ACUS01 KWNS 301234
SWODY1
SPC AC 301232

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Valid 301300Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms with large hail, are expected across
parts of the middle and upper Mississippi River Valley tonight
through early Tuesday morning. Isolated strong to marginally severe
storms could occur further east into parts of Lower Michigan early
Tuesday morning as well as over the Texas South Plains this
afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a relatively zonal pattern in
places across the majority of the CONUS. The only exception is
across the Gulf Coast, which is along the northern periphery of
modest subtropical ridging. Recent surface analysis shows a broad
area of low pressure across the central High Plains/central Plains
with several embedded lows, including one over southwest SD, another
over south-central NE, and another near the OK/KS/CO border
intersection. Modest troughing extends between these features, while
a stationary front extends from the southwest SD low
east-northeastward across southern MN and central WI. At 11Z, mid
50s dewpoints extended from south-central OK into the Mid-South,
with 60s dewpoints farther so from central TX into the Lower MS Valley.

Overall upper pattern is expected to remain predominantly zonal
throughout the period as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves
along the US/Canada border, accompanied by a strengthening jet
streak. Substantial low-level moisture advection is expected
throughout the day from the southern Plains/Lower MS Valley into the
Mid MS and OH Valleys and Lower MI. By early tomorrow morning, mid
50s dewpoints will likely extend from southern WI across Lower MI
and into the upper OH Valley, demarcating a developing warm front.

Primary area of thunderstorm development anticipated today is in the
vicinity of the developing warm front from the mid/upper MS Valley
across the Lower Great Lakes into the Upper OH Valley and Northeast.
Isolated thunderstorms are also possible with the moist and
confluent environments of the FL Peninsula and the Lower MS Valley
as well as along the dryline in the southern High Plains and
seasonably moist airmass over the Southwest.

....Mid/Upper MS Valley into Lower MI and the Upper OH Valley...

Significant low-level moisture advection is expected throughout the
day into Mid MS Valley, although this advection will be offset
somewhat by strong heating and deep boundary-layer mixing. General
expectation is that upper 50s dewpoints will reach the IA/MO/central
IL vicinity by 00Z, with mid 50s farther north into southern WI and
southern Lower MI. Given negligible large-scale forcing and strong
mixing, capping is expected prevail throughout the day and into the
early evening. However, beginning around 22-00Z, increasing
mid-level moisture coupled with continued low-level moisture
advection and convergence near a weak surface low could result in
convective initiation across central IA. The earliest development
could be surface based with a trend towards more elevated storms
with time and northeastward extent as warm-air advection increase
during the evening. Steep lapse rates and moderate shear support the
potential for supercells with any more sustained updrafts. Large to
isolated very large hail is the primary severe risk. Even with the
elevated storm character, the prevailing warm/dry conditions above
the shallow return moisture could support strong downdrafts with
strong surface gusts.

Farther east, a few instances of small hail are possible from
western PA into western NY with the thunderstorms expected during
the evening and overnight.

...Southern High Plains...

Isolated thunderstorm development is possible along a dryline
forecast to extend from a weak low in western KS southwestward into
the TX Trans Pecos. Buoyancy will be weak and vertical shear modest
so storm structures are not expected to be particularly robust or
long lived. However, high cloud bases and steep low-level lapse
rates could still support a few stronger gusts at the surface.

..Mosier/Marsh.. 03/30/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 301614
SWODY1
SPC AC 301613

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1113 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Valid 301630Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms with large hail, are expected across
parts of the middle and upper Mississippi River Valley tonight
through early Tuesday morning. Isolated strong to marginally severe
storms could occur further east into parts of Lower Michigan early
Tuesday morning, and over the Texas South Plains this afternoon and evening.

...IA to Lower MI...

Fast zonal flow is present across the northern tier of states today,
with minor perturbations embedded within the flow field affecting
the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes region. A combination of
daytime heating, low-level warm/moist advection, and increasing
low-level convergence along a surface baroclinic zone will result in
scattered thunderstorms after dark over IA. These storms will form
in an environment of steep mid-level lapse rates and strong
deep-layer shear. MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg will promote
strong updrafts with a few supercells possible. Large hail appears
to be the main threat with these storms as they progress eastward
into northern IL/southern WI and slowly weaken with diurnal cooling.

Storms will persist through the night and spread across much of
lower MI. Despite weak instability, a few CAM solutions maintain
vigorous updrafts, supporting a low risk of hail and gusty winds overnight.

...TX Panhandle...

Full sunshine and dewpoints in the 50s will yield a moderately
unstable air mass along the dryline over the TX Panhandle this
evening. Most CAM guidance show isolated thunderstorm development
in this region - mainly in the 23-03z period. Forecast soundings
suggest the low/mid troposphere is dry and will limit the number of
updrafts that can survive. However, any storm that can persist will
pose a risk of gusty winds or hail.

..Hart/Wendt.. 03/30/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 041242
SWODY1
SPC AC 041240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of damaging winds and a tornado risk are
expected across parts of the Lower Great Lakes and middle/upper Ohio
River Valley, mainly this afternoon through early evening. Other
more isolated severe storms may occur across the Tennessee Valley,
Lower Mississippi Valley, and eastern part of Texas.

...Ohio/Eastern Indiana/Lower Michigan to Pennsylvania/New York...

A shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest early today will continue northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes through tonight.
Cyclonically influenced strengthening deep-layer southwesterlies
(50+ kt 700 mb) will overspread Indiana/Michigan toward the Lower
Great Lakes, atop a steadily moistening/heating warm-sector boundary
layer along and north of the Ohio River.

This will be ahead of a surface low and cold front, that is
considerably augmented by generally weakening thunderstorms and
prevalent lingering clouds/outflows through the pre-dawn hours.
These residual factors cast uncertainty regarding the magnitude of
today's overall potential, but a formidable flow field and
guidance-advertised heating/steady diurnal destabilization will
still be supportive of at least some severe potential regionally as
storms redevelop and intensify this afternoon. This includes
damaging wind potential, particularly given the magnitude of low/mid-tropospheric winds and boundary layer mixing, with some
tornado threat as well, mainly in vicinity of the triple
point/nearby warm front. Overall storm intensities should decrease
by mid/late evening, owing to nocturnal boundary-layer influences
and the primary upper-level system spreading away from the region.

...Tennessee Valley/Lower Mississippi Valley/Texas ...

While diminishing in intensity overnight, showers/thunderstorms
remain extensive and prevalent from the Mid-South/Ozarks
southwestward into North Texas, as a synoptic cold front otherwise
continues to progress southeastward across these regions. While
details are complexified by considerable cloud cover and lingering
storms, multiple corridors of reinvigorating storms should
materialize this afternoon where more appreciable cloud
breaks/heating occur. Downbursts/locally damaging winds will be the
primary severe hazard, but this is currently expected to be on a
relatively isolated/episodic basis.

..Guyer/Weinman.. 04/04/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 111244
SWODY1
SPC AC 111242

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Valid 111300Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms producing hail and strong wind gusts are
possible across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon
and evening. More isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are
expected across parts of the central Rockies, central Plains, upper
Mississippi Valley, and portions of the California coast.

...Southern High Plains...

Thunderstorm development is likely by mid/late-afternoon across
southwest Texas and eastern New Mexico as increase forcing for
ascent overspreads modest but increasing low-level moisture.
Initially discrete cells are likely and will pose a threat for large
hail given adequate deep-layer wind shear /generally 30-40 kt/.
However, weak capping and strong ascent should promote upscale
growth by early evening into several linear clusters. As this
transition occurs, strong to severe wind gust potential will
increase and become the predominant hazard, though an embedded
circulation or two may occur with a tornado possible.

...Central Plains to the Upper Mississippi Valley...

Low-level warm air advection will likely become increasingly focused
through the day and into the overnight hours from the central Plains
into the upper Mississippi Valley. 850 mb winds are forecast to
steadily strengthen to 40-60 kt by this evening and will support
moistening in the lowest 1-2 km under a plume of 7-7.5 C/km
mid-level lapse rates. Forecast soundings suggest that this
environment will be weakly capped and should support isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon hours across the
central Plains before spreading/re-developing northeastward into the
upper Mississippi Valley late tonight. While deep-layer wind shear
will not be overly strong (around 30 kt), it should be sufficient
for a few organized cells capable of severe hail.

A more conditional supercell potential may materialize by mid/late
afternoon through early evening across portions of the middle/lower
Missouri Valley near/just south of the northward-shifting surface
warm front, which may augmented by residual cloud cover/weakening
storms across northeast Kansas/far southeast Nebraska in the
pre-dawn hours. Forecast soundings from this region suggest a weakly
capped, but moderately buoyant airmass, with notably strong low-level/deep-layer wind profiles that would conditionally support
supercells including some tornado risk.

...Central/northern Rockies...

A northeast-ejecting shortwave trough, along with steep mid-level
lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture, will likely support
additional thunderstorms across the central to northern Rockies this
afternoon as diurnal heating occurs. A combination of modest
deep-layer wind shear and well-mixed boundary layers will support
potential for strong to severe downburst winds.

...Northern/central California Coast...

A progressive upper wave will continue eastward and reach the
northern California coast tonight. As this occurs, ascent within
the left-exit region of an attendant upper jet, coupled with cool
mid-level temperatures near the center of the upper low, will
support isolated thunderstorms across northern/central California.
Winds within the lowest 1-2 km AGL should increase to around 40 kt
as the wave moves onshore, which will contribute to the potential
for convective downdrafts to produce a few locally damaging wind gusts.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 04/11/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 121256
SWODY1
SPC AC 121254

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Valid 121300Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today into
evening mainly across parts of Texas and perhaps other nearby parts
of the southern Plains. More isolated severe storms may occur across
portions of the Upper Great Lakes and northern Rockies.

...Texas/Southern Plains...

A rather complex scenario exists early today attributable to several
factors including an MCS that de-intensified/decayed generally near
I-35 in Texas overnight, with residual cloud cover and outflow
impacts. Potentially focused in vicinity of outflow, the passing
mid-level wave and persistent warm/moist advection may support storm persistence and redevelopment/intensification later today across
central Texas into parts of east Texas and possibly Louisiana within
a moderately unstable environment.

In the wake of the mid-level wave, mid-level height rises/subsidence
are otherwise anticipated coincident with the dryline from central
Kansas south-southwestward across western Oklahoma and
west/southwest Texas. The extent and likelihood of storm development
later today is highly uncertain, but if/where storms do form, the
environment would generally be supportive of supercells and related
hazards given ample buoyancy and moderate deep-layer shear.

...Minnesota/Wisconsin...

A surface low over the northern Plains will migrate eastward along
the U.S./Canadian border through the day, reaching northern
Minnesota by around peak heating. A narrow tongue of returning
moisture may support a corridor of sufficient ascent and buoyancy
for deep convection. A few surface-based supercells could occur
along the frontal zone where dewpoints may reach into the mid/upper
50s F. While this potential appears low/uncertain per latest
guidance, some tornado threat could materialize along the front.
Hail/wind will otherwise be possible regionally on an isolated basis.

...Northern Rockies...

Ahead of an approaching upper wave, mid-level moisture will support
another day of fairly modest surface-based buoyancy with persistent
30-40 knot flow within the CAPE-bearing layer. Combined with
somewhat deep boundary-layer mixing, this may support strong to
severe downburst winds with the more robust convective cells, mainly
this afternoon through early evening.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 04/12/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 151247
SWODY1
SPC AC 151246

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Valid 151300Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for large hail to very large
hail, severe gusts, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible
across portions of the southern Plains toward the Great Lakes this
afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough from the
eastern Dakotas south-southwestward into the southern Rockies. A
few disturbances will migrate eastward coincident with the trough
with the most notable being over the central High Plains this
morning. The aforementioned disturbance will move east reaching the
mid-upper MS Valley with the trailing southern extent of the wave
moving into the MO Ozarks and OK by daybreak Thursday. A weak
diffuse low will move from northern KS to the southwest Great Lakes
by late tonight. Farther east, an MCV near MO-IL will translate
east and become perhaps a focus for storm activity later this
afternoon across OH-PA. A rather complex forecast is apparent due
in large part to considerable convection and related outflow
permeating the warm sector overnight across much of the Slight-Risk area.

...Iowa into the mid MS Valley...

In the wake of showers/storms this morning from IA southward into
MO, a moist and weakly capped airmass will destabilize through early
afternoon. The eastward approach of the mid-level disturbance will
likely contribute towards scattered thunderstorms developing 19-21z
from near the weak low eastward along the composite outflow/frontal
zone into IL-WI and southward into MO within a weakly capped warm
sector. Forecast soundings show straight-line hodographs over IA
with sizable CAPE in the hail growth zone. The potential for
splitting supercells appears evident with the stronger storms
capable of very large hail and perhaps some tornado risk across IA
and northern MO.

...Ozarks into Oklahoma and north Texas...

Morning raobs showed steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7.5-8 deg C/km)
atop a seasonably very moist return-flow airmass. Models generally
show storm development near the dryline by mid afternoon with
initial development becoming supercellular. Large to very large
hail will be possible with the stronger updrafts. Residual outflow
from overnight convection moving into the Ozarks may play a role in
enhancing low-level shear later today. Forecast soundings show
somewhat limited low-level hodographs with a tendency for a
veer-back-veer signature. Additional storms will favor some
clustering and upscale growth with time due in part to the forecast
hodographs. Nonetheless, all hazards will be possible at least
through the early convective life cycle before the possibility for
wind damage and linear structures perhaps evolve during the evening.

...Southern Great Lakes into the Northeast...

The remnants of an overnight squall line are moving east across
NY-PA this morning with a trailing outflow boundary extending
westward into OH and northeast IN. Moist low levels and the
eastward advection of steeper mid-level lapse rates will act to
destabilize the southern Great Lakes into western PA through midday
and into the afternoon. Forcing for ascent and enhancement of flow
associated with the MCV will potentially focus thunderstorms and aid
in their organization potential beginning this afternoon.
Considerable uncertainty remains regarding this scenario and whether
a mesoscale corridor of higher tornado probabilities is needed
(i.e., northeast OH). Will defer to later outlooks to where perhaps
mesoscale corridors of greater wind/hail threat and an isolated risk
for a couple of tornadoes could develop.

..Smith/Dean.. 04/15/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 161236
SWODY1
SPC AC 161234

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NEW YORK INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon over New
York into southern Vermont with damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado
or two the primary threats. Large to very large hail is possible
with stronger storms over the northern half of Arkansas.

...Northeast southward into the central Appalachians and Cumberland Plateau...

Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough over the
mid/upper MS Valley moving east towards the Northeast. A belt of
strong west-southwesterly 500-mb flow (50-65 kt) will overspread
much of the Northeast today in conjunction with the
eastward-migrating shortwave trough. Visible-satellite imagery
shows scattered to broken cloud cover to the south of a west-east
oriented frontal zone extending east from a surface low analyzed
over Lake Huron. Heating of an adequately moist boundary layer
(surface dewpoints in the 56-62 deg F range) will result in weak to
locally moderate buoyancy by midday into the mid afternoon (500-1250
J/kg MLCAPE). Large-scale ascent associated with the approaching
disturbance and convergence in the vicinity of the frontal zone will
lead to scattered storm development this afternoon. Ample mid to
high-level flow will favor storm organization, including the
possibility for a few supercells and an organized band of storms. A
risk for large hail and a tornado could accompany the more intense
cells, whereas the wind risk will tend to focus with linear
structures that evolve. An isolated threat for wind damage and
perhaps hail will extend southward into PA/WV and the Cumberland
Plateau, where a few stronger storms may yield those hazards.

...Mid South...

Satellite imagery shows the trailing portion of the upper shortwave
trough over the western Great Lakes is moving east across OK this
morning. This upper feature and associated mid-level cold pocket
(-16 to -18 deg C at 500 mb) will move across the MO Ozarks and AR
this afternoon. A reservoir of lower 60s deg F surface dewpoints
and strong heating in wake of early day showers and isolated
thunderstorms will favor robust CAPE profiles and elongated mid to
upper portions of the hodograph. Latest guidance shows several
cells developing within a weakly capped airmass by mid afternoon.
The stronger storms will likely become supercells yielding a risk
for large to very large hail (1 to 3 inches in diameter). Modest
low-level flow will tend to limit low-level mesocyclone intensity
and the lessen the overall tornado risk. A couple of smaller
clusters may evolve during the early evening with an isolated wind
threat potentially ensuing before this activity weakens by mid
evening.

...Edwards Plateau into the TX Big Country and western north TX...

Moderate to strong potential instability is forecast to develop
beneath steep lapse rates, along and east of a dryline. Although
neutral to weak shortwave ridging is expected today, some of the
latest model guidance shows isolated to widely scattered storm
development by late afternoon on the northwestern rim of richer
low-level moisture arcing from the Edwards Plateau into western
north TX. Strong heating will likely erode appreciable remaining
convective inhibition by 20-22 UTC. Strong west-southwesterly
100-kt 200-mb flow will elongate hodographs amidst a moderately
buoyant airmass. Widely spaced/isolated supercells will mainly
yield a large hail threat late this afternoon into the early
evening.

..Smith/Dean.. 04/16/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 181233
SWODY1
SPC AC 181232

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable mainly of damaging
winds will be possible today across the upper Ohio Valley and
central Appalachians.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a large-scale upper trough
over the Upper Midwest into the south-central Plains. An elongated
mid-level vorticity lobe and associated speed max will quickly move
eastward across the Midwest today and reach the Lower Great Lakes
and upper OH Valley late tonight. Farther south, a belt of strong west-southwesterly flow associated with a subtropical jet will
reside over TX.

A cold front extending from a low near James Bay southward through
the Great Lakes and into TX will continue to push east and southeast
through the period. Convective outflow over the OH Valley to the
east of the front will eventually be overtaken by the front later
today as a band of showers/thunderstorms develops over the upper OH
Valley by early afternoon.

...OH Valley into the Appalachians...

Some heating combined with a gradually moistening airmass (55-60 deg
F surface dewpoints) will result in weak destabilization by midday
as convective development ensues near the preceding outflow/wind
shift and front. Ample mid to high-level flow will aid in some
potential for storm organization, mainly in the form of a few
stronger cells and linear bands. Widely scattered strong to severe
gusts capable of wind damage will likely be the primary hazard, but
an isolated risk for hail or a brief tornado is possible with the
strongest cells. This activity will likely weaken by early evening
as it encounters a slightly drier and less unstable airmass with east extent.

...Central Texas...

Scattered showers and elevated thunderstorms are expected throughout
much of the day as the cold front rapidly undercuts a moist and
unstable air mass. The 12 UTC Del Rio, TX raob shows an 8.2 deg
C/km 700-500 mb lapse rate. Forecast soundings show MUCAPE parcels
rooted in the 850-700 mb layer, with effective deep-layer shear of
50-60 kt. Although an isolated risk for large hail appears to be
the main hazard with the stronger cells, there has been some
indication that a localized risk for severe gusts could accompany
the strongest cores. For short-term details regarding a risk for
hail/wind with a few stronger thunderstorms this morning extending
from the Concho Valley east-northeast towards DFW, reference MCD #490.

..Smith/Dean.. 04/18/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 041254
SWODY1
SPC AC 041252

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
KANSAS ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging
wind are possible across portions of the Midwest this afternoon into
tonight. A conditional threat for severe storms with large to very
large hail extends into portions of the central/southern Plains.

...Synopsis...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a large upper low off the
central CA coast, with an extensive fetch of southwesterly flow
aloft from the base of this low through northern Mexico and the
Southwest States into the southern High Plains. A deep cyclone
exists over central Canada as well. Between these two primary
features, a low-amplitude shortwave trough is currently moving
southeastward across NE.

Several shortwave troughs are forecast to rotate around the Canadian
cyclone, contributing to some deepening and eastward progression. An
associated surface low, currently over northwestern Ontario, will
move eastward as well. The deepening of the upper trough across the
northern Plains and progression of the surface low will force a cold
front southward/southeastward across the Upper Midwest and Middle MO
Valley by this evening, and through the central Plains, and Lower MO
and Mid MS Valleys by early tomorrow. Increasing low-level moisture
is anticipated ahead of this cold front, supporting the potential
for thunderstorms as this front interacts with this moisture and
associated buoyancy.

...Eastern KS into Mid MS Valley and Lower MI...

Thunderstorm development is anticipated during the afternoon, both
along the front, which should extend through southern WI and
eastern/southern IA, and within the warm-air advection regime ahead
of the front. Thunderstorms along the front will initially be
displaced north of the better shear and buoyancy, so somewhat
transient updraft structures and/or frontal undercutting will likely
limit storm severity. Even so, high cloud bases and a deeply mixed
boundary layer could result in a few strong gusts. Later in the
evening, more storm development appears likely on the front as it
moves into eastern KS and northern/central MO. Here, stronger shear
and buoyancy should support more robust updrafts and a relatively
higher probability for severe storms. Large hail is the primary risk.

Any thunderstorms that develop within the warm-air advection regime
ahead of the front during the afternoon and early evening should
interact with greater buoyancy (particularly from northeast IL,
northern IL and southern Lower MI where less boundary-layer mixing
could result in slightly higher dewpoints) and moderate vertical
shear. A few stronger, more organized storms are possible in this
area, although weaker upper flow could limit discreteness and result
in a trend towards a more clustered storm mode.

...Central Kansas into Oklahoma and northern Texas...

A sharp dryline is expected to develop from central KS
south-southwestward into northwest TX. Given the veering surface
winds, convergence along the dryline will likely be modest
throughout much of the afternoon. However, some backing is possible
during the evening as a surface low moves eastward across southwest
KS towards northwest OK. Strong diurnal heating will likely erode
most convective inhibition by the early evening, while steep lapse
rates contribute to moderate buoyancy. These factors could be enough
to force isolated initiation on the dryline from central KS into
northwest TX. Upper-level flow will be strengthening across the
region throughout the period, and any storms that do form will have
ample deep-layer shear to support supercells. Large to very large
hail would be the primary risk early in the convective cycle, with
dry mid-levels also supporting strong downdrafts as storms begin to
weaken and collapse.

..Mosier/Dean.. 05/04/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 051253
SWODY1
SPC AC 051252

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
ARKANSAS AND EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms are possible Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday night from northeast Texas into western Tennessee, with the
main threat centered over Arkansas. The strongest storms will be
capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. More
isolated strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Northeast.

...Northeast TX into the Mid-South...

Regional radar imagery shows a cluster of showers and thunderstorms
moving across central/northeast AR. Outflow associated with this
cluster stretches from north of LIT northwestward between FSM and
FYV into northeast OK. Surface analysis also places a low over
western OK. A cold front extends east-northeastward from this low
through far northeast OK and southern MO, and a dryline extends
southwestward from the low through the Permian Basin. These
boundaries, particularly the cold front and outflow boundary, could
act as a focal points for redevelopment as the airmass across the
region destabilizes amid heating and low-level moisture advection
this afternoon.

A combination of afternoon temperatures in the low 80s, dewpoints in
the mid 60s, and steep mid-level lapse rates will result in moderate
buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 1500 to 2000 J/kg) within the warm
sector this afternoon. Convergence along the front will be modest
and large-scale height rises are anticipated. Some weak capping may
prevail as well, particularly if the current cloudiness persists.
These factors introduce notable uncertainty into the forecast,
particularly regarding overall storm coverage. Seemingly, these
factors should contribute to a widely scattered, but discrete, storm
mode. The placement and evolution of the outflow may become apparent
as heating begins, with observable trends in cloud cover possible as
well. These factors could potentially reveal a corridor of higher
storm coverage. However, confidence in the placement of such a
corridor is currently low, precluding the introduction of any higher probabilities.

That being said, the kinematic environment should be very supportive
of supercells this afternoon/evening, with strong upper flow
resulting in bulk shear around 60 kt. Any storms that do mature
should be severe and capable of all hazards. Large to very large
hail (i.e. 2"+) is possible early in each storm's convective cycle.
Tornadoes are also possible, particularly from central AR into
western TN where the low/mid-level flow will be strongest. A strong
tornado is possible with a sustained discrete supercell. Storms may
eventually grow upscale into clusters, at which point damaging winds
would become the primary severe risk.

...Lower Great Lakes into northern New England...

Early morning surface analysis placed a low over southeast Lower MI,
along a cold front that extends from central Quebec southwestward
through southern IL. This low is forecast to progress northeastward
along the St. Lawrence Valley vicinity as the cold front also
progresses eastward in response to an eastward shift of the parent
cyclone from northern Ontario into northern Quebec. Modest low-level
moisture will advect northeastward into the Lower Great Lakes and
Northeast ahead of this cold front, with low 50s dewpoints likely
reaching as far north as ME. This low-level moisture coupled with
afternoon temperatures in the 70s will support modest buoyancy,
despite poor lapse rates. Thunderstorms are anticipated along and
ahead of the eastward-progressing front as it moves into the
destabilized airmass from the Lower Great Lakes into northern ME.

Strong deep-layer vertical will be in place, supported by relatively
deep southwesterly flow, suggesting the potential for organized
storm structures. However, this flow will be largely parallel to the
boundary, with a bowing linear mode expected to be dominant (as
shown by much of the convection-allowing guidance). Damaging gusts
will be possible with the strongest storms, although transient
updraft strength should keep the overall coverage and intensity
modest. Isolated hail is possible with a few storms as well.
Predominantly linear mode should keep the tornado risk low, although
a low-probability threat still exists, particularly if a pocket of
strong buoyancy can develop across Upstate NY.

..Mosier/Dean.. 05/05/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 071251
SWODY1
SPC AC 071249

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH GEORGIA AND NORTHERN
FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE FLORDIA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds and a
couple tornadoes are possible today across southeast Alabama, and
portions of south Georgia and north Florida, including the
Panhandle. Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible in
parts of the Carolinas, as well as the lower Rio Grande Valley and
Deep South Texas.

...Southern AL/Southern GA/FL Panhandle into northern FL...

Regional radar imagery shows showers and thunderstorms ongoing from
far eastern LA northeastward into southern GA. These storms are
occurring along and ahead of a cold front that extends from a
surface low over northwest GA southwestward into the western Gulf.
The environment preceding this front is moist, modestly buoyant, and
strongly sheared (i.e. 50 to 70 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear). These
conditions are supporting occasional intensification of the updrafts
embedded within the predominately linear structures.

This trend is forecast to continue for at least the next few hours
before the stronger low-level flow (which currently extends from the
western FL Panhandle/southern AL through southern GA) gradually
shifts northeastward. As such, the greatest tornado potential will
exist during the first few hours of the forecast period. Otherwise,
damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard as storms progress
southeast through the central/western FL Panhandle and northern FL.

...Carolinas...

Buoyancy is expected to be lower here than areas farther southwest,
with poor lapse rates expected to limit instability to generally
less than 500 j/kg. The surface low over northwest GA is forecast to
shift northeastward throughout the day, with low to mid-level wind
fields strengthening at the same time. Ascent near the low and
associated front coupled with the modest buoyancy will result in
occasionally deeper convective elements along and ahead of the cold
front from late morning into afternoon. Robust deep-layer wind
fields across the region will support the potential for damaging
gusts with any deeper, more persistent updrafts.

...Lower Rio Grande Valley/South TX...

A few isolated thunderstorms have developed east of Del Rio where
steep mid-level lapse rates are supporting elevated buoyancy atop a
stable boundary layer (as observed on the 12Z DRT sounding). This
elevated buoyancy will likely persist throughout the day, combining
with strong deep-layer vertical shear (i.e. effective bulk shear
from 50 to 60 kt) to support the potential for supercell structures
capable of isolated large hail and locally damaging wind gusts.
Additionally, there is a low-probability chance for a few storms
farther south into the Lower RGV this evening, where the environment
remains supportive of large hail.

..Mosier/Dean.. 05/07/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 081230
SWODY1
SPC AC 081228

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0728 AM CDT Fri May 08 2026

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are
possible from southeast Kansas through much of central and eastern
Oklahoma into north Texas Friday afternoon into Friday night. More
sparse occurrences of large hail and damaging winds are possible
across the Ozarks, central and south TX, and the Gulf Coast states.

...Central Plains...

Morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over western KS
tracking southeastward. Full sunshine will lead to strong heating/destabilization ahead of the associated cold front over
eastern KS and much of OK. Dewpoints in the 50s, coupled with steep
low/mid level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of
1000-1500 J/kg and the development of scattered thunderstorms along
the front. These storms will track southeastward through the
evening across much of OK and into north TX. Forecast soundings
indicate favorable vertical shear profiles for supercell structures
capable of large hail.

Eventual upscale organization into linear/bowing structures will aid
in a risk of damaging winds as storms persist into the overnight
period across the ArkLaTex. While the overall severe threat should
diminish by this time, storms may occasionally result in damaging
wind gusts and hail.

...Central Gulf Coast...

Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning
along/north of a surface boundary that extends from southeast TX
along the Gulf Coast into north FL. Storms are expected to increase
in coverage during the afternoon along the front, with a few strong
to severe cells expected. Gusty winds are the primary concern.

..Hart/Wendt.. 05/08/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 131215
SWODY1
SPC AC 131214

Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0714 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL MT
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN UT...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible
across portions of the northern High Plains and Great Basin this
afternoon and evening. Other areas of isolated severe wind/hail
risk occur over the upper Ohio Valley and the Texas Panhandle.

...WV/PA/NY...

A large upper trough is deepening as it tracks southeastward across
the Great Lakes and Midwest into the Upper Ohio Valley. The
associated surface cold front is sweeping across OH, and will extend
from central NY into western PA and northern WV later today. Clouds
are currently prevalent across this region, but some
clearing/heating is expected as low-level moisture is transported
into the area. The result will be narrow corridor of sufficient
CAPE for thunderstorm development along the front from NY into WV.
Given the strength of the upper trough and winds aloft, there is
concern for a few severe storms capable of damaging winds and
perhaps hail...mainly in the 18-00z period.

...Great Basin...

A second strong and progressive upper trough has moved ashore over
OR/WA and will spread mid-level height falls and large scale ascent
across much of the Great Basin and Rockies today and tonight.
Low-level moisture is very sparse ahead of the system, but pockets
of strong heating from northern UT into eastern ID/western WY and
central MT will result in inverted-v profiles and sufficient CAPE
for isolated charge separation and robust updrafts. CAM solutions
suggest a risk of high-based fast-moving showers and occasional
thunderstorms affecting the region, with the risk of severe wind gusts.

...TX Panhandle...

A surface dryline will become established over the TX panhandle
later today, where temperatures will climb well into the 90s.
Forecast soundings show only modest CAPE and limited risk of
convective initiation over this area. However, any storm that can
persist in this environment would conditionally pose a threat of
damaging wind gusts and large hail. Will maintain the ongoing MRGL
risk for this conditional risk.

..Hart/Wendt.. 05/13/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 141202
SWODY1
SPC AC 141200

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with hail and severe wind gusts are possible from
Kansas/Missouri into west Texas.

...KS...

An upper ridge is centered over the central/southern Plains this
morning, but will break down through the forecast period as a series
of weak shortwave troughs emanate from the Rockies across the
central Plains. Meanwhile, strong southerly low-level winds will
develop across TX/OK/KS, aiding in northward return of moisture and considerable destabilization. The western periphery of the
returning moisture will be noted by a diffuse dryline from western
KS into western OK, where temperatures will climb into the mid/upper
90s today.

By late afternoon, forecast parameters will be quite favorable for
supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds across much of
central KS. However, weak large scale forcing and a formidable cap
to the east of the dryline significantly limits the confidence in
thunderstorm development/maintenance. Any storm that forms will
pose a severe risk, but coverage may be very isolated. Have shrunk
the risk areas, but will maintain the ongoing SLGT for now.

...West TX/OK...

The aforementioned dryline will extend southward across western OK
into west TX. Hot and dry conditions will develop to the west of
the dryline, where model consensus suggesting scattered high-based thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon. Forecast soundings
show near dry-adiabatic low and mid level lapse rates, and
sufficient CAPE for a risk of dry microbursts or occasional
multicell clusters capable of damaging winds. This activity is
likely to struggle as it spreads east of the dryline this evening
due to a strong capping inversion.

..Hart/Wendt.. 05/14/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 191300
SWODY1
SPC AC 191258

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MID-SOUTH...OHIO
VALLEY...AND LOWER GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible today from the
southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South, Ohio
Valley, and lower Great Lakes. Damaging winds and hail will be the
primary threats. A greater threat for large to very large hail
should exist across parts of west-central Texas.

...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley...

Numerous thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across
central/eastern OK into northwest AR and southern MO. Most of this
activity is occurring along and north of a southward-moving cold
front, and should therefore pose a limited severe risk in the short
term. Eventual regeneration along the cold front and/or
strengthening of ongoing activity should occur later today across TX
into the lower MS Valley/Mid-South. Mid-level flow is forecast to
remain fairly modest, and deep-layer shear for most areas will tend
to be marginal. Still, filtered daytime heating of a moist low-level
airmass will support moderate to strong instability along/ahead of
the front by early afternoon. Scattered severe/damaging winds should
be the main threat with loosely organized clusters and bowing line
segments. This wind threat may continue to the TX/LA Coast this evening/overnight. Some potential for supercells should also exist
across parts of west-central TX and vicinity, where steeper
mid-level lapse rates and greater instability is forecast to be in
place. Large hail appears possible with any supercells that can be
sustained, and isolated 2+ inch diameter hail may occur. With time
this evening, this convection may also grow upscale into a bowing
cluster and pose a greater severe wind risk.

...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast...

Modestly enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow will be present today
over the OH Valley and lower Great Lakes regions, as a positively
tilted mid/upper-level trough moves from the Upper Midwest into
eastern Canada. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop
along/ahead of a surface cold front this afternoon as the
pre-frontal airmass gradually destabilizes. Stronger instability
should be present this afternoon across the OH Valley, but greater
deep-layer shear may tend to remain mostly displaced farther north.
Even so, some thunderstorm organization should occur, with
multicells and bowing line segments possible. Scattered
severe/damaging winds should be the main threat, although isolated
hail could occur with the strongest cores. This convection should
spread into the lower Great Lakes by mid to late evening, before
eventually weakening across the Northeast late tonight. A separate
area of convection may develop this afternoon across parts of New
England, and also pose a threat for mainly occasional damaging winds.

..Gleason/Marsh.. 05/19/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 201232
SWODY1
SPC AC 201230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Valid 201300Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...AND PARTS OF WEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe/damaging winds and isolated hail will be possible
with thunderstorms from the central Appalachians into the
Mid-Atlantic and southern New England this afternoon and evening.
Severe thunderstorms with large hail and isolated severe gusts may
also occur today across parts of west/south-central Texas.

...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England...

On the southern fringe of upper troughing over eastern Canada and
the Great Lakes, a weak/convectively augmented mid-level shortwave
trough will progress northeastward across the OH Valley and central Appalachians through the day, eventually reaching the Mid-Atlantic
tonight. Robust daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level
airmass (surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 60s) ahead of
a surface cold front will aid in the development of moderate
instability by early afternoon. Ongoing convection across OH/KY this
morning may eventually strengthen as it encounters this
destabilizing airmass, and additional thunderstorms are expected to
develop along/near the cold front by mid afternoon from the central Appalachians into portions of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England.

Stronger flow aloft will tend to lag/remain north of the cold front,
but modest enhancement to the west-southwesterly mid-level flow
along/near the front should support around 20-30 kt of deep-layer
shear. This will be sufficient for some updraft organization with
mainly multicells expected, although marginal supercell structures
may occur. Low-level lapse rates are expected to become quite steep
through the day, evidenced by a general lack of clouds on recent
visible satellite imagery from central/eastern WV into the
Mid-Atlantic. This will likely aid efficient downward momentum
transfer in convective downdrafts, with scattered severe/damaging
winds possible as multiple clusters spread east-northeastward
through the afternoon/evening. Isolated hail may also occur with the
stronger cores. A Slight Risk for severe/damaging winds has been
introduced from parts of WV to southern New England given increased
confidence in multiple clusters traversing a narrow zone along/ahead
of the front.

...Eastern New Mexico into West/South-Central Texas...

A squall line has generally moved offshore the lower/middle TX Coast
this morning. In its wake, a post-frontal low-level upslope flow
regime will persist today across west TX into eastern NM. Embedded
within large-scale upper troughing over the Great Basin/Southwest, a low-amplitude shortwave trough over northern Mexico this morning
will move northeastward across the southern High Plains by this
afternoon. A relatively early start to convective development
appears probable across the higher terrain of far west TX, possibly
as early as 17-19Z. With a combination of moderate instability and
40-50 kt of deep-layer shear forecast, supercells with mainly a
large hail threat should be the primary mode initially. Additional
robust thunderstorms may form later in the afternoon/early evening
across a broader portion of the southern High Plains, and also pose
a threat for large hail and isolated severe winds. Some potential
for clustering this evening remains apparent into south-central TX,
and supercells from north-central Mexico could also move into this
region this evening/overnight.

..Gleason/Marsh.. 05/20/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 211251
SWODY1
SPC AC 211250

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Valid 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and isolated severe
gusts should occur across parts of the central/southern High Plains
this afternoon and evening. A tornado or two may also occur.

...Central/Southern High Plains into South Texas...

Within large-scale upper troughing over the northern Rockies/Great
Basin, an embedded mid-level shortwave trough and associated jet
will translate southeastward across the central Rockies and adjacent
High Plains this afternoon and evening. Forcing for ascent preceding
this feature will encourage initial isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development across the higher terrain of central CO by
mid afternoon. A weak southern-stream perturbation should also
foster scattered convection farther south across the southern High
Plains as well.

The airmass across the central/southern High Plains should gradually destabilize today, as modest moisture in a persistent low-level
upslope flow regime continues streaming northwestward across these
regions beneath steepened mid-level lapse rates. Weak to moderate
instability is forecast to be in place by mid afternoon, with
sufficient deep-layer shear for a mix of multicells and supercells.
Initial development should pose a threat for large hail, before
eventual clustering this evening potentially results in a greater
threat for severe winds. The primary change with this update was to
expand the Marginal Risk across parts of west into south TX, where
any convection which develops eastward may pose an isolated
hail/wind threat this afternoon through tonight.

...Southern Virginia into North Carolina...

Daytime heating south of a cold front should help steepen low-level
lapse rates across parts of southern VA into NC by this afternoon.
While both mid-level flow and lapse rates are expected to remain
fairly modest across this area, an isolated threat for damaging
winds may exist with loosely organized clusters that can develop
along the higher terrain and/or sagging cold front this afternoon.

...Coastal Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley...

Another expansive MCS has moved offshore from the lower TX Coast
this morning. Generally weak offshore surface flow continues across
the middle/upper TX Coast into southern LA. Eventually, a more
southerly component to the low-level winds may encourage greater
low-level moisture to advance inland later today across parts of the
lower MS Valley. While a couple of stronger thunderstorms with gusty
winds appear possible, modest mid-level flow and poor lapse rates
aloft should tend to limit the overall severe threat.

..Gleason/Marsh.. 05/21/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 221250
SWODY1
SPC AC 221249

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large to very large hail and severe gusts are
possible late this afternoon into the evening in parts of the
southern High Plains.

...Southern High Plains...

Modest cyclonic mid-level flow will extend from the Interior West
through the base of the trough over the south-central U.S.
Water-vapor imagery shows a weak disturbance migrating east across
the Permian Basin this morning. A seasonably moist airmass
maintained via southeasterly low-level flow will heat and become
moderately to strongly unstable by mid afternoon.

Model forecast soundings show relatively cool 500-mb temperatures
(near -14 deg C) with steep low- to mid-level lapse rates later this
afternoon. Strong heating will locally erode appreciable remaining
convective inhibition and widely scattered thunderstorms will likely
develop by late afternoon. Although westerly flow will likely
remain modest (20 kt from 600 to 200 mb), strongly veering flow will
result in 25-30 kt effective shear, supporting supercells initially.
Large to very large hail will be possible with the more intense
updrafts. Increasing storm coverage during the evening will tend to
promote some upscale growth into a linear cluster with severe gusts
becoming more prevalent. The risk for severe gusts (60-80 mph) may
focus during the 00-03 UTC period before a gradual waning in
coverage/intensity by late evening.

...Central Gulf Coast States/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys...

Water-vapor imagery shows a disturbance moving northeastward across
the ArkLaMiss this morning and moving towards western portions of
TN/KY and the lower OH Valley. Surface analysis indicates a moist
airmass featuring dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s over TN to
the lower 70s over the central Gulf Coast. Despite widespread cloud
cover, some thinning of the cloud shield is expected as temperatures
slowly warm through the early afternoon. Models generally show weak
buoyancy (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and skinny CAPE profiles and
tempered lapse rates (reference the Nashville and Birmingham 12 UTC
raobs). However, models show some enhancement/strengthening of
925-500 mb flow moving northeastward across MS/AL into TN through
the mid-late afternoon. As a result, some enlargement of hodographs
will likely occur during the diurnal heating cycle and a few weak
supercell structures will probably develop. Yet, the ongoing
thunderstorm band over eastern MS may be ill timed as it moves
northeastward across western/northern AL through midday.
Nonetheless, an isolated risk for a tornado seems possible over much
of this general region. A risk for isolated damaging gusts may also
accompany some of the stronger thunderstorms before this activity
wanes by the early evening.

...Mid Missouri Valley...

An upper-level trough and an associated mid-level jet streak will
move northeastward today across the north-central U.S. At the
surface, an axis of low-level moisture will be in place from eastern
Kansas northward into eastern Nebraska. Ahead of the trough,
scattered thunderstorms will develop in the afternoon along and near
the moist axis. Surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will
contribute to weak instability with MLCAPE likely peaking in the 500
to 1000 J/kg range across eastern Nebraska. RAP forecast soundings
near Omaha suggest that 0-6 km shear will reach 35 knots as the
trough approaches this afternoon, which would support the
development of low-topped supercells capable of isolated severe wind
gusts and hail. The severe threat is expected to persist into the
early evening.

..Smith/Weinman.. 05/22/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 261244
SWODY1
SPC AC 261243

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
southwest into south-central Texas. Large hail, severe wind gusts,
and a couple tornadoes are possible through this evening.

...Southwest into South-Central Texas...

Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a weak mid-level trough over
southern NM and Far West TX. This upper feature will slowly migrate
east into the Permian Basin and Concho Valley later this
afternoon/evening. Early morning showers/thunderstorms and their
associated outflow and relatively cool air have overspread the
Permian Basin. To the southeast of the rain-cooled airmass, the 12
UTC Del Rio, TX raob sampled moderately steep 700-500 mb lapse rates
(7.3 deg C/km) and 2200 J/kg MUCAPE. A weak area of low pressure
near the Big Bend will maintain a moist, easterly low-level fetch
into the Edwards Plateau. Heating via cloud breaks and surface
dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F will contribute to
1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon.

Strong veering of the low-level wind profile with 20-25 kt westerly
500-mb flow will support organized storms, including supercells with
the stronger updrafts. Some tornado threat may evolve with one or
two more intense supercells but this risk will largely be dependent
on mesoscale factors. Clusters of storms are eventually expected
with the severe risk continuing into the evening with the stronger
storms capable of wind/hail.

...Kentucky...

A seasonably moisture-rich airmass is located along and south of a
residual frontal zone draped from the confluence of the OH-MS Rivers east-northeast across the OH Valley. Despite considerable cloud
cover, some heating will result in weak instability. Widely
scattered to scattered thunderstorms coincident with peak heating
are forecast. Modest southwesterly mid-level flow (20-30 kt) may
act to aid in some organization of cells. An isolated risk for
damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado are possible with this activity.

...Upper Midwest...

A weak MCV was noted over the Mid MO Valley this morning embedded
within a weak westerly mid-level flow regime to the north of a
flattened mid-level anticyclone. In the low levels, a
quasi-stationary boundary will be draped generally west to east
across the region. South of this boundary, surface dewpoints in the
60s F will contribute to pockets of moderate instability by
afternoon. Model guidance indicates scattered storm coverage later
this afternoon in the wake of morning showers/storms over parts of
this region. Isolated wind/hail will be the primary hazards with
the stronger storms before this activity weakens by early evening.

...Northern Rockies...

A belt of south-southeasterly 20-30 kt mid-level flow will reside in
between a mid-level cyclone over northern CA and an anticyclone over
the Midwest. A lee trough over the northern High Plains will focus thunderstorm development later today as the boundary layer
destabilizes. Low-level lapse rates will be very steep, which will
contribute to a potential for severe wind gusts. Hail will also be
possible, mainly over western Montana where instability is forecast
to be the strongest.

..Smith/Weinman.. 05/26/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 271246
SWODY1
SPC AC 271245

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Valid 271300Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
Mid-Atlantic states this afternoon into the early evening. Strong
to severe gusts (50-65 mph) capable of wind damage will be the
primary hazard with the stronger thunderstorms.

...Mid-Atlantic/Ohio Valley...

An upper-level trough over the Great Lakes will move southeast
towards the upper OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic states during the period.
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a lead disturbance over
southern OH moving east across the central Appalachians. In the low
levels, an analyzed frontal zone has been modulated by ongoing showers/thunderstorms and it will move southeast today. A moist
airmass ahead of the front, featuring dewpoints in the upper 60s to
lower 70s F, will gradually destabilize through early afternoon. East-southeastward moving clusters are forecast to evolve by later
this afternoon. Scattered strong to severe gusts (50-65 mph)
capable of wind damage will be the primary risk with the stronger thunderstorms, although marginally severe hail may accompany the
stronger cores this afternoon.

...Southern ID into eastern OR...

A belt of strong easterly mid-level flow will remain over southwest
ID into southeast OR to the north of a stationary, deep-layer
cyclone over the Sierra Nevada. Heating of an adequately moist
boundary layer will steepen low-level lapse rates by early
afternoon. Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast
to develop this afternoon. Forecast hodographs show 20-45 kt
700-500 mb flow (strongest over southeast OR) and mean storm motions
35-45 kt. These flow fields coupled with evaporatively cooled
downdrafts will likely result in a mix of quickly moving cells and smaller-scale linear clusters. This activity will potentially be
capable of severe gusts (60-75 mph) before diminishing by mid-late evening.

...Western Great Lakes...

Northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across the western
Great Lakes today, as a shortwave trough moves southeastward across
the region. At the surface, a pocket of maximized low-level
moisture will be located over Wisconsin, where MLCAPE is expected to
peak in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. An isolated risk for large
hail/damaging gusts are possible with the stronger thunderstorms.

...Southern Texas Panhandle/West Texas/Far Western Oklahoma...

Somewhat displaced from an expansive overnight MCS along the TX
coast, an airmass featuring upper 50s to lower 60s F dewpoints will
destabilize beneath a weak mid- to upper-level trough. Widely
scattered to scattered storms are forecast to develop by late
afternoon and aggregate into small clusters this evening. Isolated
large hail/severe gusts are the primary severe hazards.

..Smith/Weinman.. 05/27/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 281254
SWODY1
SPC AC 281253

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN IDAHO
INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over western Idaho and
east of the Cascades in Washington and Oregon. Severe gusts (60-85
mph), large hail, and perhaps a tornado are the forecast hazards
this afternoon through the late evening.

...Columbia Basin vicinity into ID/northern NV...

A mid- to upper-level low over the Sierra Nevada will move little
during the period. Water-vapor imagery this morning indicates a
disturbance over NV will move north and northwestward through
eastern NV into eastern OR by early evening. In the low levels, an
area of low pressure is forecast to develop by late afternoon and
migrate from the ID/OR border into the Columbia Basin.

A plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates arc around the northern
periphery of the western U.S. low and extend from the Snake Valley
westward into OR/WA. As heating of a seasonably moist airmass
occurs, initial thunderstorm activity will gradually shift from
south to north from northern NV/southern ID and southern OR. Model
forecast soundings show steep low to mid tropospheric lapse rates
favorable for evaporative cooling and the development of strong to
severe downdrafts. Slightly greater buoyancy is shown in model
guidance farther north in northern OR into western ID (1500 J/kg
MLCAPE). As storms move into this region during the late afternoon
to evening timeframe, it is possible a more extensive threat for
severe gusts develops. Regardless, severe outflow both with the
stronger cores and linearly oriented clusters appear to be the main
hazard. Large hail may accompany the stronger cells. A continued
threat for scattered severe gusts may occur into the late evening as
this activity shifts northward into interior portions of WA.

...East-central Colorado...

A mid-level trough will move northward across the central Plains
today. At the surface, upslope east-southeasterly flow will be in
place across eastern Colorado. Along the Front Range, the Denver
cyclone is expected to develop by afternoon. Topographic lift and
increasing low-level convergence will result in scattered
thunderstorm development from the Palmer Divide northward into
north-central Colorado. Forecast soundings along this corridor by
late afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 20 to 30 knot range with
700-500 mb lapse rates around 8 C/km. This should support a hail
threat with the stronger cells.

..Smith/Weinman.. 05/28/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 291242
SWODY1
SPC AC 291241

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Valid 291300Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEST TEXAS
INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms capable of sporadic large hail and
scattered severe winds are expected this afternoon and evening
across portions of western Texas. More isolated severe thunderstorms
are likely across parts of the central High Plains, southern Utah,
and the northern Rockies.

...Southern Plains and central High Plains...

Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level low migrating eastward across
the Mojave Desert towards the southern Great Basin. A 90-kt 250-mb sub-tropical jet over Baja and Sonora Mexico will progress eastward
into the southern High Plains by this afternoon. The nose of this
speed max will overspread a moist sector east of a dryline where
severe thunderstorm development is forecast later this
afternoon/evening. Farther north, a modestly deepening lee trough
will focus storm initiation over the central High Plains.

Despite some mid and high-level clouds, model guidance shows strong
heating this afternoon and erosion of appreciable convective
inhibition by mid afternoon. A mid-level disturbance implied in
satellite imagery this morning over central NM will move northeast
into western KS and the TX Panhandle by early evening. Scattered
thunderstorms are forecast to develop near the dryline/lee trough.
Forecast hodographs show some elongation across west TX due to the
nose the upper speed max. Have included 15-percent hail
probabilities where supercell development appears greatest [due in
part to more favorable hodographs and within the northern rim of
richer moisture sampled by the 12 UTC Del Rio, TX raob (17.3 g/kg
mean mixing ratio)]. Large hail (1.5 to 2.5 inches in diameter)
will be possible with the supercells. Severe gusts are forecast to
become more prevalent during the evening as mergers and outflow
consolidate into a few linear clusters. Severe gusts of 60-80 mph
are possible as this activity shifts eastward into the Low Rolling
Plains and southwest OK during the evening.

Through the late evening, isentropic ascent near the terminus of the
nocturnal jet may support elevated, loosely organized convection
across portions of northwest OK and western KS. Isolated hail/wind
may accompany the stronger storms over the central High Plains into
central OK where storm coverage will probably remain isolated.

...Northern Rockies/Montana...

Diurnally-driven orographic ascent within the terrain of northern ID
and southwest MT will likely support isolated thunderstorm
development by late afternoon given weak capping and northward
advection of steep mid-level lapse rates. Residual low-level
moisture across north-central MT (dewpoints in the upper 40s to low
50s) coupled with 30-35 knot southerly mid-level flow will likely
promote intensification and some degree of organization (possibly
into transient supercells and/or organized bands) through the early
evening hours. Sporadic large hail and severe gusts appear possible
with the most intense convection as it spreads north towards the
Canadian border.

...Southern Utah...

A few high-based storms developing within a deeply mixed boundary
layer (inverted-V profile) may yield an isolated risk for severe
gusts (60-70 mph).

..Smith/Kerr.. 05/29/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 300551
SWODY1
SPC AC 300549

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected on
this afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains
into central Kansas and north-central Oklahoma. Isolated severe
gusts and hail will also be possible in the northern High Plains,
and across parts of western Texas.

...Synopsis...
Latest GOES imagery depicts a pronounced mid-level low over southern
UT with a modest (25-35 knot) subtropical jet emanating from
northern Mexico into the southern Plains. Several shortwave
vorticity maximum are noted along the MS River Valley and across the
Southeast within a broad upper-level deformation zone. Over the next
12-24 hours, the low over southern UT will drift northeast, likely overspreading the central High Plains by late afternoon/early
evening. As this occurs, more focused surface pressure falls and lee
cyclone development will become apparent across eastern WY/CO and
into portions of western KS/OK and the TX Panhandle.

00 UTC RAOBs across the central to southern Rockies sampled very
steep (8-9 C/km) lapse rates, which should advect eastward in the
wake of ongoing convection through this afternoon given the
southwesterly mid-level flow regime. Additionally, late-evening
surface observations across the central CONUS reveal an expansive
reservoir of rich low-level moisture with dewpoints in the upper 60s
to mid 70s spanning from central OK into the Southeast. This
moisture will advect west/northwest through the morning and
afternoon hours in response to the surface pressure
falls/cyclogenesis over the central High Plains.

The combination of destabilizing thermal profiles aloft and
increasing low-level moisture content will promote a broad swath of
moderate to very high buoyancy from the central High Plains
southward into the southern Plains. Thunderstorm development within
this unstable air mass appears likely as ascent increases through
the day along the surface trough/sharpening dryline.

...Central High Plains...

35-45 knot southerly mid-level flow across the central High Plains
will yield elongated hodographs with deep-layer shear vectors
oriented off the dryline/surface trough. This will result in
high-based supercell development initially across northeast
CO/western NE into western SD with an attendant threat for large
hail and strong outflow winds. With time, upscale growth is
anticipated as convection spreads north/northeast across NE and SD
with an increasing threat for severe winds.

...Central/Southern Plains...

Most guidance depicts a sharpening dryline across western/central
KS, western OK, and into western TX through the afternoon hours.
More focused forcing for ascent across central KS to northern OK
ahead of a subtle low-amplitude upper wave will likely favor
scattered thunderstorm coverage with more isolated thunderstorms
likely with southward extent into western TX. Although ample
buoyancy will be in place (MLCAPE values between 3500-4500 J/kg),
the primary limiting factor across the central/southern Plains will
be modest deep-layer wind shear. Consensus among forecast guidance
suggests effective bulk shear values on the order of 25-35 knots are
likely, which will promote a combination of supercells and
multicells. However, the steep lapse-rate environment coupled with
sufficient deep-layer wind shear will support the potential for
large hail along with severe wind gusts.

A focused corridor for a tornado threat may emerge across northern
OK to central KS where southeasterly low-level flow should support
effective SRH on the order of 150-200 m2/s2. However, the tornado
threat will likely be highly conditional on achieving a sustained
supercell with balanced inflow/outflow. Given the increased
convective signal across northern OK/KS, 15% hail/wind
probabilities, as well as 2% tornado probabilities, have been introduced.

...Southwest Missouri into central Arkansas...

A zone of isentropic ascent near 850 mb will become established
across the Ozark Plateau by late afternoon. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are likely within this corridor given MUCAPE values
upwards of 3000 J/kg, and sufficient deep-layer wind shear should be
in place for a few organized cells capable of large hail and perhaps strong/severe downburst winds.

..Moore/Marsh.. 05/30/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 311222
SWODY1
SPC AC 311220

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0720 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Valid 311300Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING FROM
EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms are possible this evening from eastern Kansas
into western Missouri.

...KS/MO...

Moderately strong southwesterly flow aloft extends from the Four
Corners region into the Midwest today. Water vapor imagery suggests
several weak shortwave troughs embedded in the flow to aid in
large-scale ascent and the potential for thunderstorm development
later today. Thunderstorms are ongoing this morning over eastern
KS/western MO. These storms will reinforce a surface boundary
across southeast KS/southwest MO. The boundary will lift northward
this afternoon with the potential for isolated thunderstorms along
and south of it. Very warm and humid conditions will prevail across
southeast KS/southern MO with MLCAPE values of 3000-4000 J/kg, along
with steep low and mid-level lapse rates.

While these early storms will pose an isolated severe threat, more
organized convection is forecast to form by early evening over
eastern KS and track along the boundary into MO. Forecast soundings
suggest sufficient vertical shear to support supercells and bowing
structures capable of large hail and damaging winds, or even a
tornado. A small area of SLGT risk has been added to address this scenario.

...Elsewhere...

Widely scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and
hail will be possible this afternoon and early evening over parts of
AR, and southwest TX. Isolated occurrences of large hail are also
possible today from parts of the Dakotas into NE/IA.

..Hart/Kerr.. 05/31/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 011213
SWODY1
SPC AC 011211

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0711 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Valid 011300Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND PARTS OF THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected
Monday afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains.
Scattered to numerous strong to severe wind gusts will also be
possible from the Ozarks southeastward into parts of the Southeast.

...Southeast States...

An occasionally severe MCS is ongoing this morning south of STL.
This activity may persist through much of the day, tracking
southeastward along the low-level moisture/instability gradient into
western KY/middle TN and eventually north GA. Moderate CAPE values,
30+ knots of mid-level steering flow, and mesoscale organization of
the MCS will pose a risk of strong/damaging winds along this corridor.

Along the western flank of this MCS, a hot/humid air mass will
develop from AR into parts of TN/MS/AL with temperatures in the 90s
and dewpoints in the 70s. This will yield afternoon MLCAPE values
approaching 4000 J/kg. The consensus of model guidance suggests
scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon, with outflows
congealing and spreading south/southwestward though a steep
lapse-rate environment. The result will be the potential for rather
widespread strong/severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and
some hail. These storms may spread as far south as central MS/AL
during the evening before weakening.

...High Plains...

Easterly low-level winds are present this morning over much of
eastern CO/western KS. This will maintain an influx of moisture and
aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms over the foothills
of central CO by mid-afternoon. Sufficient deep-layer shear will
pose a risk of supercells capable of large/very large hail. As the
storms move/develop eastward into western KS this evening, supercell
structures may persist, but upscale growth into bowing clusters is
also expected. This will increase the risk of severe wind gusts as
well. The easterly low-level jet will also strengthen considerably
this evening across the region, enhancing low-level shear and
helicity, but in a region with high LCLs and dewpoints only around 50F.

Widely scattered severe storms are also expected to develop over
southeast WY, spreading eastward into the NE panhandle and southwest
SD with a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts.

..Hart/Kerr.. 06/01/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 021151
SWODY1
SPC AC 021149

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026

Valid 021300Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts and potentially a
couple of tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening in parts
of the northern Plains. Strong wind gusts and marginal hail will
also be possible in parts of the southern and central High Plains. A
few severe wind gusts may also occur from southern Georgia into
northern and eastern Florida.

...Northern Plains...

The upper low that has affected the western U.S. for the last
several days has lifted into Alberta, with broad 40-60 knot
southwesterly mid-level flow across much of the northern Plains. A
cold front currently extends from eastern WY into western ND, which
will provide the primary focus for thunderstorm development later
this afternoon. Forecast soundings across this area show strong
deep-layer shear, steep lapse rates, and MLCAPE values around 2500
J/kg. This suggests the potential for several supercells storms
capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two.

Numerous thunderstorms over western KS this morning have overturned
most of this air mass, and will likely suppress strong storms
through the evening. However, ample moisture has surged westward
into the foothills of CO where isolated strong storms may occur.

...Southeast TX...

An outflow boundary associated with convective clusters over OK has
surged southward into the Red River valley. A hot and humid air
mass over southeast TX will be supportive of re-development of
afternoon thunderstorms along this outflow boundary. Storms will
likely track southward through the early evening, posing a risk of
locally damaging wind gusts.

...Southwest TX/Southeast NM...

Southeasterly low-level winds are present this morning over much of
southwest TX and southeast NM, maintaining 50s dewpoints in the
region and encouraging thunderstorms later today over the terrain.
The storms that form will spread northeastward for a few hours,
posing a risk of locally damaging wind gusts.

...FL/GA...

An upper trough will track southward across the eastern states
today. A moist and moderately unstable airmass will develop over
much of FL and southern GA, with isolated afternoon thunderstorm
development expected. The strongest cells may produce
gusty/damaging winds.

..Hart/Kerr.. 06/02/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 031153
SWODY1
SPC AC 031151

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts, and a few
tornadoes will be possible this afternoon and evening in parts of
the northern Plains into upper Mississippi Valley. More sporadic
occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts appear possible
across parts of the central High Plains and southwest Texas into
southern New Mexico.

...Northern Plains...

Morning water vapor loop shows an upper low over southern Alberta,
with several shortwave troughs embedded in the southwesterly flow
over MT/WY/ID. At the surface, the primary cold front will move
eastward into the central Dakotas and northwest NE by afternoon,
providing the focus for scattered thunderstorm development.

A broad cluster of weakening thunderstorms is occurring this morning
near the NE/SD border. This activity has resulted in an outflow
boundary that will lift northward into SD this afternoon. Dewpoints
in the upper 60s and MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg are expected in the
region along/north of the outflow boundary, with forecast soundings
showing favorable deep-layer shear for supercell storms. These
storms will persist through the evening, affecting eastern SD,
southeast ND, and western MN. Large hail is the primary risk early,
with a transition to more linear structures during the evening and
an attendant damaging wind risk. Recent model guidance suggests a
notable low-level jet in this region during the late
afternoon/evening, supportive of some risk of maintaining discrete
modes and increasing the risk of a few tornadoes.

...Elsewhere...

Farther south, widely scattered strong storms are expected later
today across the central High Plains, and southwest TX/southern NM.
Locally damaging wind gusts are the main risk.

..Hart/Kerr.. 06/03/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 041200
SWODY1
SPC AC 041158

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0658 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2026

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS....

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail and
damaging winds are possible today from parts of the northern High
Plains across northern Nebraska and much of South Dakota. More
isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds appear
possible farther south across portions of the central Plains.

...MT/Dakotas/MN...

Fast zonal flow is present today over the northern U.S, with a
shortwave trough now over western MT approaching the northern High
Plains. Easterly low-level winds have transported 50s dewpoints
westward into southeast MT/northeast WY, where daytime heating and
increasing large-scale ascent will lead to scattered afternoon
thunderstorms. Coverage of storms is not expected to be very high,
but those cells that can develop will likely be supercells capable
of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Storms will spread into the
central Dakotas through the evening with a continued severe threat.

Farther east, a surface boundary is forecast to extend from
south-central SD into central MN. Strong heating in this corridor
will promote scattered thunderstorms after 20z. Forecast soundings
suggest an environment favorable for hail and damaging winds in the
strongest cells.

...KS/NE/IA...

A weak upper trough has emerged from the central/southern High
Plains overnight and is now moving across western KS. Radar loops
show an MCV near Hays KS that will track into southeast NE and
western IA later today. A combination of low-level convergence,
daytime heating, and the affects of the MCV will lead to scattered
afternoon thunderstorms from northeast KS into IA. CAPE values of
2000-3000 J/kg are expected, along with sufficient deep-layer shear
for multicell or perhaps supercell storm structures. The potential
exists for hail and damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells this
evening. An upgrade to SLGT was considered, but the shield of
clouds/precip in vicinity of the MCV limits confidence in heating
and the area of greatest concern at this time.

..Hart/Kerr.. 06/04/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 051201
SWODY1
SPC AC 051200

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM NEBRASKA/KANSAS INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected to
develop late this afternoon and evening from parts of the central
Plains into the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. Isolated
severe wind gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of the
upper Mississippi Valley.

...NE to IA...

A large upper ridge is present today across the southern U.S., with
stronger westerlies over the northern tier of states. One shortwave
trough is noted over SD tracking east-southeastward. This feature
will provide large-scale ascent to parts of the Midwest states
today, leading to scattered clusters of thunderstorms. One area of
expected convective initiation will be late this afternoon along a
retreating surface boundary extending from south-central NE into
southern IA. Ample low-level moisture will reside in the frontal
zone with dewpoints in the low 70s and MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg.
Activity should develop around 00z along the boundary and track
slowly eastward. Sufficient deep-layer shear suggests a risk of
supercells capable of large hail. Low-level winds are not expected
to be particularly strong, limiting a more robust tornado risk.
Activity will likely congeal and track eastward across southern
IA/northern MO and eventually northern IL through the evening with a hail/damaging wind risk.

...Northern IL to Lower MI...

A large decaying MCS is moving across northern MO this morning.
While this activity will likely remain non-severe through the
morning, potential for re-intensification exists this afternoon as
activity moves into northern IN and southern lower MI. If
sufficient daytime heating can occur, steep lapse rates and
mesoscale organization of the MCS could result in sporadic damaging winds.

...MI/WI...

A broad area of 60s dewpoints and broken cloud cover will lead to
moderate CAPE values this afternoon from southern MN into much of
WI. As the aforementioned shortwave trough approaches this
afternoon, cooling aloft and strengthening wind fields will promote
organized structures with any convection that can form. Model
guidance varies considerably on the cover of storms in this area,
but a conditional risk of large hail and damaging winds is present.
Will maintain only MRGL risk for this area for now, but an upgrade
to SLGT could be needed today if later model guidance indicates
greater coverage of afternoon/evening storms.

..Hart/Wendt.. 06/05/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 061201
SWODY1
SPC AC 061200

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM INDIANA INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...AND OVER PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail are
expected to develop later today from parts of the lower Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley into southern New England. Large hail and severe
wind gusts are also expected in the northern High Plains and
southern Plains.

...Indiana to Southern New England...

Morning water vapor loop shows a deepening upper trough over the
Great Lakes region. This trough and an associated mid-level speed
max will spread across the upper Ohio Valley into New England this
afternoon and tonight. Strengthening large-scale ascent ahead of
the trough has led to multiple clusters of ongoing thunderstorms
from eastern IL into parts of OH/PA/NY. One or more of these
clusters, along with new development by early afternoon, is expected
to intensify and spread across the SLGT risk region. Forecast
soundings suggest sufficient CAPE and low-level lapse rates to
support a risk of damaging wind gusts with this activity. Overnight
CAM solutions continue to vary on the likely corridor of greatest
concern. However, there is the potential for a rather widespread
damaging wind event across parts of PA/NY/NJ this afternoon/evening
if sufficient heating and mesoscale organization of the clusters occur.

...Northern High Plains...

A large upper ridge is in place today over the High Plains region.
A southerly low-level jet is expected to intensify by early evening
as an upper trough approaches and low-level cyclogenesis occurs over
southeast MT. This should encourage the development of evening
thunderstorms across eastern MT tracking into western ND overnight.
It is unclear whether the bulk of these storms will be just west of
the warm sector and elevated, or will be surface-based. Regardless,
large hail is the primary concern.

...Southern Plains...

A weak upper low is tracking northeastward from west TX into
Oklahoma this morning. A band of stronger winds aloft to the east of
the low, coupled with pockets of daytime heating and ample moisture,
will promote damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest storms.

..Hart/Wendt.. 06/06/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 081204
SWODY1
SPC AC 081203

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0703 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO PARTS OF
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS....

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms with large to very large hail, severe wind
gusts potentially above 70 mph, and a few tornadoes will be possible
today from the Front Range east-southeastward into the central
Plains. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible in
parts of the southern High Plains, northern Plains and mid
Mississippi Valley. An isolated hail threat may develop toward the
end of the period in the northern High Plains.

...Eastern CO into Western NE/KS...

Relatively fast southwest flow aloft is present today from the
southwest states into the central Rockies. A surface low will
remain over southwest KS through the day, maintaining a stream of
easterly low-level winds and moist advection into eastern CO and
northwest KS. Daytime heating will further aid the westward
transport of moisture, resulting in an unstable air mass over the
foothills near Denver/CO Springs. Thunderstorms are expected to
develop in this corridor this afternoon, in an environment of steep
mid-level lapse rates, CAPE around 1000 J/kg, and favorable
deep-layer shear. Supercell structures capable of large hail will
be the main early threat. As this activity moves/builds eastward
into the Plains, it will encounter increasingly moist/unstable air
and strengthening low-level shear profiles by early evening. This
will promote a risk of a few supercell tornadoes, large hail, and
damaging winds. An upgrade to ENH risk may be needed in later
updates as clouds/daytime heating and affects of ongoing NE
convection is assessed.

By mid-evening, the activity is expected to be organizing upscale
into linear structures as it moves into southwest NE and northwest
KS. An increasing risk of damaging winds will likely develop, with
storms spreading eastward into the overnight hours.

...Northwest AR...

A cluster of intense thunderstorms is ongoing this morning over
southwest MO/northeast OK. This activity could continue to pose a
risk of isolated damaging wind gusts through the morning into
northwest AR before weakening later today.

...Southern KS/Northwest OK/TX Panhandle...

A dryline will become established this afternoon from the eastern TX
Panhandle to the surface low in south-central KS. Hot conditions
along/west of the dryline will help to initiate isolated
thunderstorms. These high-based cells could pose an occasional
threat of hail and damaging winds for a few hours.

...Eastern KS...

A moist and very unstable air mass will lie across eastern KS today
with CAPE values of 3000-4000 J/kg, but with a weak cap. CAM
guidance varies on the potential for afternoon/early evening
thunderstorms in this area, but enough 00z runs suggested a threat
to maintain the SLGT. Any storm that can form would pose a risk of
large hail and damaging winds.

...Southern IL/Western KY...

An upper trough continues to lift northeastward across the mid MS
valley today, with a moist/moderately unstable air mass present from
southern IL southward. Mid-level lapse rates are marginal for
severe storms, and winds aloft are modest. Nevertheless, veering winds-with-height and sufficient CAPE will pose an occasional risk
of strong storms capable of gusty winds or a tornado today.

..Hart/Wendt.. 06/08/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 121250
SWODY1
SPC AC 121248

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Valid 121300Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST
AND THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds are expected
across parts of the Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast,
mainly this afternoon and evening. Severe storms with a threat of
large hail and severe wind gusts will also be possible across parts
of the south-central High Plains.

...East including Appalachians to the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic...

A vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move over Quebec
later today, with some strengthening of westerlies aloft and weak
mid-level height falls to its south across parts of the Appalachians
and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States. The strongest deep-layer flow
will remain north of the international border, but modest effective
shear (generally 20-30 kt) will overlap relatively strong heating
and modest buoyancy across parts of the Northeast/Mid Atlantic.
Scattered outflow-driven clusters may develop with time and move
eastward, with an attendant threat of damaging wind and perhaps a
few instances of marginally severe hail.

Deep-layer flow/shear will be even weaker into parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas vicinity. However, very strong heating of a
moist airmass will support potential for scattered thunderstorms
with downburst potential, and eventual evolution into loosely
organized clusters capable of damaging outflow winds this afternoon
through at least the early evening hours.

...South-central High Plains...

Moist southerly low-level flow beneath steepening mid-level lapse
rates will result in robust destabilization from the Raton Mesa
vicinity into the adjacent south-central High Plains, with MLCAPE
increasing to near 2000 J/kg by late afternoon. Modest westerly
mid/upper-level flow will support effective shear of 30-40 kt
(highest values north), conditionally supportive of organized
convection. Large-scale ascent will remain subtle, but eventual
storms may develop by late afternoon near the higher terrain, and
spread east-southeastward with time.

Initial storms could evolve into isolated supercells, with a threat
of large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado.
Consolidating outflow and a nocturnally strengthening southerly
low-level jet will support some upscale growth during the evening,
with an attendant severe-wind threat expected to spread across parts
of the south-central High Plains, potentially including parts of
southern Kansas, western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle.

Farther south, more isolated strong to severe storms will be
possible across parts of central/eastern New Mexico into Far West
Texas, with a threat of isolated hail and localized severe gusts,
mainly late this afternoon through early evening.

...Central/eastern Nebraska and far western Iowa...

Elevated convection may develop late in the period, in the predawn
hours of Saturday, from parts of central/eastaen Nebraska into
western Iowa, within a warm-advection regime to the north of a warm
front. Guidance continues to vary regarding the magnitude of
elevated moistening/destabilization (which may be affected by MCS
development to the south across Kansas) and coverage of storms prior
to the end of the forecast period 12z Saturday. Effective shear will
be sufficient for at least modest storm organization and an isolated
hail threat, if sufficient destabilization can occur. Hail-related probabilities may ultimately be warranted for tonight, but will
defer an additional outlook cycle for additional
observational/upper-air data.

...Upper Midwest...

Relatively low-topped convection may develop late this afternoon
from the eastern Dakotas into Minnesota near/ahead of a cold front,
as low-level lapse rates steepen beneath seasonably cool
temperatures aloft. Robust west-northwesterly flow aloft will
conditionally favor some storm organization, if sufficient buoyancy
can develop. However, most guidance depicts MLCAPE generally below
500 J/kg, with an inconsistent signal for where the deepest
convection might develop. Some threat for marginal hail and/or
locally damaging wind could evolve across some part of this region,
and probabilities may be needed if confidence increases regarding
sufficient destabilization and storm coverage.

...Oklahoma/North Texas...

On the western/southern periphery of morning convection, robust
pulse-type thunderstorm redevelopment cannot be ruled out across
parts of southern Oklahoma and North Texas near outflow/surface
front. Moderate to strong buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear could
result in localized hail/wind, but it currently appears that
organized severe thunderstorm potential will remain low.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 06/12/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 141256
SWODY1
SPC AC 141254

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and
some hail are expected across the Upper Ohio River Valley and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States during the afternoon and evening.

...Upper Ohio Valley to New England...

A shortwave trough will steadily amplify over the Great Lakes with a
moderately strong belt of southwesterly mid-level flow across the
region. Near/ahead of the eastward-moving cold front, increasing
thunderstorm development is expected into the afternoon, increasing
in both coverage and intensity. Ample mid-level height falls and
around 40 kt of front-parallel effective shear could support a few initial/semi-discrete supercells prior to more prevalent
upscale-growing linear modes, with the primary concern being
damaging wind gusts. A brief tornado and/or hail could also occur
given the relative strength of the wind profiles.

...Mid-Atlantic to southern Appalachians/Carolinas...

Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of the cold front
during the afternoon, generally focusing on a pre-frontal trough as
well as high terrain/Blue Ridge vicinity, with some additional sea
breeze augmentations across the Carolinas/coastal plain. From
roughly southern/eastern Virginia southward, upper 60s to lower 70s
F dewpoints and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will
yield a corridor of strong surface-based buoyancy ahead of
storm development. Despite weaker deep-layer shear and limited
midlevel height falls with southward extent, the strongly unstable
air mass will favor eastward-moving thunderstorm clusters capable of
producing damaging wind gusts.

Somewhat stronger mid-level westerlies will reside over the
Mid-Atlantic region, contributing to 30-40 kt of effective shear
amid moderate surface-based buoyancy. This environment will support
several organized clusters capable of scattered damaging wind gusts,
and some locally higher concentrations of wind damage will be
possible with any longer-lived clusters that evolve.

...Southern High Plains...

Along the tail-end of a composite cold front/outflow boundary
extending westward into the southern Rockies/High Plains, widely
scattered thunderstorms will spread southeastward during the
afternoon. Given moist easterly low-level flow and 30-40 kt of
effective shear along the boundary, a couple loosely organized
storms will pose a risk of locally severe gusts and hail across
parts of eastern New Mexico and far west Texas. Additional storms
are expected along the boundary extending eastward across
northern/central Texas to the ArkLaTex, though weaker deep-layer
shear should limit storm longevity/organization.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 06/14/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 180551
SWODY1
SPC AC 180549

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KENTUCKY INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC...OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST...AND ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible from
Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic, with primarily damaging wind gusts or
marginal hail. Scattered severe storms are possible from upstate New
York into New England, with damaging gusts or even a tornado. A few
tornadoes may occur over parts of the Gulf Coast states, and
scattered storms may produce gusty winds or marginal hail from
Oklahoma into northwest Texas.

...From KY into the Mid Atlantic...

Moderate mid to high level westerlies will exist from the OH Valley
to Mid Atlantic, south of the primary wave over the Northeast. This
region will be south of the midlevel drying, with ample low-level
moisture remaining in place ahead of the slower moving portion of
the front. Scattered storms may be ongoing early in the day from KY
into WV, with perhaps wind or even tornado potential as SRH will be
high at that time. As heating occurs during the day, boundary layer
mixing as well as veering and weakening winds at 850 mb may reduce
tornado risk. However, ample deep-layer shear and nearly
unidirectional wind profiles will favor both cells and fast-moving
clusters of storms producing damaging gusts and locally severe hail
throughout the day.

...Northeast...

Within a broader area of cyclonic flow aloft, a leading shortwave
trough will move from the Lower Great Lakes into the Northeast, with
a 90 kt midlevel speed max and cooling aloft moving across NY and
parts of New England during the day. Low pressure will develop into
southern Quebec, with a cold front extending southward into the region.

Surface heating and gusty south winds will bring 60s F dewpoints
into the area with up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE expected. Relatively warm
profiles will develop near 300 mb, somewhat limiting storm depth.
However, ample midlevel cooling will still support sufficient
destabilization. Strong deep-layer shear and backed surface winds
ahead of the cold front will favor low-topped supercells. Cells
should develop over northern NY by 18Z, and will move quickly east,
producing marginal hail and sporadic damaging gusts initially. The
low EL height may mitigate hail production somewhat. By late
afternoon, a tornado or two will be possible as storms encounter a
stronger SRH environment farther east.

...Parts of MS/AL/GA/FL...

Wind fields associated with the remnants of Arthur will increase
from LA into GA today, as a weak surface low and midlevel wave move
across MS/AL/GA. This system will provide a focus for storms which
will spread northeast out of LA/MS into AL, the FL Panhandle, and
eventually into GA. Although temperatures aloft are warm, areas of
strong low-level shear and mid 70s F dewpoints will support
organized bands of storms, some with embedded stronger cells.
Transient supercells will be possible with localized tornado risk.
Storms are likely to be ongoing over southeast LA and southern MS at
the start of the period, and these will develop northeastward
throughout the day.

...OK into northwest TX...

An east-west oriented cold front will move southward across the TX
Panhandle, Oklahoma and northwest today, pushing well south of the
stronger westerlies aloft over the central Plains. The air mass
ahead of the front will feature 70s F dewpoints, while daytime
heating brings MUCAPE values into the 3000-4000 J/kg range. South of
this cold front, low pressure is forecast to develop over western TX
where the strongest heating will occur.

Isolated morning thunderstorms may be present from the KS/OK border
area eastward toward the Ozarks, and marginal hail cannot be ruled
out due to substantial elevated CAPE. Any storms that form near the
boundary as it moves south during the day may produce locally strong
gusts. The greatest risk of locally severe gusts or marginal hail
appears to be across southwest OK into northwest TX, where the front
will be more favorably timed with peak heating. Shear will be weak,
but extensive outflow is possible.

..Jewell/Weinman.. 06/18/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 211242
SWODY1
SPC AC 211240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Valid 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms should occur from the central High
Plains into the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys, mainly this
afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail, severe/damaging
winds (some 75+ mph), and tornadoes will all be possible. Some
potential for strong tornadoes may develop across parts of Missouri,
Illinois, and Indiana during the afternoon and evening.

...Central Plains to the Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys...
An MCS with a convectively augmented parent MCV extends from parts
of central MO into southeast KS/northern OK this morning. The
airmass downstream of this MCS across MO is not particularly
unstable, but greater low-level moisture and related instability is
present across northeast OK and vicinity. Current expectations are
for the MCS/MCV to continue eastward across the mid MS Valley and
Ozarks through the morning while posing an isolated threat for
severe/damaging winds. With time, some re-invigoration of the MCS
appears possible into the lower OH Valley as destabilization occurs
with daytime heating. Trailing outflow from the morning convection
will serve as a focus for additional thunderstorms later today as a compact/enhanced low-level jet moves eastward from the Ozarks into
the mid MS/lower OH Valleys.

There still appears to be potential for more robust thunderstorm
development this afternoon across these areas along and south of the
outflow boundary/front. Moderate instability will likely develop in
the presence of 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear, which will be
sufficient to support supercells. Enhanced low-level shear will also
be present owing to the eastward-migrating low-level jet. This will
foster a risk for tornadoes with any sustained supercells, and a
strong tornado appears possible. Considered greater tornado
probabilities and a categorical upgrade in a narrow corridor across
parts of MO/IL/IN, but there remains too much uncertainty regarding
sufficient destabilization in the wake of the morning activity. The severe/damaging wind threat will also increase, with the potential
for multiple clusters to form and track eastward into the lower OH
Valley through the evening and early overnight hours.

Convective development should also occur farther west along/near the
composite outflow boundary/front across the Ozarks into southern
KS/northern OK by peak afternoon heating. Strong instability and
moderate deep-layer shear will likely support updraft organization
and a mix of supercells and multicell clusters. Large to very large
hail should be the primary threat initially, but deep-layer shear
vectors aligned largely parallel to the boundary should foster
convective mergers and an increasing threat for severe/damaging
winds with multiple clusters that should form and spread
east-southeastward across OK and the Ozarks through the evening. At
least an isolated severe wind threat may persist overnight with
southward extent across the southern Plains into AR given the large
degree of buoyancy forecast.

A mid-level shortwave trough over WY this morning will move
east-southeastward towards the central High Plains by this
afternoon. Enhanced westerly flow aloft attendant to this shortwave
trough will overspread the central High Plains through the day. A
convectively reinforced front extends from northwest OK into the
central High Plains, and modest low-level upslope flow is forecast
to the north of this boundary today. Recent short-term guidance
continues to suggest that moderate instability will develop with
filtered daytime heating in the presence of steep mid-level lapse
rates and strong effective bulk shear. Isolated supercells that can
develop in this regime across eastern CO into western NE/KS should
pose mainly a large to isolated very large (2+ inches) hail risk
initially, before some clustering/upscale growth possibly occurs
this evening. Scattered severe/damaging winds would become an
increasing concern if this mode transition occurs, and isolated
significant gusts (75+ mph) appear possible.

..Gleason/Broyles.. 06/21/2026

$$


--- ScorpioWeb v0.33a (Linux/x86_64)
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 221240
SWODY1
SPC AC 221238

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds
and perhaps a couple of tornadoes should occur mainly this afternoon
and evening across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast.
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are also expected across the northern/central High Plains, with large to very large hail the main threat.

...ArkLaTex into the Mid-South and Southeast...

A weakened but persistent MCS continues this morning across AR into
northeast TX. This cluster will track east-southeastward towards the
lower MS Valley over the next few hours while gradually weakening.
But, it should still pose some risk for isolated to widely scattered
damaging winds in the short term. The convectively augmented MCV
attendant to the ongoing MCS will also move east-northeastward
across the lower MS Valley and Mid-South/central Gulf Coast states
through the day. Gradual destabilization of a rather moist low-level
airmass (surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s) should
occur, even with widespread cloudiness hampering daytime heating to
some extent. Modestly enhanced westerly mid-level flow associated
with the MCV and broad upper troughing over the eastern CONUS should
support sufficient deep-layer shear for modest updraft organization.
Multiple clusters and perhaps marginal supercells capable of
producing mainly scattered damaging winds should develop along/south
of a front this afternoon, and spread eastward across much of the
Southeast through at least the early evening. A tornado or two may
also occur in close proximity to the MCV track, but low-level flow
is forecast to be fairly veered and modest.

...Mid-Atlantic...

A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward today from the OH
Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Recent visible satellite imagery shows
fairly expansive cloud cover over much of the northern Mid-Atlantic,
with clearer skies farther south into southern VA and vicinity. 12Z
observed soundings across this region show poor lapse rates aloft,
which should hamper any more than weak instability developing this
afternoon, even with filtered daytime heating. Still, strengthening
mid-level westerly winds and large-scale ascent preceding the
shortwave trough will likely encourage scattered to numerous
thunderstorms to develop this afternoon across the higher terrain of
the central Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. These multicell
clusters should pose a threat for mainly scattered damaging winds as
they spread east-northeastward towards the Atlantic Coast through
the afternoon and evening. Marginal hail may occur with the
strongest cores. A couple of tornadoes appear possible along/near a
sharpening warm front in the MD/PA/NJ/DE vicinity, where low-level
shear may become locally enhanced.

...Northern/Central High Plains...

Within a generally zonal mid-level pattern, isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and
evening across parts of the northern/central High Plains in a modest
low-level upslope flow regime. Moderate instability will be aided by
the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, and 40-50 kt of
deep-layer shear will easily support supercells with an attendant
threat for large to very large hail. These supercells may be fairly
widely spaced, but will likely track south-southeastward through at
least the early evening before weakening. A couple of tornadoes may
occur with these supercells, particularly across parts of the NE
Panhandle into northeast CO, where the best combination of low-level
moisture, effective SRH, and favorable convective mode should
overlap for a few hours. Latest short-term guidance continues to
show low potential for upscale growth/MCS development tonight, but
trends will be monitored.

..Gleason/Bunting.. 06/22/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 251250
SWODY1
SPC AC 251248

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms should develop today across parts of
the southern/central Plains, with large hail and severe/damaging
winds possible. A more focused corridor of tornado potential should
exist this afternoon/evening across northern Oklahoma and southern
Kansas, where a strong tornado may occur.

...Southern/Central Plains into the Ozarks...

Severe potential today across the southern/central Plains will be
heavily influenced by ongoing convection this morning extending from
western KS into northeast OK. These thunderstorms are largely tied
to modest warm/moist advection at low levels, evidenced by recent
VWPs across this area (KDDC/KVNX/KINX) and the 12Z observed OUN
sounding. Latest surface analysis indicates a weak surface low is
present across southeast CO, with a front extending eastward from
this low across KS. A secondary boundary/warm front was also
analyzed along/near the KS/OK border, with generally 70s surface
dewpoints and greater instability present to its south. The
thunderstorms across western KS have recently strengthened, with
evidence of a leading supercell and some attempt at clustering just
to its west with a possible/developing MCV circulation. This
activity may pose at least an isolated hail/wind threat through the
morning as it tracks eastward across southern KS. But, it may tend
to remain somewhat elevated to the north of the warm front.
Accordingly, the overall severe threat with this convection is
uncertain. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 1307 for more details on
the short-term severe threat across KS.

The net effect of the morning convection may be to reinforce the
boundary across northern OK/southern KS. Most guidance continues to
suggest that a narrow corridor of moderate to strong instability
will exist this afternoon from southeast CO (to the east of the weak
surface low) east-southeastward into southern KS/northern OK.
Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated across this area
later today as a weak mid-level shortwave trough ejects eastward
over the central High Plains. With strong deep-layer shear expected,
initial supercells should pose a threat for large hail and severe
gusts. But, convective mode will probably tend to become mixed/messy
quickly, as thunderstorms interact/merge with each other. Low-level
shear is forecast to markedly increase near the surface boundary
across southern KS/northern OK through the afternoon and evening as
a southerly low-level jet strengthens. Elongated/curved hodographs
suggest a threat for a few tornadoes will exist, especially with any thunderstorms that can remain at least semi-discrete. And given the
enhanced effective SRH near the boundary, a strong tornado appears
possible if a supercell mode can be maintained.

Higher-based convection should develop farther south into the
southern High Plains this afternoon, where a more deeply mixed
airmass suggests a greater threat for scattered severe/damaging
winds. But, some hail could also occur with the stronger cores. This
activity should tend to cluster and spread eastward across northwest
TX, the OK/TX Panhandles, and eventually into western OK this
evening, while continuing to pose mainly a severe wind threat before
eventually weakening.

...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and New York...

50-60 kt mid-level westerly flow will spread eastward across the
Midwest/OH Valley into the central Appalachians through this evening
as an upper-level trough moves eastward over the Great Lakes. A weak
surface low should also develop eastward over the lower Great Lakes
today, with a cold front advancing east-southeastward across the
Midwest/OH Valley. Surface dewpoints generally range in the 50s to
low 60s ahead of the front this morning. Coupled with poor mid lapse
rates aloft and ongoing cloudiness, instability that develops by
this afternoon may tend to remain somewhat limited. Even so, strong
deep-layer shear associated with the mid-level jet will aid in
updraft organization, with a mix of multicell clusters and possibly
some marginal supercell structures developing this afternoon
along/ahead of the front. Isolated severe hail and damaging winds
both appear possible, and a tornado or two may also occur across
parts of OH into western/central PA and western NY where slightly
stronger low-level flow and related shear should exist. Confidence
in stronger instability and a greater severe risk remains too low
for higher hail/wind probabilities with this update.

...Utah into Wyoming and Montana...

Similar to yesterday, fairly high-based showers and thunderstorms
should develop this afternoon across the eastern Great Basin. With a
well-mixed boundary layer forecast with daytime heating, the main
threat with most of this activity should be isolated severe winds
with outflow-dominant convection as it spreads from UT into WY this
afternoon and evening. Some chance for occasional hail may also
exist farther north in southeast ID, WY, and parts of MT, where
cooler temperatures aloft, stronger mid-level flow/deep-layer shear,
and pockets of greater instability should support more robust
convection.

..Gleason/Jewell.. 06/25/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 261648
SWODY1
SPC AC 261647

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Valid 261630Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS TO OZARKS AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AS WELL AS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorm development is expected today,
particularly this afternoon into tonight across parts of the Ozark
Plateau to Lower Ohio Valley and across parts of the northern and
central High Plains to the Black Hills vicinity. Other severe storms
are expected across portions of New England.

...Ozarks and Lower Ohio Valley...

Multiple eastward-moving MCVs remain evident regionally in
observational data at midday, probably strongest across southeast
Missouri, but also the Oklahoma/Arkansas border vicinity and
northern Kentucky. A related observed enhancement to the
low/mid-level flow will persists from the Ozarks/Bootheel
east-northeastward parallel to the Ohio River, but cloud
cover/scattered precipitation remains fairly prevalent regionally as
well. Peripheral cloud breaks and insolation should allow for
gradual destabilization, particularly on the south/southwest fringes
of this early day activity. This should lead to severe storm
development into mid/late afternoon through the evening, potentially
including supercells given the flow enhancement. A couple of
tornadoes could occur aside from wind damage.

...High Plains...

A seasonably anomalous upper trough will continue to amplify and
spread eastward over the Pacific Northwest toward the Great Basin
and Intermountain West, with a lead disturbance ejecting
northeastward toward the northern High Plains. Pronounced lee
troughing is forecast with a surface low expected to evolve over
central and southeast Montana through tonight. A corridor of at
least weak to moderate boundary-layer destabilization is expected
across the High Plains. Strengthening large-scale ascent and ample
vertical shear downstream of the digging large-scale troughing will
favor organized severe thunderstorm development late this afternoon
through evening. Supercells and evolving organized clusters will
pose a risk for large hail and severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado.
Across the central into southern High Plains, isolated to widely
scattered storms will likely develop/mature and propagate east
during the evening. Hail and wind are the primary hazards with this
activity and this severe risk will probably linger into the late evening.

...New England...

Have introduced a Slight Risk for portions of the region, primarily
focused near the advancing surface low/warm front. A shortwave
trough over Ontario/Lower Great Lakes will move east across New
England by this evening. Cloud cover, albeit abating this afternoon,
will limit the overall magnitude of destabilization, but upwards of
1000-1500 J/kg SBCAPE are forecast to develop along/south of a warm
front. Elongated hodographs beneath a 100+ kt 250-mb speed max will
aid in storm organization in the form of possibly a couple of
supercells and organized multicells. Isolated coverage of large hail
and damaging gusts are the primary risks with the stronger
thunderstorms, but the moist environment and low-level shear/SRH
could yield a tornado threat.

...Mid-Atlantic States to Carolinas...

The southern periphery of stronger mid to high-level westerly flow
is forecast across the region, atop northward-shifting low-level
moisture that is richest across the Carolinas into southern
Virginia, where near/above 70 F surface dewpoints are prevalent. The
overlap of moderate westerly flow and weak destabilization is
expected to support scattered thunderstorms capable of strong to
locally severe/damaging gusts (50-60 mph). Additional sea-breeze
influenced locally severe storms may occur across the coastal plain
of the Carolinas.

..Guyer/Supinie.. 06/26/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 262002
SWODY1
SPC AC 262000

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Valid 262000Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY...AND PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorm development is expected today,
particularly this afternoon into tonight across parts of the
southern Plains to Lower Ohio Valley and across parts of the
northern and central High Plains to the Black Hills vicinity. Other
severe storms are expected across portions of New England.

...20Z Update...
The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made with
this update.

The SLGT risk in the central High Plains was expanded southeastward
from southeast CO into southwest KS and parts of the OK/TX
Panhandles. Guidance is in relatively good agreement, depicting
thunderstorms evolving off the Raton Mesa and tracking
east-southeastward along a gradient of rich boundary-layer
moisture/moderate surface-based buoyancy this evening/tonight. Aided
by 40 kt of effective shear and increasing low-level hodograph
curvature amid a strengthening nocturnal LLJ, supercell clusters
will pose a risk for severe gusts, large hail, and possibly a tornado.

Farther east, a minor westward expansion of the SLGT risk was made
into north-central OK. Ample diurnal heating/destabilization of a
very moist air mas (middle/upper 70s dewpoints) is yielding strong surface-based buoyancy along an east/west-oriented surface boundary.
Current thinking is that a few organized clusters/supercells
developing along the boundary will be capable of producing severe
wind gusts and large hail later this afternoon/evening.

..Weinman.. 06/26/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1147 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026/

...Ozarks and Lower Ohio Valley...

Multiple eastward-moving MCVs remain evident regionally in
observational data at midday, probably strongest across southeast
Missouri, but also the Oklahoma/Arkansas border vicinity and
northern Kentucky. A related observed enhancement to the
low/mid-level flow will persists from the Ozarks/Bootheel
east-northeastward parallel to the Ohio River, but cloud
cover/scattered precipitation remains fairly prevalent regionally as
well. Peripheral cloud breaks and insolation should allow for
gradual destabilization, particularly on the south/southwest fringes
of this early day activity. This should lead to severe storm
development into mid/late afternoon through the evening, potentially
including supercells given the flow enhancement. A couple of
tornadoes could occur aside from wind damage.

...High Plains...

A seasonably anomalous upper trough will continue to amplify and
spread eastward over the Pacific Northwest toward the Great Basin
and Intermountain West, with a lead disturbance ejecting
northeastward toward the northern High Plains. Pronounced lee
troughing is forecast with a surface low expected to evolve over
central and southeast Montana through tonight. A corridor of at
least weak to moderate boundary-layer destabilization is expected
across the High Plains. Strengthening large-scale ascent and ample
vertical shear downstream of the digging large-scale troughing will
favor organized severe thunderstorm development late this afternoon
through evening. Supercells and evolving organized clusters will
pose a risk for large hail and severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado.
Across the central into southern High Plains, isolated to widely
scattered storms will likely develop/mature and propagate east
during the evening. Hail and wind are the primary hazards with this
activity and this severe risk will probably linger into the late evening.

...New England...

Have introduced a Slight Risk for portions of the region, primarily
focused near the advancing surface low/warm front. A shortwave
trough over Ontario/Lower Great Lakes will move east across New
England by this evening. Cloud cover, albeit abating this afternoon,
will limit the overall magnitude of destabilization, but upwards of
1000-1500 J/kg SBCAPE are forecast to develop along/south of a warm
front. Elongated hodographs beneath a 100+ kt 250-mb speed max will
aid in storm organization in the form of possibly a couple of
supercells and organized multicells. Isolated coverage of large hail
and damaging gusts are the primary risks with the stronger
thunderstorms, but the moist environment and low-level shear/SRH
could yield a tornado threat.

...Mid-Atlantic States to Carolinas...

The southern periphery of stronger mid to high-level westerly flow
is forecast across the region, atop northward-shifting low-level
moisture that is richest across the Carolinas into southern
Virginia, where near/above 70 F surface dewpoints are prevalent. The
overlap of moderate westerly flow and weak destabilization is
expected to support scattered thunderstorms capable of strong to
locally severe/damaging gusts (50-60 mph). Additional sea-breeze
influenced locally severe storms may occur across the coastal plain
of the Carolinas.

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 281246
SWODY1
SPC AC 281244

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE DAKOTAS
AND PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA AND IOWA AND PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible this morning over northern Iowa
and southern Minnesota, and mainly tonight across the Dakotas. Large
to very large hail and severe winds are the primary hazards.
Thunderstorms capable of scattered wind damage are possible in parts
of the Carolinas.

...Dakotas to IA/WI through tonight...
Radar mosaic this morning shows a bow echo moving eastward along the
MN/IA border primarily north of a buoyancy gradient/warm frontal
zone. Occasional severe gusts (60-70 mph) have been observed with
this MCS the past couple of hours. Expecting more of an
east-southeastward motion with the linear system with a continued
risk for wind damage before perhaps weakening near the MS River
towards midday/early afternoon.

Farther west, a belt of south-southwesterly midlevel flow near 50 kt
will be maintained from CO to the Dakotas, east of the broad closed
low over the northern Great Basin/Rockies. A separate lee cyclone
is expected to form in the vicinity of northeast CO this afternoon
and then progress northeastward across NE/SD overnight. In the wake
of the morning storms, richer low-level moisture will advect
northward in tandem with a warm front. Model guidance continues to
delay storm development for much of the day as an EML overspreads a destabilizing airmass across the north-central US. A few storms
will be possible in ND during the afternoon with perhaps an isolated
severe risk developing.

Much of the severe threat will likely focus after dark immediately
north of the lee cyclone into SD. Westward advection of richer
moisture and ascent preceding the surface cyclone (and subtle
embedded speed maxima aloft) will likely support elevated
thunderstorm development overnight across western SD into southern
ND. The environment will favor elevated supercells and small
thunderstorm clusters capable of large to very large hail and severe gusts.

Farther east, a zone of low-level warm advection will be focused
across WI by late evening/early tonight along the northeast edge of
the warm elevated mixed layer. Sufficient moistening above the
surface and large CAPE will favor the potential for at least
isolated large hail/strong gusts with largely elevated storms tonight.

...Carolinas/southern VA this afternoon/evening...
A convectively augmented mid-level disturbance over the southern
Appalachians will move into the Piedmont by this afternoon. A moist
airmass sampled by area 12 UTC raobs (PW near 2 inches) will
heat/destabilize to the south of a patch of clouds more prevalent
over western NC. By early to mid afternoon, steepened 0-2 km lapse
rates and a belt of slightly stronger westerly 3-6 km flow (30 kt)
may act to loosely organize cold pools of developing thunderstorm
clusters. Isolated to scattered wind damage (50-60 mph gusts) will
be the primary hazard with the more intense water-loaded
thunderstorm cores.

...West TX late this afternoon/evening...
Strong surface heating and deep mixing along a sharpening dryline
will allow high-based thunderstorm development from late afternoon
through late evening. Flow aloft will be weak, but inverted-V
profiles will favor isolated severe outflow gusts of 60-75 mph.

..Smith/Jewell.. 06/28/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 051246
SWODY1
SPC AC 051245

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC...NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND NORTHWEST/WEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered wind damage is possible with thunderstorms across the
Mid-Atlantic this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail
and damaging gusts may occur with thunderstorms in North Dakota with occurrences of hail and damaging winds possible from west into
northwest Texas as well.

...Upper Ohio Valley into Mid-Atlantic and Carolina Piedmont...
Early morning surface analysis places a low over northwest OH, along
a diffuse west to east oriented cold front extending from IA through
PA and NJ. Expectation is for this low to gradually shift eastward
just ahead of slow-moving shortwave trough. Thunderstorm development
is anticipated in the vicinity of this low as well as along the cold
front, forced predominantly by low-level convergence, across the
Upper OH Valley. Lapse rates will be poor, but warm and moist
surface conditions will still support modest buoyancy and the
potential for strong updrafts. Vertical shear is weak so storm
organization will be limited, but a few bowing segments are still
possible given the potential for strong cold pools. Highest
likelihood for a few stronger gusts will be across eastern PA and NJ
where slightly stronger mid-level flow exists.

Modest lee troughing is expected from central MD southwestward
through the Carolina Piedmont. Diurnal airmass destabilization is
anticipated in the vicinity of this troughing, supported by very
warm and moist conditions (i.e. temperatures in the upper 90s and
dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s). Afternoon thunderstorms are
expected along this troughing, with moderate to strong buoyancy
(i.e. MLCAPE from 1500 to 2500 J/kg) supporting strong updrafts and
potential water loading. Vertical shear will be weak, so the
expectation is for outflow-dominant multicell storms to merge into
clusters or line segments. The hot, well-mixed PBL and resultant,
steep low-level lapse rates will enhance the damaging wind potential
from mid afternoon into evening. Damaging wind potential is expected
to be more sporadic with southward extent into the Carolinas owing
to more limited storm coverage.

...Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains...
Steep mid-level lapse rates are forecast to spread
eastward/northeastward from the northern Rockies into the northern
Plains, ahead of a shortwave trough progressing through southern
British Columbia and Alberta. The boundary layer will be relatively
warm and modestly dry, but, given the steep mid-level lapse rates in
place, airmass destabilization is still anticipated. Height falls
associated with the shortwave will augment convergence along a cold
front to provide the lift needed for thunderstorm development in
western ND after the airmass destabilizes. There should be enough
vertical shear in place to support organized storm structures
capable of large hail and damaging gusts.

Thunderstorm development also appears possible farther west across
MT closer to the shortwave trough. These storms are expected to be
high based atop a well-mixed boundary layer with severe wind gusts
being the predominant hazard.

...Southern High Plains into east TX...
An outflow boundary from the overnight storms in OK currently arcs
from east-central TX (near LFK) northwestward to near MWL and into
west TX where it intersects a low east of LUB. Thunderstorm
development appears likely along this boundary once the airmass
diurnally destabilizes this afternoon. Highest coverage is
anticipated from west into northwest TX, with more isolated to
widely scattered coverage expected farther east. Vertical shear will
be weak, resulting in an outflow-dominant storm structure. High
storm bases and a deeply mixed boundary layer should result in
strong cold pools across west/northwest TX, with cold pool
amalgamation perhaps resulting a greater potential for damaging
gusts than farther east.

...Lower MS Valley into AL...
A very moist airmass will support diurnal destabilization and
moderate to strong buoyancy this afternoon from the Lower MS Valley
eastward into AL. Remnant MCS and associated vorticity maximum
currently moving across northern LA are forecast to continue eastward/southeastward, with a second, smaller convective cluster
also continuing across northern/central AL. These features will
interact with the moist and unstable airmass this afternoon,
supporting thunderstorm development. Vertical shear will be weak and
a predominantly outflow-dominant multicellular mode is anticipated.
Some stronger gusts are possible via water-loaded downbursts and/or
occasional bowing segments.

..Mosier/Dean.. 07/05/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 071237
SWODY1
SPC AC 071235

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered to scattered severe storms capable of large hail
and severe wind gusts are possible from the northern High Plains
into parts of the Upper Midwest today into tonight. Isolated severe
storms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts are possible this
afternoon and evening from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the
Carolinas, the Sabine River Valley, parts of the Great Basin, and
southeast Arizona.

...Northern High Plains into the Upper Midwest..
A large area of showers and thunderstorms is currently moving
northeastward across eastern MT and western ND. This activity, which
appears to be associated with a weak lead shortwave trough, is
forecast to continue northeastward/eastward throughout the day.
Storm severity will be limited by a lack of buoyancy and stronger
ascent. However, cloud cover associated with this activity will aid
in sharpening a warm front that is expected to develop as the cold
front, which moved across SD last night, returns northward amid
low-level moisture advection ahead of a stronger shortwave trough.

Thunderstorms are first expected to develop back farther west across
the northern High Plains, where moist easterly upslope flow combined
with steep mid-level lapse will foster airmass destabilization.
Moderate to strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE 1000 to 2000 J/kg) and
moderate deep-layer shear (i.e. effective bulk shear of 40 to 50 kt)
will support the potential for a few supercells capable of large
hail and damaging gusts. One or more bowing segments could evolve
from these supercells, with at least some potential for stronger,
more organized line capable of gust over 70 mph to move across SD.
However, confidence in a corridor of greater severe potential is
currently limited, owing to the likelihood of complex interactions
between outflows and new storm development over the MT/WY/SD border intersection vicinity.

Thunderstorm development also appears probable farther east along
the warm front during the evening as the low-level jet increases.
Large to very large hail is possible with this activity initially,
before upscale growth results in bowing clusters.

Additional storms are possible near the lee trough from southeast WY
into northeast CO and the NE Panhandle during the afternoon into
evening. The local environment will feature a deep and well-mixed
boundary layer, which will support the potential for a few severe
wind gusts and perhaps some hail.

...Great Basin...
A modest shortwave trough is forecast to move through northeast NV
and northern UT this afternoon and evening. Modest mid-level
moisture and lift associated with this wave will support isolated to
widely scatted thunderstorms atop a deep and well-mixed boundary
layer. Modest updrafts and high cloud bases atop very steep
low-level lapse rates will support locally severe wind gusts with
the strongest storms.

...Southern AZ...
Increased mid-level moisture will support thunderstorm development
across the higher terrain of eastern AZ during the afternoon. Modest
easterly mid-level flow is expected over the region, with some
potential for the thunderstorms to progress westward into the lower
elevations during the late afternoon. A few strong gusts are possible.

...East Texas into the Sabine River Valley...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a broad upper low centered
over the Mid-South, with a weak vorticity maximum pivoting through
its southwest periphery over southern AR/northern LA. A few
thunderstorms are ongoing in the vicinity of this vorticity maximum,
with a gradual increase in thunderstorm coverage later this morning
through the afternoon as ascent from this vorticity maximum
interacts with the moist and unstable airmass in place. Vertical
shear is weak but some loosely organized cold pools may evolve,
supporting the potential for sporadic damaging wind gusts.

...Southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas...
A moist and moderately unstable air mass is expected to support
scattered thunderstorm development across the region, beginning over
the Blue Ridge Mountains during the early afternoon and expanding
southward along the weak lee troughing into the central Carolinas.
Some sea breeze development is possible from the VA Tidewater along
the coastal Carolinas as well. Vertical shear will remain weak,
limiting the potential for storm organization. Even so, the presence
of steep low-level lapse rates will enhance downdraft potential,
leading to the risk for sporadic damaging wind occurrences,
especially with any storm clusters.

..Mosier/Thornton.. 07/07/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 101234
SWODY1
SPC AC 101232

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE OZARKS INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered
severe/damaging winds and occasional hail will be possible this
afternoon and evening from parts of the southern/central High Plains
to the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley.

...Southern/Central High Plains...
Mid-level heights should slowly rise today as an upper ridge builds
over the western CONUS. Still, high-based thunderstorms are forecast
to form across the higher terrain of the southern/central High
Plains this afternoon in a weak low-level upslope regime. The
airmass farther east into western KS may tend to remain capped, but
sufficient instability should exist to support surface-based
thunderstorms with an associated threat for scattered
severe/damaging winds from southeast CO into northeast NM and parts
of the OK/TX Panhandles. This should especially be the case where
strong daytime heating steepens low-level lapse rates through deep
mixing of the boundary layer. Have adjusted the Slight Risk westward
a bit across the southern/central High Plains with this update, in
line with recent model guidance showing the more favored corridor
for severe gusts this afternoon/evening. Isolated hail may also
occur with the stronger cores given moderate deep-layer shear, but
the tendency for clustering/quick upscale growth suggests that
severe winds should be the primary threat.

...Ozarks to the Mid Mississippi Valley...
A well-defined MCV remains clearly evident on regional radar and
satellite imagery this morning along the NE/KS border. This MCV will
likely develop east-northeastward into southern IA/northern MO by
this afternoon. A small cluster ongoing across central MO may
continue to pose a threat for severe/damaging winds in the short
term. (See Mesoscale Discussion 1572 for more details.) Otherwise, a convectively reinforced front to the MCV's south should serve as a
focus for renewed thunderstorm development later today as the
seasonably moist airmass across the Ozarks into the mid MS Valley
gradually destabilizes. Moderate to locally strong instability
coupled with modestly enhanced mid-level westerly flow and
sufficient deep-layer shear should promote organized severe
convection, including the potential for supercells. Both large hail
and severe/damaging winds may occur with this initially discrete
activity, before a tendency for clustering results in a greater risk
for damaging winds with eastward extent into the Ozarks/mid MS
Valley through this evening. Some adjustments have been made to the
Slight Risk across these regions based on latest guidance and
observational trends.

...Tennessee Valley/Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic/Ohio Valley...
An MCV which developed from earlier convection across the mid MS Valley/Mid-South has slowly moved eastward across the lower OH
Valley early this morning, with a trailing flank of thunderstorms
over the Mid-South/TN Valley being aided by a west-southwesterly
low-level jet. This feature is forecast to track generally eastward
through the day, and may aid additional convective development later
today across parts of the southern Appalachians into the Carolinas.
While deep-layer shear will remain modest, moderate instability
developing over lower elevation locations should support some risk
for damaging winds with multicell clusters that spread eastward this afternoon/evening. A somewhat separate area of thunderstorm
development is also forecast farther north across parts of the
Mid-Atlantic/OH Valley where multiple weak mid-level perturbations
should develop eastward in generally zonal flow aloft. While
mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear will be slightly
stronger across this region compared to areas farther south,
instability should be weaker. Regardless, occasional strong/damaging
winds may occur with any thunderstorm clusters that can develop
along/south of a front this afternoon across the Mid-Atlantic/OH Valley.

...Western Florida Peninsula...
Mid-level ridging extending from the western Atlantic over the FL
Peninsula is forecast to move little today, with weak winds aloft
forecast. Most guidance continues to suggest that thunderstorms will
develop this afternoon along the Gulf Coast sea breeze across parts
of the western FL Peninsula in a moderately to strongly unstable
environment. Rich low-level moisture characterized by total PWAT
values around 2 inches coupled with steepened low-level lapse rates
due to diurnal heating may support isolated strong to severe
downdraft winds with the more robust cores that develop this afternoon.

...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest...
Upper ridging will become more prominent today over much of the
Southwest/Great Basin northeastward into the northern Plains and
central Canada. Even so, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may
develop this afternoon along/near a weak front from parts of eastern
SD and vicinity into western MN. Mid-level north-northwesterly flow
should remain weak to modest across this region, which will limit
deep-layer shear and overall updraft organization. Still, a signal
for isolated gusty winds/hail with loosely organized clusters
remains apparent, if convection can form.

..Gleason/Thornton.. 07/10/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 121233
SWODY1
SPC AC 121232

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Valid 121300Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND
THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated to scattered
severe/damaging winds may occur this afternoon/evening across parts
of the Carolinas/Southeast into the southern Plains, and separately
over southern/central Arizona. Large hail and severe winds also
appear possible over portions of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.

...Carolinas/Southeast into the Southern Plains...
Multiple rounds of thunderstorms over the past couple of days have
convectively overturned the moist airmass across the Carolinas.
Cloud cover is also a bit more prevalent this morning across this
region per recent visible satellite imagery, with a weak surface
front extending generally east-west across NC. This cloudiness may
tend to delay/hinder daytime heating and related steepening of
low-level lapse rates to some extent. But, filtered heating through
cloud breaks and the presence of low to mid 70s surface dewpoints
should still aid in at least weak to moderate instability developing
south of the front by mid afternoon. Current expectations are for
scattered thunderstorms to once again develop this afternoon over
the higher terrain of the Appalachians and vicinity as a weak
mid-level trough/shear zone spreads slowly eastward from the TN
Valley to the Carolinas by this evening. While deep-layer shear will
remain modest, this convection should spread generally eastward,
with some potential for loosely organized clusters capable of
producing isolated to scattered damaging winds. Severe wind
probabilities have been generally adjusted southward based on latest observational and guidance trends. Thunderstorms developing this
afternoon along/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze across the FL
Peninsula may also pose an isolated severe/damaging wind threat.

Farther west into the lower MS Valley and southern Plains,
deep-layer flow/shear is expected to remain rather weak. While
thunderstorms will occur along/south of a convectively reinforced
boundary, they should generally remain quite limited in
organization. Still, a risk for locally severe/damaging winds may
exist this afternoon as temperatures warm and the moist low-level
airmass south of the boundary destabilizes with daytime heating.

...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...
Upper ridging is expected to build northward through the period
across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, with an EML and associated
steep mid-level lapse rates advecting eastward across the upper
Great Lakes. Diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass and the
presence of the EML will support moderate to locally strong
instability across this region by early afternoon. Modest
west-southwesterly low-level flow will veer strongly with height
through mid/upper levels to north-northwesterly, aiding 30-40+ kt of
deep-layer shear.

The potential for southward-moving supercells capable of producing
both large hail and severe/damaging winds remains apparent,
especially across the U.P of MI with multiple supercells already
ongoing across northern Lake Superior/Isle Royale this morning.
There is still some uncertainty whether these supercells can be
sustained with southward extent, as temperatures are forecast to
gradually warm through the day in the 850-700 mb layer in tandem
with the EML. Regardless, the ongoing severe thunderstorms this
morning, coupled with potential for additional robust convection
spreading southeastward from western Ontario later today, justify
greater severe hail/wind probabilities across parts of the U.P of
MI. Isolated 2+ inch diameter hail appears possible given the strong
deep-layer shear, steepening mid-level lapse rates, and expected
supercell mode.

...Arizona...
Mid/upper-level ridging will remain prominent today over the Rockies
and Plains, with around 20-30 kt of easterly mid-level flow
persisting over AZ/NM. Ongoing showers and thunderstorms this
morning will shift westward through the day, with ample daytime
heating still anticipated for much of southern/central AZ. The
boundary layer will become very well mixed by mid afternoon as
surface temperatures reach into the 90s/low 100s. Orographic lift
should aid parcels in reaching their LFCs over the higher terrain
along the Mogollon Rim and in southeast AZ. The modestly enhanced
easterly mid-level flow should aid this activity in spreading
generally westward into the lower elevations of southern/central AZ
through the remainder of the afternoon and continuing into the
evening. Scattered severe/damaging winds will likely be the main
threat given steepened low-level lapse rates and efficient momentum
transfer in convective downdrafts. Some potential for clustering may
exist, and the severe wind probabilities have been expanded westward
across more of southern/central AZ with this update.

...Montana...
The potential for locally strong/gusty winds may exist this
afternoon with high-based convection that could spread from
southwest into northern MT on the northwestern periphery of the
amplified upper ridge over the Rockies/Plains. Confidence in
sustained thunderstorms developing along/ahead of a weak front
across this region remains rather low due to limited low-level
moisture and capping concerns, so severe wind probabilities have not
been introduced at this time.

..Gleason/Thornton.. 07/12/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)