail will be the primary hazards with
the stronger storms before this activity weakens by early evening.

...Northern Rockies...

A belt of south-southeasterly 20-30 kt mid-level flow will reside in
between a mid-level cyclone over northern CA and an anticyclone over
the Midwest. A lee trough over the northern High Plains will focus thunderstorm development later today as the boundary layer
destabilizes. Low-level lapse rates will be very steep, which will
contribute to a potential for severe wind gusts. Hail will also be
possible, mainly over western Montana where instability is forecast
to be the strongest.

..Smith/Weinman.. 05/26/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 271246
SWODY1
SPC AC 271245

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Valid 271300Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
Mid-Atlantic states this afternoon into the early evening. Strong
to severe gusts (50-65 mph) capable of wind damage will be the
primary hazard with the stronger thunderstorms.

...Mid-Atlantic/Ohio Valley...

An upper-level trough over the Great Lakes will move southeast
towards the upper OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic states during the period.
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a lead disturbance over
southern OH moving east across the central Appalachians. In the low
levels, an analyzed frontal zone has been modulated by ongoing showers/thunderstorms and it will move southeast today. A moist
airmass ahead of the front, featuring dewpoints in the upper 60s to
lower 70s F, will gradually destabilize through early afternoon. East-southeastward moving clusters are forecast to evolve by later
this afternoon. Scattered strong to severe gusts (50-65 mph)
capable of wind damage will be the primary risk with the stronger thunderstorms, although marginally severe hail may accompany the
stronger cores this afternoon.

...Southern ID into eastern OR...

A belt of strong easterly mid-level flow will remain over southwest
ID into southeast OR to the north of a stationary, deep-layer
cyclone over the Sierra Nevada. Heating of an adequately moist
boundary layer will steepen low-level lapse rates by early
afternoon. Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast
to develop this afternoon. Forecast hodographs show 20-45 kt
700-500 mb flow (strongest over southeast OR) and mean storm motions
35-45 kt. These flow fields coupled with evaporatively cooled
downdrafts will likely result in a mix of quickly moving cells and smaller-scale linear clusters. This activity will potentially be
capable of severe gusts (60-75 mph) before diminishing by mid-late evening.

...Western Great Lakes...

Northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across the western
Great Lakes today, as a shortwave trough moves southeastward across
the region. At the surface, a pocket of maximized low-level
moisture will be located over Wisconsin, where MLCAPE is expected to
peak in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. An isolated risk for large
hail/damaging gusts are possible with the stronger thunderstorms.

...Southern Texas Panhandle/West Texas/Far Western Oklahoma...

Somewhat displaced from an expansive overnight MCS along the TX
coast, an airmass featuring upper 50s to lower 60s F dewpoints will
destabilize beneath a weak mid- to upper-level trough. Widely
scattered to scattered storms are forecast to develop by late
afternoon and aggregate into small clusters this evening. Isolated
large hail/severe gusts are the primary severe hazards.

..Smith/Weinman.. 05/27/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 281254
SWODY1
SPC AC 281253

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN IDAHO
INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over western Idaho and
east of the Cascades in Washington and Oregon. Severe gusts (60-85
mph), large hail, and perhaps a tornado are the forecast hazards
this afternoon through the late evening.

...Columbia Basin vicinity into ID/northern NV...

A mid- to upper-level low over the Sierra Nevada will move little
during the period. Water-vapor imagery this morning indicates a
disturbance over NV will move north and northwestward through
eastern NV into eastern OR by early evening. In the low levels, an
area of low pressure is forecast to develop by late afternoon and
migrate from the ID/OR border into the Columbia Basin.

A plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates arc around the northern
periphery of the western U.S. low and extend from the Snake Valley
westward into OR/WA. As heating of a seasonably moist airmass
occurs, initial thunderstorm activity will gradually shift from
south to north from northern NV/southern ID and southern OR. Model
forecast soundings show steep low to mid tropospheric lapse rates
favorable for evaporative cooling and the development of strong to
severe downdrafts. Slightly greater buoyancy is shown in model
guidance farther north in northern OR into western ID (1500 J/kg
MLCAPE). As storms move into this region during the late afternoon
to evening timeframe, it is possible a more extensive threat for
severe gusts develops. Regardless, severe outflow both with the
stronger cores and linearly oriented clusters appear to be the main
hazard. Large hail may accompany the stronger cells. A continued
threat for scattered severe gusts may occur into the late evening as
this activity shifts northward into interior portions of WA.

...East-central Colorado...

A mid-level trough will move northward across the central Plains
today. At the surface, upslope east-southeasterly flow will be in
place across eastern Colorado. Along the Front Range, the Denver
cyclone is expected to develop by afternoon. Topographic lift and
increasing low-level convergence will result in scattered
thunderstorm development from the Palmer Divide northward into
north-central Colorado. Forecast soundings along this corridor by
late afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 20 to 30 knot range with
700-500 mb lapse rates around 8 C/km. This should support a hail
threat with the stronger cells.

..Smith/Weinman.. 05/28/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 291242
SWODY1
SPC AC 291241

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Valid 291300Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEST TEXAS
INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms capable of sporadic large hail and
scattered severe winds are expected this afternoon and evening
across portions of western Texas. More isolated severe thunderstorms
are likely across parts of the central High Plains, southern Utah,
and the northern Rockies.

...Southern Plains and central High Plains...

Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level low migrating eastward across
the Mojave Desert towards the southern Great Basin. A 90-kt 250-mb sub-tropical jet over Baja and Sonora Mexico will progress eastward
into the southern High Plains by this afternoon. The nose of this
speed max will overspread a moist sector east of a dryline where
severe thunderstorm development is forecast later this
afternoon/evening. Farther north, a modestly deepening lee trough
will focus storm initiation over the central High Plains.

Despite some mid and high-level clouds, model guidance shows strong
heating this afternoon and erosion of appreciable convective
inhibition by mid afternoon. A mid-level disturbance implied in
satellite imagery this morning over central NM will move northeast
into western KS and the TX Panhandle by early evening. Scattered
thunderstorms are forecast to develop near the dryline/lee trough.
Forecast hodographs show some elongation across west TX due to the
nose the upper speed max. Have included 15-percent hail
probabilities where supercell development appears greatest [due in
part to more favorable hodographs and within the northern rim of
richer moisture sampled by the 12 UTC Del Rio, TX raob (17.3 g/kg
mean mixing ratio)]. Large hail (1.5 to 2.5 inches in diameter)
will be possible with the supercells. Severe gusts are forecast to
become more prevalent during the evening as mergers and outflow
consolidate into a few linear clusters. Severe gusts of 60-80 mph
are possible as this activity shifts eastward into the Low Rolling
Plains and southwest OK during the evening.

Through the late evening, isentropic ascent near the terminus of the
nocturnal jet may support elevated, loosely organized convection
across portions of northwest OK and western KS. Isolated hail/wind
may accompany the stronger storms over the central High Plains into
central OK where storm coverage will probably remain isolated.

...Northern Rockies/Montana...

Diurnally-driven orographic ascent within the terrain of northern ID
and southwest MT will likely support isolated thunderstorm
development by late afternoon given weak capping and northward
advection of steep mid-level lapse rates. Residual low-level
moisture across north-central MT (dewpoints in the upper 40s to low
50s) coupled with 30-35 knot southerly mid-level flow will likely
promote intensification and some degree of organization (possibly
into transient supercells and/or organized bands) through the early
evening hours. Sporadic large hail and severe gusts appear possible
with the most intense convection as it spreads north towards the
Canadian border.

...Southern Utah...

A few high-based storms developing within a deeply mixed boundary
layer (inverted-V profile) may yield an isolated risk for severe
gusts (60-70 mph).

..Smith/Kerr.. 05/29/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)